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One good sign (thank the fed) is that markets are behaving 'as expected' today --- stocks down, but bonds including treasuries are up.
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Mar 16, 2020 20:51
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Cramer on Mad Money advocating for closing the markets for a while
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Mar 16, 2020 23:57
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https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3912152&perpage=40&pagenumber=1306#post503359484 horrifying study out of the U.K. on COVID measures needed that explains some recent USGOV actions
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Mar 17, 2020 00:32
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futures headed toward limit up very normal market
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Mar 17, 2020 02:03
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I can't wait until, years later, someone actually shows why/how markets were so hosed up to alternate between limit up and down for days in a row. There has to be more to this than 'actual investors buying the dip'. Something systemically wrong with how the markets are made.
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Mar 17, 2020 02:30
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Trump admin floating $850b fiscal stimulus package
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Mar 17, 2020 14:10
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Hit Man posted:CLX is going nuts. Throw some CPB in there too. What would comprise 'home service' stocks?
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Mar 17, 2020 15:47
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it's mesmerizing just watching SPY slowly melt up on low volume
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Mar 17, 2020 16:16
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What's left to be announced for economic recovery? So far, we have: - coronavirus emergency package with testing, SBA lending, etc. - $850b bailout package: cash to people (and companies) - fed QE - fed 0% - fed buying commercial paper - fed repo increases - fed swaps w/ foreign banks - hospitals gearing up - tax filing extensions - student loan interest waived - boeing bailout floated - airline bailouts floated - hotel bailouts floated - cruise bailots floated - casino bailouts discussed by admin (via twitter mostly) What else can be added to that list to help the fiscal situation other than just 'more money' to something already on the list? Nationalizing poo poo obama-style as it goes bankrupt?
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Mar 17, 2020 19:43
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fougera posted:European system completely collapses. I was looking for recovery actions, not collapse 
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Mar 17, 2020 19:54
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nelson posted:Here’s a good lesson in options trading courtesy of wsb. that's incredible, hahaha
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Mar 17, 2020 21:15
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Can you guys contribute ideas for stocks that should be in a Dystopian ETF? Stocks that would be included should have some of the following 5 qualities (list subject to editing!): (a) have the potential to benefit from destruction of traditional american dreams (e.g. cities with community-driven small businesses! personal home ownership!) (b) be able to exploit economic crashes in a way that small businesses or individuals cannot (e.g. local businesses lose foot traffic in a pandemic, but delivery from warehouses goes up, or, certain classes of businesses can directly sell bonds to the Fed, but individuals cannot) (c) have the capacity to become "too big to fail" (e.g. Boeing is essentially part of DOD) and therefore be free from "moral hazard" in economic decisions on risk management (d) be able and willing to serve as a controlling aspect in a surveillance-based dictatorship (e.g. track movement or communications and not have a strong privacy policy) (e) You could imagine some other reason for this company being an integral part of a dystopian novel (please explain so I can edit list). I'll start: Amazon Boeing American Homes 4 Rent Invitation Homes Baidu Goldman Sachs JPMorganChase Who else? I seriously want to make this list and will post updates later in thread. edit: adding Walmart, Comcast, Exxon, Chevron, BlackRock pmchem fucked around with this message at 23:36 on Mar 17, 2020 |
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Mar 17, 2020 23:12
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The fed is now buying stocks: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-reopens-crisis-era-primary-dealer-credit-facility-223202781.html "The Fed will also take on equities, although exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, and unit investment trusts are not covered."
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Mar 17, 2020 23:38
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Agronox posted:Nope. Lending against, which is a big difference. They’re prohibited by law from buying equities IIRC. Man, I don't know, I don't see much of a functional difference. They're buying it with a promise to sell it back at some date TBD. In the meantime the bank gets a potentially lovely asset off its books and can get it back later when its value has returned. edit: also, who determines the collateral value of a possibly soon-to-be backrupt stock like CZR? why should that secure a loan at today's closing value? pmchem fucked around with this message at 23:55 on Mar 17, 2020 |
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Mar 17, 2020 23:46
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FreelanceSocialist posted:
SCI will make the list, awesome, thanks. leper khan posted:Any publicly traded real estate companies that primarily deal with mobile home lots? I don't know -- find me one!
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Mar 17, 2020 23:48
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Agronox posted:No that’s not how it works—you might be thinking of a repo agreement. Ok, so if Goldman asks for a loan against $100MM of CZR, and the Fed gives them $30MM, then CZR goes bankrupt and Goldman declines to repay the loan, what happens? Is the Fed going to cut Goldman off? Pursue them in court? Or did they just get $30MM for free?
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Mar 18, 2020 00:03
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Also, https://twitter.com/SalehaMohsin/status/1240045093958057985?s=20  edit: ok that was the non-action number. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-17/mnuchin-warns-virus-could-yield-20-jobless-rate-without-action-k7wheob8 pmchem fucked around with this message at 00:16 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 00:10
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I'm not suggesting that Goldman is bankrupt in that scenario.
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Mar 18, 2020 00:19
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doingitwrong posted:Don’t have the encyclopedic knowledge to rattle off tickers but you’re gonna want: I love the private security suggestion, anyone know of publicly listed private security stocks?
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Mar 18, 2020 01:27
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let's end stock buybacks forever, they helped get us into this mess and are generally bad for the long-term economy: https://hbr.org/2020/01/why-stock-buybacks-are-dangerous-for-the-economy https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/have-stock-buybacks-gone-too-far/ https://inequality.org/research/stock-buybacks-finance-end/ https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2018/12/share-buybacks-and-the-contradictions-of-shareholder-capitalism/ tl;dr -- stock buybacks cripple corporate competitiveness and balance sheets in order to boost executive compensation in a way that generally avoids taxes as compared to, say, dividends that reward long-term investors stock trading relevance: next time there's a huge run-up in buybacks, get ready to sell or buy puts on those stocks
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Mar 18, 2020 12:52
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saintonan posted:WTI down 15% today, jesus. yeah, looking at that, I'm wondering to myself when Saudi and Russia manage to set aside their differences. This is lower than they intended.
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Mar 18, 2020 16:37
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The Dystopian ETF now includes: Amazon Boeing American Homes 4 Rent Invitation Homes Baidu Goldman Sachs JPMorganChase Walmart Comcast Exxon Chevron BlackRock Service Corp International (funerals) Sun Communities (trailer park REIT) Equity LifeStyle Properties (trailer park REIT) I couldn't find a popular private security company listed on a US exchange, but, maybe I missed some OTC stock? Anyone know of a private security stock? What other companies should be included in a hellworld dystopian nightmare portfolio?
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Mar 18, 2020 18:54
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:CXW and GEO private prisons? good call, will add
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Mar 18, 2020 19:03
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FreelanceSocialist posted:When you say "private security" you're not talking about ADT, I am guessing. The "private security" you're picturing doesn't do well under publicly-traded scrutiny. The closest thing might be KBR or Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH). yeah, I am meaning like, hired guns for personal or company physical security. Dudes protecting rich people, not gadgets or alarms. edit: also I think gas mask manufacturers are on the little guy's side!
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Mar 18, 2020 19:06
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FreelanceSocialist posted:Yeah - those types of companies don't like transparency. I think for domestic "daylight" operations that KBR and BAH would step up. They already do a bit of it. I've seen KBR goons rolling alongside Fed Protective Services locally. KBR it is! Private military, security, AND oil and gas!
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Mar 18, 2020 19:17
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you know, if a lot of the liquidity-related crashing in days like today is due to deleveraging, maybe there should be tighter regulations/rules on leverage?
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Mar 18, 2020 19:28
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dougdrums posted:I bought 10 spy at 229 and a nickel. Any lower and I'll be shooting raiders over my stock of cat food anyways. reddit is claiming there will be a huge short squeeze Friday before close with 211m shares of SPY having to be purchased due to expiring options, and SPY going to the moon as a result. how much of that is pure bullshit vs. possibly real, legit analysis? edit: example, 
pmchem fucked around with this message at 20:21 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 20:19
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shame on an IGA posted:GFSZS, SCTBF I don't know how to trade those or even really look them up, they're some kind of foreign OTC that yahoo finance barfs on with no volume. Same with thinkorswim. But I appreciate the effort for finding priv. security tickers.
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Mar 18, 2020 21:40
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lol, just lol, what timing SBUX https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...vent-2020-03-18 stock buybacks
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Mar 18, 2020 21:48
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Wifi Toilet posted:Grabbed a bunch of Boeing at $98. Remember uh, what happened to GM shareholders in 2008? That may be the Boeing bailout. Do we think it just gets a loan?
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Mar 19, 2020 00:55
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 https://brrr.money/ also, if we assume that more than half the options on the S&P are put options, how does this affect Friday's open? https://www.wsj.com/articles/harrie...e_copyURL_share
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Mar 19, 2020 12:52
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I have a theory that SPY will be mostly flat today and open just above 240 tomorrow. The reason for this is that huge options day tomorrow as per WSJ link earlier. There must be a massive number of SPY puts at the 240 mark to be resolved tomorrow. The people who wrote those puts need SPY to stay above 240 for just one more day or they take a bath. But, if the primary market makers hedged via shorting SPY, they need to buy SPY tomorrow anyway -- which would suggest they wouldn't mind a lower price? How does this work if there are WAY more puts than calls at the SPY 240 level to be resolved tomorrow, and puts were hedged via shorts? What pressure does it put on SPY itself throughout tomorrow?
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Mar 19, 2020 16:26
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Josh Lyman posted:Open interest on SPY 240 puts that expire tomorrow is 43,568. In general, for a 5% move from the current SPY price, there are way more OTM puts than OTM calls, but it's possible the put writers would simply hedge themselves with futures. This is great, thank you for the data. If they hedge with futures or have already hedged via shorts (when they wrote the puts), what does that do to SPY price tomorrow? I'm trying to learn all this. Still new to thinking about options in any serious detail.
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Mar 19, 2020 16:47
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algos dive when FDA guy mentions "gold standard"
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Mar 19, 2020 16:59
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nice little melt up to get the 240/245 puts OTM before tomorrow Big red day after those options expire?
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Mar 19, 2020 19:50
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pmchem posted:I have a theory that SPY will be mostly flat today and open just above 240 tomorrow. SPY closes at 240.55, my assholes-manip theory holds true so far but I'm too unversed in shorts to understand what will happen at market open tomorrow 
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Mar 19, 2020 21:16
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java posted:A sign I need to buy my SPY tomorrow. Man, no poo poo. Want to spook the markets? Concealing economic data Soviet-style should do the trick.
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Mar 20, 2020 02:10
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Doccykins posted:I'd say today volatility anywhere will be more down to quadruple witching (day/week/month/quarter options all expiring) rather than any news. Staying well out until it all gets washed out, anything April/May is incredibly expensive right now http://www.opricot.com/ticker/spy/optiongraphs suggests huge upward pressure today for put writers to cover? but when do all the puts expire? I read something about monthlies being resolved at open, but I thought all options were resolved at end of day?
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Mar 20, 2020 12:58
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https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1240987869709250560 https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1240989723784593415
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Mar 20, 2020 14:45
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Josh Lyman posted:I feel... better about the market at the moment? Which seems like we're probably just prepping for another leg lower once the jobless claims start coming in next week. It just seems ludicrous for SPY to be trading above its Dec. 21, 2018 close. Everything about the US economy is order of magnitudes worse than it was 15 months ago.
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Mar 20, 2020 15:46
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