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Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.
As an armchair aviation enthusiast, I've learned there's lots of reasons other than midair breakup that could cause a plane to crash without a distress call, but they are very unlikely.

So, looks like midair breakup, and those are usually caused by either a horrendous maintenance oversight (like the elevator falling off), or by missiles/bombs.

Those poor Chinamen and Mugatu employees.

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Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

Rad Russian posted:

Do pilots not receive any "instruments are down" training at all? At least reading all the wiki articles makes it seems like they start behaving like a 3 year old playing with legos as soon as something breaks.

I believe airplanes have become too big and too complex for a human to feel confident in their ability to fly the aircraft in situations where spatial disorientation is a factor.

They rely heavily on their instruments in low visibility, high altitude situations, and when one breaks they begin to lose confident in everything and lose their poo poo.

Also, Airbus planes have increased levels of automation, while Boeing planes still keep humans much more in the loop. Different design philosophy, but I think all this automation training can overwhelm pilots to the point where they don't remember what to do when the automation fails. In the case of Air France 447, I think they figured it was impossible to stall the plane so the instruments must be wrong. They didn't receive training on the change of automation state that the plane goes through when when the airspeed indicator goes haywire - all of the automation that is supposed to prevent the plane from stalling shutoff after the pitot tubes were blocked.

Rick Rickshaw fucked around with this message at 19:09 on Mar 13, 2014

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

Awesome! posted:

We hear all about how modern planes have layers and layers of redundancies for safety systems but it seems like this pitot tube thing failing basically bypasses everything since it's a support system common to lots of the avionics. Isn't that dumb? Is there literally no better or more redundant way to accomplish what this pitot tube does?

I believe the only other option is GPS, but that will only provide speed relative to ground, not true airspeed - the speed at which the air moves over the wings, which is much more important and is different in cases of wind.

And that is most of the time, especially in storms...when you really need accurate readings from your instruments because you can't see what's going on outside the loving windshield.

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

Lolie posted:

Malaysia can't even start a press conference on time.

No "crisis briefing" news conference has ever started on-time.

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

hofnar posted:

Not that I expect any earthshaking revelations from the press conference, but CNN apparently doesn't care about or isn't aware of the press conference.

They also haven't jumped on the "definitely for sure a hijacking, we're serious this time" bandwagon, unlike many other news outlets.

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

Lanky Coconut Tree posted:

Ban all flight sims

Holy poo poo this could be an epic resurgence for Jack Thompson if this pilot "trained" for his hijacking on a flight sim.

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

Lanky Coconut Tree posted:

"Hmm yes I just reached 18000 hours flight experience, I'd better go home and sit down at my flight sim and train some more"

I see you've read Jack Thompson's book about logical reasoning.

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

samizdat posted:

Some aviation nerd on Twitter says it's likely to have landed (not crashed) in Iran, there was a pilot involved (as in, nobody from outside stormed the secure cockpit and took over), and that all the passengers are dead.



Furthermore, it's not going to be filled with explosives, refueled and hitting the skies again—it was taken for whatever desired cargo was on board (not for hostages) and is now probably cut up (tail/wings removed) and hidden somewhere.

How come India didn't notice a plane? I don't know. But it sounds like the plane was operating relatively normally (not erratic enough to set off anyone's alarms):

"Because the pings between the satellite and the aircraft registered that the aircraft's satellite communications system was healthy and able to transmit, the data did not immediately raise any red flags in the hours after the jet's disappearance."

The longer we go without finding any trace of this plane, the more likely I am to believe a story like this.

edit: tempted to register isMH370stillmissing.com

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.
Has anyone considered that the person at the controls managed to pull off a Sullenberger-style water landing? Then the plane just eased itself into the ocean depths like an old man into a nice warm bath.

This would be disastrous because it means we'll never find anything. But a ditching is very hard to do well, even harder in a Boeing (from what I understand about the levels of automation between Boeing/Airbus).

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

Mr. Gibbycrumbles posted:

Works for me, I'm going by boat next time, and I loving hate the ocean, with its freak waves and blue whales and poo poo.

Maybe it was a blue whale that jizzed all over the controls when they reached a radar-evading altitude.

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

Dreamlogic posted:

Wouldn't the airline be held somewhat responsible if their employee committed mass murder on the clock?

As the poster above me noted, this would open up the airline for litigation if it could be proved that it was pilot suicide.

In the case of SilkAir Flight 185, two prominent theories emerged - one of a mechanical malfunction (uncontrolled rudder hard-over), one of pilot suicide. The latter could not be proved conclusively so SilkAir got off and Boeing's rudder supplier was left with the blame and a $44 million lawsuit.

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

Al Borland posted:

Eh, I don't think they'll be getting much money it is Malaysia airlines after all.

I think it's usually the insurance companies that actually take the financial bath in these events. Malaysia Airlines should have insurance for crashes - on the plane and for liability (crew/passengers/other planes/buildings/people on the ground/wildlife reserves).

That's why it's important to find a cause, so the insurance companies for all parties involved won't kick-up a fuss over whether to payout or not.

"No evidence of pilot error or improper maintenance practices. We're not paying!" - Malaysian Airlines' insurance company
"No evidence of aircraft malfunction. We're not paying!" - Boeing's insurance company

Rick Rickshaw fucked around with this message at 17:07 on Mar 19, 2014

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

Spacman posted:

A good bet as to why the Aussie SAR are looking there would involve JORN.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jindalee_Operational_Radar_Network

They are not going to own up to it for capability reasons, but there is a fair chance that they went over their records once the satellite info came back. The range of it is vastly understated in that article.

e: Imagine that the US is an island and that radar keeps the Mexicans out. It's that sort of system, but Aussies hate Muslims and Asians not Mexicans.

Well this would be awesome if true.

Related reading: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/missing-malaysian-plane-why-is-australia-silent-on-secret-radar-data/1/350162.html

edit:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-the-horizon_radar#Australia

OTH Wikipedia on JORN posted:

It has an official range of 3,000 kilometres (1,900 mi) but in 1997 the prototype was able to detect missile launches by China[6] over 5,500 kilometres (3,400 mi) away.

Rick Rickshaw fucked around with this message at 15:59 on Mar 20, 2014

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

James Polk posted:

dang, they're not gonna find it and this is gonna bug me the rest of my life

I am also moving on and do not believe they will ever find the crash site even if they do find some floating wreckage within the next week, or some wreckage washed-up on shore.

The question is, will this event force constant GPS tracking of all ocean-crossing airplanes? Or maybe install some sort of giant floating smiley face that deploys on impact with water so we know where to look for the drat airplane turned submarine.

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.
CBC is reporting the Chinese have found two objects, while CNN is reporting the Aussies have found two objects.

4 objects 2 countries or 2 objects 1 cuntry?!

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

mstrkrft posted:

Sometimes it's 45+ days, really depends on the circumstances. Given how loving dumb this whole situation has been, I'd say it's already dead or has been eaten by a whale.

I figure an electric eel probably fried the memory chips in the depths of the ocean.

Mmm....deep fried memory chips... *drool*

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

gradenko_2000 posted:

The passengers on that one Japanese airliner that blew out its whole tail section underwent several hours of violent altitude changes as the pilots sought to control the plane purely by manipulating engine throttle. Crash site investigators later recovered many farewell letters written by the passengers on whatever paper they had on hand.

I think it was actually only 32 minutes, but that's 1919 more seconds than I would want to live while knowing I'm going to die.

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

pacmania90 posted:

You're going to die. I hope I didn't ruin the rest of your life.

No because I still have a chance to sleep with your mom. If I was on a plane and about to die I would have to be on the same plane as her and those are not good odds.

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.
Man, if they actually did find it, what were the odds of blindingly finding the drat thing from the pinger? Needle in a haystack metaphors galore here.

Let the conspiracy theories about China knowing where to look commence.

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.
Apparently Australia has also heard the pulse. It's probably just a dying, singing whale.

Where was Rita MacNeil buried?

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Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.
CNN is now using lunchroom props (frozen pizza cardboard) to illustrate pinging range. Did they fire their graphics department?

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