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etalian
Mar 20, 2006

asdf32 posted:

Yeah bubbles and crisis are obviously part of the process with capitalism and I agree that history suggests China should hit one soon.

The BBC documentary is pretty good, basically the main way China coped with the 2009 recession was taking the credit bubble and state controlled economy to a extreme level.

Doing things such as building massive mass transit projects or skyscrapers in half the normal time compared to the west just to avoid angry unemployed workers.

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etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Accretionist posted:

I'm unfamiliar with rail infrastructure. Should I interpret expanded high-speed rail capacity/networks as implying increased shipping capacity, too? Could I interpret this as reflecting increasing economic integration across central Asia?

Also, if the Arctic Circle is going to be as big a deal as I've seen suggested, could this project be thought of as less connecting china to the world than connecting Arctic-adjacent Sino-Russian rail infrastructure to the world?

It's more because China is doing insane amount of infrastructure upgrade to avoid a mass of angry workers.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

blueyedevil posted:

The price is slightly higher than what China pays for -stan gas but lower than what Russia receives from Europe. Russia was trying to push this deal through as fast as possible because the Kremlin was probably getting a bit nervous about the future relationship with the EU.

Yeah given their dependence on energy exports it made sense to hedge their bets against future troubles with the EU/USA over Ukraine.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Daduzi posted:

Good article, matches up with what I've been hearing but add some details. Not too sure about the note of optimism at the end: "the Chinese invested heavily in infrastructure and education, particularly scientific education. This strategy provided a platform for rapid growth which, once China gets through its current problems, could well prove more durable than the Conference Board report acknowledges". I currently work with 13 Chinese universities and have taught professors from another 20 more and I have to say that if the hope is that scientific education and research will be the key to China's future growth then China's in deep poo poo.

China also used Keynesian spending on steroids as a way to avoid the 2009 recession and continue its rapid GNP growth. Of course bubbles never last forever.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

-Zydeco- posted:

I have no idea how stock markets work. Whats the deal with pensioners? Is the Chinese government using some sort of federal retirement fund to buy worthless Chinese stocks to try and make it look like the market is staying steady?

The law got changed to allow Chinese pensions to invest in risky local investments like derivatives or A class stocks.

Government is hoping a flood of pension money will help revive the market.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Nintendo Kid posted:

Go do an economics major instead of half-assing an economics minor, your professors will teach you.


You're not open to debate. There is absolutely no reason to avoid deficit spending when the world's beating a path to your door to buy your debt at interest rates that practically reach 0% when inflation is factored. You take all you can get and use it do things with. If all of a sudden treasuries start needing to have a 15% rate to get people to buy 'em, then ewe can stop doing it, maybe.

The entire world, including China, relies heavily on US treasury securities, which gives enormous power to rack up as much debt as we can at bargain basement rates.

Not to mention big institutional money such as Social Security invests in US treasury bills since they are a safer investment.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Jumpingmanjim posted:

You all laugh about the national debt now, but wait til the Chinese call it in :smug:

Good think despite the GOP talking point about being in debt to the chinese other countries like Japan hold more treasuries.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Fojar38 posted:

I'm betting that these explosions happen all the time but this is the first time the Western media is covering them as part of their broader "Holy poo poo China is melting" story.

maybe with enough industrial explosions it can actually melt irl

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

CommieGIR posted:

Ahahahaha, I guess all those arrests really worked in getting confidence back in the market.

beatings will continue until the index improves

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

CommieGIR posted:

More arrests!

stock market is like tinkerbell, you have to believe to make it fly again

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

GreyjoyBastard posted:

:stonk:

While hilarious, this is also not great.

it's like what happened in russia when the price of oil crashed.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

AllanGordon posted:

Hope they have another parade coming up.

maybe some more university cheering will make it better?

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Mange Mite posted:

China seems pretty much what you'd expect from a country run by engineers.

More precisely it's a country run by engineers who cheated their way through undergrad.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Daduzi posted:

I'm sure that foreign banks are the ones selling all the A shares.

Someone remind me, what's an A share?

A shares are domestic shares that are locked out from foreign investors, while H shares are shares traded in the Hong Kong stock market for the same company that can be
bought by foreign investors.

Lots of big brokerages such as Vanguard are planning to add A share exposure for emerging market funds next years.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

The Lord of Hats posted:

:allears:

Oh man, I can't wait to see this again--will this mean that everything is back on the market, or is it mostly still frozen?

Well the initial response back in July was to prevent large numbers of people from selling their A class shares for a few months.

Now the people with frozen accounts will be able to trade again, most likely dumping their stocks.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

ocrumsprug posted:

The Shanghai-A is Chinese only no?

Vanguard Group starting shifting over to more class A exposure last year for their emerging market funds.

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etalian
Mar 20, 2006


It's a classic case of garbage in garbage out.

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