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A small update on the plane explosion in Belarus. Belarusian MFA now call the entire thing fake, while anti-Lukashenko media claim the police are already looking for a suspect and his car. The police are not disclosing why they are looking for anyone, but it does look like it's related to the drone attack, since the person in question happens to be from Sevastopol. BYPOL who took responsibility for the attack say the person have no relation to them and is probably just some random nobody, although I don't imagine they would have confirmed anything even if he was involved. BYPOL also claim that everyone who worked on the attack have already safely left the country.
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Feb 28, 2023 16:56
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fatherboxx posted:Ukraine keeps probing deep Russian air defenses with even more daring drone strikes So are the Ukranians going to be targeting Russia civilian infrastructure with the drones? How does hitting a gas compressor help with the war beyond payback for hitting Ukranian civilian infrastructure? Willo567 fucked around with this message at 17:08 on Feb 28, 2023 |
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Feb 28, 2023 17:01
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Paladinus posted:A small update on the plane explosion in Belarus. Belarusian MFA now call the entire thing fake, while anti-Lukashenko media claim the police are already looking for a suspect and his car. The police are not disclosing why they are looking for anyone, but it does look like it's related to the drone attack, since the person in question happens to be from Sevastopol. Is that a normal BY car plate? It looks different from the ones I see in Poland
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Feb 28, 2023 17:04
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Mokotow posted:Is that a normal BY car plate? It looks different from the ones I see in Poland It's a transition license number. The photos are from when the car was sold by the previous owner.
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Feb 28, 2023 17:09
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Willo567 posted:So are the Ukranians going to be targeting Russia civilian infrastructure with the drones? How does hitting a gas compressor help with the war beyond payback for hitting Ukranian civilian infrastructure? https://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/detail.php?aircraft_id=2464 This info sheet says that UAV isn’t equipped with weapons and can only carry 20 kg of equipment.
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Feb 28, 2023 17:12
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Willo567 posted:So are the Ukranians going to be targeting Russia civilian infrastructure with the drones? How does hitting a gas compressor help with the war beyond payback for hitting Ukranian civilian infrastructure? To date they’ve been using them to hit military airports and grounded strategic bombers.
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Feb 28, 2023 17:16
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Boris Galerkin posted:https://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/detail.php?aircraft_id=2464
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Feb 28, 2023 17:18
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Willo567 posted:Then what's the point of sending the drone that far, is it just a psyop campaign to scare the Kremlin? Tells you the state of their air defense, and gather intel.
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Feb 28, 2023 17:21
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Tigey posted:The Almighty Tsar shouldn't have to prostrate himself before other leaders. Instead they should come to the imperial capitol and kowtow to him, offering tribute and concessions, before he deigns to hear them. There's a certain perceived potential zero sum element to these sorts of phone calls. If it's a call to clarify something, it's just a call. But if the initiating party wants something and the called party rebuffs, there's a possible "loss of face" that the calling party wants to avoid. Typically then, agendas are worked out beforehand by dip minions so that neither party has to deal with something unexpected. To give an idea of how much a simple phone call is a kabuki dance, the calls are coordinated by lower level officials to ensure that both principals pick up the phone at the same time: if one principal has to wait for the other principal to come to the phone, that's a loss of face. So phone calls are coordinated well in advance at lower levels. If Russia is publicly complaining that France or Germany isn't calling them, it really means that the embassy or ministry officials are not really engaging much at their levels, or if they are, there are no opportunities to explore with a mere phone call. If Russia wanted substantive discussions, effort would be made at those lower levels. So in effect, Russia is just laying the groundwork to paint themselves as the aggrieved victim who wants and wishes for peace but can't penetrate the west's obstructionist warmongering.
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Feb 28, 2023 17:29
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Willo567 posted:Then what's the point of sending the drone that far, is it just a psyop campaign to scare the Kremlin? Could also be a Russian psy-op since I think the claims are coming from Russian officials, I guess they've staged downings before to drum up hysteria. https://www.stopfake.org/en/fake-ukrainian-uj-22-airborne-drone-shot-down-over-kursk-province/
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Feb 28, 2023 17:43
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Boris Galerkin posted:https://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/detail.php?aircraft_id=2464 Can't it still carry an explosive payload? That's what Dmitri Alperovitch says https://mobile.twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1630559843487547397 Willo567 fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Feb 28, 2023 |
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Feb 28, 2023 19:41
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Just because it fell near some civillian infrastructure doesn't mean it was targeting it.
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Feb 28, 2023 19:50
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RedSnapper posted:Just because it fell near some civillian infrastructure doesn't mean it was targeting it. And without knowing more details we don't know if it can keep flying autonomously on a course if it loses connection (until it has no fuel).
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Feb 28, 2023 19:54
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Willo567 posted:Then what's the point of sending the drone that far, is it just a psyop campaign to scare the Kremlin? From a cursory look at the map, there's an obvious ammo dump just south-southwest of Voskresensk, where this thing landed. I'm saying landed, because from the tracks in the snow it looks like it took a relatively gentle tumble rather than being blown to smithereens. My hunch is, it was snooping either around the ammo dump in Gorodki, next to Karasovo station or the nearby artillery training grounds south of Kolomna before running out of fuel.
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Feb 28, 2023 20:01
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:I'm saying landed, because from the tracks in the snow it looks like it took a relatively gentle tumble rather than being blown to smithereens. Don't drones also land if they lose connection to their controller? Maybe it was jammed
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Feb 28, 2023 20:14
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Enjoy posted:Don't drones also land if they lose connection to their controller? Maybe it was jammed That's civilian drones.
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Feb 28, 2023 20:14
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Willo567 posted:Can't it still carry an explosive payload? That's what Dmitri Alperovitch says That drone is mostly used in recon or spotting operations and that payload is geneally various optics and cameras. Of course it most likely could be rigged to carry explosives but that is not the main use case and it is not even implied in that tweet.
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Feb 28, 2023 20:38
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WarpedLichen posted:Could also be a Russian psy-op You talking about the something awful forums? Yeah probably. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 28, 2023 21:00
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Last year a drone flew 350 miles from Ukraine to Croatia which was presumably not planned. It's possible it happened again and it just kept going until it ran out of fuel.
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Feb 28, 2023 21:02
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https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/03/06/how-the-biggest-fraud-in-german-history-unravelled This story is only tangentially related to the actual war in Ukraine. But, much of it takes place after the first invasion and it's absolutely fascinating. It relates to German finance, fraud, ties to Russian security agencies and military contractors like Wagner, and the overall entrenchment of Russian influence and corruption in European affairs, especially in Germany. All centered around a German fintech company called Wirecard which had their fingers in all kinds of poo poo. I'd heard about this story before, but never with this kind of detail. Way too long to post and snips wouldn't make sense since it is a very winding tale, but I hope you may find it as interesting as I did. Also features a quick cameo from our old friend Olaf Schultz. Germany is still attempting to deal with the grip of Russian influence in several spheres (we still regularly hear about figures in finance, law enforcement and politics being investigated, censured or fired for such ties or for getting straight up spies), corruption like this doesn't just go away. But I do find it amusing that launching this war has surely irreparably harmed Russian activities and influence in the country. Just another reason for how stupid it all is.
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Feb 28, 2023 21:22
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I think it’s a big jump from drone -> weapon.
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Feb 28, 2023 21:23
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Willo567 posted:Can't it still carry an explosive payload? That's what Dmitri Alperovitch says "Payload", in this context, doesn't necessarily mean weapons or explosives. The payload could be camera equipment, electronic monitoring devices, etc. This is similar to how we say the space shuttle has a certain maximum payload. It's not because we're carting bombs into space, it's because that's just the word used to mean "this machine can carry this much". Of course, it can also mean weapons and bombs. If the device can carry 20kg of camera equipment then it can very likely carry 20kg of explosives. But it doesn't mean it will, or ever has. I know nothing about this drone, but it's plausible that Ukraine values it more for intelligence gathering than for attacks and thus won't mount weapons on it. (But again, I wouldn't really know.)
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Feb 28, 2023 22:00
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Reznikov's first deputy says that the first AFU Bradley battalion has completed their training. https://t.me/Pavliuk_KSV/3520 Edit: And we have the number for how many Leopard 2s west can get to Ukraine now(ish) – 62 cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 22:15 on Feb 28, 2023 |
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Feb 28, 2023 22:09
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Reznikov's first deputy says that the first AFU Bradley battalion has completed their training. https://t.me/Pavliuk_KSV/3520 The Article posted:Capellan: Or the Chinese, who are presenting a negotiation plan right now. Could you go into that?  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 28, 2023 22:49
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Huh, Saudi Arabia is sending aid to Ukraine. Feel a bit of a “Iran bad” type of gesture, rather than a profound interest to get into the game, but, hey, $400m is $400m. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-26/ukraine-eyes-support-from-saudi-arabia-after-minister-s-visit
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Feb 28, 2023 23:06
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Posting some stuff from Noel: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1630642103330979847?cxt=HHwWjoC2zc-WmqEtAAAA If the Ukrainians really want to hold Bakhmut I wonder if this is too little too late. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1630651276911321105?cxt=HHwWooCxjcysnqEtAAAA A reported UAV attack on an airfield in Yiek which is across the black sea from Mariupol. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1630680966933929986?cxt=HHwWhICzgeTsq6EtAAAA Counter Shahed attacks - I thought the stocks on these were running low?
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Feb 28, 2023 23:20
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Huh, Saudi Arabia is sending aid to Ukraine. Feel a bit of a “Iran bad” type of gesture, rather than a profound interest to get into the game, but, hey, $400m is $400m. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-26/ukraine-eyes-support-from-saudi-arabia-after-minister-s-visit Probably also a little bit of kneecapping some wannabe competition on the energy market too. Also this is brand new for me, but I probably missed it along the way somewhere. quote:The parties also talked about Saudi Arabia’s prior help setting up prisoner swaps with Russia and prospects for additional exchanges, to strengthening both Kyiv’s and Riyadh’s positions in the global south, including Africa.
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Feb 28, 2023 23:22
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Maxar got some imagery of the AWACs in Belarus today. Looks like maybe some damage to the disc but it's probably not going to be out of action for long. https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630600581176762368
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Feb 28, 2023 23:27
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WarpedLichen posted:If the Ukrainians really want to hold Bakhmut I wonder if this is too little too late. Well, it's also what you'd say/do if the plan is to finish evacuating the city, Russia sent more troops to Kherson to protect the withdrawal there: https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1590379076464041984?lang=en
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Feb 28, 2023 23:33
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Huh, Saudi Arabia is sending aid to Ukraine. Feel a bit of a “Iran bad” type of gesture, rather than a profound interest to get into the game, but, hey, $400m is $400m. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-26/ukraine-eyes-support-from-saudi-arabia-after-minister-s-visit In a quite literal way: materiel Iran sends to Russian to use in Ukraine is stuff that does not end up getting used against Saudi Arabia's interests, which were the major thing that Iranian drones and other arms were getting used against previously. Or will get used against, since Iran and KSA are still on track for an eventual direct conflict.
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Feb 28, 2023 23:35
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Whoa, one of the Russian banks in the EU sanctions package is Tinkoff. This is a fairly prominent high street bank. https://www.ft.com/content/a1e75b1f-6431-423e-be8f-b7d0d38b4c66 FT further says that a side consequence of this is that more and more private assets get trapped offshore too, e.g., estimated $100bn in H1 2022.kemikalkadet posted:Maxar got some imagery of the AWACs in Belarus today. Looks like maybe some damage to the disc but it's probably not going to be out of action for long. Icon Of Sin posted:Also this is brand new for me, but I probably missed it along the way somewhere. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-releases-10-foreigners-captured-ukraine-after-saudi-mediation-riyadh-2022-09-21/
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Feb 28, 2023 23:40
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Herstory Begins Now posted:In a quite literal way I get the connection, but I'm not sure if I understand what you're trying to say.
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Feb 28, 2023 23:43
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Herstory Begins Now posted:In a quite literal way: materiel Iran sends to Russian to use in Ukraine is stuff that does not end up getting used against Saudi Arabia's interests, which were the major thing that Iranian drones and other arms were getting used against previously. Or will get used against, since Iran and KSA are still on track for an eventual direct conflict. This material is not one way donation from iran to russia - iran gets something out of this - money, other weapons systems, other assistance, etc - stuff they wont let us know about, but its probably of interest to the Saudis to find out and get pissed at.
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Mar 1, 2023 00:10
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numptyboy posted:This material is not one way donation from iran to russia - iran gets something out of this - money, other weapons systems, other assistance, etc - stuff they wont let us know about, but its probably of interest to the Saudis to find out and get pissed at. CIA says that Russia may have offered Iran help with their missile programme, or to get them some jets. https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-offering-iran-missile-program-help-exchange-weapons-ukraine-cia-2023-2 fish and chips and dip posted:According to Russian MOD the air space closure around St. Petersburg was due to air force exercises: Russian media (the one's still operating legally in the country) are very politely not buying into this version, it seems. There was a similar situation in the Leningrad oblast' earliest this month, and that time they were scrambling jets in response to a reported unknown aerial object. https://spb.mk.ru/social/2023/02/28/plan-kover-kak-v-peterburge-zakryvali-nebo-nad-pulkovo-i-lovili-nlo.html
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Mar 1, 2023 00:13
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HonorableTB posted:I'm glad that Girkin's posts are allowed at least (personally, I could do with or without Solovyov and Simonyan, they are largely wind bags) because I have always interpreted Girkin to be the mouthpiece of the FSB in the Kremlin's internal posting wars. Wagner has Prigozhin doing the PR himself, and I guess the RU Ministry of Defense is represented by a combination of Peskov and MoD releases, with..I guess Kadyrov being the mouthpiece for the hardliners? This reminds me a lot of the same kind of Kremlinology that was everywhere in the Cold War. I lived in RU, have degrees in this area, speak Russian, and what the Kremlin is doing is still largely a mystery. I have no idea how people did it in the past without the flow of information we have now Not sure I fully agree with you, to circle back to this post. Peskov is like this immortal, untouchable herald-lich of Putin himselv, since it's a bit beneath Putin's blue blood to, you know, randomly talk to people in his country. I would very explicitly not consider him to represent any faction, since factions in Russia exist inasmuch as Putin deems them useful. Girkin-FSB sure, why not. Can't say I'm particularly invested in this angle, but he definitely has friends (and certainly not in MoD, which also is a distinct faction from FSB), and he's worked for FSB for decades, and not on the dullest things either. MoD is, well, MoD. Shoygu is the face of both the MoD and the MIC (recall, he replaced the last minister whose failure was angering MIC), and going to lower level than that lands you basically immediately into various Z-bloggers (which themselves are split like 50/50 between the MoD faction and the hardliners) Hardliners now, as in "global nuclear war, nao" types, would be Patrushev and Gerasimov (and kind-of logically overlapping with MoD, especially when MoD is doing well enough). This is where you get another bunch of Z-bloggers, and giants of literary thought like Medvedev or Rogozin. Kadyrov, on the other hand, represents the amalgamation of interests of the Caucasus region and Russia's Muslims*. And, most importantly, his own interests. He's historically been a Putin's man, but, well, 2022 saw some changes in the political landscape in Russia, and I'm personally interpreting his ascension within Rosgvardiya as an attempt at strengthening his relationship with the hardliners. * We're not going to dissect Caucasian local politics in this thread. 
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Mar 1, 2023 00:26
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Kadyrov also has been implicated in killings or reporters and opposition figures, and there was a rumor folks loyal to him were housed near the kremlin as some sort of QRF. Hes seemingly transcended being the guy to keep the lid on Chechnya to a source of muscle outside the traditional powers in intelligence and the military.
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Mar 1, 2023 01:27
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freeasinbeer posted:Kadyrov also has been implicated in killings or reporters and opposition figures, and there was a rumor folks loyal to him were housed near the kremlin as some sort of QRF. He's someone Putin absolutely trusts: Putin funnels a relatively large amount of money to Chechnya which Kadyrov uses to keep the peace by maintaining his private militia. Every Chechen hates him because everyone has lost a family member to his thugs, so if Putin loses power and stops subsidizing him Kadyrov will die very quickly. He's also relatively competent at his job, which means he can loan out the Kadyrovtsi to different tasks Putin gives him. Much like Shoigu he is a political outsider and non-Russian so can't threaten Putin directly. Morrow fucked around with this message at 01:42 on Mar 1, 2023 |
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Mar 1, 2023 01:36
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freeasinbeer posted:Kadyrov also has been implicated in killings or reporters and opposition figures, and there was a rumor folks loyal to him were housed near the kremlin as some sort of QRF. Kadyrov's mafia is useful for plausible deniability. But then again, with Nemtsov assassination, much like as with all the remedial theatre class pornography we saw of the “casus belli” videos in January 2022, they killed him in broad daylight in the square mile of Russia with the highest concentration of cops and cameras out of anywhere.
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Mar 1, 2023 01:48
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oh hey, someone took that regional death map and added per-capita visualization like i wanted and oof https://twitter.com/azamatistan/status/1630721273264484352/photo/1
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Mar 1, 2023 01:54
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WarpedLichen posted:A reported UAV attack on an airfield in Yiek which is across the black sea from Mariupol. 
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