[Doomsday Economics] Home of Kirbeh's $18 half-slice (now with 50% fewer calories!)

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Doomsday Economics] Home of Kirbeh's $18 half-slice (now with 50% fewer calories!)

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(Thread IKs: skooma512)

FlapYoJacks: Feb 12, 2009

lol the feds are going to raise rates and the market will crash. ATH

# ? Mar 21, 2023 17:25

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# ? May 23, 2024 09:19

captainbananas: Sep 11, 2002; Ahoy, Captain!

fanfic insert posted:

Someone should collapse it

tryin to haha

# ? Mar 21, 2023 17:28

Don Pigeon: Oct 29, 2005; Great pigeons are not born great. They grow great by eating lots of bread crumbs.

How can the market crash if money is infinite??

# ? Mar 21, 2023 17:28

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

there is also nowhere for the money to go

# ? Mar 21, 2023 17:29

The Saucer Hovers: May 16, 2005

euphronius posted:

there is also nowhere for the money to go

ive got space available who should i let know

# ? Mar 21, 2023 17:30

Yudo: May 15, 2003

FlapYoJacks posted:

lol the feds are going to raise rates and the market will crash. ATH

They have to raise rates lest they admit failure or, worse still, fear. The market has priced that poo poo in and (correctly) expects the resumption of free money later this year.

# ? Mar 21, 2023 17:30

Louisgod: Sep 25, 2003; Always Watching; Bread Liar

euphronius posted:

there is also nowhere for the money to go

oh so money is real now?? loving liberals..

# ? Mar 21, 2023 17:31

Fat-Lip-Sum-41.mp3: Nov 15, 2003

FlapYoJacks posted:

lol the feds are going to raise rates and the market will crash. ATH

going to? they've done it. the rate increases they've done so far are what tipped SVB over. more to come, of course

Michael Hudson posted:

So the problem then under the Obama administration � he made an about-face and reversed everything that he had promised his voters.

He had promised to write down the loans, to keep the subprime mortgage people in their houses, but to write down the loans to the fair value and undo the fraud.

What happened instead was, as soon as he took office, he invited the bankers to the White House and said, �I�m the only guy standing between you and the mob with the pitchforks.�

By �the mob with the pitchforks,� he meant mainly Black and Hispanic buyers, mortgagees, who were the main victims of the subprime fraud.
He bailed out the banks and directed the Fed to undertake fifteen years of quantitative easing (QE). And what that was, was the Fed said, �Well the mortgages are worth less than �the value of the property doesn�t suffice to cover all of the bank deposits, because the banks have made bad mortgages.�

�How do we save the banks that have misrepresented the value of what they have?�

�We�re going to slash interest rates to zero. We�re going to spur the largest asset-price inflation in history.�

�We�re going to put nine trillion dollars supporting bank credit � flooding the market with credit � so that instead of real estate prices going back to an affordable level, we can make them even more unaffordable.�

�And that will make the banks much richer. It�ll make the 1% in the financial sector much richer. It�ll make the landlords much richer. We�re going to do that.�

So they spurred � by lowering the interest rates, they created the biggest bond-market boom in American history. From high interest rates in 2008 all the way down to almost zero.

So the result of course was an inflation in stock prices, an inflation of bond prices.

And the result was widening inequality for Americans, because most stocks and bonds are owned by the wealthiest 10%, not by the bottom 90%.

So if you were one of the 10% of the population that owned stocks and bonds, your wealth is going way up.

If you were a part of the 90%, your wages were not going up, and in fact your living standards were being squeezed � not only by the inflation, but by the fact that more and more of your income had to go to paying rent and interest to the FIRE sector � [Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate].

Well finally, a year ago, the Federal Reserve said, �Well there is a problem. Now that COVID is over, wages are beginning to rise.�

�We�ve got to have two million Americans thrown out of work in order to lower wages so that the companies can make larger profits, to pay higher stock prices.�

�Because if we don�t cause unemployment, if we don�t lower the wage levels for America, then profit levels will go down and stock prices will go back down, and our job at the Fed is to increase stock prices, increase bond prices, and increase real estate prices.�

So finally they began to raise [interest] rates to � as they put it � �curb inflation.�

When they say �inflation,� what they mean is �rising wages.�

And even though wages have gone up, they have not gone up as much as consumer prices have gone up.

And the consumer prices have gone up, not because of wage pressures, but for two reasons.

One � the sanctions against Russia have sharply increased the price of energy, because Russian oil can�t be sold to the West anymore, and Russian agriculture can�t be sold to the West anymore.

[Two] � the Democratic party has followed the Republican party in deregulating monopolies. Every monopolized sector of the economy has been raising its prices without its costs going up at all.
And they raise the prices because, they say, �Well, we�re raising them because we expect inflation to go up.�

Well that�s a euphemism for saying, �We�re raising them because we can, and we can make more money by raising them.�

So the prices have gone up, but the Fed is using this as an excuse to try to create unemployment.

Well, what has happened is that, by solving the problem of wages rising, they�ve also created a problem that spilled over into the financial sector. Because what they�ve done is reverse the whole asset-price inflation from 2009 to just last year, 2022.

That�s almost a thirteen year steady asset-price inflation.

By raising the interest rates, all of a sudden they�ve put downward pressure on the bonds. So the bonds that went way up in price when interest rates were falling, now go down in price, because if you have a higher-yielding bond available, the price of your low-yielding bond falls, so that it works out to yield exactly the same.

Also there�s been a withdrawal of money from the banks in the last year, for obvious reasons.

The banks are the most monopolized sector of the American economy. Despite the fact that interest rates were going up, despite the fact that banks were making much more money on their loans, they were paying depositors only 0.2 percent.

And, imagine � if you are a fairly well-to-do person, and you have a retirement income, or a pension plan, or if you�ve just saved a few hundred thousand dollars, you can take your money out of the bank, where you�re getting almost no interest at 0.2 percent, and you can buy a two-year treasury note that yields 4 percent or 4.5 percent.

So bank deposits were being drained by people saying, �I�m going to put my money in safe government securities.�

Many people also were selling stocks because they thought the stock market was as high as it could go, and they bought government bonds.

Well what happened then is that all of a sudden, the banks � especially Silicon Valley Bank � found themselves in a squeeze.

And here�s what happened.

Silicon Valley Bank and banks throughout the country were flooded by deposits ever since the 2020 COVID crisis.

And that�s because people were not borrowing to invest very much. Corporations were not borrowing.

What they were doing was building up their cash.

SVB�s deposits were growing very very rapidly, and it was only paying 0.2 percent on the deposits � how is it going to make a profit?
Well it tried to squeeze out every little bit of profit that it could by buying long-term government bonds.

The longer term the bond is, the higher the interest rate is.

And even the long-term government bonds were only yielding let�s say 1.5 percent, maybe 1.75 percent.

They took the deposits that they were paying 0.2 percent on and lent them out at 1.5, 1.75 percent.

And they were getting � it�s called arbitrage � the difference between what they had to pay for their deposits and what they were able to make by investing them.

Well here�s the problem. As the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, that meant the value of these long-term bonds � the market price � steadily fell.

Well most people who saw this coming � every CEO that I know sold out of stocks, sold out of long-term government bonds.

When the Federal Reserve head said that he was going to raise interest rates, that means you don�t want to hold a long-term bond.

You want to keep your money as close to cash as possible. You want to keep it in three-month Treasury bills. That�s very liquid. Because short term treasury bills, money market funds � you don�t lose any capital value in that at all.

But the Silicon Valley Bank thought � well they were still after every little bit of extra they can get, and they held onto their long-term bonds that were plunging in price.

Well, what you had was a miniature of what was happening for the entire American banking system.

https://michael-hudson.com/2023/03/bond-market-play-reveals-systemic-crisis/

Fat-Lip-Sum-41.mp3 has issued a correction as of 17:45 on Mar 21, 2023

# ? Mar 21, 2023 17:32

Father Wendigo: Sep 28, 2005; This is, sadly, more important to me than bettering myself.

When's the next J. Pow pow wow?

# ? Mar 21, 2023 17:58

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Father Wendigo posted:

When's the next J. Pow pow wow?

25 hours from now

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:02

coelomate: Oct 21, 2020

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1638198920936390658

banking crisis over everyone get back in the pool!

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:06

Thorn Wishes Talon: Oct 18, 2014; by Fluffdaddy

Paradoxish posted:

Every single time they double down on the "all deposits insured forever" line I start to think that maybe things are really bad this time.

you always think that, though

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:19

the bitcoin of weed: Nov 1, 2014

euphronius posted:

there is also nowhere for the money to go

nonsense, it can always get pumped into making real estate more expensive

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:20

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Me 🤝 Tucker Carlson
Technology is destroying jobs and the economy.
https://twitter.com/_anna_joy_/status/1637480026190004224?t=F3-Y9OowIwiUSUqDVrmamg&s=19

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:24

is pepsi ok: Oct 23, 2002

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

you always think that, though

yeah things definitely aren't really bad and haven't been since 2008, great point

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:25

mastershakeman: Oct 28, 2008; by vyelkin

PawParole posted:

https://mobile.twitter.com/villi/status/1638047162440507395

how do you raise 50 million dollars ( and raise money three times before that) without having an idea of what you are even selling? Silicon Valley is full of idiots.

what the hell is 'pmf.' 'product market fit' does that just mean expected customers? so they're raising 30-50million without ever saying who the product is supposed to be sold to?

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:26

Centrist Committee: Aug 6, 2019

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

you always think that, though

here is the negative attention you crave

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:30

Centrist Committee: Aug 6, 2019

Mr Hootington posted:

Me 🤝 Tucker Carlson
Technology is destroying jobs and the economy.
https://twitter.com/_anna_joy_/status/1637480026190004224?t=F3-Y9OowIwiUSUqDVrmamg&s=19

#nofilter

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:30

Mr SuperAwesome: Apr 6, 2011; im from the bad post police, and i'm afraid i have bad news

mastershakeman posted:

what the hell is 'pmf.' 'product market fit' does that just mean expected customers? so they're raising 30-50million without ever saying who the product is supposed to be sold to?

PMF is people wanting and actually buying/paying for your poo poo

yes to raising 30-50m without knowing who will buy it, or probably even any real customers, and also raising money multiple times before that

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:33

skooma512: Feb 8, 2012; You couldn't grok my race car, but you dug the roadside blur.

The Oldest Man posted:

Probably going back to normal but with like 50% more systemic increased risk taking now that everyone knows "too big to fail" includes like, a larger regional bank

We find out in 3 years that this meant all regional banks started buying 10x levered inverse NFT funds last week

Look, we already know this is an oligarchy. Too big to fail was always going to mean rich people can't ever be allowed to lose.

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:34

Mr Hootington: Jul 24, 2008; I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Seems bitcoin people have pivoted to a message of "Powell and the Fed is making USD worthless so you need to decide if you want Bitcoin or the yolk of digital Yuan of communist China."

Mr Hootington has issued a correction as of 18:42 on Mar 21, 2023

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:36

Woke Mind Virus: Aug 22, 2005

Thorn Wishes Talon posted:

you always think that, though

the banks are strong and stable

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:37

Cuttlefush: Jan 15, 2014; gotta have my purp

Mr Hootington posted:

Seems bitcoin people have pivoted to a message of "Powell and the Fed is making USD worthless so you need to decide if you want Bitcoin or the yolk of digital Yuan of communist China."

i would like the yolk plz

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:38

wynott dunn: Aug 9, 2006; What is to be done?

Who or what can challenge, and stand a chance at beating, the corporate juggernauts dominating the world?

I want Xi�s creamy yolk in my working class

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:40

goth smoking cloves: Feb 28, 2011

Cuttlefush posted:

i would like the yolk plz

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:42

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

Basic Poster posted:

market based fascism with McDonald’s characteristics

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:44

Maed: Aug 23, 2006

euphronius posted:

there is also nowhere for the money to go

my bank account has lots of space, I'm nowhere near the 250k insured level

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:47

uber_stoat: Jan 21, 2001; Pillbug

"so this product you're selling, who is it for? what demo are you aiming this at?"

"ok, cool. here's 50 million dollars."

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:49

Delta-Wye: Sep 29, 2005

Mr Hootington posted:

Me 🤝 Tucker Carlson

an increasingly nervous tucker carlson, tugging on his collar

c'mon guys, please don't destroy the country, we have a good scam running here

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:50

PoundSand: Jul 30, 2021; Also proficient with kites

Eric Cantonese posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHUtHITYb94

Okay I did it, I threw last year's max contribution into a vanguard retirement account, officially ready for a crash.

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:57

thechosenone: Mar 21, 2009

Lol Tucker slowly crack-pinging against his will, wonder how long they keep him on the show before they get scared he flips.

# ? Mar 21, 2023 18:59

Eric Cantonese: Dec 21, 2004; You should hear my accent.

PoundSand posted:

Okay I did it, I threw last year's max contribution into a vanguard retirement account, officially ready for a crash.

(Crosses fingers for you.) At least you can deduct the amount from your taxes. How far are you away from being 59 1/2 years old?

# ? Mar 21, 2023 19:00

Basic Poster: May 11, 2015; Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.

On Facebook

thechosenone posted:

Lol Tucker slowly crack-pinging against his will, wonder how long they keep him on the show before they get scared he flips.

Mr. Carlson, welcome to the resistance.

# ? Mar 21, 2023 19:07

Twerk from Home: Jan 17, 2009; This avatar brought to you by the 'save our dead gay forums' foundation.

thechosenone posted:

Lol Tucker slowly crack-pinging against his will, wonder how long they keep him on the show before they get scared he flips.

Tucker Carlson is not changing anything, nor will he flip.

He's a loving Nazi. He has always wanted subsidized, protected good jobs for white christian american men. This is inline with what he has always said and done.

# ? Mar 21, 2023 19:08

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

Twerk from Home posted:

Tucker Carlson is not changing anything, nor will he flip.

He's a loving Nazi. He has always wanted subsidized, protected good jobs for white christian american men. This is inline with what he has always said and done.

He's the heir to the Swanson frozen food fortune. He doesn't even need to go on TV and trade his soul for money. He does this poo poo for the love of the game.

# ? Mar 21, 2023 19:09

RealityWarCriminal: Aug 10, 2016

buncha libs shocked to learn class consciousness means sympathy for working class whites

# ? Mar 21, 2023 19:09

FUCK COREY PERRY: Apr 19, 2008

anime was right posted:

no idea whats gonna happen. its gonna be stupid though. god its going to be so loving stupid.

# ? Mar 21, 2023 19:09

Casey Finnigan: Apr 30, 2009; Dumb ✔
So goddamn crazy ✔

Twerk from Home posted:

Tucker Carlson is not changing anything, nor will he flip.

He's a loving Nazi. He has always wanted subsidized, protected good jobs for white christian american men. This is inline with what he has always said and done.

yeah but it's interesting to see a dipshit like him acknowledge reality in terms of the failure of capitalism I guess. This poo poo is getting unsustainable and it's obvious to everyone

# ? Mar 21, 2023 19:15

Jaxyon: Mar 7, 2016; I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

thechosenone posted:

Lol Tucker slowly crack-pinging against his will, wonder how long they keep him on the show before they get scared he flips.

something something about how we can just raise class consciousness in racist whites they'll vote for brown leftists

# ? Mar 21, 2023 19:16

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# ? May 23, 2024 09:19

PoundSand: Jul 30, 2021; Also proficient with kites

Casey Finnigan posted:

yeah but it's interesting to see a dipshit like him acknowledge reality in terms of the failure of capitalism I guess. This poo poo is getting unsustainable and it's obvious to everyone

That's always a part I found strangely confusing I mean surely a big collapse would hurt everyone right. Proportionally of course the poor will suffer more but if you just grind america in a general sense down into poverty the rich people won't be as rich as they once were and that seems like it should be something they'd want to avoid?

# ? Mar 21, 2023 19:17

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Doomsday Economics] Home of Kirbeh's $18 half-slice (now with 50% fewer calories!)

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