War in Ukraine: thread feedback session open unttil Saturday (i'll regret this)

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fizzy: Dec 2, 2022; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Round-up of news of the day

President of Ukraine

quote:

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/gotuyemo-povernennya-nashih-voyiniv-do-aktivnih-dij-zaradi-z-81361

We are preparing the return of our warriors to actions for the liberation of our land - address by the President of Ukraine
28 February 2023 - 22:48

�

Today, I held a regular meeting of the Staff. Again in an expanded format. The Main Intelligence Directorate, the Ministry of Defense, the Commander-in-Chief, and the commanders of directions delivered reports. We are dealing in detail with the situation on each of the frontline directions.

The most difficult situation is still Bakhmut and the battles that are important for the defense of the city.

I'll give you just one example. Nowadays, the meetings of the Staff are held quite often - at least twice a week. The last meeting was on Thursday. And today, General Syrskyi reported that since the last meeting, about 800 enemies have been killed in his direction alone.

Russia does not count people at all, sending them to constantly storm our positions. The intensity of fighting is only increasing.

I thank all Ukrainian warriors who, despite this insane pressure from the occupier, are defending our positions and destroying the Russian army! I thank each and every one who supports our warriors!

Of course, we also considered other areas in Donbas, as well as the areas of responsibility of the Tavria and Odesa groups. General Moskalyov reported on the situation around Kherson and the region. This day there were more than 30 Russian shelling occasions in the Kherson region! They were shelling just streets, just people. My condolences to all those who have lost their loved ones. Today we have already lost four people. We will do everything to suppress the terrorists.

General Nayev reported on the situation in the north and along the border - our forces are in control of the situation.

As always, we reviewed in detail the logistics for the frontline and the coverage of deficits.

�

US Department of Defense

quote:

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3313904/defense-officials-us-ensures-accountability-of-systems-supplied-to-ukraine

Defense Officials: U.S. Ensures Accountability of Systems Supplied to Ukraine
Feb. 28, 2023 | By David Vergun , DOD News

The United States has provided $31.7 billion in support since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine a year ago. Allies and partners have provided over $19 billion during that timeframe.

"Even as we focus on getting Ukraine what it needs, we've always prioritized accountability, and Ukraine has, too. We have adapted our accountability practices for the combat environment to address the risk of illicit diversion, using mechanisms that go above and beyond our standard practices," Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin H. Kahl today told the House Armed Services Committee.

Kahl said U.S. officials have had talks with their Ukrainian counterparts for years regarding the issue of corruption and the importance of accountability and transparency.

"I think there have been improvements over time, especially in the defense sector," he said.

The U.S. has provided the Ukrainians with ways to track the military systems it provides, he said. Tracking includes scanners and software, as well as remote visits to sites when conditions permit.

"We don't see any evidence of diversion in our reporting," Kahl said. "We think the Ukrainians are using properly what they've been given," he said.

�

Reuters

quote:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russians-intensify-assault-bakhmut-ukrainian-forces-try-dig-2023-03-01/

Russians intensify assault on Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces try to dig in
March 1

March 1 (Reuters) - Russian forces carried out continuous attacks on the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut in their quest for a breakthrough in the year-long war, and one U.S. official predicted few short-term territorial gains for Russia.

Ukrainian aircraft launched three strikes on areas of concentration of Russian forces, according to a statement by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Tuesday night.

Bakhmut had a pre-war population of around 70,000 but has been ruined during months of fighting as a focal point of Russian assaults and determined Ukrainian defence.

�

In Washington, senior U.S. defence official Colin Kahl told a congressional hearing on Tuesday that the front lines of the war were a "grinding slog" and there was nothing to suggest "the Russians can sweep across Ukraine and make significant territorial gains anytime in the next year or so."

Kahl spoke during a hearing focused on oversight of the nearly $32 billion in military aid President Joe Biden's administration has provided to Ukraine since Russia's invasion on Feb. 24 last year, including drones, long-range artillery systems, and air defence capabilities.

Guardian

quote:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/28/world-war-one-relentless-battle-for-bakhmut-ukraine

�If you don�t burrow in you die pretty quickly�: the relentless battle for Bakhmut

Oleh Bendyk showed off a video taken in Ukraine�s eastern forests. It shows a group of soldiers from Bendyk�s 103rd brigade sheltering in a sandy trench. Around them a battle rages. There are explosions, booms, and the rattle of small arms fire. A grad missile crashes down among the pine trees, in a large orange fireball.

�Some bastards are firing at us from over there. But we can�t see who they are because of the forest,� a soldier says. He adds: �A Grad now! Do you see how we get hit? It�s been like this since 7am. And now it�s 11am. That�s how it loving is, folks!�

Bendyk and his fellow Ukrainian soldiers have been holding off a surging Russian offensive west of Kreminna, a city that Moscow captured last year. Further along the same front, Ukrainian soldiers are doggedly defending the town of Bakhmut, once home to 70,000 people. Fighting has gone on there for months.

�

�That was an ordinary day,� Bendyk said of the hellish forest video, shot in late January. �Some days are a lot worse, when our guys get injured or killed. The Russians have a lot of artillery. They go quadrant by quadrant. We need more counter-battery fire.�

Other videos filmed by his brigade show soldiers trudging cheerfully through thick snow, trundling along in an armoured personnel carrier, and shrieking in terror when a military helicopter flies low above their car, missing them by a few metres. �Suka Bliad!�, one serviceman screams � �loving hell!�

Bendyk also shared with the Guardian footage of an enemy tank captured in the city of Izium during last autumn�s dramatic counter-offensive in the north-east Kharkiv province. There are destroyed vehicles and a clip of a wounded serviceman.

The Russians have mostly encircled Bakhmut from three directions. They can shell the only road in and out of the town, a precarious supply route. It is unclear if Ukraine can hang on or will be forced to withdraw. Last weekend Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Russian oligarch and Wagner�s founder, said his private troops had captured the village of Yahidne, on Bakhmut�s northern outskirts. Ukraine�s military command denies this, but acknowledges Russia is trying to advance, and grinding forward where it can, settlement by settlement.

�They have a lot of artillery. We won�t let Bakhmut fall,� Malesh � a 23-year-old Ukrainian soldier said, speaking during a short break from the frontline. He had travelled 25 miles west to the Ukrainian-controlled city of Kramatorsk and was shopping in a supermarket. Street to street fighting was taking place in Bakhmut, he said. �The Russians are 150 metres from us in some places. We don�t see them but we can hear their voices,� he said.

�

Most analysts think the Kremlin�s ambition to reach the border of Donetsk province is unlikely to succeed. They cite logistical difficulties and a lack of Russian infantry. Just west of Bakhmut, Ukraine has constructed a formidable defensive system and trench network. It sits in front of an urban agglomeration that includes Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the latter city briefly seized by Russian groups in summer 2014.

�

Washington Post

quote:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/28/republicans-ukraine-biden-pentagon/

Congress presses Pentagon on Biden�s reluctance to give Ukraine F-16s
By Dan Lamothe
Updated February 28, 2023 at 5:35 p.m. EST
Published February 28, 2023 at 7:00 a.m. EST

Ukrainian forces would need at least 18 months to learn how to fly and maintain F-16 fighter jets in combat, a senior Pentagon official told Congress on Tuesday as the Biden administration continued to fend off questions about why a frequent request from Kyiv and, increasingly, some American politicians remains unfulfilled.

The issue has dogged the administration for months, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to make regular public pleas for the planes and U.S. lawmakers question why Ukrainian pilots are not in training to learn how they operate.

�I do think this conversation will continue,� Colin Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, explained to members of the House Armed Services Committee. In a best-case scenario, he said, older F-16s could be transferred within about 18 months. To purchase and deliver new ones, he noted, could take up to six years, adding that U.S. Air Force personnel have assessed that for Ukraine to upgrade its fleet of fighter aircraft, it probably will need about 80 jets.

�It�s just hard for me to tell any member of Congress, of the American public, that the best use of that dollar spent right now is on F-16s,� Kahl said.

�

New York Times

quote:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/28/us/politics/ukraine-congress-military-spending-republicans-democrats.html

Lawmakers Question Pentagon on Ukraine Funds, Signaling Fresh Doubts
By Karoun Demirjian
Feb. 28, 2023, 7:18 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON � Republicans in Congress sharply questioned senior Pentagon officials on Tuesday about the tens of billions of dollars in military and other aid the United States has sent to Ukraine, casting doubt on whether they would embrace future spending as Democrats pleaded for a cleareyed assessment of how much more money would be needed.

The exchanges at committee hearings, coming just days after the anniversary of Russia�s invasion of Ukraine, highlighted how concerns about the high cost of sending weapons to Kyiv have intensified on Capitol Hill. The growing doubts have threatened what was once a strong bipartisan consensus in favor of the aid and could make it more difficult for the Biden administration to win congressional approval of funds to replenish its military assistance accounts. The funding inflection point could come as soon as this summer, months earlier than previously expected.

The hearings also illustrated how members of both parties, despite expressing confidence that a majority in Congress remains committed to supporting Ukraine, are concerned that a determined minority � including right-wing Republicans who eschew U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts and liberal antiwar Democrats � may weaken that resolve if the war continues to drag on.
On Tuesday at a hearing of the House Armed Services Committee, Representative Mike D. Rogers, of Alabama, the chairman, took the unorthodox step of handing over his question time to Representative Andrew Clyde, an outspoken critic of funding for Ukraine who does not sit on the panel. Mr. Clyde, a Georgia Republican, quizzed a top Defense Department official about allegations of lost and diverted weapons, whistle-blowers, and fraud.

�Accountability of the weapons shipped in is absolutely paramount, especially the most sensitive weapons, to ensure they are being used for their intended purposes and not diverted for nefarious purposes,� Mr. Clyde told Robert P. Storch, the Pentagon�s inspector general.

Pledges to send tanks, the grinding nature of the war on the ground and a steady clamor from certain corners of Congress to greenlight advanced systems for Ukraine have threatened to drain war funds at a faster clip than appropriators anticipated last December, when lawmakers approved about $45 billion in military and other assistance, projecting it would last until the end of September.

The steep price tag of the war has prompted Congress to issue a battery of oversight requirements for information about how the money has been spent, some of which has been provided to lawmakers. Yet few of those details have reached the public.

�We�re all concerned about accountability,� said Representative Joe Wilson, Republican of South Carolina, who has supported Ukraine funding ventures in the past. �Please, let�s get this publicized so the American people can trust what the expenditures are.�

The accelerating spending and dearth of detailed information have fueled the resolve of several naysayers, who doubled down this week on a campaign to cast the Ukraine assistance program as a failed boondoggle, with the apparent tacit blessing of party leaders.

Mr. Storch and other Pentagon officials testified that there had been no substantiated instances of sensitive weapons being diverted for ill purposes, but his statements did not silence the critics.
�You cannot testify that we have complied with the end-use monitoring requirements at all times during this conflict, can you?� insisted Representative Matt Gaetz, Republican of Florida, accusing Mr. Storch of dodging.

Democrats, too, voiced concerns on Tuesday, pleading with Pentagon leaders to be straight with them about how much more money lawmakers could expect to be asked to approve for Ukraine.

�How many more times do you think Congress needs to provide aid?� Representative Ro Khanna, Democrat of California, asked Colin H. Kahl, the under secretary of defense for policy, during his appearance before the Armed Services panel. �What do you think, at the end, is the end game?�

The questioning was mirrored by some Democrats on the House Appropriations panel that oversees military spending posed similar questions to Celeste Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs.

�How much bigger would the bill be?� asked Representative Ed Case, Democrat of Hawaii, expressing concern about the administration�s successive requests for more aid. �We have to at least anticipate that possibility that we would see a higher bill next year.�

Pentagon leaders were reluctant to commit to either a figure or a timeline upon which they would be seeking additional funds, saying that the vagaries of the war made it impossible to commit to a schedule.

�I don�t have a sense of whether it would be higher or reduced; I just know that we are planning for the kind of effective deterrent force that Ukraine will need,� Ms. Wallander said.

Mr. Kahl suggested that the demands of some lawmakers to step up military assistance to Ukraine could further complicate the Biden administration�s efforts to keep the war effort supplied.

�

# ? Mar 1, 2023 02:39

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# ? May 27, 2024 02:42

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Not sure I fully agree with you, to circle back to this post.

Peskov is like this immortal, untouchable herald-lich of Putin himselv, since it's a bit beneath Putin's blue blood to, you know, randomly talk to people in his country. I would very explicitly not consider him to represent any faction, since factions in Russia exist inasmuch as Putin deems them useful.

Girkin-FSB sure, why not. Can't say I'm particularly invested in this angle, but he definitely has friends (and certainly not in MoD, which also is a distinct faction from FSB), and he's worked for FSB for decades, and not on the dullest things either.

MoD is, well, MoD. Shoygu is the face of both the MoD and the MIC (recall, he replaced the last minister whose failure was angering MIC), and going to lower level than that lands you basically immediately into various Z-bloggers (which themselves are split like 50/50 between the MoD faction and the hardliners)

Hardliners now, as in "global nuclear war, nao" types, would be Patrushev and Gerasimov (and kind-of logically overlapping with MoD, especially when MoD is doing well enough). This is where you get another bunch of Z-bloggers, and giants of literary thought like Medvedev or Rogozin.

Kadyrov, on the other hand, represents the amalgamation of interests of the Caucasus region and Russia's Muslims*. And, most importantly, his own interests. He's historically been a Putin's man, but, well, 2022 saw some changes in the political landscape in Russia, and I'm personally interpreting his ascension within Rosgvardiya as an attempt at strengthening his relationship with the hardliners.

* We're not going to dissect Caucasian local politics in this thread.

Thank you for this breakdown, very informative

# ? Mar 1, 2023 03:14

Vaginaface: Aug 26, 2013; HEY REI HEY REI,
do vaginaface!

cinci zoo sniper posted:

War in Ukraine: Not interested, but $400m is $400m.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 06:25

nahuman: Nov 13, 2011

https://yle.fi/a/74-20020165

A few comments in Finnish media about the earlier article.

quote:

Finnish officer disparaged Ukraine's war skills - this is how Toveri and K�ihk� commented
Ukraine does not have enough know-how for mobile warfare, but neither does Russia, says military expert Pekka Toveri.

After more than a year of full-scale Russian aggression in Ukraine, it has turned into a war of position, with the frontline barely moving.
A high-ranking Finnish officer interviewed by Yle in Ukraine believes that the Ukrainian armed forces do not have enough expertise for mobile warfare.
Major General evp.�Pekka Tover says that the liberation of Russian-occupied territories has required Ukrainian expertise, but he admits that Ukraine still has a lot to learn in mobile warfare.
- I have wondered why there is such a bullish hold on positions somewhere in Bahmut, because the town is quite insignificant," Toveri says.
The explanation may be that Ukrainians do what they know how to do. If it suits both sides, they'll stay in the war.
- I have not seen any operational army-level command posts in Ukraine that are suited to mobile warfare. It is much more difficult than being in a static position, Toveri says.
Toveri is a former intelligence chief of the General Staff and now a parliamentary candidate for the Coalition Party.

K�ihk�: Ukraine lacks evidence of aggression
Ilmari K�ihk�, associate professor of military science, also says Ukraine has not proven its ability to conduct mobile warfare. According to him, Ukraine's victories have mainly come in situations where Russian troops have retreated.
- We are now in a war of attrition. Mobile warfare is the only way to make quick gains. Movement is the only way to resolve the situation," says K�ihk�.
K�ihk� is a visiting researcher at the University of Helsinki's Alexander Institute.
If neither side can take the initiative, the brutal war will continue without a solution. According to K�ihk�, the result will be a "bloody stalemate".
- If there is no ability to conduct a maneuver war, the war will be prolonged, and then you have to ask whose side time is on," says K�ihk�.

A commander does not try to do what the troops cannot do
Getting stuck on the current front line will be costly in the long run, but there may be no alternative.
According to Toveri, it is also a skill that commanders do not try to do what the troops cannot do.
- If you conclude that there is no point in going into business warfare with these (soldiers) because they are lost in the woods or can't coordinate fire, then fight the way this force can fight, Toveri says.
According to Toveri, even Russia does not know how to conduct mobile warfare and the level of training of the Russian armed forces is poor anyway, so the problems are not just in Ukraine.

Toveri: Ukraine's combat capability is somewhere between a bleak and a shredded media image
A Finnish officer interviewed by Yle in Kiev believes that the problems are caused by poor training and leadership of the Ukrainian armed forces.
He does not believe that Ukraine's combat capabilities are as bad as the officer suggests.
- Perhaps Ukraine's real combat capability lies somewhere between this rather gloomy assessment and the fragmented picture you get from the media when you look at the Ukrainians' somme content," Toveri says.
Toveri points out that Ukraine's armed forces have many levels of troops.
- The Ukrainians themselves have complained that there are quickly created regional defence forces that have poor training levels and take a lot of casualties because they don't know how," says Toveri.
But he adds that on the other hand, NATO has been training Ukrainian soldiers for years, and there are also troops with long combat experience in the country.
- Similarly, the skills of officers vary. Older officers have been taught the old Soviet way, which is not very good. Some of the younger officers have already had NATO training," says Toveri.
K�ihk� points out that Finland certainly has something to offer in terms of training, but so does Ukraine. Both have their own ways, although the officer interviewed by Yle considers Finnish training to be the best.
- I would be a bit more humble in saying that the Ukrainians have something to teach us. After all, they have fresh combat experience against Russia," says K�ihk�.

Finnish military trainers already have their hands full
In Toveri's view, Finland has a lot to offer Ukraine in terms of training, but in practice there are no resources for it. According to Toveri, the strength of the Defence Forces has been squeezed so small.
- All our training resources are tied up in the training of conscripts and reservists, and we can't shed hundreds of trainers there, because otherwise our own defence would suffer," says Toveri.
Mr Toveri praises the training skills of the Finnish reserve, but he says that even there are not many instructors going abroad.
- They too are attached to supporting the Defence Forces in training reservists," says Toveri.
K�ihk�n believes that the talent is there if the political will is there.
- Training is a matter of priority. Where do we want to invest? This is a pretty cheap way of trying to get results in Ukraine," says K�ihk�.

Translated with DeepL

Note: Toveri means Comrade, so if there's a stray comrade in the translation I missed, it's talking about ret. major general Toveri.

He's also the former head of intelligence in Finnish Defence Command, so his perspective is both interesting and (I feel) reflects quite well on what the defence establishment wants to put out in public.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 09:48

fatherboxx: Mar 25, 2013

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

oh hey, someone took that regional death map and added per-capita visualization like i wanted and oof

https://twitter.com/azamatistan/status/1630721273264484352/photo/1

Noted colonial regions Volgograd, Bryansk and Ulyanovsk and imperial center of Ingushetia and Tatarstan :jerkbag:

fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 11:48 on Mar 1, 2023

# ? Mar 1, 2023 11:44

Qtotonibudinibudet: Nov 7, 2011; Omich poluyobok, skazhi ty narkoman? ya prosto tozhe gde to tam zhivu, mogli by vmeste uyobyvat' narkotiki

fatherboxx posted:

Noted colonial regions Volgograd, Bryansk and Ulyanovsk and imperial center of Ingushetia and Tatarstan

Junisbai definitely has an (understandable, as Kazakh diaspora) opinion, but the overall difference between Moscow/SPB and the regions is clear

i am curious what explains the marked difference between, say, Ingushetia or Khanty-Mansi and Buryatia or North Ossetia/Alania, but eh

# ? Mar 1, 2023 12:31

Kikas: Oct 30, 2012

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

oh hey, someone took that regional death map and added per-capita visualization like i wanted and oof

https://twitter.com/azamatistan/status/1630721273264484352/photo/1

That's a fairly high percentage from the Kalinigrad Oblast, I wasn't expecting this...

# ? Mar 1, 2023 12:38

fatherboxx: Mar 25, 2013

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

Junisbai definitely has an (understandable, as Kazakh diaspora) opinion, but the overall difference between Moscow/SPB and the regions is clear

Yes, it is mostly economically depressed regions that are hit hardest because the state pays extremely well for military service compared to average salary there. 200k roubles monthly is still way more than Moscow/SPB average but not enough for significant supply of people marching to their deaths to be formed. For many regions, though, it is absolutely life-changing.
Being in the gutter economically does not always align with being a region with a high minority population (hello, Tatarstan). Tuva and Buryatya are both and thanks to Shoigu military service is the only social elevator there.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 12:42

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Seems that CNN sources yesterday were saying that Bakhmut is in a worse shape than what's being officially let on. https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-02-28-23/h_146347c2b7931af1e6cfd7bf95f8318b

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

Junisbai definitely has an (understandable, as Kazakh diaspora) opinion, but the overall difference between Moscow/SPB and the regions is clear

i am curious what explains the marked difference between, say, Ingushetia or Khanty-Mansi and Buryatia or North Ossetia/Alania, but eh

Kikas posted:

That's a fairly high percentage from the Kalinigrad Oblast, I wasn't expecting this...

You have to overlay income and subordinate factors, like access to education and employment, to describe this more rigorously.

Edit: ^^^ right, social mobility would be the more clearly defined and comprehensive factor here.

cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 12:56 on Mar 1, 2023

# ? Mar 1, 2023 12:43

Comstar: Apr 20, 2007; Are you happy now?

I'm really hoping this turns into a Stalingrad scenario where all the attacks are stuck at the tips trying to take one building or tree square at a time, making their flanks and reserves low and Ukraine goes in around them and cuts them off (or at least, make them retreat like Kharkov/Karkiev did).

Ukraine is going to try and launch an offensive with all their new armour they are getting, the question is where they will do it.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 13:20

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Comstar posted:

I'm really hoping this turns into a Stalingrad scenario where all the attacks are stuck at the tips trying to take one building or tree square at a time, making their flanks and reserves low and Ukraine goes in around them and cuts them off (or at least, make them retreat like Kharkov/Karkiev did).

Ukraine is going to try and launch an offensive with all their new armour they are getting, the question is where they will do it.

Without commenting on how psychotic �I'm really hoping this turns into a Stalingrad scenario� can come off, the offensive is most likely launched in the south, and it's an open question if it should be done with arriving western gear, or with the existing Soviet stocks, backfilling with western stuff afterwards. My money on the latter.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 13:50

jaete: Jun 21, 2009; Nap Ghost

Finland's parliament has done a final vote on NATO membership, which unsurprisingly passed 184 to 7 - almost the same numbers as a year ago when we were deciding whether to apply. Of the no votes, 6 were Left Alliance, which is a party that is half modern city liberals and half insane Stalinists (they have 16 reps, whose votes were 8 for, 6 against, 2 absent); and 1 no vote was an insane right-wing Putinist who was kicked out of the Basic Finns right-wing populist semi-racist party for being too racist. Horseshoe theory, more like horseshoe fact. :v:

Link to article (in Finnish)

Of course Turkey and Hungary still need to ratify. Hungary was supposed to have done it already but they're now saying it will be in end of March. Turkey remains to be seen but personally I suspect they'll ratify shortly after their big election which is in mid-May. Also I suspect Turkey will be fine with both Finland and Sweden in the end... here's hoping.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 14:15

NihilCredo: Jun 6, 2011; iram omni possibili modo preme:
plus una illa te diffamabit, quam multæ virtutes commendabunt

Kikas posted:

That's a fairly high percentage from the Kalinigrad Oblast, I wasn't expecting this...

Kaliningrad had (has) a major military presence for obvious reasons.

Unless I'm misreading Wikipedia, there were 225k contract troops stationed there in 2014; if most of them were registered as Kaliningrad residents, that would certainly inflate the numbers once a lot of them were transferred to the Ukrainian front.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 14:25

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

jaete posted:

Of course Turkey and Hungary still need to ratify. Hungary was supposed to have done it already but they're now saying it will be in end of March. Turkey remains to be seen but personally I suspect they'll ratify shortly after their big election which is in mid-May. Also I suspect Turkey will be fine with both Finland and Sweden in the end... here's hoping.

Some Hungarian diplomats are making noise on Facebook that this will get tied to the EU funds release for Hungary, but I think this is closer to farting than to real life.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 14:31

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

nahuman posted:

https://yle.fi/a/74-20020165

A few comments in Finnish media about the earlier article.

Note: Toveri means Comrade, so if there's a stray comrade in the translation I missed, it's talking about ret. major general Toveri.

He's also the former head of intelligence in Finnish Defence Command, so his perspective is both interesting and (I feel) reflects quite well on what the defence establishment wants to put out in public.

That earlier piece seems to have stirred a bunch of people with more experience into talking.

I'll also note that there's been a number of other people who went to Ukraine to train Ukrainians in an ad hoc way who seem to have left or otherwise found the experience unsatisfying as Ukrainian command just did not have some important role in the greater training system to slot them in to so they mostly ended up teaching TDF basics and hanging out in strip clubs. That was the exact drama shitshow that the Mozart group (group founded by an American to connect people with military skills with Ukrainian units in need of training and they had some people with very impressive resumes involved) imploded in. Particularly as formal training has increasingly been conducted in larger units overseas in actual training grounds, the needs for random high-maintenance western dudes to provide small scale training has by all accounts really fallen off. I probably sound dismissive but I don't want to suggest that it was completely worthless because teaching tdf guys which end of magazine goes in gun level stuff almost certainly saved lives and was in demand at the time.

I'm not in any way saying that Ukraine's armed forces are beyond reproach or flawless or anything like that, but the dismissiveness of their abilities in that first yle piece people were linking seemed decidedly out of proportion to the amount of ability Ukraine has clearly demonstrated at fighting and destroying the Russian military.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 18:52 on Mar 1, 2023

# ? Mar 1, 2023 18:37

Pablo Bluth: Sep 7, 2007; I've made a huge mistake.

A few recent videos on the C2 training. Forces TV is part of the MOD news service and the WSJ are clearly using footage provided from them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6W5eUUqD7N4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cu3N0y7Sf8

There's still saying C2 handover to Ukraine this month. I'm guessing they won't be seen at the frontline until Ukraine are ready for a specific counter-offensive.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 21:37

spankmeister: Jun 15, 2008

Any counter-offensive by Ukraine will likely be after the rainy season ends. Bakhmut will likely be lost long before then. Would be very unwise for Ukraine to throw in the new equipment into the meatgrinder piecemeal. But what do I know I ain't no tactician.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 21:54

Sekenr: Dec 12, 2013

kemikalkadet posted:

Maxar got some imagery of the AWACs in Belarus today. Looks like maybe some damage to the disc but it's probably not going to be out of action for long.
https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630600581176762368

Despite how underwhelming this attack seems to be, Ukraine's most far reaching drone attacks so far coincided with the event. Which could imply that this AWACS was plain supposed to be spotting these drones. So for whatever days this blinds this part of russian operation allows for Ukranian attacks

# ? Mar 1, 2023 22:41

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

# ? Mar 1, 2023 22:47

Popete: Oct 6, 2009; This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs; Grimey Drawer

That sure looks like an airplane with snow on it.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 23:24

Dolash: Oct 23, 2008; aNYWAY,
tHAT'S REALLY ALL THERE IS,
tO REPORT ON THE SUBJECT,
oF ME GETTING HURT,

spankmeister posted:

Any counter-offensive by Ukraine will likely be after the rainy season ends. Bakhmut will likely be lost long before then. Would be very unwise for Ukraine to throw in the new equipment into the meatgrinder piecemeal. But what do I know I ain't no tactician.

Is a push across the south toward Melitopol the most likely site for a new Ukrainian counter-offensive? It's a long stretch, but cutting the overland route to Crimea would be a big deal.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 23:53

Orthanc6: Nov 4, 2009

Dolash posted:

Is a push across the south toward Melitopol the most likely site for a new Ukrainian counter-offensive? It's a long stretch, but cutting the overland route to Crimea would be a big deal.

That's been the theory for that stated reason, in addition to a few attacks cutting off bridges in the area. Though if Bakmut falls, which it seems likely to now, I feel like a counter attack in that area is likely also in the works.

# ? Mar 1, 2023 23:56

Tomn: Aug 23, 2007; And the angel said unto him
"Stop hitting yourself. Stop hitting yourself."
But lo he could not. For the angel was hitting him with his own hands

I have been a little concerned that Bahkmut is getting outsized attention in Ukraine lately - the whole "Bahkmut holds!" slogan that was going around might suggest a certain emotional and political reason to hold there beyond purely strategic reasons which seems dangerous when long-term it was likely going to fall anyways.

Though in that vein Mariupol fell that and that didn't cause an instant collapse of Ukrainian morale so it's probably not the end of the world, but here's hoping Ukraine has a clear-eyed view of what they're planning to get out of Bahkmut anyways.

# ? Mar 2, 2023 00:18

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Tomn posted:

I have been a little concerned that Bahkmut is getting outsized attention in Ukraine lately - the whole "Bahkmut holds!" slogan that was going around might suggest a certain emotional and political reason to hold there beyond purely strategic reasons which seems dangerous when long-term it was likely going to fall anyways.

Though in that vein Mariupol fell that and that didn't cause an instant collapse of Ukrainian morale so it's probably not the end of the world, but here's hoping Ukraine has a clear-eyed view of what they're planning to get out of Bahkmut anyways.

I think they do. I get that their intent is to get Russia to blow themselves out trying to take it, to set them up for a counteroffensive coming soon. The "Bahkmut Holds" stuff I assume is psyops to keep the Russians on the line.

# ? Mar 2, 2023 00:24

moon demon: Sep 11, 2001; of the moon, of the dream

Deteriorata posted:

I think they do. I get that their intent is to get Russia to blow themselves out trying to take it, to set them up for a counteroffensive coming soon. The "Bahkmut Holds" stuff I assume is psyops to keep the Russians on the line.

This is how I am interpreting it as well. By making it a "big deal" it could further focus Russian attention and resources (or, further validate the existing focus, attention, resource dedication) while "other things" happen elsewhere with comparatively less focus, attention and resources. Ukraine has a history of Doing Multiple Things At Once (Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, for example), so this may be Prong 1 of a multi-pronged Something.

edit: it is definitely interesting how up until recently Bakhmut was not a very strategically important place, and now suddenly it is.

# ? Mar 2, 2023 00:48

Burns: May 10, 2008

Keep in mind that Russia's stated strategic goal is the seizure of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk,. There are basically no major towns between those cities and Bahmut. The Russians can bypass Chasiv Yar to the north. Theres a canal running north-south but those atent exactly impenetrable. Theres slso the cluster of towns further south at Pivichne, Toretsk and New York which hadnt seen much movement in some time by the looks of it. So long as the Russians are able to pincer UA positions its going to be a problem. It all depends on when the Russians hit their culmination point.

# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:06

Brave New World: Mar 10, 2010

^^^
I think you may have just answered my question.

chupacabraTERROR posted:

This is how I am interpreting it as well. By making it a "big deal" it could further focus Russian attention and resources (or, further validate the existing focus, attention, resource dedication) while "other things" happen elsewhere with comparatively less focus, attention and resources. Ukraine has a history of Doing Multiple Things At Once (Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, for example), so this may be Prong 1 of a multi-pronged Something.

edit: it is definitely interesting how up until recently Bakhmut was not a very strategically important place, and now suddenly it is.

Can anyone elucidate as to why Bakhmut is suddenly so important? I don't get why Russia is so heavily concentrated on it. Is it a logistical hub?

# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:09

Mederlock: Jun 23, 2012; You won't recognize Canada when I'm through with it; Grimey Drawer

Brave New World posted:

^^^
I think you may have just answered my question.

Can anyone elucidate as to why Bakhmut is suddenly so important? I don't get why Russia is so heavily concentrated on it. Is it a logistical hub?

It's really close to a highway (M03?) that connects to their logistics chain back to the rail lines, so it's relatively easier to keep supplied for offensive operations, And it's a stepping stone to Slovyansk and Kramatorak

# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:22

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Tomn posted:

I have been a little concerned that Bahkmut is getting outsized attention in Ukraine lately - the whole "Bahkmut holds!" slogan that was going around might suggest a certain emotional and political reason to hold there beyond purely strategic reasons which seems dangerous when long-term it was likely going to fall anyways.

Though in that vein Mariupol fell that and that didn't cause an instant collapse of Ukrainian morale so it's probably not the end of the world, but here's hoping Ukraine has a clear-eyed view of what they're planning to get out of Bahkmut anyways.

Their officials, fwiw, are trying to massage the language out now, which I guess is to say where their internal calculus lies on balancing the emotional versus the practical. This is on top of the occasional sanity �statement� through the past weeks, to assuage fears that you express specifically, that it's a political (forever) holding ground. I do personally believe that there was a major political component to hold at least one day past the anniversary, though.

Herstory Begins Now posted:

..

# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:28

mercenarynuker: Sep 10, 2008

I also wouldn't be surprised if "it is strategically important (because we are eliminating/tying down a LOT of invaders there for reasonable investment)"

# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:28

Tuna-Fish: Sep 13, 2017

Dolash posted:

Is a push across the south toward Melitopol the most likely site for a new Ukrainian counter-offensive? It's a long stretch, but cutting the overland route to Crimea would be a big deal.

If you ignore everything else, and look at the map alone, that's clearly the best place for Ukraine to attack. The downside is that the Russians know how to look at maps too. That area is probably the place they have fortified the most.

So it's possible that some place east of it is a preferable location, just because it would be less well defended.

# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:35

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Brave New World posted:

Can anyone elucidate as to why Bakhmut is suddenly so important? I don't get why Russia is so heavily concentrated on it. Is it a logistical hub?

It's really just an epic story mainly, and also the only area on the whole frontline where the grand winter offensive of RuAF is able to advance consistently. With nothing similarly eye-catching going on, all the eyeballs are there. It does sit on some roads and so on, which have their intrinsic utility, but this is not some decapitating strike against Ukrainian transport/logistics infrastructure. They take two roads, but 1 is short and leads (over a blown bridge) to another Bakhmut-sized town, whereas the other is a straight line into what probably is the most fortified urban area in Ukraine.

Stepping back from armchair generalship, there's political value in taking Bakhmut for Russians because they're missing very little of Donetsk oblast's territory to proclaim it as captured (�liberated�).

# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:40

Ynglaur: Oct 9, 2013; The Malta Conference, anyone?

chupacabraTERROR posted:

This is how I am interpreting it as well. By making it a "big deal" it could further focus Russian attention and resources (or, further validate the existing focus, attention, resource dedication) while "other things" happen elsewhere with comparatively less focus, attention and resources. Ukraine has a history of Doing Multiple Things At Once (Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, for example), so this may be Prong 1 of a multi-pronged Something.

edit: it is definitely interesting how up until recently Bakhmut was not a very strategically important place, and now suddenly it is.

The Ukrainian commander for the Donbass was recently relieved, so it's possible those things are related. I am conjecturing, though.

The report of Leopards near Ukraine concerns me because I think it unwise to trickle on new capabilities, but on reflection I suspect it's a ruse. I'll go on the record with a prediction: Ukraine's concept of operations involves fixing Russia's attention--and in particular those two division's they have in reserve near Kreminna--on Bakhmut. Then Ukraine will attempt an operational breakthrough elsewhere.

# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:40

cinci zoo sniper: Mar 15, 2013

Tuna-Fish posted:

If you ignore everything else, and look at the map alone, that's clearly the best place for Ukraine to attack. The downside is that the Russians know how to look at maps too. That area is probably the place they have fortified the most.

Yes.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/10/world/europe/russia-ukraine-offensives-maps.html

# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:42

plogo: Jan 20, 2009

Brave New World posted:

Can anyone elucidate as to why Bakhmut is suddenly so important? I don't get why Russia is so heavily concentrated on it. Is it a logistical hub?

I think part of it is that it is actually coming close to falling now. It has been a topic of more granular war reporting for months. See for example this account that is generally optimistic about Russia's prospects:
https://imgur.com/a/cY1Yhns

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Mar 2, 2023 01:44

saratoga: Mar 5, 2001; This is a Randbrick post. It goes in that D&D megathread on page 294

"i think obama was mediocre in that debate, but hillary was fucking terrible. also russert is filth."

-randbrick, 12/26/08

Brave New World posted:

Can anyone elucidate as to why Bakhmut is suddenly so important?

FWIW the battle for Bakhmut started in early August, and long range fire on the city before then. They've been fighting over it for half of the entire war, so it didn't suddenly become important.

# ? Mar 2, 2023 02:35

HonorableTB: Dec 22, 2006

saratoga posted:

FWIW the battle for Bakhmut started in early August, and long range fire on the city before then. They've been fighting over it for half of the entire war, so it didn't suddenly become important.

Not quite true. The "Battle of Bakhmut" started on August 1 and is defined by the Russian push from Popasna and is a really weird date to mark the start of that conflict. Using August 1 (as found in the wiki) is for some reason ignoring the months of fighting in Bakhmut that had been ongoing since May when Popasna fell and Ukraine retreated to Bakhmut. By the time August 1 came around Bakhmut had long already looked like the Somme

E: not saying this is your doing or anything to be clear, the wiki is just inaccurate in my view

# ? Mar 2, 2023 04:12

fizzy: Dec 2, 2022; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Round-up of news of the day

President of Ukraine

quote:

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/cya-zima-bula-duzhe-skladnoyu-ale-mi-zmogli-zabezpechiti-ukr-81373

This winter was very difficult, but we managed to provide Ukraine with energy and heat - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
1 March 2023 - 21:44

�

Today, I also held a long, detailed conference call with all those who are in charge of various areas of state defense. The military, the Security Service, the Main Intelligence Directorate, foreign intelligence, the MIA, other government officials, the Office.

We keep each frontline direction under control. Khortytsia, Tavria, Odesa, North - there were reports on the situation over the past day.

In addition to the frontline directions, we are also paying attention to the frontline areas. Those cities and districts that are subjected to Russian shelling every day and night. To a deliberate terror. Nikopol and other communities of the Dnipropetrovsk region, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and the region, the frontline part of Donbas, Kharkiv and the region, Sumy and Chernihiv regions.

�

Reuters

quote:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-clings-bakhmut-time-may-be-running-out-russians-advance-2023-03-02/

Ukraine clings to Bakhmut but time may be running out as Russians advance
March 2, 2023

March 2 (Reuters) - Ukrainian forces hung onto their positions in the ruined eastern city of Bakhmut early on Thursday under constant attack from Russian troops seeking to claim their first major victory for more than half a year.

Russia says seizing Bakhmut would open the way to fully controlling the rest of the strategic Donbas industrial region bordering Russia, one of the main objectives of its invasion a year ago on Feb. 24.

Ukraine says Bakhmut has limited strategic value but has nevertheless put up fierce resistance. Not everyone in Ukraine is convinced that defending Bakhmut can go on indefinitely.

"I believe that sooner or later, we will probably have to leave Bakhmut. There is no sense in holding it at any cost...," Ukranian member of parliament Serhiy Rakhmanin said on Ukrainian NV radio on Wednesday night.

"But for the moment, Bakhmut will be defended with several aims - firstly, to inflict as many Russian losses as possible and make Russia use its ammunition and resources."

No lines of defence should be allowed to collapse, Rakhmanin said, and "there are two ways to approach this - an organised retreat or simple flight. And we cannot allow flight to take place under any circumstances."

The battle for Bakhmut began about seven months ago, but in recent weeks Russian advances have left defenders fighting on three sides, with their only way out to the west.

Thousands of civilians remain inside the ruined city, which had a pre-war population of around 70,000.

'UNDER CONTROL'

A statement on Wednesday night by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said the Russians were attempting to advance on Bakhmut "without interruption" and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his forces "are keeping each sector of the front under control."

Russian forces were making preparations for new attacks in central Zaporizhzhia region and on the southern front in the Kherson region, the military statement said. More than 40 towns and villages were shelled, it said, including the regional centre of Kherson and other towns on the west bank of the Dnipro River, abandoned by Russian forces in November.

Reuters was unable to immediately verify the latest battlefield accounts.

New York Times

quote:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-bakhmut-reinforcements.html

Ukraine Reinforces Embattled Bakhmut, but Mission Is Unclear
By Matthew Mpoke Bigg and Edward Wong
March 1, 2023
Updated 7:57 p.m. ET

Ukraine is sending reinforcements to the devastated eastern city of Bakhmut, leading more troops into a bloody crucible that has already cost both sides staggering losses, where Russian forces have gradually tightened their grip.

A Ukrainian deputy defense minister, Hanna Maliar, said Wednesday that her government had begun deploying new fighters to Bakhmut, site of the most protracted battle of the war, but she did not say how many were being sent. More critically, Ms. Maliar, speaking on Ukrainian television, did not say what their role would be, in a battle that has left the ravaged Bakhmut a city in name only.

The new forces could be used to dig in and try to hold onto the territory, exacting the maximum casualties on the Russians, who have lost thousands of troops in repeated, futile assaults on Ukrainian positions. They might be used to tie down Russian forces so they cannot redeploy to other battles. Or they might be there to offer logistical support for Ukraine�s long-rumored withdrawal from Bakhmut.

That last explanation seemed to gain some ground this week when another Ukrainian official, the economic adviser Alexander Rodnyansky, laid out the challenges in an interview with CNN.

�Our military is obviously going to weigh all of the options,� he said. �So far, they have held the city but, if need be, they will strategically pull back. Because we are not going to sacrifice all of our people just for nothing.�

Moscow turned its attention to Bakhmut last summer, but Ukrainian soldiers have held out there for months, even as Russian forces have gradually captured surrounding territory, nearly cutting off the city. Russia has rushed large numbers of troops to the front lines, including many newly mobilized, ill-trained recruits, giving Ukraine opportunity to inflict thousands of casualties � though at a high cost to its own fighters.

�The most difficult situation is still Bakhmut,� Ukraine�s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said in his nightly address on Tuesday. A day earlier, he said Ukrainian forces were dangerously exposed.

�The enemy is constantly destroying everything that can be used to protect our positions, to gain a foothold and ensure defense,� Mr. Zelensky said.

Video recorded in the city shows apocalyptic scenes of buildings reduced to rubble or charred, hollowed-out shells, with streets marked by the burned-out remains of vehicles but few signs of human life.

In an audio message released on social media on Wednesday, the head of the Wagner mercenary force that has spearheaded the Russian offensive in Bakhmut said there was no sign that Ukrainian forces were withdrawing from the city.

The skirmishing was not just on the battlefield.

Guardian

quote:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f08112894f385f6

Germany to increase ammunition production to support Ukraine, says Scholz
11h ago, 16.38 GMT

Germany will ramp up ammunition production as well as ensure it has enough replacement parts and repairs capacity in its defence industry to better support Ukraine, the chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has said.

Scholz, after a meeting with Latvian prime minister, Kri�jānis Kariņ�, said:

"The now one-year lasting support of Ukraine has also brought us the knowledge that enables us to ensure that there is also a sufficient supply, with spare parts, that we have created repair capacities for the weapons used in the war, at locations outside of Ukraine."

He added:

"We will ensure that the production of ammunition is advanced, both for the weapons that we have supplied ourselves and those that come from classic stocks that are available in eastern Europe.

The German leader vowed on Friday to support Ukraine �as strongly and as long as necessary�, adding that German aid to Ukraine, for financial and humanitarian support as well as weapons, had totalled more than �14bn (�12.4bn) so far."

CNN

quote:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/01/business/russia-oil-shadow-fleet/index.html

A mysterious fleet is helping Russia ship oil around the world. And it�s growing
By Julia Horowitz, CNN
Published 5:28 AM EST, Wed March 1, 2023

Russian oil is still finding its way to buyers around the world. But even those who spend their days tracking its movement across oceans struggle to work out exactly who is ferrying it.

As Western sanctions against Russia have escalated over its invasion of Ukraine, more ships have joined an existing fleet of mysterious tankers, ready to facilitate Russia�s oil exports.

Industry insiders estimate the size of that �shadow� fleet at roughly 600 vessels, or about 10% of the global number of large tankers. And numbers continue to climb.

Who owns and operates many of these ships remains a puzzle. As trading Russian oil became more complex over the past year, many Western shippers withdrew their services. New, obscure players swooped in, with shell companies in Dubai or Hong Kong involved in some cases. Some bought boats from Europeans, while others tapped old, creaking ships that might have otherwise ended up in the scrapyard.

�You�ve gone deeper into the dark arts,� a senior executive at an oil trading firm told CNN, referring to this opaque network.

The under-the-radar fleet has increased in importance as Moscow tries to avoid working with Western shippers, and as customers in China and India supplant those in Europe, now banned from purchasing seaborne Russian oil and refined products such as diesel. Delivery to more distant buyers requires additional boats � and ship owners willing to deal with added complexity and legal risk, especially after Group of Seven countries imposed price caps on Russian oil.

The expansion of the shadow fleet highlights the dramatic changes Russia�s war has brought to the global oil market. In its bid to keep operating, the world�s second-largest crude exporter has reshaped decades-old trading patterns and split the world�s energy system in two.

�There�s the fleet that is not doing any Russian business, and then there�s the fleet that�s almost exclusively doing Russian business,� said Richard Matthews, head of research at EA Gibson, an international shipbroker. Only a few ships, he added, are doing a �bit of both.�

�Gray ships� and �dark ships�

As Europe has weaned itself off Russian energy, buyers in Asia have cut deals. China boosted imports of Russian oil to 1.9 million barrels per day on average in 2022, up 19% from 2021, according to the International Energy Agency. India ramped up purchases even more sharply, logging an 800% increase to an average of 900,000 barrels per day.

Russia�s oil exports to China and India both hit record highs in January after Europe�s ban on seaborne Russian oil took effect, according to Kpler, a data and analytics company. Exports to Turkey, another top customer, also continued apace. (The ban on refined oil products did not kick in until February.)

...

# ? Mar 2, 2023 04:59

Comstar: Apr 20, 2007; Are you happy now?

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Without commenting on how psychotic �I'm really hoping this turns into a Stalingrad scenario� can come off,

Seems like a pretty big comment there chief. Moving on, the one place they will NOT attack with heavy armored forces is at the site of a battle that is on the level of a WW1 battlefield. But if they want to kick the Russians out, Ukraine has to go around the moonscape and mined area (and not just a thin defence line, but many kilometers of bad roads and mines laying about), and without having a handy edge of the map to move along, that means they must go around. And if they go around on both flanks, they will entrap the attackers stuck in the horror of that city.

And I am pretty sure there aren't many Russian reserve formations behind the front line, because it will all be at the front.

And if they did do it, and entrap large enemy formations...it could mean the end of the war at one stroke. It's going to make some interesting war games to play in a decade or so.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Mar 2, 2023 07:10

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# ? May 27, 2024 02:42

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Comstar posted:

Seems like a pretty big comment there chief. Moving on, the one place they will NOT attack with heavy armored forces is at the site of a battle that is on the level of a WW1 battlefield. But if they want to kick the Russians out, Ukraine has to go around the moonscape and mined area (and not just a thin defence line, but many kilometers of bad roads and mines laying about), and without having a handy edge of the map to move along, that means they must go around. And if they go around on both flanks, they will entrap the attackers stuck in the horror of that city.

And I am pretty sure there aren't many Russian reserve formations behind the front line, because it will all be at the front.

And if they did do it, and entrap large enemy formations...it could mean the end of the war at one stroke. It's going to make some interesting war games to play in a decade or so.

This is not the Harry Potter fanfiction thread.

# ? Mar 2, 2023 08:10

The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > War in Ukraine: thread feedback session open unttil Saturday (i'll regret this)

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