Cimber posted:

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1732908864931057853

So former Speaker McCarthy said Democrats look like America, Republicans look like a restrictive country club. Funny he's free to say that now that he's announced his quitting.

the_steve posted:

Sounds like he's angling for a pundit gig on CNN/MSNBC, or trying to keep the door open for the possibility at least.

quote:

The USDA worked with 13 privately held insurance companies to provide 1.2 million crop insurance policies at a cost of $17.3 billion in 2022, said the report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO).

From 2011 through 2022, the federal government paid about $36.6 billion to the insurance companies, about a third of the program's total cost of $107.7 billion, the GAO said.

During that time, the companies' underwriting gains, or profits, averaged $1.4 billion annually and their rate of return was nearly 17%, compared with a market rate of around 10%. USDA's target rate of return negotiated with insurers is 14.5%.

Bar Ran Dun posted:

Part of the problem is that both things are happening. Sticker prices are way way up. But sale price isn’t necessarily. Here’s an example.

A cider six pack was 8.99 or 9.99 regularly before the pandemic but was marked 11.99 or 12.99. Now it’s 11.99 to 12.99 regularly but marked 18.99.

Or name brand soda. Before the pandemic list price 5-6 bucks sale 3.50 to 4.50. Now list prices are 10-12 and sales are weird buy two get two or get three free intermittent sales putting sales prices at 4-6 dollars.

This I think is part of what I’d going on with inflation. There is a growing gap between list /day to day shelf prices and the actual normal people sale prices. They are targeting two markets, one price insensitive (regular price) and one price sensitive (sales price).

This always used to happen but it’s exaggerated now. I think because it’s maximized by algorithms. Before it was a general pricing strategy now it’s the done at the optimum maximized revenue point for each store.

That feels insanely lovely to encounter as a shopper.

Kalit posted:

Looks like the GAO has [once again] found that money for crop insurance is being wasted: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-crop-insurance-provides-billions-profit-insurers-govt-agency-2023-12-04/

I doubt this will affect the next farm bill, but here’s to hoping GAO keep coming out with these damning reports and more people start paying attention.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Semi-related, but here is another poll from the Financial Times about specific economic conditions that shows some crazy results.

Most Americans think the unemployment rate (3.9%) is significantly higher than the unemployment rate 30 years ago (7.4%).

They also think essentially every metric of economic progress was better 30 years ago and a ~2/3 majority of Americans answered every single economic fact question incorrectly.

https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1732476001144225881

quote:

The higher-than-expected hourly earnings, flagged by Cameron below, set up an interesting backdrop into next week’s CPI, which may see markets extend today’s moves.

Average hourly earnings picked up to 0.4% in November. This reinforces the Fed’s cautious stance when it comes to inflation. Just when it looked like the economy was finally slowing in the final months of the year, the all-around strong job numbers suggest the economy is still resilient and the inflation risk isn’t gone.

quote:

Bloomberg Analyst Cameron Crise: Well, the major feature of relevance in today’s employment report was the unemployment rate, which came in below every economist estimate at 3.7%. That it came in the context of higher-than-expected participation (62.8%) makes it look extra-strong. That wage growth exceeded expectations at 0.4% on the month makes sense as well.

While there wasn’t much of note in the headline figure, that unemployment number represents a pretty low base for the Fed to render its forecasts upon next week, and reduces the chances of a significant upgrade to 2024 and 2025 unemployment forecasts. Barring a downshift in the inflation forecast or a significant change in the FOMC reaction function, that in turn makes a dot-plot shift validating recent market pricing less likely.

The only caveat is that it was a surge of 747,000 in household employment that drove the fall in the U-rate, and perhaps the FOMC might not find that development either credible or durable. Still, the obvious conclusion is that aggressive rate-cut pricing for next year looks vulnerable.

quote:

Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research says:

“The US labor markets are fine. November’s employment figures were firmer than expected and as a result, bond yields are rising. (People saying recession need to have their heads examined).

“However, in our view, the labor market is not the primary driver for monetary policy right now. Indeed, there is an asymmetry in the Fed’s policy reaction function: stronger employment will not push them away from a cut as much as weaker inflation will push them towards one. The solid economy puts a ceiling on how many cuts we’ll get, but it will not stop cuts altogether. That’s what a recalibration of policy is about.”

quote:

Expectations for rate cuts in 2024 look extra vulnerable to a pullback, when you consider that traders have only stripped out one of the five quarter-point rate cuts they had priced prior to Friday’s jobs data.

There’s plenty of room for more rate-cut expectations to be pared in coming weeks. For Treasuries, that also means more pain to come, with investors likely to trim net-long positions, some of which stand at the highest in about a month.

quote:

The big jump in employment in the household survey last month effectively represented a catch-up to the gains seen in recent months in payrolls.

quote:

Sharif at Inflation Insights has some further takeaways. He sees that huge 747,000 jump in employment in the household survey as reflecting “more people coming in from the sidelines” of the job market.

Powell last week was talking about the bounce-back in the supply of workers being a positive dynamic that has brought job market conditions into better balance.

quote:

The jobs data give the Fed license to stay patient and that message looms next week from Powell for bond traders. But this is a market that has only pulled back March rate cut odds to just under 50% and still looks for 1.14% of easing by the end of 2024.

Deutsche Bank’s Alan Ruskin says:

“The data definitely works with rhetoric that the tightening cycle may not be over, even if this is regarded as unlikely, and that it is premature for officials to be talking about easing. In short, the data extends the likelihood of a longer than usual plateau in rates.”

quote:

As Chris noted earlier, more jobs and wage growth begets more firepower for consumer spending. There are some signs of that in the report: Leisure and hospitality added 40,000 to payrolls in November. Almost all of it was at bars and restaurants, signaling there’s still lots of demand in places for discretionary spending.

Fart Amplifier posted:

More consequences for women due to the Trump presidency

https://twitter.com/BetoORourke/status/1732922619261776225

FlamingLiberal posted:

I don’t think Paxton cares about optics

He’s been pretty openly corrupt forever, and from what I understand, he and his allies have been taking scalps in the legislature over the failed impeachment of him earlier this year

quote:

GOP lawmaker: Ousted aides targeted my daughter for OnlyFans account

A Republican member of Congress is alleging that a former top aide spearheaded a “vindictive” threat to expose his daughter’s OnlyFans account.

Rep. Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.) told POLITICO that his former chief of staff and former legislative director attempted to retaliate against him using his 27-year old daughter’s account on OnlyFans, a popular forum for people to charge for access to sexually explicit content.

According to Williams, the two former staffers, Michael Gordon and Ryan Sweeney, threatened to expose his daughter after Williams fired them.

Williams’ remarkable decision to go public about the feud is a bet that his political future will be improved by laying out its highly personal details. He spoke with POLITICO days after a Syracuse University student journalist shared a video of him in a profanity-laced confrontation with Gordon outside a holiday party in Washington.

Gordon was “trying to exert some leverage over me,” Williams said, “and I just simply won’t allow that to happen.”

Williams, a first-term member in a battleground seat, won his race year by one percentage point. He is one of House Democrats’ top targets to unseat in 2024.

Gordon said that “the allegations Congressman Williams has levied against me are categorically false” and declined to comment further. Sweeney said the “congressman’s allegations are completely false.”

The confrontation with Gordon, which Sweeney filmed, began causing political trouble for Williams soon after its release last week. On the day before indicted former Rep. George Santos was expelled from Congress for a litany of alleged criminal misdeeds — a move that Williams and other New York Republicans led the charge for — Santos called for a House Ethics Committee investigation of Williams because of his behavior in the video.

Williams is seen confronting Gordon outside the party, pointing his finger at Gordon and vowing that if “you f–k with my family, I’ll end every relationship you have.” In response to that on-camera threat, Gordon denied any knowledge of the unspecified allegations at issue.

Williams said that the clash stemmed from a pressure campaign that began after his decision to give Gordon 30 days to find new employment. The ousted aide responded by contacting a GOP campaign consultant close to the lawmaker.

That consultant, Aaron Evans, told POLITICO he went to Williams in recent weeks to relay Gordon’s warning: Before going through with the firing, Gordon said, the lawmaker should think about the potential embarrassment his family would experience if TMZ found out about his daughter’s OnlyFans account.

POLITICO is not publishing the name of Williams’ daughter to protect her privacy.

Williams said in the interview that, a few days prior to that altercation, other aides of his told him that Gordon had shared details of the OnlyFans account widely with other congressional staffers. Gordon was also “saying really rude things about [Williams’] wife,” the lawmaker recalled.

Gordon lived in Williams’ home during part of the latter’s campaign, the lawmaker recalled. But their relationship began unraveling over the course of their months living together and as they worked more closely together in D.C., according to Williams, who described his former chief of staff as “a deeply broken person.”

Williams declined to comment on the specifics behind the dismissals of Gordon and Sweeney. A person with direct knowledge of the personnel matter, granted anonymity to discuss internal office dynamics, said that Sweeney was fired for reasons related to job performance.

After Sweeney recorded the lawmaker during their argument outside the holiday party, Williams said the former aide delivered a personal jab at the lawmaker: “Hey, f–k you! Guess what, bitch? All I have to do is pay $7 to watch your daughter shove her phone up her p—y!”

One eyewitness of the skirmish, however, could not confirm that version of events and recalled seeing Williams leave the area right after knocking Sweeney’s phone out of his hands. This eyewitness, granted anonymity to share recollections of the tense moment, added that the scene was loud and crowded so a comment might have been missed.

Williams’ critics have noted that he has faced multiple staff departures beyond Gordon and Sweeney since taking office. According to the nonpartisan website Legistorm found that he has had three times more turnover than the average House member.

Williams argued that he reshaped his office culture after settling into Congress, removing hires that Gordon had initially made, and said he’s now surrounded by a team he is proud of.

quote:

The Brightline West High-Speed Intercity Passenger Rail System Project will receive up to $3 billion for a new 218-mile intercity passenger rail system between Las Vegas, Nevada, and Rancho Cucamonga, California. The project will create a new high-speed rail system, resulting in trip times of just over 2 hours – nearly twice as fast as driving. This route is expected to serve more than 11 million passengers annually, taking millions of cars off the road and, thanks to all-electric train sets, removing an estimated 400,000 tons of carbon dioxide per year. This project will create 35,000 jobs supporting construction and support 1,000 permanent jobs in operations and maintenance once in service. Brightline’s agreement with the California State and Southern Nevada Building Trades will ensure that this project is built with good-paying union labor, and the project has reached a separate agreement with Rail Labor to employ union workers for its ongoing operations and maintenance. The project will also allow for connections to the Los Angeles Metro area via the Metrolink commuter rail system.

quote:

The California Inaugural High-Speed Rail Service Project will receive up to $3.07 billion to help deliver high-speed rail service in California’s Central Valley by designing and extending the rail line between Bakersfield and Merced, procuring new high-speed trainsets, and constructing the Fresno station, which will connect communities to urban centers in Northern and Southern California. This 171-mile rail corridor will support high-speed travel with speeds up to 220mph. The project will improve connectivity and increase travel options, along with providing more frequent passenger rail service, from the Central Valley to urban centers in northern and Southern California. New all-electric trainsets will produce zero emissions and be powered by 100% renewable energy. By separating passenger and freight lines, this project will benefit freight rail operations throughout California as well. This project has already created over 11,000 good-paying union construction jobs and has committed to using union labor for operations and maintenance.

quote:

The Raleigh to Richmond (R2R) Innovating Rail Program Phases IA and II project will receive up to $1.1 billion to build approximately additional parts of the Southeast Corridor from Raleigh to Wake Forest, North Carolina, including new and upgraded track, eleven grade separations and closure of multiple at-grade crossings. The investment will improve system and service performance by developing a resilient and reliable passenger rail route that will also contribute to freight and supply chain resiliency in the southeastern U.S. The proposed project is part of a multi-phased effort to develop a new passenger rail route between Raleigh, North Carolina, and Richmond, Virginia, and better connect the southern states to DC and the Northeast Corridor. Once completed, this new route will save passengers an estimated 90 minutes per trip.

quote:

The Long Bridge project, part of the Transforming Rail in Virginia – Phase II program, will receive $729 million to construct a new two-track rail bridge over the Potomac River to expand passenger rail capacity between Washington, D.C. and Richmond, VA. Nearly 6 million passengers travel over the existing bridge every year on Amtrak and Virginia Railway Express lines. This upgrade will reduce congestion and delays on this heavily-traveled corridor to our nation’s capital.

quote:

Scranton to New York, reviving a dormant rail corridor between Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York, to provide up to three daily trips for commuters and other passengers;

Colorado Front Range, a new rail corridor connecting Fort Collins, CO, and Pueblo, CO, to serve an area that currently has no passenger rail options;

The Northern Lights Express, connecting Minneapolis, MN and Duluth, MN, with several stops in Wisconsin, for greater regional connectivity;

Cascadia High-Speed Rail, a proposed new high-speed rail corridor linking Oregon, Washington, and Vancouver, with entirely new service;

Charlotte to Atlanta, a new high-speed rail corridor linking the Southeast and providing connection to Hartsfield-Jackson Airport, the busiest airport in the world;

FlamingLiberal posted:

I don’t think Paxton cares about optics

He’s been pretty openly corrupt forever, and from what I understand, he and his allies have been taking scalps in the legislature over the failed impeachment of him earlier this year

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Misunderstood posted:

I hope it occurs to somebody at the White House to upload a map where I can actually read the legend!

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

He's been under federal indictment for the past eight years. I believe it's set for trial next February.

Just a pure sociopath who would never be allowed to practice law at all in a country with a justice system.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The new railways that will be started from scratch:

lobster shirt posted:

disappointed they arent kicking any money to the houston-dallas project (unless i missed it)

quote:

Amtrak is working with private developer Texas Central Partners to revive construction of a high-speed passenger train that would travel the 236 miles between Houston and Dallas in 90 minutes. However, funding for the stalled $30-billion project is unclear, as is its future. Neither Amtrak nor Texas Central have a timeline for construction.

Last week, Texas Central officials said Amtrak is working with the company to apply for federal funds to “conduct advance planning and analysis work” intended to further determine project viability, Amtrak said in a statement.

Acording to their statement, applications are already in for further studies and design work, under the Consolidated Rail Infrastructure Safety and Improvements grant program, the Corridor Identification and Development program and the Federal-State Partnership for Intercity Passenger Rail grant program.

The high-speed rail project was announced over a decade ago as a private venture, without government funding. Leadership issues, lawsuits and other legal matters, including land rights, delayed the project, initially set for 2020 completion, and drove its estimated cost from $12 billion to more than $30 billion.

Allen Rutter, a senior research scientist at Texas A&M Transportation Institute, thinks the agreement is a way for Amtrak to have a larger footprint in Texas.

The carrier also has submitted grant applications for federal funds for its daily Sunset Limited service and the extension of the Crescent from Mississippi through Louisiana and Texas. Amtrak also supports Kansas DOT’s Heartland Flyer Extension Corridor Identification and Development (Corridor ID) application that will connect Wichita and communities across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas to the Amtrak network.

The railroad says it also supports Texas Dept. of Transportation’s applications for the Texas Triangle (Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio) routes.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Nope, nothing for Dallas-Houston high-speed rail in this chunk of money.

Apparently, the issue is that it will cost at least $30 billion to finish and the Texas state government and private partner who were working with Amtrak are both dragging their feet on putting up their share of the money. The state government has become hostile to the idea of funding it and the private company was hit with a barrage of lawsuits, problems acquiring land to build tracks, and constant hiring/firing of people to run the project, so they stopped putting additional money into it.

Amtrak is trying to revive the project and getting federal funding to finish studies, but it was originally a fully private project and Amtrak doesn't want to just hand money over to the company after the costs expanded from $12 billion to $30 billion unless Texas and the company front their share and commit to finishing it.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

I found a slightly higher quality image and edited it into the OP. I'm not sure why they used a 500x800 pixel image for the official press release.

Shooting Blanks posted:

IIRC the private Texas rail between Houston and Dallas has been stuck in legal limbo for the last couple years untangling eminent domain. There are a lot of ranchers and farmers that absolutely do not want their property split.

Sundae posted:

Hi guys, I'm a time traveler from the year 2045 and I wanted to let you all know that the California rail projects are almost ready to start hearings with county and local town governance. There's a lot of concern about neighborhood character and increased traffic, and...

*time traveler from 2065 appears out of nowhere* Hi guys, I wanted to let you all know that the California rail projects are almost ready to start hearings with county...

Misunderstood posted:

I wonder if there's any way they can get that Las Vegas train closer to LA than Rancho Cucamonga? It seems like every bit further you could pull that towards the city center would result in more replaced car trips, but I'm sure the right of way costs get absolutely insane once you're west of RC.

Kalit posted:

I feel like Biden would start building the rail tracks himself by this point. He'll become the oldest person alive, fueled solely by his anger of more train routes not being built yet.

Sundae posted:

Hi guys, I'm a time traveler from the year 2045 and I wanted to let you all know that the California rail projects are almost ready to start hearings with county and local town governance. There's a lot of concern about neighborhood character and increased traffic, and...

*time traveler from 2065 appears out of nowhere* Hi guys, I wanted to let you all know that the California rail projects are almost ready to start hearings with county...

The Glumslinger posted:

There is already a Metrolink rail line from Union Station (main hub of the LA's transit system) to Rancho Cucamonga, but it would be nice to get that upgraded. But I'm sure LA would rather spend that money on building new subway lines

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

I found a slightly higher quality image and edited it into the OP. I'm not sure why they used a 500x800 pixel image for the official press release.

Sundae posted:

Hi guys, I'm a time traveler from the year 2045 and I wanted to let you all know that the California rail projects are almost ready to start hearings with county and local town governance. There's a lot of concern about neighborhood character and increased traffic, and...

*time traveler from 2065 appears out of nowhere* Hi guys, I wanted to let you all know that the California rail projects are almost ready to start hearings with county...

Bodyholes posted:

Most of the NIMBY boomers should be dead by then. I expect such rail projects to accelerate as their political interference declines.

Assuming of course elections are still a thing...

Bwee posted:

Eminent domain all the farmers in Texas and build a train meganetwork

Sundae posted:

Hi guys, I'm a time traveler from the year 2045 and I wanted to let you all know that the California rail projects are almost ready to start hearings with county and local town governance. There's a lot of concern about neighborhood character and increased traffic, and...

*time traveler from 2065 appears out of nowhere* Hi guys, I wanted to let you all know that the California rail projects are almost ready to start hearings with county...