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The Xi/Putin meeting looks like an irl "the chad Xi and the virgin Putin" meme (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Mar 20, 2023 16:17
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Edgar Allen Ho posted:The Xi/Putin meeting looks like an irl "the chad Xi and the virgin Putin" meme As the west grows tired of the war. I wonder how much momentum "why won't Zelensky accept a ceasefire?" will get. Republicans will probably pivot to that eventually. Currently, support for Ukraine is very popular in Europe, so many political entities that would normally be in Putin's pocket and peace-at-all cost types are struggling (but I repeat myself).
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Mar 20, 2023 16:30
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Feliday Melody posted:As the west grows tired of the war. I wonder how much momentum "why won't Zelensky accept a ceasefire?" will get. I think a lot will depend on this next offensive from Ukraine. If they succeed in taking back some significant territory Western support will be fine imo. If they are repulsed, the calls for a ceasefire will become very loud very fast.
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Mar 20, 2023 16:42
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https://twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1637805333509820416 Not seeing a lot of details yet on the implementation, but this is now a thing formally. HonorableTB posted:Crossposting my own post from the GBS thread because I am interested to see what D&D makes Very good post, Thank you for sharing. fatherboxx posted:Nothing of this is of any surprise to Russian audience - it has been extremely easy to see who of popular news/satirical/blogger accounts sells out to whom by their style and subject. Still good to see direct receipts. I'm a bit surprised about Dugina being named, but given Dugin's propensity for bloviating in the requisite circles, it's not illogical either. I wouldn't also be surprised to see some people try to retcon her death onto this, like all those 00s Russian crime TV/film plots, even if that obviously remains rather unsubstantiated. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 17:05 on Mar 20, 2023 |
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Mar 20, 2023 17:00
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Chalks posted:I think a lot will depend on this next offensive from Ukraine. If they succeed in taking back some significant territory Western support will be fine imo. If they are repulsed, the calls for a ceasefire will become very loud very fast. I get that nobody really cares about Ukraine but how weak is it to do the photo-ops, proclaim to support full territorial integrity, and then fold immediately? This makes the West look incredibly weak and an unreliable partner and ally.
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Mar 20, 2023 17:02
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Looks like Russia is building a defensive line in Crimea; a series of concrete fortifications (think of the Gothic Line) and has put up ads of the Russian version of eBay looking for labourers. cinci edit:  video further in the thread shows an attack on a digging crewhttps://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1637805016009396224 (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Somebody fucked around with this message at 17:18 on Mar 20, 2023 |
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Mar 20, 2023 17:06
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*with a very Pugacheva voice* 🎶 Million, million, million arty shells... 🎶 I hope there's willingness to provide munitions ahead of time. European stocks can be refilled once the production gets to full gear, and Russia has no ability to threaten NATO with expansion of hostilities so there's minimal risk in doing so. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST) Nenonen fucked around with this message at 17:13 on Mar 20, 2023 |
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Mar 20, 2023 17:09
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They've been doing patchwork work on that for some time now, since like October or so.
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Mar 20, 2023 17:12
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Chalks posted:I think a lot will depend on this next offensive from Ukraine. If they succeed in taking back some significant territory Western support will be fine imo. If they are repulsed, the calls for a ceasefire will become very loud very fast. For what it's worth, Finland is having a parliamentary election right about now, and the public conversation has been mostly on domestic issues. Of course this includes things like spending, but Finland is, for geographical reasons if nothing else, fairly committed to seeing Russia fail in their attempt to wage a war of conquest. In the broader European view, of course, things aren't this straightforward, but within the EU there's member states other than Finland who also have similar motivations to keep the organization in general favourable to the Ukrainian war effort.
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Mar 20, 2023 17:29
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FT has further details on the artillery deal. My notes: - EUR 2bn price tag, via EPF, split in half for reimbursements and fresh ammo for Ukraine - 18 countries participating, notably France through a demand that this cash goes only to EU suppliers - Rheinmetall says more money is needed separately, to build factories lifting the explosives shortage, and ministers say that more money is need too, with 1.5bn infusion on the table (to 3.5bn vs 4bn original Estonian proposal) - The German industry thing mentioned earlier by Scholz, that I posted, was that Germany will allow other countries to legally kramer into their standing contracts, so that this doesn't wait
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Mar 20, 2023 18:48
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Thanks, Norway. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1637879336651857935?t=AucZ5mUH1fx74WhsxywLmA&s=19 Thorway.
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Mar 20, 2023 19:15
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A Ukrainian drone strike at an airbase in Crimea this evening, seems like Ukraine have developed something similar to the Iranian drones https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1637907814604591104 https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1637910297997373443
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Mar 20, 2023 21:26
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The audio for first sounds like the person commenting thinks it hit railroad? (aside from the usual profanity, he said "iron", which I am guessing he is using for that, unless there is something local nicknamed like that) Edit: longer version of that video has an engine sound that will probably invite the Iranian drone/"moped" comparisons. OddObserver fucked around with this message at 22:07 on Mar 20, 2023 |
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Mar 20, 2023 22:03
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This is very interesting, as Dzhankoi is supposed to be a fairly pampered military installation. And since it's at least 160 km away from the frontline, so yeah, it's got to be something new falling. OddObserver posted:The audio for first sounds like the person commenting thinks it hit railroad? (aside from the usual profanity, he said "iron", which I am guessing he is using for that, unless there is something local nicknamed like that) I would be extremely surprised if that's not railroad meant there.
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Mar 20, 2023 22:05
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The strike on Dzhankoi took out a trainload of Kalibr-NK missiles in transit. Kalibr NKs are the variant meant for anti-surface ships, so it seems likely that Russia is now repurposing anti-shipping missiles for land strikes in the same way that they've repurposed S-300 and S-400 SAMs for ground-to-ground strikes. That has dire implications for the state of Russia's cruise missile stocks.
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Mar 20, 2023 22:11
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Way too early to confirm what was destroyed imo.
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Mar 20, 2023 22:12
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HonorableTB posted:The strike on Dzhankoi took out a trainload of Kalibr-NK missiles in transit. Kalibr NKs are the variant meant for anti-surface ships, so it seems likely that Russia is now repurposing anti-shipping missiles for land strikes in the same way that they've repurposed S-300 and S-400 SAMs for ground-to-ground strikes. That has dire implications for the state of Russia's cruise missile stocks. Source?
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Mar 20, 2023 22:12
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zone posted:https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1637922488175796227 Russia will never confirm it and we'll probably not get any photographic evidence so 
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Mar 20, 2023 22:14
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That doesn't look like a train load of missiles exploding, it seems too small. We'll probably never know exactly what they hit or how much was destroyed.
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Mar 20, 2023 22:16
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So far, this looks like a cool story reported by yet another random spam account like @EuromaidanPR, @TpyxaNews, @nexta_tv, and so on. I'm not having luck finding even a geolocation for the video (though it may be literally impossible based on that clip alone).
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Mar 20, 2023 22:17
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Source? zone posted:https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1637922488175796227 cinci zoo sniper posted:So far, this looks like a cool story reported by yet another random spam account like @EuromaidanPR, @TpyxaNews, @nexta_tv, and so on. The original source is the Ukrainian GUR: https://t.me/DIUkraine/2108
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Mar 20, 2023 22:17
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HonorableTB posted:The original source is the Ukrainian GUR: Yeah, and I'm calling GUR statement a cool story, until there's at least some evidence.
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Mar 20, 2023 22:19
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cinci zoo sniper posted:Yeah, and I'm calling GUR statement a cool story, until there's at least some evidence. Fair enough, was just trying to answer your source request 
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Mar 20, 2023 22:20
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cinci zoo sniper posted:I would be extremely surprised if that's not railroad meant there. It's a fair guess, there is a substantial railyard there and anything going north by rail has to pass through it, so it's probably full of targets.  
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Mar 20, 2023 22:22
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HonorableTB posted:Fair enough, was just trying to answer your source request That is noted and appreciated. I had just assumed that you had seen that my post was replying to mobby_6kl's quote with the source.
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Mar 20, 2023 22:23
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mobby_6kl posted:We've tried almost nothing and we're out of ideas! Bolding mine. I don't know where you're from, but this is absolutely not true. In fact, I think the strong response to Putin's invasion all over Europe and not just Eastern Europe took even local politicians by surprise (and Putin himself, obviously). While it's true European politicians could have, should have done and should be doing more, the war is in its second year now and popular support for supporting Ukraine militarily doesn't seem to be flagging. I was also surprised, to be honest. But many Western Europeans psycho-geographically now view Ukraine as Europe, not as some questionable border area that may or may not be Europe. That would not have been true 20 years ago. khwarezm posted:Like the very prospect of any country invading the most heavily armed nuclear power on earth is completely nuts, its one of the reasons I really hate people trying to appeal to some sort of atavistic Russian fear of attacks from the west to come up with an excuse for all of this, its not 1941, Russia has probably the most effective defensive deterrent in human history. Not just that. If you take a step back and consider history, how many times has Russia been attacked from the west since the time of Peter the Great, and how many wars waged against it from the west were successful? From the top of my mind, I can count three attacks (that weren't counter-attacks): the Great Northern War, Napoleon and Hitler. All three ultimately failed.
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Mar 20, 2023 22:34
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cinci zoo sniper posted:This is very interesting, as Dzhankoi is supposed to be a fairly pampered military installation. And since it's at least 160 km away from the frontline, so yeah, it's got to be something new falling. A few weeks ago there was news of Ukraine doing strikes deep into Russian territory with, probably, some kind of Shahed-like drone system. Old tweets re same (maybe posted already back then): https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1631380205863313428 https://twitter.com/igornovikov/status/1631392124074590209 https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1630545767604670467 Definitely a notable thing if Ukraine now has reliable capability for deeper strikes like this. Even "only" 160 km could be a game changer
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Mar 20, 2023 22:40
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Pope Hilarius II posted:Bolding mine. I don't know where you're from, but this is absolutely not true. In fact, I think the strong response to Putin's invasion all over Europe and not just Eastern Europe took even local politicians by surprise (and Putin himself, obviously). While it's true European politicians could have, should have done and should be doing more, the war is in its second year now and popular support for supporting Ukraine militarily doesn't seem to be flagging. I was also surprised, to be honest. But many Western Europeans psycho-geographically now view Ukraine as Europe, not as some questionable border area that may or may not be Europe. That would not have been true 20 years ago.  There's been of course overwhelming shows of support with flags everywhere, volunteers helping refugees and so on. But on political level, I don't think fundamentally anyone cares much if Ukraine has to cede 40% of its land and agree to be Putin's colony, for all the photo-ops and talk about territorial integrity. The actions just aren't consistent with that. It can't possibly take a year to start talking about producing more shells or to agree to deliver some tanks, or planes from Poland (none of this actually happened yet). Not when wars can be won or lost in a matter of days or weeks, as was predicted, and you care about the outcome. The decision with Soviet gear was pretty quick, but then it seems that everyone was like "yep that's good enough". It's not that things like procurement or production take time, but the decision making. You can't say at the same time that "we're committed to ensuring Ukraine restores its recognized territory" and "absolutely no Western tanks or aircraft" (not direct quotes), like the situation was until a month ago. These positions aren't compatible, because once the tanks donated in Kharkiv are gone, how is that goal supposed to be achieved? Rusty Zaporozhets technicals won't cut it. For contrast, I found some data on the Soviet aid for Vietnam:   The actual units are from 74 but you can kind of extrapolate the 5-8 times higher aid during the peaks in late 60s. This is aid in millions USD:  https://documents2.theblackvault.com/documents/cia/vietnam/NIE/IIM_75-002.pdf
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Mar 20, 2023 23:48
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Pope Hilarius II posted:Not just that. If you take a step back and consider history, how many times has Russia been attacked from the west since the time of Peter the Great, and how many wars waged against it from the west were successful? Polish-Soviet war from 1918-21?
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Mar 21, 2023 00:08
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To a surprise of surely at least dozens of people out there, Hungary has blocked the EU's joint statement supporting the ICC warrant for Putin. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-20/hungary-blocked-joint-eu-statement-on-putin-s-icc-arrest-warrant
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Mar 21, 2023 00:08
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mobby_6kl posted:
It isn't urgent in the same way for anyone who isn't living in Ukraine, or even immediately eastern europe. Europe wants Putin stopped because they recognize that if he isn't stopped in Ukraine he will have to be stopped in Poland or Finland or wherever and that means he might have to be stopped with nuclear weapons which means we might all die. But it's a theoretical want. They want it the way kids want toys for Christmas, not the way parents want to buy their kids toys for christmas; a desire they have but not one they are thinking about as an immediate practical problem to be solved.
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Mar 21, 2023 00:11
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mobby_6kl posted:For contrast, I found some data on the Soviet aid for Vietnam: Just to be clear you are comparing roughly say the peak of 830MM in aid in 1967 dollars (so, roughly ~8Bn in 2023 dollars based on CPI) to the ~$46Bn in direct military aid contributed by the US alone, in the first year of the war, and you're finding the second number to be lacking compared to the first. https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts edit: the table of contributions over the years would also seem to indicate that wars are not in fact lost in weeks or months. (also, the arc of this war would seemingly disprove that idea too!) KYOON GRIFFEY JR fucked around with this message at 00:37 on Mar 21, 2023 |
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Mar 21, 2023 00:21
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cinci zoo sniper posted:So far, this looks like a cool story reported by yet another random spam account like @EuromaidanPR, @TpyxaNews, @nexta_tv, and so on. I'm not having luck finding even a geolocation for the video (though it may be literally impossible based on that clip alone). Some pro-Russian tg channels report that it's real (quoting BBC Russia here, haven't seen actual posts myself). Allegedly two out of about ten drones managed to hit the target. Local Russian officials confirmed that the attack has taken place, but obviously don't mention any missiles being lost.
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Mar 21, 2023 00:21
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https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1637993575353929729 Saw an analysis that guessed these movements at Avdiivka was to create a second near-encirclement in the hopes that local Ukrainian reserves would have to choose to relieve either that or Bakhmut but not both, and that the "tactical pause" around Bakhmut was deliberate in order to redirect forces to creating that second push. It's a channel that's either pessimistic or just pro-Russian and so presents this as a clever plan, but there's kind of a tacit admission that they also don't have the forces to be attacking everywhere just presently (otherwise why would a second strike entail pausing the first one?) as well as that they're worried about the Ukrainian ability to reverse their year's gains on Bakhmut as soon as the weather clears.
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Mar 21, 2023 07:46
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:Just to be clear you are comparing roughly say the peak of 830MM in aid in 1967 dollars (so, roughly ~8Bn in 2023 dollars based on CPI) to the ~$46Bn in direct military aid contributed by the US alone, in the first year of the war, and you're finding the second number to be lacking compared to the first. Of course there are many examples of wars taking years or decades. But also ones that are lost and win in days to months. I don't know if I really need to cite examples but, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Nagorno-Karabakh_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War So far it's a horrible meatgrinder but the russians could have a breakthrough at any point too that would gently caress everything up. So I don't think you can really automatically assume you have a decade to make decisions while people are fighting and dying. Hieronymous Alloy posted:It isn't urgent in the same way for anyone who isn't living in Ukraine, or even immediately eastern europe. 
mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 11:31 on Mar 21, 2023 |
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Mar 21, 2023 11:29
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Moon Slayer posted:Thanks, Norway. Yeah well, the only reason we have any tanks in the first place is to protect against a possible Russian invasion, and
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Mar 21, 2023 11:29
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Pope Hilarius II posted:Bolding mine. I don't know where you're from, but this is absolutely not true. I think what mobby is referring to is the painful awareness eastern Europeans have that after their public "grave concerns" and "strong condemnations" a lot of people in central/western Europe, particularly those of the upper/upper-middle class go home to their family/friends and discuss how little they give a poo poo about what's happening "over there" to "those people" especially when it impacts their own comforts. I've had people in the UK literally say that to my face (I am half British and it emboldens people to say disgusting racist poo poo to me). There's very significant concern that if Russia can rearm and reorganise and in 20 years makes a successful 3-day play for, say, the Baltics or Eastern Poland there will be a strong apathy about doing poo poo about it. "Oh it's already happened, IN THE INTERESTS OF PEACE/MINIMISING BLOODSHED we shouldn't go to war over it" etc etc.
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Mar 21, 2023 11:53
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Pope Hilarius II posted:Not just that. If you take a step back and consider history, how many times has Russia been attacked from the west since the time of Peter the Great, and how many wars waged against it from the west were successful? From the top of my mind, I can count three attacks (that weren't counter-attacks): the Great Northern War, Napoleon and Hitler. All three ultimately failed. Given the location The Crimean War is a notable one you've missed.
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Mar 21, 2023 12:42
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Grakkus posted:I think what mobby is referring to is the painful awareness eastern Europeans have that after their public "grave concerns" and "strong condemnations" a lot of people in central/western Europe, particularly those of the upper/upper-middle class go home to their family/friends and discuss how little they give a poo poo about what's happening "over there" to "those people" especially when it impacts their own comforts. I've had people in the UK literally say that to my face (I am half British and it emboldens people to say disgusting racist poo poo to me). There's talk about Ukraine having just one chance to turn this around. Would Brezhnev be concerned about "war fatigue" a year into sending some hardware to Vietnam? I'm concerned our liberal governments are pretty vulnerable here. Not to mention the real possibilities of some chuds getting into power and derailing everything.
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Mar 21, 2023 13:08
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Unless Ukraine claims credit for hitting it, explosions at a factory outside Moscow are probably just Russian industrial safety having a normal one.
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