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Libluini posted:This is factually wrong. Well, just sending a tiny troop over for propaganda purposes, that's just silly if it's not at the same time recon in preparation for a larger operation, I agree with you there. I'm just disagreeing with your more general assumption that all border incursions from Ukrainian forces are useless. It's a good move. Either Russia is forced to do something about it (diverting soldiers, assets, or both), or the incursions can continue until a GPS-guided JDAM lands in a depot and then the russians finally do something about it.
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Mar 2, 2023 16:56
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Nenonen posted:NOW the gloves are off!!! Yeah, I doubt there will be any meaningful escalation. By the looks of it, Russia is simply not capable of sending more missiles and drones to Ukraine, which originally was their revenge for the Kerch bridge attack. But if propagandists don't push the narrative that this time it changes everything, and Russia is super ready to finally start winning the war by any means necessary FOR REAL now, it's not going to play well with their audience.
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Mar 2, 2023 16:58
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Kofman has a funny way of saying "On one hand, on the other" https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1631270936807714816?s=20
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Mar 2, 2023 17:04
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Paladinus posted:Yeah, I doubt there will be any meaningful escalation. By the looks of it, Russia is simply not capable of sending more missiles and drones to Ukraine, which originally was their revenge for the Kerch bridge attack. But if propagandists don't push the narrative that this time it changes everything, and Russia is super ready to finally start winning the war by any means necessary FOR REAL now, it's not going to play well with their audience. Agreed, I feel that the individual politicians are mostly seeking to appease individual stakeholders on taking this seriously etcetera. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 17:27 on Mar 2, 2023 |
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Mar 2, 2023 17:05
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Libluini posted:This is factually wrong. Well, just sending a tiny troop over for propaganda purposes, that's just silly if it's not at the same time recon in preparation for a larger operation, I agree with you there. I'm just disagreeing with your more general assumption that all border incursions from Ukrainian forces are useless. Just to be clear I was talking about that specific incursion. If it is indeed simply 50 right wing extremist going in for the lolz, taking pictures and posting them and then going back to Ukraine it seems like there's no positive impact and that it helps Russia's storyline. Probing the border to get Russia to spend more of it's ressource there might or might not be a good idea. I can see arguments on both side and I don't think I have sufficient knowledge to have much of an opinion at the moment.
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Mar 2, 2023 17:17
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KingColliwog posted:Just to be clear I was talking about that specific incursion. If it is indeed simply 50 right wing extremist going in for the lolz, taking pictures and posting them and then going back to Ukraine it seems like there's no positive impact and that it helps Russia's storyline. Russian's storyline has been irrelevant since 24 Feb 2022.
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Mar 2, 2023 17:29
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OddObserver posted:Or, you know, we can stop treating things with double-standards: the moment Russian troops invaded, Ukrainian troops got the right to operate in Russian territory. It's one thing to strike at military targets and militarily relevant infrastructure, like the 31st km railway bridge in Belgorod and another to saunter over the border to harass civilians. Enjoy posted:Alternatively, Russian people might recognise that this was a stunt by a small group, and instead focus on Putin's inability to exercise control over Russian territory That just plays into the hand of hardliners, whom we don't want running Russia. The Russian firehose of falsehoods-method of disinformation also works so much better if there's a smidgen of truth in it. "It's only fair, the Russians are doing it" is an incredibly counterproductive point to make, because the whole rationale the Kremlin has given amounts to "It's only fair we get to do an imperialism, if America is allowed to!" We absolutely don't want to encourage that kind of thinking.
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Mar 2, 2023 17:38
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Russian's storyline has been irrelevant since 24 Feb 2022. For you and me sure. For people inside of Russia and their allies I think it's extremely relevant.
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Mar 2, 2023 17:50
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Shes Not Impressed posted:Russian's storyline has been irrelevant since 24 Feb 2022. It bears reminding that over a third of the world's population sits in the diplomatic camp "undecided" per the United Nations General Assembly Resolution ES‑11/2  Edit: Revised for clarity. Jasper Tin Neck fucked around with this message at 18:46 on Mar 2, 2023 |
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Mar 2, 2023 18:08
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:It bears reminding that over a third of the world's population sits in the diplomatic camp "undecided." I would prefer a more clearly sourced map here. To help out with this, there may be a relevant recent UN vote.
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Mar 2, 2023 18:11
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Russia's storyline isn't so relevant as much as their information apparatus, which is being boosted by China, and its reach outside the West. The West is absolutely the most relevant group here because they're able to supply and keep supplying arms and financial support to Ukraine until the Earth is swallowed up by the sun. But, Russian propaganda can do a lot of damage if it is ignored: Russian PMCs gradually displacing the French across West Africa is a strange side story going on right now.
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Mar 2, 2023 18:12
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Probing attacks across the border may have some value. I question whether there is any point or value whatsoever in getting Russian neo-nazi dissidents involved in doing so, or anything else whatsoever. It's not a good look for anyone and I don't see how they're in any way better than Ukrainian regulars doing it. What the gently caress is an anti-Putinist Russian neo-nazi anyways, someone who doesn't think Putin is hard enough on non-whites?
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Mar 2, 2023 18:16
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:It's one thing to strike at military targets and militarily relevant infrastructure, like the 31st km railway bridge in Belgorod and another to saunter over the border to harass civilians. This line of reasoning sounds incomprehensible to me. What imperialism is Ukraine "allowed to do" here? They don't give a crap about Russian cities, any occupation of legitimate military targets would cease immediately after the war ends and Russia leaves, there's no endgoal of annexing Russian territory, which makes talk about Ukrainian cross border attacks being somehow imperialism total nonsense. And while it would be certainly nice if there aren't any hardliners replacing Putin, that's more on the level of wishful thinking. In my account, Putin has made sure that it is very unlikely his replacement will be any better. The best way to end the war is for Ukraine to push as hard and fast as they can, and simply topple the entire thing until Russian armed forces aren't able to operate in Ukrainian territory anymore.
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Mar 2, 2023 18:17
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I would prefer a more clearly sourced map here. To help out with this, there may be a relevant recent UN vote. I think that's directly sourced from one of the UN votes, it appears here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_ES-11/4
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Mar 2, 2023 18:20
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:It bears reminding that over a third of the world's population sits in the diplomatic camp "undecided." I'm missing the point here because I don't don't think of world politics as reductive as a Twilight Struggle board. This incursion will have no impact on foreign policy or military aid because those conversations are being done outside of this thread.
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Mar 2, 2023 18:30
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Tomn posted:What the gently caress is an anti-Putinist Russian neo-nazi anyways, someone who doesn't think Putin is hard enough on non-whites?
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Mar 2, 2023 18:30
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Its sounds like some kind of borderline publicity stunt. Now had they shot up an OMON building that would be a different story.
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Mar 2, 2023 18:37
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Libluini posted:This line of reasoning sounds incomprehensible to me. What imperialism is Ukraine "allowed to do" here? Read closer. What I'm saying is, "it okay if we do it, 'cause they're doing it" is a terrible model for international relations. It's not okay for Ukrainian units to go "liberate" Russian towns because the Russians did it. Much like past American foreign adventures don't make it acceptable for Russia to invade other countries.
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Mar 2, 2023 18:38
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evilweasel posted:I think that's directly sourced from one of the UN votes, it appears here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_ES-11/4 The impetus for making that post was that unlabelled, legend-less graph with no reference constitutes a bad posting form for D&D first and foremost. That said, if the intent was to refer to the resolution you've linked, then I would also tacitly suggest to use more recent reference material, even if that doesn't meaningfully change the point they'd like to make. https://twitter.com/UN_News_Centre/status/1628858093072224256
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Mar 2, 2023 18:41
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It's getting easier to count what's not destroyed https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1631266373514002433?s=20
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Mar 2, 2023 18:42
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Tomn posted:Probing attacks across the border may have some value. I question whether there is any point or value whatsoever in getting Russian neo-nazi dissidents involved in doing so, or anything else whatsoever. It's not a good look for anyone and I don't see how they're in any way better than Ukrainian regulars doing it. There's some turbonationalists in Russia who think Putin is turning their white Russia into some multinational hellhole where the Tajiks, Chechens and Kazakhs take our jobs, grope our women and molest our children. Add in the same common trope how ethnics outbreed the whites and Russia will become a caliphate in year 2050.
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Mar 2, 2023 18:42
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This appears to be video of the drone seeking out that Russian AWACS aircraft and possibly depositing munitions on it. https://twitter.com/DemeryUK/status/1631331345216438273?s=20
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Mar 2, 2023 18:49
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SixFigureSandwich posted:I am strongly reminded of the Russian Liberation Army but even shittier. Not an inaccurate description. The flag they showed off was designed by a ROA officer/fascist ideologue and other ROA paraphenalia can be seen on them. They're also associated with the Russian Imperial Movement (who have people fighting on the Russian side of the war). Basically a bunch of Nazi yahoos who somehow managed to cause an incident during a major war!
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Mar 2, 2023 18:53
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I think the doctrine that Party A should not do a thing because Party B might use it as propaganda is wise only until Party B demonstrates a consistent willingness to make things up out of thin air. Whether US Republican MAGAs or Russia's Putin regime, when one party is a fundamental bad actor and will simply make up poo poo to suit their needs, their opponents need no longer worry about doing things which might "look bad." The opponents of such counter-factual organizations could be the literal saints and it wouldn't matter. It's just bad strategy to worry about appearances when your opponent doesn't actually care what things look like.
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Mar 2, 2023 19:14
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:Read closer. What I'm saying is, "it okay if we do it, 'cause they're doing it" is a terrible model for international relations. It was in fact OK for the allies to occupy Germany in WWII, while it wasn't OK for Germany to occupy Poland. (Crimes against civilians, of course, are a completely different matter).
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Mar 2, 2023 19:17
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Dick Trauma posted:This appears to be video of the drone seeking out that Russian AWACS aircraft and possibly depositing munitions on it. My understanding they had to fly a different drone with explosives later.
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Mar 2, 2023 19:17
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https://twitter.com/krus_chiki/status/1631110259686219776 Shouldn't be a surprise to anyone reading about post-WW2 conflicts or listening to Lions Led By Donkeys and the like but war tourists - not the brightest bunch
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Mar 2, 2023 19:20
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hehe https://twitter.com/krus_chiki/status/1631306710894690306?t=gq5pJn2_g2aA9c7H2GzQVQ&s=19 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 2, 2023 19:34
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fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/krus_chiki/status/1631110259686219776 I guess Caro wasnt the only literally crazy war tourist.
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Mar 2, 2023 19:44
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Paladinus posted:It was an unprecedented terroristic act according to Putin, and that sentiment is echoed by all main propagandists. Some questions are raised about how it could happen, but mostly they talk about retaliation. Kadyrov's already called for detaining families of everyone involved and also for more missile strikes, and I quote, 'on all objects directly or indirectly tied to the attack. And we shouldn't even worry about civilian objects nearby. If the enemy treats defenceless people like this, we shouldn't be polite either. From now on, it's a war without rules that the satanic Ukrainian regime started'. cinci zoo sniper posted:News agencies are covering it, but their written messaging is not particularly remarkable. Not remarkable in that it's quite reminiscent of post-Chechen war “counterterrorism operation” pressers, which every Russian adult has seen hundreds of times. Thanks. My tea leaf reading exercise is that if this were truly a Russian "false flag" thing, we'd expect a much larger push or framing of it (including messaging specifically aimed at the "West", with some lead time prep); it's not clear that that's happened.
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Mar 2, 2023 19:44
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Discendo Vox posted:Thanks. My tea leaf reading exercise is that if this were truly a Russian "false flag" thing, we'd expect a much larger push or framing of it (including messaging specifically aimed at the "West", with some lead time prep); it's not clear that that's happened. Yep, this isn't there. Yet anyway – maybe they'll boot up some screamers for the evening, but the reaction so far seems to be entirely proportional to what amounts to an armed stag party equivalent for a bunch of Russian extremists. On a second thought, them being Russian may be an uncomfortable wrinkle in all of this, as the written reporting that I've seen all consistently reports them as “Ukrainian nationalists” (standard lingo for their current newspeak).
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Mar 2, 2023 19:51
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https://mobile.twitter.com/faineg/status/1631319179931578368 It looks like Chinese drone companies blocked sales to Russia (and Ukraine).
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Mar 2, 2023 20:19
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James Garfield posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/faineg/status/1631319179931578368 This won’t happen, but in my mind there is gonna be a wiki article on the liberation of Melitopol and part of the background is gonna be how Russians couldn’t purchase consumer drones for a short period thus leaving their recon units compromised. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 2, 2023 20:24
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That story of Jihad Johnny is so insane that it has to be true because nobody could make up such a crazy sequence of events. Personally I found it absurd that they didn't kick him out after the ISIS thing but hey. There was a raid on Bryansk by volunteers that were apparently Russian neo-nazis or something. They crossed the border and took selfies in Bryansk and it made Girkin begrudgingly admit that was pretty good and start talking about how he's afraid of consequences for his words. It's a weird post even by Girkin standards. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1631388469351030785?s=20 "Alternative success in Vuhledar" got a good chuckle out of me
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Mar 2, 2023 21:34
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HonorableTB posted:That story of Jihad Johnny is so insane that it has to be true because nobody could make up such a crazy sequence of events. Personally I found it absurd that they didn't kick him out after the ISIS thing but hey. Girkin's post is a joke about a newly passed law that outlaws criticizing ("discrediting") every person participating in the "special military operation", including high command (a favorite target of turbopatriots).
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Mar 2, 2023 21:37
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fatherboxx posted:Girkin's post is a joke about a newly passed law that outlaws criticizing ("discrediting") every person participating in the "special military operation", including high command (a favorite target of turbopatriots). Not only that, but most likely you can no longer publish what crimes Wagner mercenaries were in prison for. The law also covers 'volunteers', and that's what Wagner soldiers were called by Putin and other officials. Not to mention that Prigozhin is extremely litigious when it comes to his business interest.
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Mar 2, 2023 22:18
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/02/russia-run-out-of-money-oleg-deripaska I wonder what's this about, publicly complaining about being shaken down by the Russian government while still in Russia.
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Mar 2, 2023 23:11
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Also, here's the full BYPOL's account of their attack on A-50. https://t.me/bypol/621 Short summary: - 2 commercial DJI drones - DYI kamikadze kits of 200 g TNT equivalent of explosives and 200 ball bearings - They don't have visual confirmation that they have inflicted damage on the plane cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 23:40 on Mar 2, 2023 |
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Mar 2, 2023 23:18
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/02/russia-run-out-of-money-oleg-deripaska He's rich and influential enough to hope someone will hear his desperate plea. He can't do anything with sanctions abroad, but he can at least bargain with tax collectors at home. cinci zoo sniper posted:Also, here's the full BYPOL's account of their attack on A-50. https://t.me/bypol/621 If Girkin to be believed, the plane was actualy flown back to Russia for extensive repairs. Whatever damage was done, it didn't impact its flying capability, but probably did a number on the radar if it couldn't be repaired in Belarus. So that lines up with what BYPOL are claiming.
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Mar 2, 2023 23:39
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https://www.ft.com/content/19341a0a-56a2-4e57-a807-a57c365f1eb1 As per FT, U.S. government is moving forward with some sort of campaign against sanctions busting, with the target countries being UAE, Turkey, Armenia, Uzbekistan, possibly more countries in the Caucasus or Central Asia. China is brought up, but in a secondary role (and some of the export poo poo now overlaps between China and Russia bans anyway).Paladinus posted:If Girkin to be believed, the plane was actualy flown back to Russia for extensive repairs. Whatever damage was done, it didn't impact its flying capability, but probably did a number on the radar if it couldn't be repaired in Belarus. So that lines up with what BYPOL are claiming. Hm, that would be a very solid hit indeed, if it's as they speculate that they've managed to hit the radar pedestal with a shrapnel blast.
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