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Ms Adequate posted:Well, surely the idea behind such criticism is that there should be such an operation in play? Justice Dems would be the closest, right? The sunrise coalition or whatever they were called. Found and got most of the squad elected didn't they. Gyges posted:Only one guy has gone from the House of Representatives to the White House: Garfield. Lincoln lost a famous Senate bid after his single term. That's it. Everyone else held a higher office, got that Military cred, or hosed up their plan to lose the election and start a media brand. You don't go from 3rd tier famous House Rep to upsetting the sitting President of you party. I'm not sure if you've noticed this but it turns out you don't even need to be in politics at all. And she would be so drat good at the job. And she'd be great in the campaign too. And I'm not talking about upsetting anyone yet, I'm talking about a peaceful transition.
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Nov 23, 2023 12:25
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Shooting Blanks posted:The initial reporting I saw was simply that a car exploded on the bridge, and that it was too early to speculate as to anything else besides that. Which is exactly what needs to be said by news sources when an event like this is reported on, though nothing can be done about individuals (and forums!) speculating about what happened. Fox News had something like “Source inside Border Security says this was terror related” as a headline, but the line between news and entertainment is vague
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Nov 23, 2023 13:02
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Ulta posted:Fox News had something like “Source inside Border Security says this was terror related” as a headline, but the line between news and entertainment is vague Latest reporting is that there is no indication of terrorism wrt to the car explosion. https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/22/us/niagara-falls-rainbow-bridge/index.html quote:The explosion on the eve of the US Thanksgiving holiday led to closures and delays on a busy travel day and early on, prompted concerns it might be a terror attack, but the incident does not appear to be terror-related, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said. So, as usual, with our 24 hour news cycle, the race to report this first ended up blowing this totally out of proportion, and basically gave free publicity and a megaphone to whatever terror group the news teams ran with before they could verify.
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Nov 23, 2023 13:49
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Discendo Vox posted:Speaking of the Democratic primary, I think a lot of the Kennedy name streangth is with boomers and their love of jfk and rfk being the young heroes slain before they could make a better world or some such palaver. The guys murder was a cultural touchstone to boomers and both of them dying violent deaths while young allows boomers to make them into political tabula rasas, but no one younger gives a poo poo about the name outside history or conspiracy stuff. All the Kennedys now have is name recognition and local good will/power, but that didn’t help Patrick win the senate and it’s not helping rfk jr now.
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Nov 23, 2023 14:01
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Ulta posted:Fox News had something like “Source inside Border Security says this was terror related” as a headline, but the line between news and entertainment is vague Yeah but that could be a random-rear end border guard from Texas rambling about the "crisis at the border" and throwing that out there as proof about how the terrorists are coming for us.
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Nov 23, 2023 14:23
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https://twitter.com/humeyra_pamuk/status/1727663779138117665 In happier news. weird ghoul is getting charged. anyway happy thanksgiving to all US goons and such.
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Nov 23, 2023 15:27
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Bucky Fullminster posted:To be clear, I'm asking the question and phrasing it that way because the incumbent in this case seems so ill-suited to the monumental task at hand The reality, as others have said, is that when Biden is polled against any other alternative Dem candidate, people prefer Biden. Everybody is convinced that his age is an achilles heel. After all, he's "unpopular," but his policies don't seem to be, and his party certainly doesn't seem to be, so people need to find an explanation for it. And I mean, we can look at Biden and clearly see, "man, that dude is super loving old." So right now is that everybody left of Manchin is having a poo poo fit, because they're upset about running this old sad loser candidate. But as we've pointed out, no other candidate polls better, and his polling matchups against Trump right now are not predictive and not terribly out of line with what Obama was getting a year out of the election. But those aren't even the most important thing to know, when evaluating Biden as a candidate, this is: Biden isn't unpopular. At least in any kind of way we shouldn't expect literally any US president to be unpopular. Politicians are unpopular. Globally.  (kinda sucks that the most popular leader in the world by far is the one who runs the most populous country and is a giant racist a-hole but oh well) (e: Forgot attribution: it's Morning Consult. Page is paywalled but stays up long enough that I was able to take a screenshot of the table.  )If you told me there was a person who could be POTUS for the last three years and have an approval rating >50% right now I'd laugh in your face. If it wasn't age, it would be something else. Bucky Fullminster posted:Is anyone in his circle trying to convince him to step aside? Can the public? Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 15:59 on Nov 23, 2023 |
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Nov 23, 2023 15:39
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Ravenfood posted:Yeah but that could be a random-rear end border guard from Texas rambling about the "crisis at the border" and throwing that out there as proof about how the terrorists are coming for us. Oh 100% this is Fox getting someone to say “We haven’t ruled out terrorism” and putting it in to boomer click bait traps
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Nov 23, 2023 16:24
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Misunderstood posted:I just wanted to point out that this is based on almost nothing. It's a press narrative. Not talking about press, just going by what I can see myself quote:the president has a super old face and is kind of mumbly sometimes. Face and head and body, and is pretty--to-super mumbly most-to-all of the time. And not just mumbly, the sentences themselves are often barely coherent, let alone presidential. quote:The reality, as others have said, is that when Biden is polled against any other alternative Dem candidate, people prefer Biden. ah ok well if the polling says we're cool then nevermind I guess. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 23, 2023 16:36
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Bucky Fullminster posted:Not talking about press, just going by what I can see myself You have some examples?
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Nov 23, 2023 16:51
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Gyges posted:Only one guy has gone from the House of Representatives to the White House: Garfield. Abolishing Mondays is probably even more popular than fixing daylight savings.
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Nov 23, 2023 16:58
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Bucky Fullminster posted:I meant the generic "next" election is the one that counts, but yes, this coming one does continue the trend of mattering exponentially more. Those ones were incredibly important too. 2016 screwed the world, 2020 momentarily staved off its destruction, and now the destruction is right back on the table, and the way that the republicans have dropped pretty much all pretence and are going for open fascism seems different. There certainly is an argument that could be made to that effect. There's no real evidence for that argument, and in fact it flies in the face of pretty much all the evidence we have, but you could try to make that argument. You're not really making that argument, though, you're just blindly asserting it rather than trying to actually argue it. Honestly, to me it just sounds like a repeat of old 2016/2020 tropes about how the person who wins a competitive primary and then a competitive general is just a terrible candidate no one likes, and that clearly this other candidate who badly lost the primary or didn't even bother to run would have done way better.
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Nov 23, 2023 17:18
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Bucky Fullminster posted:Not talking about press, just going by what I can see myself Bucky Fullminster posted:Face and head and body, and is pretty--to-super mumbly most-to-all of the time. And not just mumbly, the sentences themselves are often barely coherent, let alone presidential. When's the last time you watched him speak for more than 10-20 seconds? Honest question. Here are some recent Biden appearances: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwdOKM4Kqos - Biden addresses APEC CEO summit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xD1S-9eSL4 - Biden press conference after meeting with President Xi (This link also includes him taking live questions) He's mostly fine. He certainly biffs a lot more sentences than your average high-level politician would (maybe 1 out of 50? 1 out of 100?) but to say he's incoherent "most-to-all" of the time suggests that you aren't actually watching or listening to him. While he's perfectly comprehensible if you listen half-attentively, he does have trouble sounding compelling when he speaks; he has trouble grabbing attention. But keep in mind that the contrast we're dealing with in terms of the last two presidents: a soaring orator who became president pretty much entirely on his ability to give good speeches, and an extremely media-trained TV monster who has conditioned his entire personality to grab attention at the expense of literally any other principle. Bucky Fullminster posted:ah ok well if the polling says we're cool then nevermind I guess. Not worried about presidential polling because we haven't had any campaigning so far and poll results from a year before the election historically have zero correlation with eventual results (not because the polls are bad or "wrong", but because there's no reason to think people will feel the same way after 6 months of listening to these old fuckers every day as they do right now.) Misunderstood fucked around with this message at 17:33 on Nov 23, 2023 |
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Nov 23, 2023 17:22
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Republicans are united behind a frontrunner before their primary has even happened. Democrats are at their most divided, still mulling whether to have a last minute primary. It's a tough call. It's not an ideal situation. From where I'm sitting, I think for everyone that voted for Biden in 2020 nothing has changed. A new candidate risks not capturing that same coalition. There are a lot of people upset (very understandably) with the situation in Gaza. They need to understand that no other democrat who would win the primary is gonna be any better on I/P. The other issue is RFK. Right now, a lot of young people are allured by the protest vote because he polls high enough it looks like he could win. The problem is the electoral college makes it impossible. In a 3 way race even if RFK won the plurality of states, he wouldn't get 270 EVs and it would go to the House Republicans. So a vote for RFK is very literally a vote for Trump. I think people don't understand this yet. We have several months for this stuff to circulate.
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Nov 23, 2023 17:26
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Did trump ever go back to twitter? If not, I’m amazed that his truth social contract is the first he’s ever actually honored.
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Nov 23, 2023 17:30
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Bodyholes posted:Republicans are united behind a frontrunner before their primary has even happened. Democrats are at their most divided, still mulling whether to have a last minute primary. Does anyone like rfk? I thought some trump voters liked him, but nobody else. Wasn’t he just talking about how Jews are immune to covid?
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Nov 23, 2023 17:34
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I AM GRANDO posted:Did trump ever go back to twitter? If not, I’m amazed that his truth social contract is the first he’s ever actually honored. I AM GRANDO posted:Does anyone like rfk? I thought some trump voters liked him, but nobody else. Wasn’t he just talking about how Jews are immune to covid?
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Nov 23, 2023 17:34
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If he was physically the walking, talking reincarnation of his father at 35 years old, I might be worried about Kennedy catching fire despite a nonsense platform. But he's just another shambling old man like Trump and Biden! He's 69 and has a vocal condition that makes him actually sound older than either!
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Nov 23, 2023 17:37
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Bodyholes posted:Republicans are united behind a frontrunner before their primary has even happened. Democrats are at their most divided, still mulling whether to have a last minute primary. I don't believe the Dems are actually mulling a last minute primary. Like a lot of other posters have pointed out, sticking with the incumbent is just what you do, barring something out of the pale like Biden eating a baby on live tv. Yeah, his supporters may not necessarily be wild about him, but they're going to back him, if only to vote against the bad orange man. On the whole, nobody seriously believes he's going to get primaried, and the party ledership isn't going to really acknowledge anyone's efforts to do so. The people trying to sell the narrative of a potential primary are the ones who have a vested interest in you clicking the links to their articles about potential primaries.
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Nov 23, 2023 17:39
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Misunderstood posted:He's 69 and has a vocal condition that makes him actually sound older than either! Even better, it makes him sound like a dying, racist robot
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Nov 23, 2023 17:41
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I AM GRANDO posted:Does anyone like rfk? I thought some trump voters liked him, but nobody else. Wasn’t he just talking about how Jews are immune to covid? Anti-Covid Trumpers like him, but he's drawing a lot of support from the left right now as purely a "gently caress you" vote to the two party system. It's not about his ideology but about sending an anti-establishment message. It's understandable, but the lefty zoomers he's winning in polls probably don't understand yet how impossible the EC makes it for him. They will have to go through the process of learning that A) he's a piece of poo poo and not good B) he has no chance to win. If he wins the popular vote it all but guarantees a Trump victory due to the advantageous design of the electoral system towards Republicans. C) if you don't want a 2nd Trump term the only choice is the democratic nominee, whoever it be. Cope, grieve, go through the process of accepting loss and then do what needs to be done. Bodyholes fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Nov 23, 2023 |
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Nov 23, 2023 17:41
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I AM GRANDO posted:Does anyone like rfk? I thought some trump voters liked him, but nobody else. Wasn’t he just talking about how Jews are immune to covid? Some polls are showing RFK with support as high as 20%, which is unusually high for a third-party candidate. Although we can expect that to shrink quite a bit as campaign season actually gets rolling and people start to take a real look at the candidates.
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Nov 23, 2023 17:53
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Main Paineframe posted:Honestly, to me it just sounds like a repeat of old 2016/2020 tropes about how the person who wins a competitive primary and then a competitive general is just a terrible candidate no one likes, and that clearly this other candidate who badly lost the primary or didn't even bother to run would have done way better. And of course, anybody who loses was a horrible choice that could have never won. Al Gore is kind of remembered as "huge loser who totally blew it" but if he had gotten an extra six hundred votes he could be the generally well-liked president from the aughts that we remembered fondly. Or the loser who blew it in '04 and gave up the White House to Republicans after three terms, and ruined America forever, just a big loser jerk like Jimmy Carter! It's all very post hoc, how we evaluate these people... One time we get a guy who people actually get excited about, and for some reason everybody thinks it's gonna happen every time. And that guy wasn't even an exceptionally good president! He was just okay! The Republicans finally get a candidate they're excited about, and... *gestures at American political landscape* It's probably not going to happen, but it would be good if everybody just completely went and reexamined what they are looking for in a presidential candidate.
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Nov 23, 2023 17:54
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I AM GRANDO posted:Did trump ever go back to twitter? If not, I’m amazed that his truth social contract is the first he’s ever actually honored. trump is a spiteful little poo poo and that's a much more compelling motivator than the attention he's currently getting he's also keeping it in his back pocket for whenever he feels like dominating a news cycle
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Nov 23, 2023 17:56
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Bodyholes posted:It's understandable, but the lefty zoomers he's winning in polls probably don't understand yet how impossible the EC makes it for him. They will have to go through the process of learning ... he has no chance to win You're dramatically underestimating these people. Every American old enough to vote knows that every third party candidate has virtually 0 chance to win any election, especially for POTUS, and that voting for one is a protest vote, equivalent to saying "I refuse to vote for either of the major-party candidates, here is an example of a candidate I would be willing to support." Another misunderstanding: It's not the electoral college that makes victory impossible for Kennedy, it's the first-past-the-post system where a vote that isn't for the winning candidate or runner-up candidate is a functionally wasted vote. Replacing the electoral college with a direct "most votes wins" system, like how most American elections work, would not make Kennedy a viable candidate. For third party candidates to be viable at the national level, we need a system of ranked and transferable votes. Your allusion to "If [Kennedy] wins the popular vote" indicates that you are the one concerned with totally impossible scenarios, indicating a wild overestimation of their probability. We might as well talk about how the electoral college outcome would be affected by France starting a nuclear bombing campaign against the Bible Belt. Civilized Fishbot fucked around with this message at 18:02 on Nov 23, 2023 |
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Nov 23, 2023 17:56
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Bodyholes posted:Anti-Covid Trumpers like him, but he's drawing a lot of support from the left right now as purely a "gently caress you" vote to the two party system. It's not about his ideology but about sending an anti-establishment message. It's understandable, but the lefty zoomers he's winning in polls probably don't understand yet how impossible the EC makes it for him. They will have to go through the process of learning that A) he's a piece of poo poo and not good B) he has no chance to win. If he wins the popular vote it all but guarantees a Trump victory due to the advantageous design of the electoral system towards Republicans. C) if you don't want a 2nd Trump term the only choice is the democratic nominee, whoever it be. Cope, grieve, go through the process of accepting loss and then do what needs to be done. Is he, Williamson is attracting way more zoomer/lefty protest votes and has mostly better ideas then rfk jr. I think most folks will probably line up behind Biden once it’s clear trump won the primary. Rfk doesn’t offer poo poo to anyone barring weird chuds.
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Nov 23, 2023 17:59
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It's hilarious that the people who post that "Biden must step down, why doesn't he?" have so little awareness of anything about Democratic politics or US presidential elections in general and how they work, and what candidates actually exist. The fact that the ones making this argument typically can only name candidates from the last Dem primary cycle like Pete or Kamala is telling. They only know those names or ones that have been put up in the the recent news cycles like joke candidates such as RFK Jr. Whitmer! Newsom! Pritzker! Sherrod Brown! Duckworth! Warner! Warren! Etc.! There's a reason these candidates with actual potential, unlike an RFK Jr or Marianne Williamson, have not thrown their hat in the ring and are not making noise in the media about Biden being a bad candidate, the same reason the people making these ridiculous arguments seem entirely unaware of their names.. because running against the incumbent President from your party is not a winning move, either for 2024 or for your future political prospects! There is a reason why it is never done. The only time the incumbent stepped down was LBJ and it didn't work out well. The only time in recent memory the incumbent Democrat was challenged was Carter by Ted Kennedy, and that didn't work out either.
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Nov 23, 2023 18:18
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I realize "First Past the Post" is a standard political science term, so I'm not criticizing anybody's use of it at all, nor do I recommend anybody stop. But it's such a weird thing to call it. What's "the post"? It's the number of votes the other candidate got, I guess? But that's a variable number. How is that a post??? A better post metaphor would be "furthest past the post," maybe...? You're starting at the post. I suppose a way that you could imagine a plurality-wins vote that way is a strictly two-party election where "the post" represents "a majority of voters," and there is a known quantity of voters, and once you get past the "post", you've won (and further voting is inconsequential). But that's different from our system in at least a couple of very significant ways! I'm sure there is some actual historical explanation of it I could look up but it's more fun if I don't actually know. (But if you do know please tell me!)
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Nov 23, 2023 18:23
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I AM GRANDO posted:Did trump ever go back to twitter? If not, I’m amazed that his truth social contract is the first he’s ever actually honored. He's not giving Elon the satisfaction. Supposedly he hated him.
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Nov 23, 2023 18:26
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Misunderstood posted:I realize "First Past the Post" is a standard political science term, so I'm not criticizing anybody's use of it at all, nor do I recommend anybody stop. But it's such a weird thing to call it. The "post" in the context of American presidential elections is the 270 electoral votes required to have a majority.
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Nov 23, 2023 18:27
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It’s extending the race metaphor further. The post is the finish (majority) line. The instant someone crosses it, the race is over and that person becomes the winner.
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Nov 23, 2023 18:31
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Misunderstood posted:Not even just 2016-2020. I don't understand how people go through election after election after election... thinking, no, THIS TIME it's going to be somebody we really like. It's not gonna somebody we all settled on, like the obviously slimy right-of-center governor, or the generic-rear end, uninspiring Vice President, or the Senator famous for being boring, or the nepotism case who had simply been mocked too much over the course of 35 years to be well-liked. I still know people who are happy that Gore didn't win because "He wouldn't have known how to deal with 9/11". People are loving insane. This is coming from at least 3 long time Democrats.
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Nov 23, 2023 18:32
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Main Paineframe posted:Some polls are showing RFK with support as high as 20%, which is unusually high for a third-party candidate. Although we can expect that to shrink quite a bit as campaign season actually gets rolling and people start to take a real look at the candidates. Additionally, we saw how RFK Jr's support and approval dropped the more the media covered him this year.
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Nov 23, 2023 18:37
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Nervous posted:He's not giving Elon the satisfaction. Supposedly he hated him. The biggest reason is simply that Twitter is seen as garbage poo poo for garbage people to use. It has the stink of Loser all over it and Trump knows it. Once Twitter starts turning a profit again and isn't seen as the burning diaper pile that it is, Trump will come back just in time to claim that he's the reason it made a comeback and was profitable again.
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Nov 23, 2023 18:40
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Nervous posted:He's not giving Elon the satisfaction. Supposedly he hated him. It's also probably a tactical choice. Trump knows that he can get an attention boost/news cycle out of returning to Twitter and I'm guessing he's saving that for if/when he needs it.
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Nov 23, 2023 18:58
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the_steve posted:The biggest reason is simply that Twitter is seen as garbage poo poo for garbage people to use. It has the stink of Loser all over it and Trump knows it. So he'd be right at home then 
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Nov 23, 2023 19:01
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the_steve posted:Once Twitter starts turning a profit again in other words, never
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Nov 23, 2023 19:49
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the_steve posted:Once Twitter starts turning a profit again 
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Nov 23, 2023 19:53
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Truth Social's also a money burning pit rn so i give some chance to "holding on to twitter return as a hail mary attention grabber" but also maybe not because guy is pretty as fuuuuck
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Nov 23, 2023 20:03
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TGG posted:I still know people who are happy that Gore didn't win because "He wouldn't have known how to deal with 9/11". People are loving insane. This is coming from at least 3 long time Democrats. Anything the democrats do is the best anyone could have done in a given situation. If you want them to do better you're being unrealistic
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Nov 23, 2023 20:12
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