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Interested to see if Congress can exert enough pressure to actually make this work (sending F-16's): https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/bipartisan-house-push-for-u-s-to-send-jets-to-ukraine-164096581719cinci zoo sniper posted:It's a joke post.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 02:21 |
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# ? May 23, 2024 17:15 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Was fine, for that statement on the last page at least. I'm glad that Girkin's posts are allowed at least (personally, I could do with or without Solovyov and Simonyan, they are largely wind bags) because I have always interpreted Girkin to be the mouthpiece of the FSB in the Kremlin's internal posting wars. Wagner has Prigozhin doing the PR himself, and I guess the RU Ministry of Defense is represented by a combination of Peskov and MoD releases, with..I guess Kadyrov being the mouthpiece for the hardliners? This reminds me a lot of the same kind of Kremlinology that was everywhere in the Cold War. I lived in RU, have degrees in this area, speak Russian, and what the Kremlin is doing is still largely a mystery. I have no idea how people did it in the past without the flow of information we have now
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 02:23 |
HonorableTB posted:I'm glad that Girkin's posts are allowed at least It's getting late for me to reply to the full post, but I want to address the start of it, as it makes it seem like there's a ream of topics forbidden to post about. Maybe I'm reading too much into your phrasing, but if it's not restricted in the thread rules, you can just post it without reservation*. Furthermore, the language of the rules is deliberate, e.g., “discouraged” does explicitly not mean “forbidden”. * common sense and D&D/SA rules still apply
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 02:41 |
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Round-up of news of the day President of Ukraine quote:https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/nam-potribni-suchasni-bojovi-litaki-shob-ubezpechiti-vid-ros-81333 US White House quote:https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...s-john-kirby-6/ UK Government quote:https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/un-human-rights-council-february-2023-foreign-secretarys-statement United Nations quote:https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/02/1133927
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 02:44 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:It's getting late for me to reply to the full post, but I want to address the start of it, as it makes it seem like there's a ream of topics forbidden to post about. Maybe I'm reading too much into your phrasing, but if it's not restricted in the thread rules, you can just post it without reservation*. Furthermore, the language of the rules is deliberate, e.g., “discouraged” does explicitly not mean “forbidden”. I did not mean to imply that there was a lot forbidden, that was definitely meant more of a "I am particularly glad this is okay to discuss" manner
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 02:44 |
HonorableTB posted:I did not mean to imply that there was a lot forbidden, that was definitely meant more of a "I am particularly glad this is okay to discuss" manner Ah, gotcha. No worries.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 02:48 |
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This sounds like there's some back office, if I had to assume a place then in eastern Poland, where novel war remains get hauled to for forensics, and then disseminated upstream to the allies. I believe that the MIC part of this sanctions package on the EU end did also go off a manner of a similar catalogue, which leads me to speculate that this is rigorous, centralized lab operation somewhere. Presumably related to this: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/orlan-complex-tracking-supply-chains-russias-most-successful-uav
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 02:56 |
Hannibal Rex posted:Presumably related to this: Right, forgot about this piece – it's pretty good. Another semi-related link could be the discovery of modified Shahed warheads (in a UK lab): https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/09/politics/iranian-drones-modified-explosives-ukraine-infrastructure/index.html
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 03:03 |
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Hannibal Rex posted:Presumably related to this: I was thinking more on the enforcement end. Example the Orlan piece talks about two chips: A wifi chip which falls under commercial encryption category 5A992.C https://www.mouser.fi/ProductDetail/Texas-Instruments/WL1835MODCOM8B?qs=T7SOdw%2F%2FRB9CUeSP5%2FOVzg%3D%3D A fpga which falls under 3A991.d - Field programmable logic devices having a maximum number of single-ended digital input/outputs between 200 and 700 https://www.mouser.com/ProductDetail/Xilinx/XC6VLX130T-1FFG484C?qs=rrS6PyfT74es1Usw2UJfgg%3D%3D 5A992 is a category relaxed enough that you can still have these items in Russia and Belarus whereas other things require a license to move them there. https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-C/part-746/section-746.8 3A991 is also a fairly relaxed category, so these aren't really things at the top end or tightly controlled pre war. Just curious if the UK are reclassifying things/adding new categories or line item adding stuff that get found. A total export ban on commercial electronics sounds pretty extreme to me but there's probably more nuance in the actual implementation. WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 04:40 on Feb 28, 2023 |
# ? Feb 28, 2023 04:37 |
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Really late to the party, but just stating thatSoggyBobcat posted:closing the GBS thread sucks rear end (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 06:14 |
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Cicero posted:Eh? That picture very much looks like it's in the states, judging by...well, basically everything. The trailer has an underrun protection bar so can't be the US
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 09:19 |
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I don't normally bother too much with the war updates, but there was a rather interesting article in today's Finnish YLE news (available only in Finnish) that I think offered a refreshing reminder that the war won't be decided purely by Ukraine getting western war materiel (which they should get), but also by the level of training that the troops receive. YLE interviewed a retired Finnish officer and two Finnish soldiers (all in Ukraine) and their outlook on the training methods of Ukrainian troops was rather pessimistic, even scathing in parts. https://yle.fi/a/74-20019659 (Translation mostly by Microsoft Edge:) quote:According to a Finnish officer, Ukraine lacks the skill to attack and therefore the war ends in a bitter surprise – "Russia will not lose this war"
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 09:22 |
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Finns agree: Finland is amazing. In all seriousness, it seems unlikely Ukraine would be turning down training opportunities from western allies, if said allies are paying for the training. The ball is probably in Finland's court, they need to offer.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 09:45 |
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Two soviet armies crashing into each other with both incapable of doing maneuver warfare and relegated to essentially low scale platoon and company level trench warfare.
Charlotte Hornets fucked around with this message at 09:55 on Feb 28, 2023 |
# ? Feb 28, 2023 09:52 |
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curious, closed airspace over St. Petersburg https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1630487060007067648 https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630481631306711040 also another blown up oil depot near Tuapse - 430+ km from Ukraine-controlled territory (mentioned earlier in linked thread) Edit: open now Dwesa fucked around with this message at 10:45 on Feb 28, 2023 |
# ? Feb 28, 2023 09:58 |
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I do think it's entirely possible that Ukraine may have issues with its legacy Soviet system - the office manager turned platoon leader diaries weren't shy about talking about issues with old Soviet officers that seem to just follow the rules or otherwise don't apparently know what they're doing, and many of his diary entries speak to rushed training and a great deal of confusion about what's going on. Part of that is just war of course, but it may well be that some of that is also inadequate training and communication between units. That being said, one thing about that article and that high-ranking officer in particular? We're talking about a high-ranking officer who's retired and decided to volunteer in Ukraine at retirement age, with a very outspoken and pessimistic opinion about Ukraine's current ability to fight. I kinda suspects when he talks about how the Ukrainians are unable to take criticism, there's a reason why his interpreter suggests that maybe he shouldn't be so blunt. Gives the impression of a strong personality that isn't entirely at home with the concept of tact. Not saying he's necessarily wrong about anything else, but it's possible that another trainer may find the Ukrainians less resistant to his suggestions.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 09:59 |
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Tomn posted:
The stereotypical Finnish officer is an insufferable rear end in a top hat, so wouldn't be surprised if that was the case with him. Either way, it's good to be reminded that we're getting a rather curated view of the war effort from purely Ukrainian sources.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 10:05 |
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Some retired Finnish officer lacking in social skills? No way, unthinkable.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 10:13 |
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It's weird working with the Finnish Defense Forces. They're doing universal 19 year old male conscription two generations after the rest of the Nordics, and have like 10x the budget. I bet we're just not used to the kind of officer that fosters. Also, Finns lol Groda fucked around with this message at 10:29 on Feb 28, 2023 |
# ? Feb 28, 2023 10:19 |
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Dwesa posted:curious, closed airspace over St. Petersburg It had me wondering if Russians aren't in a super jumpy mode after that AWACS got wrecked... or if someone is actually doing something nefarious in the area.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 10:28 |
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Groda posted:It's weird working with the Finnish Defense Forces. They're doing universal 19 year old male conscription two generations after the rest of the Nordics, and have like 10x the budget. We're also considering expanding it to women now.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 10:35 |
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Cicero posted:In all seriousness, it seems unlikely Ukraine would be turning down training opportunities from western allies, if said allies are paying for the training. The ball is probably in Finland's court, they need to offer. Yeah I think Finland should do more. Some training would be good, not just materiel. Also with the materiel Finland doesn't officially comment on what they're giving, so it's hard to figure out how useful the aid is. For example, Finland has approx 100 Leopard 2A6 tanks and 139 2A4's (source: Wikipedia). Of the latter, probably half (I guess) could be donated to Ukraine without it being an issue. Whether it's an issue or not, more communication on the decision making here and also more openness would be nice.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 10:53 |
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weirdly chilly pussy posted:I don't normally bother too much with the war updates, but there was a rather interesting article in today's Finnish YLE news (available only in Finnish) that I think offered a refreshing reminder that the war won't be decided purely by Ukraine getting western war materiel (which they should get), but also by the level of training that the troops receive. The fact that they've used Kenneth Grägg as a source makes the whole thing a bit suspicious, because he's a known serial fraudster.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 12:15 |
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jaete posted:Yeah I think Finland should do more. Some training would be good, not just materiel. Also with the materiel Finland doesn't officially comment on what they're giving, so it's hard to figure out how useful the aid is. IF all those tanks are in decent enough condition, then sure. But given recent revelations, that's probably a big IF. I don't expect cartoonish incompetence like in Spain from a non-NATO member bordering Russia, but it also wouldn't surprise me if at least some of those tanks are inoperable, making the margins too tight to give more than a token number of tanks to Ukraine.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 12:32 |
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jaete posted:For example, Finland has approx 100 Leopard 2A6 tanks and 139 2A4's (source: Wikipedia). Of the latter, probably half (I guess) could be donated to Ukraine without it being an issue. What makes you think that Finnish doctrine allows for over a quarter of the entire tank force to go missing??? Finland is trying to build up fighting capability, not lose it. There are no spare tanks.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 12:37 |
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jaete posted:Yeah I think Finland should do more. Some training would be good, not just materiel. Also with the materiel Finland doesn't officially comment on what they're giving, so it's hard to figure out how useful the aid is. It has been mentioned I believe that while Finland may have stuff that could be sent, in light of current events the Finnish government appears understandably reluctant to weaken their own defenses much further. It's one of the big ironies of the war really - the very fact that Ukraine is under attack and needs tanks makes countries, especially countries bordering Russia, reluctant to send them tanks because it turns out they might very well need them.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 12:41 |
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According to Russian MOD the air space closure around St. Petersburg was due to air force exercises:quote:In a statement issued about an hour after flights had restarted, the Defense Ministry said it had been carrying out exercises that involved the dispatch of fighter jets in Russia's western air space. https://www.dw.com/en/russia-flights-resume-to-st-petersburg-after-air-shutdown/a-64838547 I don't know, but would they just do exercises like that on seemingly short, or no, notice above a major city? Or is it just an excuse/lie to not disclose the real story?
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 12:52 |
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Torrannor posted:IF all those tanks are in decent enough condition, then sure. But given recent revelations, that's probably a big IF. I don't expect cartoonish incompetence like in Spain from a non-NATO member bordering Russia, but it also wouldn't surprise me if at least some of those tanks are inoperable, making the margins too tight to give more than a token number of tanks to Ukraine. I would be very surprised if those Leopards would be in any way inoperable, beyond standard maintenance and upgrade rotation reasons. A lot of the gear and vehicles are old and used but they are well maintained. Also at least from a soldiers perspective every single item is always accounted for and in the books. There is paperwork about everything and the officers in charge of the gear seemed to take their jobs beyond seriously. Lose anything and there will be a report.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 13:15 |
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Ukraine keeps probing deep Russian air defenses with even more daring drone strikes https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1630545767604670467?t=ERqBMwili6E3gnR-Tt10-Q&s=19
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 13:55 |
WarpedLichen posted:Just curious if the UK are reclassifying things/adding new categories or line item adding stuff that get found. Pretty sure it's line items that get found, maybe then expanded into like “hey, Russia probably doesn't need access to this boutique drone controller manufacturer at all”. While this is a bit of a “15 in 10 Finns agree that Finland won the Finno-Korean hyperwar”, Ukrainian domestic discourse is increasingly grappling with the subject of 8 years of “NATO-fication” of their army involving a considerable level of wishful thing.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 13:58 |
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fatherboxx posted:Ukraine keeps probing deep Russian air defenses with even more daring drone strikes "If launched from Ukrainian territory" may be doing some heavy lifting here. Is it more probable that the drone was launched by operators who have infiltrated Russia with the equipment, rather than a long distance drone?
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 14:23 |
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Bug Squash posted:"If launched from Ukrainian territory" may be doing some heavy lifting here. Is it more probable that the drone was launched by operators who have infiltrated Russia with the equipment, rather than a long distance drone? It’s wheeled, so they’d have to set up enough of a runway for it to take off. Idk how long that is, but that sounds like the exact thing you’d want to avoid having to do if you’re trying to stay unnoticed.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 14:27 |
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The Finnish officer's assessment isn't surprising, and people like Michael Koffman* assess that a future Ukrainian offensive is more likely to look like the Kherson Offensive than the Kharkiv Offensive. There's only so much you can train in a handful of weeks, and while Ukraine has been trying to change its military culture for 8 years, changing a military institutional culture is hard, and fails as often as it succeeds (see: Russia). That said, there's definitely a tone of, "I am very smart why aren't they listening to me?" Being right isn't sufficient; you need to convince your audience/students, and that's a different skill. I also had to a bit about his comment that reduced to "lol just flank". Yeah, that's easy on a video game: it's much harder when you're faced with a solid front of trenchworks backed by artillery and ATGMs. What Ukraine needs isn't operational proficiency at flanking; they need tactical proficiency at breaching and operaitonal proficiency at exploitation. Kharkiv seemed to demonstrate the latter. I don't know if they have the former, though that recent US DOD budget assessment showing the US buying a lot of mine-clearing charges is promising. * I know I cite him a lot, but he's good.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 14:29 |
fish and chips and dip posted:According to Russian MOD the air space closure around St. Petersburg was due to air force exercises: They forced civilian commercial aircraft to divert and delay. At the very least there will be costly damage claims. Assuming russian commercial airlines have the balls to sue the government. RBA-Wintrow fucked around with this message at 14:46 on Feb 28, 2023 |
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 14:43 |
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Not terribly thorough piece but Peskov is complaining that Macron and Scholz are not contacting Putin as much. Optics wise, perhaps alleviate early accusations that this is a West-driven war and the NATO powers would dictate the peace. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/02/28/7391319/ Peskov: “We have heard a lot of statements from Scholz and Macron, who said they would continue to speak with Putin in order to look for some ways out of the situation. However, there have been no initiatives recently." “Everybody has to know this: there were no requests or considerations of possible time frames for such a conversation.” Macron in particular took a lot of flak early on for his failed attempts to show himself as the peace broker for Europe. Granted, it was folly to ever believe that Putin was being an honest broker in those early talks.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 15:33 |
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https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1630550311977852928 a unintended/opportunist coup in Moldova would raise Russian morale, but on net would seem to diminish its geopolitical position. It doesn't present many military advantages whilst seriously irking NATO and to a lesser extent also China
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 16:02 |
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SmokingFrog0641 posted:Not terribly thorough piece but Peskov is complaining that Macron and Scholz are not contacting Putin as much. Optics wise, perhaps alleviate early accusations that this is a West-driven war and the NATO powers would dictate the peace. Apparently, telephones in Russia only work one way. Odd. Otherwise, Putin could pick one up and call Macron if he wanted to talk.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 16:04 |
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Ynglaur posted:* I know I cite him a lot, but he's good. He's the most grounded of all the Mil analysts and appreciates nuance. He's got a certain knack for assessing Russian commanders' competencies that makes for good opinions on current events. He is good.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 16:12 |
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Deteriorata posted:Apparently, telephones in Russia only work one way. Odd. Putin can only be bothered to engage in monologue diatribes or engage in dialogue where he’s being kowtowed to. He needs Peskov to plead on his behalf. Really it’s probably about the regime putting out a spin about how they are the victims and no one will come speak with dear honest Russia. Why should Russia be serious about peace when no one of the real pushers of the conflict will even speak with them, etc, etc.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 16:20 |
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# ? May 23, 2024 17:15 |
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Deteriorata posted:Apparently, telephones in Russia only work one way. Odd. The Almighty Tsar shouldn't have to prostrate himself before other leaders. Instead they should come to the imperial capitol and kowtow to him, offering tribute and concessions, before he deigns to hear them.
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# ? Feb 28, 2023 16:23 |