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(Thread IKs: skooma512)
 
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webcams for christ
Nov 2, 2005

RealityWarCriminal posted:

No new covid cases by end of April
:golfclap:

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Nothus
Feb 22, 2001

Buglord
we really are getting high rates and the money hose at the same time

net work error
Feb 26, 2011

New goon project. Collectively buy a Bloomberg terminal to become notorious terminal poo poo posters and trolls

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.
Seriously though it owns that BTC is replacing gold as the 'scared idiot' magical asset of choice, even though it's somehow even more stupid

Penisaurus Sex
Feb 3, 2009

asdfghjklpoiuyt
The terminal fund rate probably needs to be around 7-8% to have any real effect on inflation due to the labor shortage.

going to be very funny for this to happen like clockwork for the rest of my life as we asymptotically approach 8%.

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Nothus posted:

we really are getting high rates and the money hose at the same time

yeah WE are getting high rates the money hose is a much lower rate

Archduke Frantz Fanon
Sep 7, 2004

Bananasaurus Rex posted:

"some additional firming"

:q:

webcams for christ
Nov 2, 2005

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY
Having QT and a form of QE going at the same time is also novel

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Penisaurus Sex posted:

The terminal fund rate probably needs to be around 7-8% to have any real effect on inflation due to the labor shortage.

going to be very funny for this to happen like clockwork for the rest of my life as we asymptotically approach 8%.

Given that we've learned a bunch of huge banks hold piles of long-duration, low-yield securities for some loving reason I think that would be enough to actually kill the USA banking industry outright

It's time.

RealityWarCriminal
Aug 10, 2016

:o:

Nothus posted:

we really are getting high rates and the money hose at the same time

they've created a perfect storm where they can't raise rates or banks fail, and they can't lower rates without admitting the last few years were for nothing. it owns

HAIL eSATA-n
Apr 7, 2007


Vox Nihili posted:

Won't need to worry about any of that in a war with China because we'll have been reduced to atoms before our numbers get pulled

president xi, please, my people yearn for freedom from their corporeal form

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

Mr Hootington posted:

Having QT and a form of QE going at the same time is also novel

My experts have assured me this will create a new type of economic bubble that will never burst.

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ckPatPBAk8

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017



✔️ ROBUST
✔️ SOUND
✔️ RESILIENT

HallelujahLee
May 3, 2009

they should try finding new words

Hockenheim
Oct 20, 2022

by VG

RealityWarCriminal posted:

they've created a perfect storm where they can't raise rates or banks fail, and they can't lower rates without admitting the last few years were for nothing. it owns

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.
One day we will remove the inefficiencies and just run the money printer directly into the toilet

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer
Money printer for some, miniature American flags for others

Nothus
Feb 22, 2001

Buglord

Subvisual Haze posted:

One day we will remove the inefficiencies and just run the money printer directly into the toilet

They're propping up zombie banks, so that's pretty much what's happening.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1638604634494234626?t=QRDf36GNmRwwD9KT_f9RYg&s=19
https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1638606407053332480?t=1ohHpuZyqXR8swriYmfimA&s=19

https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1638602499002363905?t=2ryuqLlaS-RU9TUobsBBlQ&s=19
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1638603142245023750?t=VdbCSILXoLjA6j4vllpZ9w&s=19

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007
Jay is now entering and stumbling around and oh god he just threw up all over himself.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

They say credit conditions are tightening but I still keep getting mailers from banks begging me to borrow enormous sums of money from them for no reason

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Mr Hootington posted:

That says they are giving up on inflation and hoping it starts going down before they rate cute.

It looks like they raised their guess of what they'd have the fed funds rate in 2024 by 0.2% though? (2000 basis points)

webcams for christ
Nov 2, 2005

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Vox Nihili posted:

They say credit conditions are tightening but I still keep getting mailers from banks begging me to borrow enormous sums of money from them for no reason

gonna bite soon on a 0% interest for 18 months credit card, i can't believe i'm still getting these offers

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007
LETS FUKIN GOOOO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Co3WU9xjQkM

Barrel Cactaur
Oct 6, 2021

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

lol yeah

If the endless supply of trinkets ever stops showing up at Walmart, the 'middle class' would collapse overnight. Americans straight up have no life outside of shopping.

Interesting way to write Chinese economy dies as it no longer trades finished goods for raw materials, food, and medicine. Please recall Russia is currently being fought off with essentially spares. Russian stability has been based on a carefully structured prison house of nations being run by the biggest gang. China has based it on economic prosperity. Crashing Russias raw materials export market was never going to stop them, because someone will always take the deal. But China is much more vulnerable. Military needs just can't take up the slack, or provide the food in short order. Their poor agricultural disease control makes this extra fragile.

Additionally they don't have uncontested control of the SCS like the US has uncontested control of the East Pacific and Atlantic seaboard. The US can rebuild it's conventional navy far out of reach, while China can't prevent attacks from being staged from the whole region, a region it has not made an effort to be a good neighbor in.


The US can commit enough navel and air power to permanently eliminate Chinas navy, take 100% losses, and move enough assets from current active duty to do it twice more. In a more realistic scenario, it's enough to keep the Chinese navy bottled in port and fight it as an air war where both sides lob missiles at each other's planes from standoff range until we figure out how to resolve a nuclear power conflict with no nukes.

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


SKULL.GIF posted:

✔️ ROBUST
✔️ SOUND
✔️ RESILIENT

YOUR FUNDS ARE ✔️ SAFE

RealityWarCriminal
Aug 10, 2016

:o:

weird how that keeps happening

webcams for christ
Nov 2, 2005

literal "funds are safu" disclaimer at the top

JamesKPolk
Apr 9, 2009

Nothus posted:

we really are getting high rates and the money hose at the same time

zirp for me but not for thee

JamesKPolk
Apr 9, 2009

Mr Hootington posted:

Having QT and a form of QE going at the same time is also novel

its like when I untuck my shirt a bit so my pants will button all the way

Morbus
May 18, 2004

NeonPunk posted:

I don't think this would happen anymore. My brother has been job seeking for over a year and in the past few months, the job offers wage salary has been smaller and smaller compared to last year.

The great resignation period is over, you cannot just quit and find a higher paying job that easily anymore

Yeah but that was the entire point of raising interest rates.

The "inflation" that mattered most was always wage growth--even if it was not keeping up with price growth or if aggregate profits were growing with it.

Oglethorpe
Aug 8, 2005

"the unusual funding needs that some banks have faced. our banking system is strong and resilient"

webcams for christ
Nov 2, 2005

Jay: labor is too strong!

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



i think the idea going forward is that rates still go up for everything but now banks get to refinance all their bonds at the higher rates

net work error
Feb 26, 2011

ChatJayQT

net work error
Feb 26, 2011

https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1638610346460979207?t=32_0sMkilMhgO5pTyZnFbw&s=19

Ahahahahahahahahhhaahaahha

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Morbus
May 18, 2004

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

Millennials grew up during a home price lull? Are they just making poo poo up now? The oldest millennials were in their late twenties when the 2007 real estate bubble popped.

just lol if u didn't take advantage of the robust post-2008 job market to buy a house immediately after entering the labor force

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