[Asia/Oceania] Yellen says she hopes China wont mount retaliation against any steps Washington takes

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Asia/Oceania] Yellen says she hopes China wont mount retaliation against any steps Washington takes

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(Thread IKs: fart simpson)

Doktor Avalanche: Dec 30, 2008

Maed posted:

they’ll need a jobber to lose academic debates about why the eternal science is superior to decadent US capitalism, you’d be great for that!

Rask with a folder full of carefully curated misleading and incorrect graphs that are supposed to be expertly debunked by a communist tucker carlson

# ? May 14, 2023 22:12

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 26, 2024 14:41

eSports Chaebol: Feb 22, 2005; Yeah, actually, gamers in the house forever,

stephenthinkpad posted:

Does anything know why the drop happened before Trump took office?

it kind of makes sense there would be a tipping point once finally enough people who could afford to go to America simply didn�t consider it more prestigious than studying in China, it makes American universities seem exponentially less prestigious in a downward spiral

# ? May 14, 2023 22:16

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

That F1 visa drop had to be caused by US visa policy change. The change is too fast to be natural. But I don't remember reading anything about it in '14 or '15.

# ? May 14, 2023 22:21

Weka: May 5, 2019; That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

Raskolnikov38 posted:

I probably should have specialized in Chinese history rather than American, I doubt any Chinese universities will ever hire a us history professor

Either way you probably have been / would have been taught wrong, ~~as a joke~~ because of a false belief in liberal economic theories.

# ? May 14, 2023 23:31

FrancisFukyomama: Feb 4, 2019

ikanreed posted:

Nah, it's China's choice here. They are extremely restrictive in using and sharing human genome data. Like imagine if you actually considered people's genes to be their private medical data, that's what their laws do.

i know that their GMO policy is also pretty restrictive, they seem to err on the side of caution with biotech in general

# ? May 15, 2023 00:04

GlassEye-Boy: Jul 12, 2001

FrancisFukyomama posted:

i know that their GMO policy is also pretty restrictive, they seem to err on the side of caution with biotech in general

Given China's recent history with agriculture anything that may affect the food supply is very closely watched.

# ? May 15, 2023 01:48

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

�1992 consensus� basis for peace: Terry Gou

quote:

Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) yesterday said he would restart negotiations with Beijing on the basis of �one China, with different interpretations� that reaffirm the foundations and stance of the Republic of China (ROC) if elected president next year.

Gou, who is vying for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential nomination, said he would use Kinmen as the location for negotiations.

Gou made the remark during a visit to Kinmen yesterday, in what he called a �peace declaration.�

It is the People�s Republic of China (PRC) that says: �We are all Chinese� and �Both sides are one big family,� Gou said.

The PRC demonstrates hostility with its military exercises, he said.

However, Beijing�s actions are not targeting Taiwanese, but when they do, they are reactions to provocations by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

The �1992 consensus� states that there is one China, with each side of the Taiwan Strait having its own interpretation of what �China� means,� but �one China� and �each side having its own interpretation� are equally important, he said.

The �1992 consensus,� a term former Mainland Affairs Council chairman Su Chi (蘇起) in 2006 admitted making up in 2000, refers to a tacit understanding between the KMT and the Chinese government that both sides of the Strait acknowledge there is �one China,� with each side having its own interpretation of what �China� means.

The consensus is the foundation for cross-strait talks, which were ongoing over the past two decades, but have ceased since relations regressed and both sides are preparing for war, he said.

This is because the DPP has made subtle changes to the consensus, saying that there are �two Chinas,� or �one China, one Taiwan,� or �one country on each side,� he added.

While spreading these slogans, the DPP has created discord among different ethnicities and torn Taiwan apart, he said.

The ROC and what it stands for must remain strong, a conviction that would assuage Beijing that Taiwanese independence is a non issue, removing the need for military harassment and affording both sides the time they need to hash out respective definitions of �China,� Gou said.

In response to Gou�s allegations that the DPP is provoking China with its policies, the Mainland Affairs Council yesterday said that the government has stood by principles of non-provocation and non-capitulation for the past seven years.

Taiwan would not tolerate any statement that Beijing makes under the threat of force, it said.

# ? May 15, 2023 02:48

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

Guo is throwing everything at the wall. I think he knows he is the underdog he has mouthing off everything plus radical ideas to have a chance. I don't blame him.

# ? May 15, 2023 03:28

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

I posted this in the Ukraine thread but there's a ton of stuff here that's relevant to this thread as well

gradenko_2000 posted:

China, the Peacemaker?

quote:

This week on Intercepted, hosts Jeremy Scahill and Murtaza Hussain are joined by Alfred W. McCoy, the Harrington professor of history at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the author of �To Govern the Globe: World Orders and Catastrophic Change.�

...

Alfred McCoy is the Harrington Professor of History at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He�s the author of several really important books, most recently, �In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Decline of U.S. Global Power.� His newest book is �To Govern the Globe: World Orders and Catastrophic Change.�

Al McCoy�s latest article, which was published on Tom Dispatch, is titled �The Rise of China (and The Fall of the U.S.?): Tectonic Eruptions in Eurasia Erode America�s Global Power.� And in the article, Professor McCoy writes, �Unlike the U.S., China hasn�t spent significant effort establishing military bases, while Washington still maintains some 750 of them in 80 nations. Beijing has just one military base in Djibouti, on the east African coast, a signals intercept post on Myanmar�s Coco Islands in the Bay of Bengal, a compact installation in eastern Tajikistan, and half a dozen small outposts in the South China Sea.�

...

Back in 2014-2015, when China began dredging those half-dozen outposts in the South China Sea, I thought those were geopolitically significant, I started lecturing about them. And at one of my lectures done at Northwest University, a man who was a recently retired intelligence major in the Singapore Air Force popped up, and he said, �You seem to be implying that China was going to be exercising military power from those bases.� He said, �That�s not the way they operate.� He said, �They go very subtly, you know? They don�t want any eruptions, any confrontation. They just keep pushing very quietly.�

And indeed, you know, think about it. First, China began dredging in the South China Sea. And then they formed the islands, and then they built a few huts, and then they built some runways. And then they put on some radar, and then some jets. And then some anti-missile technology, linking those islands with China�s mainland missile capacity. And effectively, they�ve taken control over the South China Sea � one of the world�s most navigated waterways, linking the Middle East, let�s say, with Japan, on oil shipments, not to mention everything else. It�s one of the most trafficked corridors in the world. They�ve basically taken it over, they�ve captured a sea, and there�s never been a visible moment of confrontation. The United States Navy runs these freedom of navigation patrols constantly through there, but that doesn�t stop the Chinese. They just built it up steadily, pressure, pressure. You know, sort of sedulously, steadily, never provoking a confrontation.

...

And one of the things I think that their clear objective is going to be, of course, is Taiwan. And although there�s much speculation about war over Taiwan, that�s from an American/U.S. perspective, which equates global power with military power. China will just conduct a kind of geopolitical squeeze, play the way they got us out of Afghanistan, without firing a shot on the part of the Chinese, without doing anything, actually. They wanted us out of there and they got us out of there, in the same way that they got those islands in the South China Sea. They built those islands in the South China Sea. They effectively laid claim to that entire sea, and avoided a military confrontation. What I see them doing is continuing to build their military presence.

How do naval powers exercise their power? You know, we think of these great battles, like the Philippines Sea, or Midway, or Lepanto, or Trafalgar. You know, they happen every 1500 years, OK? That�s not the way naval power is exercised. Naval power is exercised by tracing a cat�s cradle of patrol lines across the maritime commons until that ocean is functionally yours. And that�s what China is going to do, and is doing it, and they�re going to continue. They will just patrol incessantly, so those waters between China and Taiwan become their water. They will maneuver diplomatically and economically, putting pressure on Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.

The Philippines swung towards China under Duterte, swung back towards the U.S. under Marcos Jr. It�ll swing. It�s swinging back and forth, all of those powers are going to be swinging back and forth. And, you know, China then will just announce that, One China policy, that this is their territory. Maybe they�ll just put a customs zone around Taiwan. They�ll cut the cables � the undersea cables. They�ll just put some patrols around Taiwan. They�ll overwhelm the Taiwan Air Force � not with combat � just with constant overflights.

And the United States will be in a position where we�re going to have to steam a full naval armada into the maw of Chinese power. And, you know, let�s face it, we have anti-missile capacity, but China�s got, right now, about 2,500 missiles that they can throw at our armada. One of them is going to hit. How many aircraft carriers are we going to lose? Two, three aircraft carriers? I mean, you know, what price are we going to pay? And we�re going to look like an aggressor. We�ll be attacking them. They won�t be attacking anybody. They�ll just be sailing ships and flying aircraft.

And so, Taiwan could, very readily, through this kind of geopolitical squeeze-play, fall into Beijing�s grasp. And what does that mean? Well, think about what I said earlier. The United States achieved its dominance over Eurasia at the end of World War II through two means: the NATO alliance, which is standing pretty strong these days, and then these bilateral pacts with five powers down the Pacific littoral and the first island chain. And if Taiwan goes, that breaks that chain, and maybe we get pushed back to the second island chain, which runs, basically, from Japan, due south, to Guam. And then, you know, our geopolitical position, which has been the basis of U.S. global power for the last 75 years, is essentially broken.

So, that�s the way I see the possibilities, that this growing geopolitical power can be translated into palpable diplomatic influence, palpable political military power.

...

The fact that the president of the Philippines is, in one of his first foreign trips, turning up in Washington, having a t�te-�-t�te with Biden, right at the time where the Philippines has swung back into the U.S. orbit. In March, the U.S. Defense Secretary went to the Philippines, and the Philippines gave the United States four more bases fronting on the South China Sea � a major concession. That�s a very important diplomatic statement.

Now, in terms of where the Philippines sits � First of all, China has begun investing substantially in the Philippines. It�s begun courting business elites, intellectual elites, OK? But the one inroad that China has not been able to make is with the Philippine military. The Philippine military has a civil military doctrine, very sympathetic to the United States. The People�s Liberation Army in China is integrated fully into the apparatus of power. There is no such idea of civil supremacy.

Moreover, for decades, we�ve been inviting Filipino officers to train in the United States. And although there was a rupture after the U.S. bases in the Philippines � the big base, Naval Base Subic Bay, the Air Force Base at Clarkfield � after those closed down at the end of the Cold War, there was a decade of hiatus when China began pushing into the South China Sea. Slowly, as the two nations sort of separated, and ended that very unequal post-colonial relationship that was an absolute affront to Filipino nationalism. And [the] Philippines is a nation with a long history of, you know, they had the first national revolution in Asia in 1896, alright? And then we intervened and colonized them. So they have a very strong national identity, and those bases were an absolutely affront to that national identity.

Now that they are out, and that has ended, and the two sides sort of pulled away and have come back with a clearer sense of their mutual national self-interest, with the military still basically oriented towards an American model, preferring American equipment, comfortable training in the United States, etc. You know, that is a very important basis for a continuing U.S. alliance. Whether that alliance will persist, as Chinese subtle pressure builds over time, that remains to be seen. They�ve already swung, under the last administration � President Duterte � towards Beijing, very clear that they could swing again. But, for the time being, that�s an indication that that part of the Pacific littoral from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, all the way down the straight, that�s holding firm, OK?

...

First of all, China as a world power � again, speculating � strengths and weaknesses. One of their weaknesses is a tendency towards arrogance. How can I put it? I mean, this is the oldest civilization in the world, and one that, historically, was at the epicenter of a self-contained Asian tributary system, which gives them an inclination to being enormously self-referential and arrogant, and you can see that with Duterte. They had this tremendous opening in the Philippines. He went to Beijing in October, 2016, and he proclaimed an end to the U.S. alliance and an opening with China. And China, weighing up relation to the Philippines, versus grabbing a pile of rocks in the South China Sea called the Scarborough Shoal � which [is] partially inside the Philippines� exclusive economic zone � China just decided that they would just bully the Philippines, grab the Scarborough Shoal. They harass Filipino fishermen. They harass Filipino naval vessels. They�ve driven the Philippines into Washington�s arms. It didn�t have to happen, but China�s arrogance towards this lesser power accomplished that. So, that�s one of their liabilities, they have that inclination.

Their strength, however, is that they generally avoid the complex array of democracy, human rights, and rule of law that the United States � and one can say, you know, thankfully � has made a part of its relations with nations around the world. China has a very limited standard for doing business with other nations. Basically, business. You know, the lowest common denominator of mutual interest. You�ve got resources and we�ve got a market, let�s do business. You�ve got labor, we�ve got processing, let�s do business. Your government might be corrupt, your military abusive, your jails inhumane, but we can do business. OK?

So, China has strengths and weaknesses as a global power. In terms of American elites and red lines, if China continues in its current strategy of developing its geopolitical substrate, investing in infrastructure, building diplomatic relations, avoiding military confrontation, then having those geopolitical forces that I�ve been describing, trying to analyze and explain, having them produce an eruption like we�re seeing so many of recently, then the United States wouldn�t really have an opportunity for using its military force to counter China. If China managed the situation in Taiwan, took a longer period of time to get to its objective, and then did something like I described earlier � of imposing a web of naval patrols, overflights by ships, and then basically imposing a customs control over its sovereign territory in Taiwan, that would be Beijing�s words � that would put the United States and its allies, Japan and the Philippines, where we would have to be going to war, we would be the aggressor. We would be the ones disrupting world peace, threatening thermonuclear war. Would we really do that? If China does it right, they can � as they have so many times in recent years � accomplish their objectives without sparking an overt military confrontation.

# ? May 15, 2023 05:43

Fuligin: Oct 27, 2010; wait what the fuck??

Are We Brave Enough To Be The Baddies?

# ? May 15, 2023 05:50

1stGear: Jan 16, 2010; Here's to the new us.

quote:

Their strength, however, is that they generally avoid the complex array of democracy, human rights, and rule of law that the United States � and one can say, you know, thankfully � has made a part of its relations with nations around the world. China has a very limited standard for doing business with other nations. Basically, business. You know, the lowest common denominator of mutual interest. You�ve got resources and we�ve got a market, let�s do business. You�ve got labor, we�ve got processing, let�s do business. Your government might be corrupt, your military abusive, your jails inhumane, but we can do business. OK?

aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

# ? May 15, 2023 06:02

Palladium: May 8, 2012; Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

1stGear posted:

aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

everyone: what? i can't hear you over the sound of nordstream blowing up in a rules-based way

# ? May 15, 2023 06:16

exmarx: Feb 18, 2012; The experience over the years
of nothing getting better
only worse.

In Training posted:

pretty good piece on the monopolization of Indian telecom services over the last 30 years. I had never thought of spectrum as a natural resource but of course it is, the extraction and valorization just doesn't happen with mines or drills. Duh doi.

yeah, there's now a spectrum allocation reserved for māori here as a result of a reparations process. makes all the worst people real mad.

# ? May 15, 2023 06:40

Zudgemud: Mar 1, 2009; Grimey Drawer

FrancisFukyomama posted:

i know that their GMO policy is also pretty restrictive, they seem to err on the side of caution with biotech in general

It feels pretty dumb to be overly restrictive of GMO if you are not chained to capitalism that demand an increase in profits for every GMO investment made. There are enormous amounts of genetic modifications on crops that can be safely made to better crops in ways that are not really profitable but simply good for public health.

# ? May 15, 2023 07:37

atelier morgan: Mar 11, 2003; super-scientific, ultra-gay; Lipstick Apathy

Zudgemud posted:

It feels pretty dumb to be overly restrictive of GMO if you are not chained to capitalism that demand an increase in profits for every GMO investment made. There are enormous amounts of genetic modifications on crops that can be safely made to better crops in ways that are not really profitable but simply good for public health.

and chinese scientists do plenty of research into those modifications

they just finished testing the latest salt-resistant rice strain last october

they're still ahead in genetics papers, just not as far ahead as other fields that can have fewer consequences

# ? May 15, 2023 07:49

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

So what is the low-down on the Thai elections

# ? May 15, 2023 07:54

genericnick: Dec 26, 2012

gradenko_2000 posted:

So what is the low-down on the Thai elections

Idk, but there's a thread

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

bumping this thread to say that the junta held an actual election for some reason and has been absolutely crushed, with the leftwing successor to the New Future Party currently leading and Thaksin's party second. the juntas parties are 4th and 5th lmao.

# ? May 15, 2023 08:03

Telluric Whistler: Sep 14, 2008

gradenko_2000 posted:

I posted this in the Ukraine thread but there's a ton of stuff here that's relevant to this thread as well

It's going to be cool when the US fires the first volley in this war and we get the "They made us do it" argument.

# ? May 15, 2023 08:06

comedyblissoption: Mar 15, 2006

Cpt_Obvious posted:

https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1656309716354572289

how aware are people living in taiwan that multiple us officials have said they want to bomb and cripple taiwan lol

# ? May 15, 2023 10:49

comedyblissoption: Mar 15, 2006

could the us obviously bomb TSMC and have the taiwan and western governments agree that china bombed it?

# ? May 15, 2023 10:51

Palladium: May 8, 2012; Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

comedyblissoption posted:

how aware are people living in taiwan that multiple us officials have said they want to bomb and cripple taiwan lol

you can't wake up people that are pretending to be asleep
-some chinese saying

# ? May 15, 2023 10:58

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

comedyblissoption posted:

could the us obviously bomb TSMC and have the taiwan and western governments agree that china bombed it?

Russia bombed TSMC

# ? May 15, 2023 11:05

comedyblissoption: Mar 15, 2006

Kindest Forums User posted:

she's a nk spy and trained to say the most ludicrous stuff with the intent of having westerners start to actually question the bullshit coverage of nk.

It's a great plan cause worst case scenario people still believe in bullshit but the nk spy agency get some good laughs. Best scenario it works and embarresses idiots like Joe Rogan and other conservative media figures

joe rogan is a liberal

# ? May 15, 2023 11:21

Orange Devil: Oct 1, 2010; Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!

Pretty sure Joe Rogan is just whomever he last talked to.

# ? May 15, 2023 11:30

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

If [redacted] can bomb TSMC secretly with plausible deniability they would definitely do it. But there are many TSMC plants in Taiwan so its not going to be a "clean" as the Nordstrom pipeline.

They can also cut the undersea fiberoptic cables and easily blame it on the other side.

Or [redacted] can just take the easy route and freeze all the Taiwanese foreign reserve and use it the fund the Taiwanese Juan Guaido government.

# ? May 15, 2023 11:34

crepeface: Nov 5, 2004; r*p*f*c*

Telluric Whistler posted:

It's going to be cool when the US fires the first volley in this war and we get the "They made us do it" argument.

lol they're going to say the same things as Russia is saying now re: Ukraine but with less legitimacy and better reception

# ? May 15, 2023 11:37

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

gradenko_2000 posted:

So what is the low-down on the Thai elections

Thaksin's daughter already said they don't want to form an united government, so likely the number 1 guy (Harvard dude) will form a government with one of the smaller parties.

And then clock start ticking until the nuForward party gets disbanded by the constitutional court again. I give it 2-3 years.

# ? May 15, 2023 11:45

Isentropy: Dec 12, 2010

stephenthinkpad posted:

Thaksin's daughter already said they don't want to form an united government, so likely the number 1 guy (Harvard dude) will form a government with one of the smaller parties.

And then clock start ticking until the nuForward party gets disbanded by the constitutional court again. I give it 2-3 years.

he sounds neoliberal what with the Harvard education and the Guardian saying he wants to break up monopolies held by the military

I�m guessing he does have a lot of popular support amount youth between �maybe people can get jobs�/�no more draft�/�maybe we shouldn�t protect the king from any and all criticism ever, that one is dead�

the last one (respect the righteous and pious king) will be the excuse when he gets ousted for loving with the first one (military monopolies) too much

# ? May 15, 2023 12:05

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

Isentropy posted:

he sounds neoliberal what with the Harvard education and the Guardian saying he wants to break up monopolies held by the military

I�m guessing he does have a lot of popular support amount youth between �maybe people can get jobs�/�no more draft�/�maybe we shouldn�t protect the king from any and all criticism ever, that one is dead�

the last one (respect the righteous and pious king) will be the excuse when he gets ousted for loving with the first one (military monopolies) too much

Good point, I haven't thought about that. This guy (Pita) probably will get very strong US support. But stepping on that "criticizing the King" redline one inch too far will spell his doom.

Look at this election map, Thailand still has the traditional North/South divide pass down from the red shirt/yellow shirt unrest.
https://twitter.com/thebamfbeeij/status/1657754316990562304?s=20

The Thaksin party still get their power base from the north/rural area, and this new "forward" party gets the vote from the south/metropolitan/royalist. Also the red/yellow color stays.

edit, here is the old election map

stephenthinkpad has issued a correction as of 12:36 on May 15, 2023

# ? May 15, 2023 12:33

Truga: May 4, 2014; Lipstick Apathy

gradenko_2000 posted:

Russia bombed TSMC

to show they could bomb other SMCs?

# ? May 15, 2023 12:39

Tankbuster: Oct 1, 2021

As an aside the BJP also lost in 64 out of 90 village council elections.

# ? May 15, 2023 13:00

euphronius: Feb 18, 2009

Raskolnikov38 posted:

in good news, the people of the prc have realized that American education is absolute garbage and are ceasing to subsidize football stadiums with the hilariously overinflated international tuition

https://twitter.com/yan_alpinemacro/status/1657499903927435264?s=61&t=ekRyXxBjaNIALwWgK2O6xQ

interesting that that was going down even before covid

# ? May 15, 2023 13:02

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

euphronius posted:

interesting that that was going down even before covid

November 11, 2017:

Typo posted:

china is literally running the equivalent of palestine in xinjiang where they flooded the province with ethnic chinese settlers until the uyghur are a minority in their own homeland

# ? May 15, 2023 13:04

crepeface: Nov 5, 2004; r*p*f*c*

gradenko_2000 posted:

So what is the low-down on the Thai elections

the new atlas guy actually lives there and just did a vid about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WJOFH7yNkU

# ? May 15, 2023 13:06

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

euphronius posted:

interesting that that was going down even before covid

Trump admin put a big stop on Chinese visa applications. My retired mother in law couldn't even get a family visit visa to come take care of our newborn.

But this graph shows the F1 visa peak was in 2014-2015.

# ? May 15, 2023 13:11

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Yeah, forward seems very obviously a beltway owned lib party, the question is if Pheu is going to throw in their lot with them or the military.

Honestly, the big shift really seems to have been that the Thai monarchy and the military use to be pretty reliable allies and the government has been shifting along with more AESAN and now yellow shirts and former royalists are now �the resistance.�

# ? May 15, 2023 13:20

KomradeX: Oct 29, 2011

Palladium posted:

everyone: what? i can't hear you over the sound of nordstream blowing up in a rules-based way

Mass graves from Indonesia to Chile: The Rules Based International Order

# ? May 15, 2023 13:56

Palladium: May 8, 2012; Very Good
✔️✔️✔️✔️

KomradeX posted:

Mass graves from Indonesia to Chile: The Rules Based International Order

the most capitalist country� regards everyone else as selfish Machiavellian realists while also perpetually surprised that they only care about chinese money instead of american hooman rights

# ? May 15, 2023 14:12

gradenko_2000: Oct 5, 2010; HELL SERPENT; Lipstick Apathy

https://twitter.com/linenuism/status/1658086885737250817

The song is "Dakilang Pakikibaka", or "the Great Struggle"

here is a full video with translations of the lyrics

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBTNjfuLW5Y

gradenko_2000 has issued a correction as of 15:13 on May 15, 2023

# ? May 15, 2023 15:10

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 26, 2024 14:41

stephenthinkpad: Jan 2, 2020

gradenko_2000 posted:

I posted this in the Ukraine thread but there's a ton of stuff here that's relevant to this thread as well

I listen to this, about time we get a new Realist scholar. Hopefully he won't get marginalized.

His scenario of how China will enforce the Once China Policy around Taiwan is IMO much more realistic than all the Pentagon wargame scenarios. I think I am going go find his books.

But his idea that Putin had to wait restlessly around Xi until the winter Olympic is over before he could go into Ukraine thus missed the mud frozen season and hosed up the initial invasion is very funny.

Alfred McCoy posted:

AM: Let�s look at the diplomatic optics that we talked about, where people go to pay court. You know, Iran, Saudi Arabian foreign minister is going to Beijing, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. going to Washington. And let�s wind back to the start of the Ukraine-Russian war.

In February of last year, Putin came to Beijing on the eve, the very start, of the Beijing Winter Olympics. And he desperately needed a strong statement from Xi Jinping, essentially giving him an alliance, because he knew what he was going to be rupturing. He was going to be breaking the decades-long relationship with Europe. If he didn�t know that, he�s a fool, and he�s not a fool, OK? And so, he needed a diplomatic counter on the Eurasian landmass to his loss of support � the antagonism that he would be provoking by his invasion in Europe � by going to China. And they made that 5,000-word statement, they proclaimed a relationship that was stronger than the Cold War alliance, as a reference to the Sino-Soviet Alliance signed in 1950 between Mao and Stalin.

And then, of course, it was clearly understood that Putin couldn�t disrupt China�s party for the Winter Olympics. They�d hosted this, this was their moment on the global stage. And so, his troops were massed, sitting in frozen February, right on the Ukraine border, 200,000 troops, a couple thousand tanks ready to roll across the border. And they basically had to wait until the Olympics were over, so that, by the time they rolled, the frozen ground of February had become the mud of March. And of course, those very heavy Russian tanks can�t maneuver offroad in mud. They formed the world�s longest traffic jam � a 40-mile traffic jam on that one highway going down to Kyiv. That set them up so that the Ukrainian forces could destroy, I think, 2,500 armored vehicles. And every time they tried to maneuver offroad, they foundered in the mud. And the bold strike to capture Kyiv with his massive armored invasion ended. And that was the sacrifice that Putin had to make.

# ? May 15, 2023 16:26

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [Asia/Oceania] Yellen says she hopes China wont mount retaliation against any steps Washington takes

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