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Fabulous Knight posted:I guess I'm in the absolute minority in thinking that Putin is just genuinely a nationalist and revanchist, and those ideals are the driving force here. Putin grew up in a large Soviet homeland, saw it fall apart and has dedicated the rest of his career and life to restoring as much of that state's core as possible. He wants to see Russia expand on a map, to territories he considers to be Russia's ancestral lands. He spent the Covid years more isolated than ever and came to believe in his own myths and fantasies more than ever. I know this approach seems nuts from a western perspective and there has to be an economical or some other reason, but I think those are secondary at least. I don't think you are. We are broadly in agreement that attempts to explain Russia via Rational Self-Interest are bunk (and why so many analysts thought the war was not going to happen, because it was so obviously stupid). I just don't think that Putin is merely a failed HoI4 Map Painter, but that his "reasoning" is similarly deluded as that of another famous failed artist. (  not sorry)
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Mar 19, 2023 14:38
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Gift ideas for sickos that have everything https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1637411973372452865 https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1637412786660691969
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Mar 19, 2023 14:41
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Nenonen posted:Gift ideas for sickos that have everything Russia, please. There's only so many iterations of "Are we the baddies?" that can be posted when you do poo poo like this.
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Mar 19, 2023 15:35
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Nenonen posted:I don't think we really know the full extent of Russia's fossil energy reserves, for that matter. We can extrapolate from historical numbers just fine and see that their fossil fuel reserves paint a rosy picture. The Western Siberian Basin, where most oil comes from, consists of some of the largest sag basins in the world. In layman's terms, this means their oil lies in large, easier to map, predictable regions of rock. I'd have to dig up a book and find the reference, but the largest of the producing arch formations served most the Soviet's needs for 10+ years. Stupidly big conventional reserves still exist along the Yamal peninsula and Kara sea that will keep their industry running for decades. Even largely expended oil fields carry potential because of Russia's comparatively weak unconventional exploration work (better than ME players though). Good sources: 2003 USGS Report 2022 AAPG Literature Review
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Mar 19, 2023 15:42
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Antigravitas posted:This discussion about the reasons for Russia's aggression seems to ignore the elephant in the room. We were discussing a specific junk theory, as to why it's junk, to be fair.
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Mar 19, 2023 16:19
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Icon Of Sin posted:Minefields are a military obstacle. Generally, obstacles are anything that slows down incoming troops and they may or may not inflict casualties. Minefields and concertina wire are obstacles, but so are rivers and cliffs. Gotcha, cheers. English hard. Fabulous Knight posted:I guess I'm in the absolute minority in thinking that Putin is just genuinely a nationalist and revanchist, and those ideals are the driving force here. Putin grew up in a large Soviet homeland, saw it fall apart and has dedicated the rest of his career and life to restoring as much of that state's core as possible. He wants to see Russia expand on a map, to territories he considers to be Russia's ancestral lands. He spent the Covid years more isolated than ever and came to believe in his own myths and fantasies more than ever. I know this approach seems nuts from a western perspective and there has to be an economical or some other reason, but I think those are secondary at least. Don't think this is that crazy. I'm more of a school that ascribes to the view that he sees Ukraine to be “like Russia”, in that if “Europe” becomes feasible there, then the basis for his reign, as the only possible guarantor of the stability and prosperity for the people of Russia, is null and void, but no analysis of this war can happen without analysis of Putin's militant historical romanticism.
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Mar 19, 2023 18:01
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Don't think this is that crazy. I'm more of a school that ascribes to the view that he sees Ukraine to be “like Russia”, in that if “Europe” becomes feasible there, then the basis for his reign, as the only possible guarantor of the stability and prosperity for the people of Russia, is null and void, but no analysis of this war can happen without analysis of Putin's militant historical romanticism. This is what I think. Ukraine joining the EU and prospering would signal to Russians that something better than what they have is possible. This is something that can’t be tolerated by the established powers in Russia. It’s the same reason places like Taiwan threaten the Chinese communist party. It’s an alternative system where people thrive without some politburo pulling all the strings. It undermines their legitimacy. Modern day post maidan Ukraine could have become a model for how the rest of Russia could evolve if not for all the reactionary elements and appeals to tradition holding it all back.
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Mar 19, 2023 20:43
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Speaking of Mr. P, he's been to Mariupol'. https://www.ft.com/content/77bb83a2-910f-444d-95cc-0f1f7131a2eb Including relatively weird press footage of him… just driving a car. https://twitter.com/censor_net/status/1637349499726069763 https://twitter.com/censor_net/status/1637366603133140992
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Mar 19, 2023 20:48
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That newly built site with four or six buildings is sure getting a whole lot of propaganda mileage. Too bad nobody ever zooms out.
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Mar 19, 2023 20:55
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Nitrox posted:That newly built site with four or six buildings is sure getting a whole lot of propaganda mileage. Too bad nobody ever zooms out. For context, when he travels around Russia, at peace time, officials will sometimes be preparing for months and putting up these giant holsters with pictures of pretty buildings along the road he's expected to take.
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Mar 19, 2023 20:57
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Speaking of Mr. P, he's been to Mariupol'. https://www.ft.com/content/77bb83a2-910f-444d-95cc-0f1f7131a2eb He's also visited the philharmonic hall. It was built in 2018 because the one the region had before 2014 is now on the territory controlled by DNR, in Donetsk. It remained in a relatively good condition and barely required reconstruction, but maybe because it's easy to confuse it with the now destroyed theatre nearby (the one that had KIDS written right next to it when it was bombed), and Russia promised to rebuild the theatre specifically, they decided to invite Putin in for a quick tour. E: Russia is trying to make an example out of Mariupol plus there's a lot of money for construction companies in it, so it's not just the 5 blocks of flats, there's a lot of work being done, or at least a lot of something that looks like work. Paladinus fucked around with this message at 21:06 on Mar 19, 2023 |
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Mar 19, 2023 20:58
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Including relatively weird press footage of him… just driving a car. I can only assume that’s a rare inter-dimensional leak from a universe where Putin moved to Frankfurt after the collapse of the USSR and became a black cab taxi driver. But more seriously, interesting that he’s travelling incognito given how notoriously security conscious he is. Or maybe he is just a hypochondriac re: COVID and not so worried about other risks. In any case I am sure he has a security detail in a car behind him but it must be pretty discrete without a convoy as there are no sirens and he appears to be the lead car in a mid range Toyota (or whatever is the badge on the wheel, can’t make it out), and he’s slowly driving by other traffic and with other non-secured cars next to him.
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Mar 19, 2023 21:02
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It is at night under curfew so was probably easy for security to organize.
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Mar 19, 2023 21:09
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FT has a new piece about supply chain problems with artillery stuff. Scaling this might be a problem for now, since the problem is in raw materials – gunpowder, TNT, and nitrocellulose. One of their sources says that it may take up to 3 years to scalle this domestically. https://www.ft.com/content/aee0e1a1-c464-4af9-a1c8-73fcbc46ed17Saladman posted:I can only assume that’s a rare inter-dimensional leak from a universe where Putin moved to Frankfurt after the collapse of the USSR and became a black cab taxi driver. He took a helicopter there, and then drove around town for a bit. And yes, that's a Toyota, BBC has a higher-res video for the car interior detectives.
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Mar 19, 2023 21:13
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Saladman posted:I can only assume that’s a rare inter-dimensional leak from a universe where Putin moved to Frankfurt after the collapse of the USSR and became a black cab taxi driver. i loled at the one journo take on it https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1637374440211185664 if you've seen Mansky's Putin's People docu about Putin's first presidential campaign, it has strong "childhood schoolteacher visit where the camera crews were ready and waiting, and there were 3 'rehearsal' visits before where some FSO mook shows up instead and delivers the news that actually Vova is running late and will need to reschedule" vibes. the pandemic's finally over enough and the need for a charm offensive is dire enough that Putin's willing to go back into "actually i AM friendly charismatic politician" mode him driving himself in that beater (after arriving in a goddamn military helo) is really wonderful cherry atop the whole fake everyman image
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Mar 19, 2023 21:32
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The whole trip is to put something else in the news to drown out the whole Hague war crimes thing. I'm surprised he cares about international image but apparently it bites enough for some PR damage control
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Mar 19, 2023 22:33
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:i loled at the one journo take on it I mean there are also all of those videos of Russian soldiers "fighting house to house" where they are shown storming buildings... by a cameraman set up inside that building.
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Mar 19, 2023 22:33
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cinci zoo sniper posted:FT has a new piece about supply chain problems with artillery stuff. Scaling this might be a problem for now, since the problem is in raw materials – gunpowder, TNT, and nitrocellulose. One of their sources says that it may take up to 3 years to scalle this domestically. https://www.ft.com/content/aee0e1a1-c464-4af9-a1c8-73fcbc46ed17 Found the article, thanks. quote:Explosia, a Czech state-owned manufacturer that is one of Europe’s largest suppliers of explosives to ammunition factories, told the FT that its production of propellants used in 155mm artillery is “running at full capacity” and would not be increased until 2026.  I get it takes time but I hope the efforts to liberate the country aren't crippled because we couldn't be bothered to start the process as soon as it was clear it would be necessary.
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Mar 19, 2023 22:41
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Coquito Ergo Sum posted:I mean there are also all of those videos of Russian soldiers "fighting house to house" where they are shown storming buildings... by a cameraman set up inside that building. My favourite, undisputedly, version of this is the spring-summer mine clearing videos where the camera is walking backwards into an alleged minefield.  mobby_6kl posted:Found the article, thanks. I hope end up seeing a more proper discourse on this in Europe. It is frustrating to literally see some parties wake up just now.
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Mar 19, 2023 22:52
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Speaking of Mr. P, he's been to Mariupol'. https://www.ft.com/content/77bb83a2-910f-444d-95cc-0f1f7131a2eb I'm guessing Putin's presence indicates the highest levels of confidence in a place's safety, right? Has Putin made an appearance near the frontline like Zelenski in Bakhmut?
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Mar 19, 2023 22:58
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RockWhisperer posted:I'm guessing Putin's presence indicates the highest levels of confidence in a place's safety, right? Has Putin made an appearance near the frontline like Zelenski in Bakhmut? Probably yes, and this is the first time that he's been further into Ukraine than Crimea, since 2014.
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Mar 19, 2023 23:00
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mobby_6kl posted:
To make artillery shells you need primers and Nammo did start construction of a new primer factory last year. It scheduled for completion in ... 2025 Sigh. I really hope Ukraine can kick the Russians out before that becomes operational.
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Mar 19, 2023 23:06
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:i loled at the one journo take on it Driving himself to the charity hovel to hear the praises of the peasantry seems very much from the traditional monarch handbook. Not exactly the sort of masculine struttery he's leaned on in the past, but I imagine he ripped off his shirt and rode a bear home in a snowstorm afterwards. (just off camera) Ah well. He's out there touching grass, anyway. Good for him. As many of us are aware, there's always the chance that reality could come flooding back when you re-engage with the outside world.
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Mar 20, 2023 01:53
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Svaha posted:
But it's all staged, though. And this all is coming from the current leader of the area that gave us the first Potemkin village . . . somewhat near where the first one was done in the first place.
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Mar 20, 2023 02:27
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Hmm. https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/3907602-mcmaster-were-going-to-see-more-evidence-of-china-supporting-russia-in-ukraine-war/ article posted:Former national security adviser H.R. McMaster predicted in an interview on Sunday that more evidence of China assisting Russia in its invasion in Ukraine will be revealed in the coming days and weeks. How reliable is a quote from McMaster on all of this? Seems to highlight a lot of risk, a lot of things people have additionally warned about for a significant amount of time.
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Mar 20, 2023 03:06
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notwithoutmyanus posted:Hmm. Statements like this seem to be mainly clickbait to me. Who cares what McMaster is predicting? Either the evidence comes out and we can evaluate it, or it doesn't.
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Mar 20, 2023 03:09
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Svaha posted:Driving himself to the charity hovel to hear the praises of the peasantry seems very much from the traditional monarch handbook. Not exactly the sort of masculine struttery he's leaned on in the past, but I imagine he ripped off his shirt and rode a bear home in a snowstorm afterwards. (just off camera) He is probably surrounded by quite the security detail, but the optics of putin driving himself (instead of using a chauffeur or something) in what he insists is russian territory seems like it would play incredibly well over in russia.
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Mar 20, 2023 03:19
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Rocko Bonaparte posted:But it's all staged, though. And this all is coming from the current leader of the area that gave us the first Potemkin village . . . somewhat near where the first one was done in the first place. the rat fandom posted:He is probably surrounded by quite the security detail, but the optics of putin driving himself (instead of using a chauffeur or something) in what he insists is russian territory seems like it would play incredibly well over in russia. Never forget: Assassination of Luis Carrero Blanco
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Mar 20, 2023 04:09
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Svaha posted:He's absolutely passing through one bubble membrane into another one. Just noting that for a Palace Hikkimori like Putin, it may be perceived differently through his subjective reality. Siddhartha was a palace jerk before he saw some suffering and dead people from his palanquin. Hope springs eternal that Putin will go starve himself under a tree for a while. it likely is neither. the point i was trying to make previously is that putin makes carefully-orchestrated show trips to try and demonstrate that he really is a man of the people, a leader who is there on the ground and can interact with the average person. those average people are, conveniently, very happy to see him arrive! all very spontaneous! the documentary i mentioned is readily available and worth a watch if you want to understand what's going on: https://www.amazon.com/Putins-Witnesses-Vladimir-Putin/dp/B09Y27YLZW putin is keenly aware that he can have image problems. he hasn't forgotten being seen as some weird shy person who had a sheltered academic education and a boring career doing grunt work in some backwater KGB field office before inexplicably being catapulted into power for reasons entirely unrelated to his political charisma. yeltsin and zhirinovsky were actual effective populist politicians in their own right--they got political power by being good (enough) politicians. putin was entirely not that--he was effective working backroom connections and cleaning up messes in the saint petersburg government, and got kinda called in to do that again for yeltsin and the 90s oligarchs. politicking is something he recognized as important and picked up after, but he never really got good at it because he didn't have to: by the time he needed to build a public image, there were plenty of people willing to help him do so. his public tours are something he views (not entirely incorrectly) as a kayfabe necessity for internal audiences, and to a lesser degree easily-duped external ones (i can't be arsed to dig up whatever polling there is among central asian and indian hoi polloi atm, so have some dated tajik migrant pop meme poo poo instead) he is in no way doing this try and see that maybe he's wrong and has somehow been deceived into doing a war crimes by his underlings (not saying that he hasn't been yes-manned into oblivion, but he isn't doing this to try and see past their bullshit) or to avoid getting assassinated (that is probably a concern, but driving a lovely toyota himself isn't the way he's addressing it). he has recognized a need to not be seen as some nicky II cloistered in a palace and paying attention to nothing but his own personal concerns, and in service of that he's trying to put on a show that demonstrates he's still the big guy in charge to whomever needs to hear that message
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Mar 20, 2023 05:23
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Svaha posted:Either that, or he's a paranoid control freak who doesn't want to ride in the presidential vehicle because it has a big fat target on it. He's been especially paranoid and control obsessed since the first month or so of the war. I get the feeling he's starting to figure out that a lot of people are lying to him but he hasn't figured out the part where it's because they don't want to say "No" to him instead of secretly plotting to coup him out
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Mar 20, 2023 05:25
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lol someone managed to videobomb it apparently https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1637676493768732672 https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1637679152097533953
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Mar 20, 2023 06:20
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Crossposting my own post from the GBS thread because I am interested to see what D&D makes of this:HonorableTB posted:Interestingly, Prigozhin seems to have been hacked. He seems to be conducting tax evasion and LOL, ordering Wagner candidates to undergo polygraphs to ascertain war enthusiasm and whether or not recruits have ties to the FSB. The last bit is especially interesting to me. And I have provided translatons too: Dossier-Central posted:In early autumn 2022, unknown hackers gained access to more than 1 million documents of Yevgeny Prigozhin's structures . For several months, the group maintained access to the network, pumping out all the fun from there. Some of the files from the #Wagnerleaks archives were at the disposal of journalists from Die Welt, the Dossier Center, Insider, Paris Match and Arte. Some other bits that I found relevant (a lot of the article was supporting technical information that didn't need to be posted here): quote:Many employees of the Troll Factory come to St. Petersburg from other cities or countries. This is due to the long-term negative image of Prigozhin in the urban labor market. quote:After the start of the war, another question was added to the standard set - about the attitude towards the "military operation". quote:What does the Troll Factory do?  RYBAR IS FUNDED BY PRIGOZHIN quote:Another well-known military observer - Rybar, aka Mikhail Zvinchuk , - a couple of years ago, he came to work in the office of the Troll Factory and actively promoted his channel at her expense. In one of the documents of that time, Zvinchuk was listed as the head of the “international direction”, where, in addition to him, 49 other people were involved and received payments, including journalist Abbas Juma and military observer Boris Rozhin (Colonel Cassad) . Prigozhin also worked closely with Dugina, Alexander Dugin's daughter quote:Of the famous people in the archive, you can find the deceased Daria Dugin. She joined the Patriot media group in 2018 or 2019 and worked there until the murder. Dugina was responsible for the foreign direction, including organizing Prigozhin's publications and comments in the Turkish media. In particular, according to the source, she organized a big interview with the Aydınlık newspaper and a photo of Prigozhin on the front page.
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Mar 20, 2023 06:29
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:zhirinovsky Somebody said Zhirinovsky ! I get to post this, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_tqWRRQYw0
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Mar 20, 2023 06:52
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Thread moderation update. I've updated the thread rules on making  /  posts with the following addition, to better track admins' evolving preferences on the matter.quote:For the avoidance of doubt, violent imagery is tolerated here only inasmuch as it offers clear newsworthiness, novelty, or educational value for a would-be conversation. Exceptionally graphic content, as well sharing any violent imagery in a bloodthirsty connotation, in mods' and admins' subjective view, will be punished with a ban and a 30-day probation on the first offence.
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Mar 20, 2023 07:19
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HonorableTB posted:Crossposting my own post from the GBS thread because I am interested to see what D&D makes of this: Nothing of this is of any surprise to Russian audience - it has been extremely easy to see who of popular news/satirical/blogger accounts sells out to whom by their style and subject. Still good to see direct receipts.
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Mar 20, 2023 07:49
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:he is in no way doing this try and see that maybe he's wrong and has somehow been deceived into doing a war crimes by his underlings (not saying that he hasn't been yes-manned into oblivion, but he isn't doing this to try and see past their bullshit) or to avoid getting assassinated (that is probably a concern, but driving a lovely toyota himself isn't the way he's addressing it). he has recognized a need to not be seen as some nicky II cloistered in a palace and paying attention to nothing but his own personal concerns, and in service of that he's trying to put on a show that demonstrates he's still the big guy in charge to whomever needs to hear that message The rest of your post was really good and informative. I'll check out that documentary.
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Mar 20, 2023 07:56
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Svaha posted:I hope you realize that I was being very sarcastic. A little too much, if I'm being honest. no harm! such happens in text in tangentially related thoughts, i really wanna go rewatch agoniya
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Mar 20, 2023 08:26
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fatherboxx posted:Nothing of this is of any surprise to Russian audience - it has been extremely easy to see who of popular news/satirical/blogger accounts sells out to whom by their style and subject. Still good to see direct receipts. Absolutely- I wish we could get similar records for some of the apparatchiks funding US-facing media.
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Mar 20, 2023 09:49
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:lol someone managed to videobomb it apparently https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1637676493768732672 I wonder what happened to her.
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Mar 20, 2023 11:06
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That was the bit they accidentally left in the footage, I wonder how much they edited out.
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