Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.
Interested to see if Congress can exert enough pressure to actually make this work (sending F-16's): https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/bipartisan-house-push-for-u-s-to-send-jets-to-ukraine-164096581719

cinci zoo sniper posted:

It's a joke post.
Oof, thought the joke was just the content rather than location.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Was fine, for that statement on the last page at least. :v:

More seriously speaking, it's fine, and statements themselves from him or various other Z-bloggers and propagandists are also in themselves fine. What I'm not a fan of the more repetitive genre of posting that can be reduced “lmao they're dumb” or “wow they're evil”, when you start cycling that stuff as this weird Kremlin scryer porn or whatever even would the term be here. But that has to be a pattern of behaviour, and there are plenty of genuinely interesting conversations to be had around significant messaging changes seen in Girkin's or similar programming. Especially with the ascendant, as there must be quite the Hunger Games going in the army and the security circles.

It's a joke post.

I'm glad that Girkin's posts are allowed at least (personally, I could do with or without Solovyov and Simonyan, they are largely wind bags) because I have always interpreted Girkin to be the mouthpiece of the FSB in the Kremlin's internal posting wars. Wagner has Prigozhin doing the PR himself, and I guess the RU Ministry of Defense is represented by a combination of Peskov and MoD releases, with..I guess Kadyrov being the mouthpiece for the hardliners? This reminds me a lot of the same kind of Kremlinology that was everywhere in the Cold War. I lived in RU, have degrees in this area, speak Russian, and what the Kremlin is doing is still largely a mystery. I have no idea how people did it in the past without the flow of information we have now

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




HonorableTB posted:

I'm glad that Girkin's posts are allowed at least

It's getting late for me to reply to the full post, but I want to address the start of it, as it makes it seem like there's a ream of topics forbidden to post about. Maybe I'm reading too much into your phrasing, but if it's not restricted in the thread rules, you can just post it without reservation*. Furthermore, the language of the rules is deliberate, e.g., “discouraged” does explicitly not mean “forbidden”.


* common sense and D&D/SA rules still apply

fizzy
Dec 2, 2022

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Round-up of news of the day

President of Ukraine

quote:

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/nam-potribni-suchasni-bojovi-litaki-shob-ubezpechiti-vid-ros-81333

We need modern combat aircraft to protect the entire territory of Ukraine from Russian terror - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
27 February 2023 - 22:07
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

A brief report on this day.

The day began with an attack by Iranian drones. Most of them were shot down. Eleven out of fourteen.

Unfortunately, there were also hits. Three employees of the State Emergency Service in Khmelnytskyi were wounded, two were killed. My condolences to the families. The second drone hit just as the fire was being extinguished after the first hit.

In fact, that is why we need the aviation component of air defense - modern combat aircraft - to protect the entire territory of our country from Russian terror. Air defense is complete only when it is backed by aviation. Modern aviation.

Our pilots, together with our anti-aircraft gunners, together with all the warriors and specialists of our Air Forces, are already doing a great job. But we will be able to fully protect the sky when the aviation taboo in relations with our partners is lifted.

The elimination of consequences of the power grid accident in Odesa and the Odesa region lasted all day. There was a large-scale power outage, but the power supply was restored within a day.

As of this evening, all critical infrastructure and the vast majority of consumers have electricity. I am grateful to all power engineers and repair crews who ensured a quick result.

Ukraine demonstrated and will continue to demonstrate that our resilience is higher than anyone's expectations.

Today, I held several meetings with representatives of the government and security agencies. In particular, a meeting with Head of the Security Service of Ukraine Vasyl Malyuk. We discussed current issues and our steps to protect the state in the near future.

We will not leave any chance to any internal threats, just as we don’t leave it to external ones.

Of course, I am constantly in touch with our commanders. Special attention to the situation in the east, of course, in the Donetsk region.

Bakhmut direction - the situation is getting more and more difficult. The enemy is constantly destroying everything that can be used to protect our positions, to gain a foothold and ensure defense.

Our warriors defending the Bakhmut sector are real heroes.

I am grateful to each and every person who is heroically holding this direction and other directions in Donbas. I thank each and every one who helps our warriors and does everything to ensure that our defenders have as many weapons, long-range weapons, powerful weapons as possible.

Today, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury paid a visit to Kyiv.

I thanked her for the vital financial support for our country. We discussed our current cooperation both at the level between Ukraine and the United States and at the level of global financial institutions, including the IMF. We discussed the needs for reconstruction in Ukraine and the restoration of justice for our people and the entire free world, which means launching a real mechanism of compensation for the damage caused by this war... compensation at the cost of Russian assets.

This is not an easy task. But fulfilling it and directing Russian assets to compensate for the war damage will be one of the most powerful hits of the free world against this aggressor and against any aggression in general.

I think a format for compensation will be found and Russia will pay for its war. In every sense.

Glory to each and every one who is now fighting for Ukraine! Thank you to everyone who helps!

May the memory of all those whose lives were taken by Russian terror be eternal!

Glory to Ukraine!


US White House

quote:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...s-john-kirby-6/

Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby
FEBRUARY 27, 2023



Now, my second update has to do with Saudi Arabia and Ukraine. As you know, we are and we have been for the last year asking all partners to do what they can to support Ukraine.

And so, we welcome the visit made yesterday by Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister and senior Saudi humanitarian and energy officials to Kyiv for meetings with President Zelenskyy and, of course, the rest of his leadership team. This was the first ministerial visit by an Arab state to Kyiv since the war began.

During the visit, the Saudis and Ukrainians formalized arrangements for the delivery of $400 million in assistance, including generators and badly needed energy products and supplies. Now, these deliveries will begin arriving next week.

This is an important announcement. I’d also point to Saudi Arabia’s vote in favor of the U.N. General Assembly resolution just last week on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — its fourth on these resolutions.

Coming on the heels of the President’s historic visit to Kyiv, we are asking all partners to do what they can, as I said, to support Ukraine. And we recognize these are sovereign decisions that they have to make.




Q And also, do you think that there’s — what would happen if China were to send lethal weapons to Ukraine? How would that affect the bilateral relationship?

MR. KIRBY: You know, again, I’m not going to get into a hypothetical here and speculate. We have not seen the Chinese make a decision to move in that direction. We have been very honest and candid, not only with all of you publicly but with the Chinese privately, about our concerns over the provision of those kinds of capabilities. And you heard Sec- — you heard Jake Sullivan talk about this yesterday, in terms of the fact that there would have to be ramifications for that.





UK Government

quote:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/un-human-rights-council-february-2023-foreign-secretarys-statement

UN Human Rights Council, February 2023: Foreign Secretary's statement
From: Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and The Rt Hon James Cleverly MP
Published
27 February 2023



Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and illegal so-called annexations are a blatant violation of international law and the UN Charter.

The Commission of Inquiry, which this Council established last year, has concluded that war crimes have been committed in Ukraine. Abuses and violations of human rights have been committed by Russian forces on a systematic scale: torture and killing of civilians, rape and sexual violence, forced deportation.

The Human Rights Council must condemn Russia’s actions. We cannot allow this behaviour to go unanswered. These barbaric acts must never be repeated. The Ukrainian people must have justice.

That is why this session must renew the Commission of Inquiry’s mandate.

We remind Russia of the international human rights obligations, which it has freely undertaken. And of its obligations under the UN Charter.

We call upon Russia to:

- enable humanitarian access into Ukraine and safe passage for civilians
- restore human rights, within its own borders and outside, and
- to immediately withdraw its forces from Ukraine





United Nations

quote:

https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/02/1133927

Human Rights Council: Russia responsible for ‘widespread death and destruction’ in Ukraine
27 February 2023

Speaking only days since a large majority of the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution calling for the immediate withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, the UN chief stressed that Russia’s decision to go to war against its neighbour on 24 February 2022 had unleashed “widespread death, destruction and displacement”.

Also present at the opening of the 52nd session of the Geneva-based Council, the President of the UN General Assembly, Csaba Kőrösi, issued a stark warning that Russia’s actions had “effectively paralyzed” the Security Council in New York, the primary international forum tasked with maintaining peace and security.

The Security Council, like the General Assembly, was at a crossroads, he said.

Many countries are still struggling to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and more than 70 countries are in debt distress amid a global cost of living crisis, Mr. Kőrösi continued, with women and girls “systematically marginalized” in many countries.

Amid such “unprecedented…interlocking” crises, the General Assembly President said that nothing less than a fundamental shift in the global response was needed, especially on tackling climate change, which is already an existential threat for many communities.

Confirmed abuses in Ukraine

In addition to “terrible suffering” caused by repeated shelling of Ukrainian cities and key infrastructure, Mr. Guterres added that dozens of cases of conflict-related sexual violence against men, women and girls, had been documented in Ukraine in the last year.

“Serious violations of international humanitarian and human rights law against prisoners of war and hundreds of cases of enforced disappearances and arbitrary detentions of civilians” have been uncovered in the past 12 months, the UN Secretary-General told Human Rights Council Member States, as they gathered for an unprecedented marathon near six-week session in Geneva.

As part of the Human Rights Council’s scheduled work, its 47 Member States will hear an update from the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine on 20 March.

The probe was set up in March last year, after Member States adopted a resolution on the situation of human rights in Ukraine stemming from the Russian aggression. The work of the three Commissioners complements that of the existing UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), which gathers together testimonies of possible war crimes, among other tasks.



HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

cinci zoo sniper posted:

It's getting late for me to reply to the full post, but I want to address the start of it, as it makes it seem like there's a ream of topics forbidden to post about. Maybe I'm reading too much into your phrasing, but if it's not restricted in the thread rules, you can just post it without reservation*. Furthermore, the language of the rules is deliberate, e.g., “discouraged” does explicitly not mean “forbidden”.


* common sense and D&D/SA rules still apply

I did not mean to imply that there was a lot forbidden, that was definitely meant more of a "I am particularly glad this is okay to discuss" manner

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




HonorableTB posted:

I did not mean to imply that there was a lot forbidden, that was definitely meant more of a "I am particularly glad this is okay to discuss" manner

Ah, gotcha. No worries. :cheers:

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

cinci zoo sniper posted:

This sounds like there's some back office, if I had to assume a place then in eastern Poland, where novel war remains get hauled to for forensics, and then disseminated upstream to the allies. I believe that the MIC part of this sanctions package on the EU end did also go off a manner of a similar catalogue, which leads me to speculate that this is rigorous, centralized lab operation somewhere.

Presumably related to this:
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/orlan-complex-tracking-supply-chains-russias-most-successful-uav

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013





Right, forgot about this piece – it's pretty good. Another semi-related link could be the discovery of modified Shahed warheads (in a UK lab): https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/09/politics/iranian-drones-modified-explosives-ukraine-infrastructure/index.html

WarpedLichen
Aug 14, 2008



I was thinking more on the enforcement end.

Example the Orlan piece talks about two chips:

A wifi chip which falls under commercial encryption category 5A992.C
https://www.mouser.fi/ProductDetail/Texas-Instruments/WL1835MODCOM8B?qs=T7SOdw%2F%2FRB9CUeSP5%2FOVzg%3D%3D

A fpga which falls under 3A991.d - Field programmable logic devices having a maximum number of single-ended digital input/outputs between 200 and 700
https://www.mouser.com/ProductDetail/Xilinx/XC6VLX130T-1FFG484C?qs=rrS6PyfT74es1Usw2UJfgg%3D%3D

5A992 is a category relaxed enough that you can still have these items in Russia and Belarus whereas other things require a license to move them there.
https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C/part-746/section-746.8

3A991 is also a fairly relaxed category, so these aren't really things at the top end or tightly controlled pre war.

Just curious if the UK are reclassifying things/adding new categories or line item adding stuff that get found. A total export ban on commercial electronics sounds pretty extreme to me but there's probably more nuance in the actual implementation.

WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 04:40 on Feb 28, 2023

jmnmu
Nov 21, 2004
f
Really late to the party, but just stating that

SoggyBobcat posted:

closing the GBS thread sucks rear end

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

CatHorse
Jan 5, 2008

Cicero posted:

Eh? That picture very much looks like it's in the states, judging by...well, basically everything.

The trailer has an underrun protection bar so can't be the US

weirdly chilly pussy
Oct 6, 2007

I don't normally bother too much with the war updates, but there was a rather interesting article in today's Finnish YLE news (available only in Finnish) that I think offered a refreshing reminder that the war won't be decided purely by Ukraine getting western war materiel (which they should get), but also by the level of training that the troops receive.

YLE interviewed a retired Finnish officer and two Finnish soldiers (all in Ukraine) and their outlook on the training methods of Ukrainian troops was rather pessimistic, even scathing in parts.

https://yle.fi/a/74-20019659

(Translation mostly by Microsoft Edge:)

quote:

According to a Finnish officer, Ukraine lacks the skill to attack and therefore the war ends in a bitter surprise – "Russia will not lose this war"
The Finnish soldiers interviewed by YLE consider the training of the Finnish Defence Forces to be the best in the world against Russia. That is the lesson that the Ukrainian armed forces desperately need now.



KIEV Now that the Russian armed forces have been stumbling in Ukraine for a year, most Ukrainians and Finns believe in a Ukrainian victory.

That is unwarranted optimism, says a high-ranking Finnish officer who has been following the war on the ground since last April.

In the officer's opinion, the Ukrainian troops do not know how to attack and their training is at a standstill, as if straight from the Soviet Union.

– Ukrainians think they are good soldiers. But that doesn't make it a skilled soldier to have eight years in the trenches to be afraid. Training makes a soldier, the officer charges.

That is why the Finnish officer has taken it upon himself to improve the training of Ukrainian soldiers, especially non-commissioned officers.

He does not want to appear in public under his own name or face. According to the officer, his military rank in Ukraine could arouse resentment even in Russia, even though he is no longer in permanent service in Finland and does not represent Finland anyway.

Anonymously, he can also tell about the situation in an exceptionally blunt manner.

His identity is known to Yle. Yle met him in January in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.

The officer is a dissident of the war, as many Western experts believe in Ukraine's war success. In an interview with YLE, the officer debunks several established notions of war.

According to the officer, the only thing that has saved Ukraine so far is that Russia has succumbed to equally bad mistakes. However, it would not be worth making fun of Russia's mistakes.

"The Russian troops have learned, but the Ukrainians have not," says the officer.


Officer: Ukrainian and Russian losses are equally tough
In the officer's opinion, the level of competence of the Ukrainian armed forces is disconcertingly low – and the more he has seen it, the more miserable he considers the level.

– Really bad leadership, poor tactical and combat technical skills. They have taken an example mainly from video games and movies, the officer says.

Especially fatal for the continuation of the war is the fact that, in the opinion of the officer, the Ukrainian troops are incapable of fast-paced mobile warfare. That is why the war has become entrenched in an old-fashioned positional war, in which soldiers from the opposing side are killed by artillery.

– The invasion of Ukraine is a frontal attack. You don't know how to bend, the officer says.

According to the officer, a frontal attack is easier to lead, but the end result is only a front line that moves with difficulty and huge losses. The price of a positional war is high for both, but Ukraine has less reserve than Russia.

Based on the information he collected from the front, the officer estimated that Ukraine's losses in the war are at the same level as Russia's.

According to official estimates of Ukraine, Russia has already lost about 150, 000 soldiers in the war, but Western estimates are lower. Ukraine does not report on its own losses.

Ukrainian counterattacks 'lucky ones'
Ukraine has, of course, regained control of some of the territories that Russia captured at the beginning of its major offensive in the direction of Kiev, Kharkiv and Herson.

"They were lucky," the officer acknowledges.

The officer criticizes the Ukrainians for not trying to blockade the Russians. Beating the aggressor by encircling would save cities, because buildings would not have to be bombed to the ground, as was the case, for example, in the northwestern suburbs of Kiev last spring.

The northwest of Kiev, according to the officer, would also have had excellent conditions for guerrilla activity, but Ukraine did not use that means. In addition, with the use of mines, the Russian attack would have been stopped faster.

Instead of Ukraine's merits, Russia's withdrawal, in the officer's opinion, was rather due to Russia's own mistakes.

In the case of Kharkiv, Russia had left a hole in the front, which was mainly filled only by rebels from Donbas. Ukraine captured the territory east of Kharkov quickly and almost without fighting, since the few soldiers of the opposing side fled.

Also from Herson, Russia withdrew almost without resistance. The withdrawal of the Russians was mainly due to the fact that Ukraine destroyed the bridges over the Dnieper River, making it impossible to maintain troops.

Now the same lack of bridges prevents Ukraine from attacking the eastern bank of the river. And Ukraine has not attacked anywhere else either.

– It seems that Russia has an initiative. One could almost say that Ukraine is about to lose the war if nothing decisive happens, the officer says.


"Ukraine is unlikely to even get Donbas, so if they could even get to the starting point, it would be a victory in the fight," says the officer.

According to the officer, the main problem is not the lack of armaments, but the fact that the competence of the Ukrainian armed forces is simply not enough.

– The Ukrainians have a terrible will and desire to win, but with this war it will not succeed. I haven't seen any signs of that, the officer says.

He points out that Crimea is of particular importance to Russia.

– Russia will not lose this war, because Russia is a nuclear power. If Ukraine were to launch a major offensive against Crimea, then Russia would likely use a tactical nuclear weapon, the officer says.

He believes that as a result of the war, Ukraine will have to give up the territories occupied by Russia, as it would be too difficult to evict Russian soldiers.

– This is not the end of Ukraine, but the border is changing. It must be accepted, as it was in the Winter War. There is nothing you can do about it, the officer predicts.



Yle's foreign journalist Mika Mäkeläinen assesses the war situation.
Ukraine dominates the publicity of the West
The scenario of Ukraine's loss of territory sounds bad in Finland and Europe. The officer thinks it's because of the unwarranted expectations fueled by publicity.

According to the officer, the western perception of the war situation depends entirely on the information produced by Ukraine. The other side is not being listened to, which is understandable in that Russia is lying so blatantly.

– The media is fully involved in Ukrainian propaganda. In a way, it's hype that Ukraine would win, the officer says.

In the officer's opinion, the most realism is found in U.S. intelligence agencies, but it's another matter how much of it ends up with the Allies.

In the officer's opinion, even the leadership of the Finnish state does not have a realistic view of the power relations of the war, since its situational picture is mainly based on public sources.

–Marin says that the war will end when Russia leaves Ukraine. Not going to happen. People in Finland are over-optimistic, the officer says.

According to the officer, the situation at the front looks really bad for Ukraine. The chances of a counterattack in Ukraine are slim.

"The Ukrainians haven't been able to get through Russia's fortified stations really anywhere," the officer says.

"If the public were to give a real picture, everyone would start to become skeptical. And the will to win would fade. But the truth should be understood, he continues.


Finnish education would be a perfect fit for Ukraine
The West is trying to turn the balance of power in Ukraine's favour with massive arms aid. The officer thinks it is necessary, but it is not enough.

According to him, the most effective way to change the situation would be better training for soldiers – and Finnish military training would suit Ukrainians very well.

"The Finnish army currently has the best training in the world against Russia. We have been practicing it for a hundred years, and we have fought two wars," the officer reminds us.

The United States has specially trained Ukrainian special forces, but the model does not receive praise from the officer.

"No one else has the kind of curatorial expertise in the forest and terrain that Finland has. That's what should be trained here, he says.

The Finns have already given some education in Ukraine. However, it has been small-scale and has been done on a voluntary basis. According to the officer, there would be as many willing trainers in Finland if the Ukrainian and Finnish Defense Ministries could agree on the matter.

"Reservists would be coming in the darkest of clouds. In monetary terms, it would be a piece of cake, the officer says – that is, a pittance.

More military training, he says, would be the most cost-effective way to help Ukrainians.

"That's why I'm here now, when I feel sorry for how poorly trained the rank-and-file soldiers and NCOs are sent to the front, and they come back in the coffin," says the officer.

The problem of attitudes of Ukrainians complicates education
In training, however, the officer has run into a surprisingly tough problem: It is really difficult to adopt new doctrines in Ukraine.

– If you start telling the Ukrainians another option, then the Ukrainians will consider it a criticism, and immediately begin to excuse themselves. The ability to accept criticism is really poor," the officer says.

In that respect, Russia and Ukraine follow the same traditions.

"It's a Soviet system where you just do what you tell you to," he says.

The interpreter of the Ukrainian armed forces used by the officer has suggested that a Finn should not be so blunt.

The hierarchical nature of the organization creates additional problems. Inferior officers do not dare to propose changes to the superiors, as this would be considered a criticism.

"The captains and majors tell me it's a good idea, but their grade isn't enough to move the issue forward," the officer laments.

However, change is coming. According to the Finnish officer, young Ukrainian officers and young officials are finally warming up to the reform of training. It will also open up better opportunities for Finland to start training on Ukrainian soil.


Finnish soldier: Training improved, and Ukraine wins the war
Kenneth Grägg, a Finn, sits in a camouflage suit in the lobby of a hotel in Kiev.


According to Kenneth Grägg, Ukrainian soldiers today receive sufficiently long training. Photo: Mika Mäkeläinen / Yle
Yle also met two Finnish soldiers who took part in the battles in Kiev and asked them to assess the competence of the Ukrainian troops. One of them has a rather optimistic opinion, but the other thinks that the criticism made by the Finnish officer is correct.

Kenneth Grägg says he is working with three Ukrainian battalions on the Eastern Front, including training.

In Grägg's opinion, the criticism of the military skill of Ukrainian officers is partly justified. Last year, according to Grägg, reserve lieutenants who had attended the university entered the service so poorly trained that even the recruits knew more.

"It went up my rear end," Grägg says, but according to him, the situation is much brighter now.

In Grägg's opinion, the chain of command has also become more flexible. In Ukraine, the rank-and-file soldier is now given more decision-making power in a combat situation, and the training of non-commissioned officers has improved.

In Grägg's view, ukraine's recent losses are mainly due to the fact that there are so many Russian soldiers on the mobilization. This was seen, for example, in January, when Russia captured the city of Soledar.

"We didn't have enough artillery, and the Russians came through with a mass," Grägg says.

According to Grägg, however, russia's mobilization will not work as well in the future, as Russia's weapons are running low.

"They can force up to a million men at the front, but what will they be given? An axe? Grägg asks.

In Grägg's view, the West's arms aid to Ukraine will change the balance of power. If Ukraine receives battle tanks, howitzers and F-16 fighters from the West, Grägg predicts that the war will end with a Ukrainian victory by midsummer.

Finnish fighter: "No clue about moving under fire"
A Finnish volunteer fighter in disguise looks into the camera in Kiev.


The Finnish volunteer fighter hopes for a victory for Ukraine, but suspects that the current front line may become established. Photo: Mika Mäkeläinen / Yle
Another Finnish soldier in Ukraine does not want to appear recognizably in public, so he is called Erkki in this story. Yle also met him at the end of January in Kiev, and his identity is known to Yle.

In Erkki's opinion, Ukraine cannot continue against Russia with the same Soviet military doctrine as before, because Russia will have more soldiers in the long run.

"The Ukrainians are waging a lot of positional warfare and have no idea of an attack," Erkki says.

According to Erkki, the main problem in Ukraine is the lack of training for group leaders and team leaders, which leads to poor communication and confused actions in a combat situation.

"Ukrainians have no clue about protecting themselves and moving under fire," Erkki says. Soldiers, for example, are just advancing straight and not aiming properly.

According to him, in a combat situation, a lack of initiative appears, and even preparation is not effective.

"When the soldiers are in the barracks, they just lie down, even though they need to train," says Erkki.

The contrast with Erkki's own training during conscription is great.

All three Finns agree on one thing: Finnish military training is the best in the world, which is why it should now also be offered to Ukraine

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.
Finns agree: Finland is amazing.

In all seriousness, it seems unlikely Ukraine would be turning down training opportunities from western allies, if said allies are paying for the training. The ball is probably in Finland's court, they need to offer.

Charlotte Hornets
Dec 30, 2011

by Fritz the Horse
Two soviet armies crashing into each other with both incapable of doing maneuver warfare and relegated to essentially low scale platoon and company level trench warfare.

Charlotte Hornets fucked around with this message at 09:55 on Feb 28, 2023

Dwesa
Jul 19, 2016

curious, closed airspace over St. Petersburg

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1630487060007067648

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630481631306711040

also another blown up oil depot near Tuapse - 430+ km from Ukraine-controlled territory (mentioned earlier in linked thread)

Edit: open now

Dwesa fucked around with this message at 10:45 on Feb 28, 2023

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands
I do think it's entirely possible that Ukraine may have issues with its legacy Soviet system - the office manager turned platoon leader diaries weren't shy about talking about issues with old Soviet officers that seem to just follow the rules or otherwise don't apparently know what they're doing, and many of his diary entries speak to rushed training and a great deal of confusion about what's going on. Part of that is just war of course, but it may well be that some of that is also inadequate training and communication between units.

That being said, one thing about that article and that high-ranking officer in particular? We're talking about a high-ranking officer who's retired and decided to volunteer in Ukraine at retirement age, with a very outspoken and pessimistic opinion about Ukraine's current ability to fight. I kinda suspects when he talks about how the Ukrainians are unable to take criticism, there's a reason why his interpreter suggests that maybe he shouldn't be so blunt. Gives the impression of a strong personality that isn't entirely at home with the concept of tact. Not saying he's necessarily wrong about anything else, but it's possible that another trainer may find the Ukrainians less resistant to his suggestions.

weirdly chilly pussy
Oct 6, 2007

Tomn posted:


That being said, one thing about that article and that high-ranking officer in particular? We're talking about a high-ranking officer who's retired and decided to volunteer in Ukraine at retirement age, with a very outspoken and pessimistic opinion about Ukraine's current ability to fight. I kinda suspects when he talks about how the Ukrainians are unable to take criticism, there's a reason why his interpreter suggests that maybe he shouldn't be so blunt. Gives the impression of a strong personality that isn't entirely at home with the concept of tact. Not saying he's necessarily wrong about anything else, but it's possible that another trainer may find the Ukrainians less resistant to his suggestions.

The stereotypical Finnish officer is an insufferable rear end in a top hat, so wouldn't be surprised if that was the case with him. Either way, it's good to be reminded that we're getting a rather curated view of the war effort from purely Ukrainian sources.

bad_fmr
Nov 28, 2007

Some retired Finnish officer lacking in social skills? No way, unthinkable.

Groda
Mar 17, 2005

Hair Elf
It's weird working with the Finnish Defense Forces. They're doing universal 19 year old male conscription two generations after the rest of the Nordics, and have like 10x the budget.

I bet we're just not used to the kind of officer that fosters.

Also, Finns lol

Groda fucked around with this message at 10:29 on Feb 28, 2023

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Dwesa posted:

curious, closed airspace over St. Petersburg

It had me wondering if Russians aren't in a super jumpy mode after that AWACS got wrecked... or if someone is actually doing something nefarious in the area.

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.

Groda posted:

It's weird working with the Finnish Defense Forces. They're doing universal 19 year old male conscription two generations after the rest of the Nordics, and have like 10x the budget.

I bet we're just not used to the kind of officer that fosters.

Also, Finns lol

We're also considering expanding it to women now.

jaete
Jun 21, 2009


Nap Ghost

Cicero posted:

In all seriousness, it seems unlikely Ukraine would be turning down training opportunities from western allies, if said allies are paying for the training. The ball is probably in Finland's court, they need to offer.

Yeah I think Finland should do more. Some training would be good, not just materiel. Also with the materiel Finland doesn't officially comment on what they're giving, so it's hard to figure out how useful the aid is.

For example, Finland has approx 100 Leopard 2A6 tanks and 139 2A4's (source: Wikipedia). Of the latter, probably half (I guess) could be donated to Ukraine without it being an issue. Whether it's an issue or not, more communication on the decision making here and also more openness would be nice.

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

weirdly chilly pussy posted:

I don't normally bother too much with the war updates, but there was a rather interesting article in today's Finnish YLE news (available only in Finnish) that I think offered a refreshing reminder that the war won't be decided purely by Ukraine getting western war materiel (which they should get), but also by the level of training that the troops receive.

YLE interviewed a retired Finnish officer and two Finnish soldiers (all in Ukraine) and their outlook on the training methods of Ukrainian troops was rather pessimistic, even scathing in parts.

https://yle.fi/a/74-20019659

(Translation mostly by Microsoft Edge:)

The fact that they've used Kenneth Grägg as a source makes the whole thing a bit suspicious, because he's a known serial fraudster.

Torrannor
Apr 27, 2013

---FAGNER---
TEAM-MATE

jaete posted:

Yeah I think Finland should do more. Some training would be good, not just materiel. Also with the materiel Finland doesn't officially comment on what they're giving, so it's hard to figure out how useful the aid is.

For example, Finland has approx 100 Leopard 2A6 tanks and 139 2A4's (source: Wikipedia). Of the latter, probably half (I guess) could be donated to Ukraine without it being an issue. Whether it's an issue or not, more communication on the decision making here and also more openness would be nice.

IF all those tanks are in decent enough condition, then sure. But given recent revelations, that's probably a big IF. I don't expect cartoonish incompetence like in Spain from a non-NATO member bordering Russia, but it also wouldn't surprise me if at least some of those tanks are inoperable, making the margins too tight to give more than a token number of tanks to Ukraine.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

jaete posted:

For example, Finland has approx 100 Leopard 2A6 tanks and 139 2A4's (source: Wikipedia). Of the latter, probably half (I guess) could be donated to Ukraine without it being an issue.

What makes you think that Finnish doctrine allows for over a quarter of the entire tank force to go missing??? Finland is trying to build up fighting capability, not lose it. There are no spare tanks.

Tomn
Aug 23, 2007

And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

jaete posted:

Yeah I think Finland should do more. Some training would be good, not just materiel. Also with the materiel Finland doesn't officially comment on what they're giving, so it's hard to figure out how useful the aid is.

For example, Finland has approx 100 Leopard 2A6 tanks and 139 2A4's (source: Wikipedia). Of the latter, probably half (I guess) could be donated to Ukraine without it being an issue. Whether it's an issue or not, more communication on the decision making here and also more openness would be nice.

It has been mentioned I believe that while Finland may have stuff that could be sent, in light of current events the Finnish government appears understandably reluctant to weaken their own defenses much further.

It's one of the big ironies of the war really - the very fact that Ukraine is under attack and needs tanks makes countries, especially countries bordering Russia, reluctant to send them tanks because it turns out they might very well need them.

fish and chips and dip
Feb 17, 2010
According to Russian MOD the air space closure around St. Petersburg was due to air force exercises:

quote:

In a statement issued about an hour after flights had restarted, the Defense Ministry said it had been carrying out exercises that involved the dispatch of fighter jets in Russia's western air space.

"During the training, air defense forces worked on the detection, interception, and identification of targets, as well as interacting with emergency services and law enforcement agencies," Russian news agencies cited the ministry as saying.

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-flights-resume-to-st-petersburg-after-air-shutdown/a-64838547

I don't know, but would they just do exercises like that on seemingly short, or no, notice above a major city? Or is it just an excuse/lie to not disclose the real story?

bad_fmr
Nov 28, 2007

Torrannor posted:

IF all those tanks are in decent enough condition, then sure. But given recent revelations, that's probably a big IF. I don't expect cartoonish incompetence like in Spain from a non-NATO member bordering Russia, but it also wouldn't surprise me if at least some of those tanks are inoperable, making the margins too tight to give more than a token number of tanks to Ukraine.

I would be very surprised if those Leopards would be in any way inoperable, beyond standard maintenance and upgrade rotation reasons. A lot of the gear and vehicles are old and used but they are well maintained. Also at least from a soldiers perspective every single item is always accounted for and in the books. There is paperwork about everything and the officers in charge of the gear seemed to take their jobs beyond seriously. Lose anything and there will be a report.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Ukraine keeps probing deep Russian air defenses with even more daring drone strikes

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1630545767604670467?t=ERqBMwili6E3gnR-Tt10-Q&s=19

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




WarpedLichen posted:

Just curious if the UK are reclassifying things/adding new categories or line item adding stuff that get found.

Pretty sure it's line items that get found, maybe then expanded into like “hey, Russia probably doesn't need access to this boutique drone controller manufacturer at all”.


While this is a bit of a “15 in 10 Finns agree that Finland won the Finno-Korean hyperwar”, Ukrainian domestic discourse is increasingly grappling with the subject of 8 years of “NATO-fication” of their army involving a considerable level of wishful thing.

Bug Squash
Mar 18, 2009

fatherboxx posted:

Ukraine keeps probing deep Russian air defenses with even more daring drone strikes

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1630545767604670467?t=ERqBMwili6E3gnR-Tt10-Q&s=19

"If launched from Ukrainian territory" may be doing some heavy lifting here. Is it more probable that the drone was launched by operators who have infiltrated Russia with the equipment, rather than a long distance drone?

Icon Of Sin
Dec 26, 2008



Bug Squash posted:

"If launched from Ukrainian territory" may be doing some heavy lifting here. Is it more probable that the drone was launched by operators who have infiltrated Russia with the equipment, rather than a long distance drone?

It’s wheeled, so they’d have to set up enough of a runway for it to take off. Idk how long that is, but that sounds like the exact thing you’d want to avoid having to do if you’re trying to stay unnoticed.

Ynglaur
Oct 9, 2013

The Malta Conference, anyone?
The Finnish officer's assessment isn't surprising, and people like Michael Koffman* assess that a future Ukrainian offensive is more likely to look like the Kherson Offensive than the Kharkiv Offensive. There's only so much you can train in a handful of weeks, and while Ukraine has been trying to change its military culture for 8 years, changing a military institutional culture is hard, and fails as often as it succeeds (see: Russia).

That said, there's definitely a tone of, "I am very smart why aren't they listening to me?" Being right isn't sufficient; you need to convince your audience/students, and that's a different skill. I also had to :rolleyes: a bit about his comment that reduced to "lol just flank". Yeah, that's easy on a video game: it's much harder when you're faced with a solid front of trenchworks backed by artillery and ATGMs.

What Ukraine needs isn't operational proficiency at flanking; they need tactical proficiency at breaching and operaitonal proficiency at exploitation. Kharkiv seemed to demonstrate the latter. I don't know if they have the former, though that recent US DOD budget assessment showing the US buying a lot of mine-clearing charges is promising.

* I know I cite him a lot, but he's good.

RBA-Wintrow
Nov 4, 2009


Clapping Larry

fish and chips and dip posted:

According to Russian MOD the air space closure around St. Petersburg was due to air force exercises:

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-flights-resume-to-st-petersburg-after-air-shutdown/a-64838547

I don't know, but would they just do exercises like that on seemingly short, or no, notice above a major city? Or is it just an excuse/lie to not disclose the real story?

They forced civilian commercial aircraft to divert and delay. At the very least there will be costly damage claims. Assuming russian commercial airlines have the balls to sue the government.

RBA-Wintrow fucked around with this message at 14:46 on Feb 28, 2023

SmokingFrog0641
Oct 29, 2011
Not terribly thorough piece but Peskov is complaining that Macron and Scholz are not contacting Putin as much. Optics wise, perhaps alleviate early accusations that this is a West-driven war and the NATO powers would dictate the peace.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/28/7391319/

Peskov:
“We have heard a lot of statements from Scholz and Macron, who said they would continue to speak with Putin in order to look for some ways out of the situation. However, there have been no initiatives recently."

“Everybody has to know this: there were no requests or considerations of possible time frames for such a conversation.”

Macron in particular took a lot of flak early on for his failed attempts to show himself as the peace broker for Europe. Granted, it was folly to ever believe that Putin was being an honest broker in those early talks.

ronya
Nov 8, 2010

I'm the normal one.

You hate ridden fucks will regret your words when you eventually grow up.

Peace.
https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1630550311977852928

a unintended/opportunist coup in Moldova would raise Russian morale, but on net would seem to diminish its geopolitical position. It doesn't present many military advantages whilst seriously irking NATO and to a lesser extent also China

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

SmokingFrog0641 posted:

Not terribly thorough piece but Peskov is complaining that Macron and Scholz are not contacting Putin as much. Optics wise, perhaps alleviate early accusations that this is a West-driven war and the NATO powers would dictate the peace.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/28/7391319/

Peskov:
“We have heard a lot of statements from Scholz and Macron, who said they would continue to speak with Putin in order to look for some ways out of the situation. However, there have been no initiatives recently."

“Everybody has to know this: there were no requests or considerations of possible time frames for such a conversation.”

Macron in particular took a lot of flak early on for his failed attempts to show himself as the peace broker for Europe. Granted, it was folly to ever believe that Putin was being an honest broker in those early talks.

Apparently, telephones in Russia only work one way. Odd.

Otherwise, Putin could pick one up and call Macron if he wanted to talk.

RockWhisperer
Oct 26, 2018

Ynglaur posted:

* I know I cite him a lot, but he's good.

He's the most grounded of all the Mil analysts and appreciates nuance. He's got a certain knack for assessing Russian commanders' competencies that makes for good opinions on current events.

He is good.

SmokingFrog0641
Oct 29, 2011

Deteriorata posted:

Apparently, telephones in Russia only work one way. Odd.

Otherwise, Putin could pick one up and call Macron if he wanted to talk.

Putin can only be bothered to engage in monologue diatribes or engage in dialogue where he’s being kowtowed to. He needs Peskov to plead on his behalf.

Really it’s probably about the regime putting out a spin about how they are the victims and no one will come speak with dear honest Russia. Why should Russia be serious about peace when no one of the real pushers of the conflict will even speak with them, etc, etc.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Tigey
Apr 6, 2015

Deteriorata posted:

Apparently, telephones in Russia only work one way. Odd.

Otherwise, Putin could pick one up and call Macron if he wanted to talk.

The Almighty Tsar shouldn't have to prostrate himself before other leaders. Instead they should come to the imperial capitol and kowtow to him, offering tribute and concessions, before he deigns to hear them.

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5