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Hannibal Rex posted:https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/92132 They've been attacking storage too, so we'll see. Its not like Russia logistics is having issues already......oh wait.....
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Apr 5, 2024 13:58
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madeintaipei posted:The only thing that has threatened to actually paralyze public life in Vietnam during the last 100 years is the abject failure of the post-1975 communist regime to account for the transition of pho stands/carts/trucks in the south of the country from a capitalist method of procurement to a socialist one. Pho-ked up if true.
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Apr 5, 2024 14:15
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CommieGIR posted:They've been attacking storage too, so we'll see. Its not like Russia logistics is having issues already......oh wait..... Distant processing & storage: increased delivery times, increased wear and tear on infrastructure, more need for replacement components for everything from tyres to refinery catalysts... it all adds up in the end.
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Apr 5, 2024 14:37
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spankmeister posted:So they'll have enough for their domestic and military needs, but what about exports? If they are unable to generate revenue from their refineries anymore it'll be a massive economic blow. Carnegie is no Russian mouthpiece as far as I'm aware, but I'm skeptical toward the apparent "no meaningful impact" argument unless I see something that spells out the reasoning better.
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Apr 5, 2024 15:49
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You see, if your state owned oil company sells oil to the military, it's technically free and doesn't cost the government anything 
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Apr 5, 2024 15:59
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IIRC, Russia doesn't export a lot of refined products to begin with - most of their exports are crude and gas.
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Apr 5, 2024 17:11
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psydude posted:IIRC, Russia doesn't export a lot of refined products to begin with - most of their exports are crude and gas. They don't anymore, but used to export quite a lot of diesel, iirc.
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Apr 5, 2024 17:20
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psydude posted:IIRC, Russia doesn't export a lot of refined products to begin with - most of their exports are crude and gas. By volume about a third or a quarter of exports are refined petroleum products, but those are worth more money per barrel
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Apr 5, 2024 18:09
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psydude posted:IIRC, Russia doesn't export a lot of refined products to begin with - most of their exports are crude and gas.
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Apr 5, 2024 18:20
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Cugel the Clever posted:This. The article handwaves away in one sentence the idea that this will impact exports and further put pressure on an increasingly strained Russian economy, but that's at the very least not intuitive. A struck refinery eventually comes back online, sure, but at what new capacity? How long do repairs typically take to lift output back up? How sustainable is it to continue repairing and defending the sites if strikes keep getting through? Here you go. It hurts the industry quite a bit, but not so much state taxes. Sure, there may be various knock-on effects down the line, but the campaign isn't something we should expect to have much near-term impact. https://twitter.com/SergeyVakulenk0/status/1776242755926102164?t=sUFZ9xrox4Y7mklnlExeTA&s=19
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Apr 5, 2024 18:27
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IMO it's all about a theory of victory that's about bringing forward the point at which the Russian state can keep Moscow and St Petersburg insulated from the consequences of the war as far as possible.
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Apr 5, 2024 18:46
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:Refined petroleum (seaborne oil products) accounts for more than half of total oil export revenue and nearly a third of all fossil fuel export revenue. Its share of total revenue has increased as pipeline crude and natural gas revenues have fallen. Well color me completely wrong. Makes the refineries don't matter argument even more nonsensical.
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Apr 5, 2024 18:55
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psydude posted:Well color me completely wrong. Makes the refineries don't matter argument even more nonsensical. Even just driving up domestic fuel costs is a huge deal since per my understanding, fuel costs is one of the biggest inflationary drivers. Sure maybe it doesn't hit state revenue directly, but 30% inflation can really mess some stuff up. Everything the state needs to make war go gets more and more expensive, people lower spending domestically, pensioners on fixed incomes get hosed, and that usually causes the state to have to raise benefits, then they need more money to do that, and one and on it goes.
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Apr 5, 2024 19:24
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https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30629 Big wave of Ukrainian drone attacks on various Russian sites. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30642 quote:According to Tatar political commentators Tuesday’s strike the population “is scared and shocked by the fact that… the war came to them, [so far] from the front line.” One can only imagine it would be an even greater trauma in Murmansk. Imagine me playing the world's tiniest violin for these fuckheads who're realizing that their unbridled supporting and cheerleading the local fascist emperor is actually gonna have consequences for them.
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Apr 5, 2024 20:23
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It's that. Russians suddenly feel like the war is right at home. Everytime they hear the sound of a drone they feel fear. The State shows it is weak every time a new factory of refinery explodes.
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Apr 5, 2024 20:24
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PurpleXVI posted:https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30629 Ah so that's why TASS was whining about the Ukrainians attacking ZNPP with drones.
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Apr 5, 2024 20:26
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https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1776355710835601781quote:Kherson Oblast, a Ukrainian Backfire K1 fixed wing bomber drone from the Angry Birds unit drops a pair of bomblets on a Russian Pantsir-S1, scoring a hit and setting fire to the SAM system. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1776355717802233872 quote:Seen here, the loading, launch, strike, and recovery of a Backfire. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1776355715994505502 quote:The Backfire is a fairly capable strike platform, sporting a range of up to 55 km at 84 km/h. I love some of these creative tech solutions the Ukrainians are using. It just looks like a toy at first glance but it's clearly enough to wreck some Russian AA or probably ruin a squad's day.
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Apr 5, 2024 22:22
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I'd be awfully curious what the overall efficacy of a reusable like that is over an equivalent single-shot. Given reports of how non-permissive the environment is from an electronic warfare perspective, I'd have to imagine the latter wins out.
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Apr 5, 2024 22:37
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Cugel the Clever posted:I'd be awfully curious what the overall efficacy of a reusable like that is over an equivalent single-shot. Given reports of how non-permissive the environment is from an electronic warfare perspective, I'd have to imagine the latter wins out. Same, but no reason you couldn't do "strike these GPS coordinates and then return" autonomously.
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Apr 5, 2024 22:53
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tiaz posted:Same, but no reason you couldn't do "strike these GPS coordinates and then return" autonomously. Well, except for the whole electronic-warfare-denying-GNSS-frequencies bit, sure. Would need a pretty good INS/IRS system to hit a waypoint without GPS.
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Apr 5, 2024 23:05
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Not to mention, for instance, that's a self-propelled SAM they blew up there. "Drop on these coordinates" is only as good as your coordinates. For a mobile target I would guess it's something like "it's around this location, then you need to find it with your sensors". E: but also, lol, "what air defence doing?". I'd love to know what altitude that attack was from (presumably pretty low for unguided munitions) and why that Pantsir didn't engage the drone itself. Apparently they've got guns as secondary armament. Then again, we don't see all the footage of drone attacks on air defences that do get shot down 
Hyperlynx fucked around with this message at 23:16 on Apr 5, 2024 |
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Apr 5, 2024 23:13
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Granted, but both of those objections also apply to the one-way-trip devices.
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Apr 6, 2024 00:33
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Pantsir? More like Pantsed'ir 
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Apr 6, 2024 01:16
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bennyfactor posted:Well, except for the whole electronic-warfare-denying-GNSS-frequencies bit, sure. Would need a pretty good INS/IRS system to hit a waypoint without GPS. Absolutely guarantee the final drop is man controlled, not automated.
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Apr 6, 2024 01:31
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tiaz posted:Granted, but both of those objections also apply to the one-way-trip devices. The weird thing to me is that in the videos, no one seems to be aware of the aerial drones at all. At the height and speed this one seems to be flying at, a couple guys in a blind could do reasonable damage to it with birdshot. I don't know, just with all of the explosions in Russia, you'd think that the air defense system worth hundreds of millions of dollars and specifically built to intercept threats with tiny radar cross-sections would be on
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Apr 6, 2024 01:32
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Twas a decoy, methinks
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Apr 6, 2024 01:37
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The air defence system couldn't turn on because someone sold the motherboard for yacht fuel.
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Apr 6, 2024 03:26
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Kazinsal posted:The air defence system couldn't turn on because someone sold the motherboard for yacht fuel. Which they then drank
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Apr 6, 2024 03:41
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GPS jammers have to be putting out a lot of energy to have any range right? Could you make a drone follow that back in a HARM-esque way?
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Apr 6, 2024 04:07
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Yeah there is nothing preventing homing on a signal like that but it's not trivial to build the signal tracking and localization apparatus.
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Apr 6, 2024 04:29
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The Door Frame posted:The weird thing to me is that in the videos, no one seems to be aware of the aerial drones at all. At the height and speed this one seems to be flying at, a couple guys in a blind could do reasonable damage to it with birdshot. I don't know, just with all of the explosions in Russia, you'd think that the air defense system worth hundreds of millions of dollars and specifically built to intercept threats with tiny radar cross-sections would be on These are way higher than birdshot range most often, and humans struggle to observe small flying objects. Humans in AD need to be vigilant and proactive, even with good radars.
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Apr 6, 2024 04:58
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Xenoborg posted:GPS jammers have to be putting out a lot of energy to have any range right? Could you make a drone follow that back in a HARM-esque way? The real GPS signals are pretty weak, which is why it's sometimes hard to get a lock in a street full of skyscrapers or inside an airplane. But a "make it impossible to hear GPS" jammer does have to be stronger than the legitimate GPS so you can probably do that homing in its effective area. I'm not an EW guy though, and there's a lot of wild stuff that happens in that arena. Off the top of my head you could maybe have smarter jammers injecting legitimate-seeming but incorrect GPS frames rather than attempting to make the signal unreadable, which might prevent a receiver from getting a real location and since it isn't continuous and looks like normal GPS would be harder to home in on.
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Apr 6, 2024 05:11
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It's not a single honking antenna, a deployed Russian GPS jammer posted earlier did have up to 100 antennas, controlled via cell data. INAEE but there's some correlation between the number of antennas you have and the number of sources you can filter out, good luck fitting 100+1 antennas on your (must be cheap) drone. Also I suspect Controlled Reception Pattern Antennas (CRPA, seems to be the search term) do filter imperfectly. Also you can probably be targeting multiple links in the GPS RF chain at the same time with so many emitters: have some try to drown out the signal by saturating the analog amplifiers, some try to gently caress up the frame sync, others attack the higher level position algorithms with slowly drifting errors and so on. GPS signal is so weak you probably don't need much more than a few Watts to be in the game. The price comparison of 100x HARM vs 100x (arduino + cell modem + GPS screecher) is likely not in favor of the HARMs. Of course there's a whole century of radio navigation history to pull ideas from. Some of them are even ~tactical~ and 60s leading edge RF is probably a $120 bill at DigiKey, today.
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Apr 6, 2024 05:32
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Figure out where the jammers are then use them to determine your position.
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Apr 6, 2024 06:28
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Dandywalken posted:Twas a decoy, methinks Plausible, but at the same time we've seen plenty of seemingly unaware Russian AA systems getting blasted by drones in the past, so I don't see a reason to be super doubtful. The Door Frame posted:The weird thing to me is that in the videos, no one seems to be aware of the aerial drones at all. At the height and speed this one seems to be flying at, a couple guys in a blind could do reasonable damage to it with birdshot. I don't know, just with all of the explosions in Russia, you'd think that the air defense system worth hundreds of millions of dollars and specifically built to intercept threats with tiny radar cross-sections would be on If the crew's buttoned up inside the Pantsir, they might not be able to hear or see the drone normally. And if they're assuming that the Ukrainians might home in on radar sources with HARMs or equivalent munitions, they probably don't flick on their radars until they get a message from home that they need to stay aware because there are targets in the area. There are also fixed-wing drones from both sides coming and going, and since this one was just "passing over" rather than diving right for them, so until the bombs dropped they might well have assumed it was a friendly drone making a pass.
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Apr 6, 2024 09:56
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you say this and yet they seem to have no problem shooting down their own aircraft 
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Apr 6, 2024 10:03
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Lot of lessons being learned in this war. Meanwhile Russia's neighborhood is tooling up https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/norway-plans-56-billion-boost-defence-spending-over-12-years-2024-04-05/
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Apr 6, 2024 11:50
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psydude posted:Well color me completely wrong. Makes the refineries don't matter argument even more nonsensical. It hasn't made much of a dent in exports yet. This tweet illustrates nicely the capacities of the refineries. The one in Kirishi, near St. Petersburg must be a priority for both Russia and Ukraine. https://twitter.com/DevanaUkraine/status/1771656161093103994/photo/1
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Apr 6, 2024 13:15
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karoshi posted:
Russia has some big Jammers put out a lot power. Since GPS is so weak the big jammer can be very far away and still be sufficient.
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Apr 6, 2024 13:19
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Jasper Tin Neck posted:It hasn't made much of a dent in exports yet. That graphic is great for a lot of reasons. You could easily use it in a slide deck to help explain why Hitler started WWII and why he went to war with Russia when they had a peace treaty.
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Apr 6, 2024 13:55
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