Char posted:

I wanted to make a summary for the Italian situation, but guess what? poo poo's hosed up.
I'll do it nonetheless but this round of elections is turning into local politics: we're pretty much going to verify if Berlusconi's really dead, if Renzi's really our new Berlusconi and if Grillo has vision or is just a hack.

LemonDrizzle posted:

He did a great job of building coalitions as a centrist in Belgium, but in Europe I imagine that he'd be far too outspokenly federalist to get anything of note done - he'd alienate huge chunks of the EPP and a large fraction of S&D right from the get-go. Regardless, it's all a bit academic since he's got no hope of taking the presidency.


Are there any figures on projected turnouts around the union?

edit - re: Blair, I think he gets an unfairly bad rap from the left on non-Iraq issues. People tend to forget that Labour ran on its traditional socialist platforms four times between 1979 and 1992 and lost horribly each time, even when the Tories were pushing policies that literally started riots and tanked the economy. Most of his domestic policies were reasonable compromises given that the public clearly had little appetite for unreformed social democracy, and New Labour did have a number of notable and unambiguously positive achievements that tend to get glossed over or straight up disregarded.

GaussianCopula posted:

The northern european public will not accept Eurobonds, it's really that simple. Yes the German SPD was in favor of it for a certain time, but as soon as election time got closer they did not want to talk about it at all.

I dont think that the people in the EU are ready for an even closer integration. They still feel like they are German, French, Greek as their primary identity and are not willing to allow further centralizing of the EU. They dont want to pay for the southern states, because they feel that they lived beyond their means and the austerity measures are the only way for them to get back onto the right track. Thats why EU and Euro sceptic parties had so many victories on Sunday.

In my opinion it is important that the will of the people is respected and they dont want more EU they want less.

Furthermore it is comical to me that southern europe still does not get that austerity is the only way. The idea of "lets spend more and it will get better" is absurd, its throwing good money after bad. If spending more money than you can afford is such a brilliant policy, why is Germany, who never used fiscal policy for anything but a strong DM, the strongest economy and not Greece or Spain, who spend so much more?

Phlegmish posted:

I don't think this type of electoral condescension has ever worked. People just vote for the 'extremists' out of spite.

Riso posted:

Erdogan manages to be worse than Putin but nobody cares because he's in NATO or something.

Cat Mattress posted:

If you need to use a prestigious name like Champagne to sell your product, then it's because you product doesn't sell on its own merits, which means your product is crap.

namesake posted:

What would the secession do apart from annoy Spanish nationalists? I know it's a wealthy part of Spain but surely that isn't going to destroy Spain's economy.

LemonDrizzle posted:

Pretty pictures from Auntie Beeb:

Typo posted:

A flat income tax in second world countries might not necessarily be a bad thing because rich people are really good at gaming the tax code and a flat tax sometimes actually increases the proportion paid by the wealthy.

GaussianCopula posted:

You do understand that part of the reforms that are required by Greece address the problem of lacking competitiveness and are aimed to reduce the unemployment rate? Creating more public sector jobs is not the solution, because they do not finance them self. Deficit spending to Greece to were it was in 2009/10, an insolvent country that was no longer able to finance itself. How on earth could you believe that more of the same would yield beneficial results?

It was necessary that Greece's GDP would contract because wages had to fall and because Greece could not devalue it's currency, that meant nominal wages had to fall, which causes a contraction in the GDP.

Oh and if you want to reduce welfare dependency, Greek public sector jobs are in many cases just another form of welfare.

Cat Mattress posted:

If the Greek are expected to absolutely 100% repay back their debt no matter what, then they should do so, certainly -- but capping the interest rate at inflation level, no more. In the absence of the ability to default, then interests above inflation is usury, plain and simple.

GaussianCopula posted:

So did Syriza already do something? They had some day 1 promises didn't they?

Nintendo Kid posted:

When you say 750€ minimum wage, that's 750€ per how much time worked exactly?

Gorelab posted:

The Greeks as they EU is keeping them are almost certainly better off defaulting it feels. Either way they take a haircut but right now the EU just seems to be wanting them to stay in an eternal twilight of just barely paying while at least in a default there's some chance of getting out.

GaussianCopula posted:

The Greeks can have their socialist utopia, if they can pay for it. The social systems of the Northern European countries are not being propped up by Greece or Spain, they are paid for by the inhabitants of those countries. To me that is an important difference.

GaussianCopula posted:

The Troika isn't forcing Greece to do anything. They are simply stating that if Greece does something the Eurozone wants (e.g. reforms, spending cuts), they get money from the Eurozone. The choice is still made be the Greeks them self.

GaussianCopula posted:

I don't have a crystal ball, sorry. But it is considerable harder for them because they dont get "bonus seats" like Syriza got in Greece, which will potentially make it harder for them to form a government even if they should win.

That's another fun fact about Greece, their government is not even backed by 50% of the votes but they like to harp on and on about the mandate they got from the Greek population.

Geriatric Pirate posted:

Sure, no one can stop a default, but for the millionth time here, the issue is not that Greece wants to default, it's that Greece wants to default and still borrow money and have the ECB prop up their banks.



Also, I do find the complaining about Eastern European emigration to be the ultimate hypocrisy/FYGMism of the guys on this thread. Consequences of immigration within the EU:
- Eastern European emigrants get a better life in the west
- People who stay behind in Eastern European countries enjoy the highest wage growth and per capita GDP growth rates in the EU
- Companies in the west get a wider pool of potential employees
- Poor little Western European raised goons now have to compete with much harder working Eastern Europeans for jobs, claim a "race to the bottom" (despite the rise in Eastern European wages), cry about it online, oppose immigration on the grounds that it's hurting the countries where immigrants are leaving from

PT6A posted:

I'm not well-informed about how EU politics work, but aren't the democratically-elected representatives (and presumably the people they appoint) supposed to look out for the interest of their constituents? This means they're pushing Greece very hard, but that would seem to be to the benefit of the rest of the EU for the most part. You can't say they don't give a poo poo about democracy when they're in charge of representing not only the man on the street in Athens, but also the man on the street in Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam, Madrid and everywhere else in the union.

Xoidanor posted:

Costs of living across Europe vary way to much for that to in any way be workable.

awesome-express posted:

That's what the Maastricht criteria are for, but in its eternal wisdom Greece fudged those numbers so lolz

doverhog posted:

So, should the EU have required a caretaker government be appointed as a condition for the bail outs? Might've been a good idea really, if a bit extreme.

NihilismNow posted:

This seems like a impartial paper.

So he set out to prove austerity caused suicide and he proved austerity caused suicide. Amazing.

quote:

his co-author, economics professor Alan Collins

demonicon posted:

Okay so if this is just about the preventing the suffering of people on principle: Why do you think Greece would be the first in line? Why do you think it is the job of European countries to do this and not the job of all countries?

GaussianCopula posted:

You are seriously supporting the idea of recruiting an army of google glasses wearing people that are going to spy on every business they frequent to combat VAT evasion?

Riso posted:

British labour opened the immigration floodgates and are therefore the preferred party anyway.

3peat posted:

I was actually just about to post the one from the latest eurobarometer

3peat posted:

It's so good of an idea that I expect millions of Irish politicians to cry out in terror

3peat posted:

Freezer posted:

It does specify Western Europe. As a wild guess, imagine a really small bar all the way to the right, followed only by Bulgaria.

Randler posted:

Financial assets might not include real estate. If you include real estate, a lot of "poor" countries move to the left and "rich" Germany moves to the right.

V. Illych L. posted:

valls is a huge arsehole and a third wayist

of course hollande is hollande

why can the PS not have any talent

Shadoer posted:

Well before a responsible greek government should have come to power and did things like collect taxes and pursued a growth strategy. That didn't happen.

So now it's either repay the debt through the ECB plan or go to the Drachma.


Except then you get into the problems of hyperinflation again.

Riso posted:

https://www.facebook.com/501456643350586/photos/a.501460190016898.1073741828.501456643350586/501477776681806/?type=1&fref=nf

Riso posted:

Domestic politics.

GaussianCopula posted:

My argument is not that an increase in VAT is generally not regressive, because under "normal" circumstances it might very well be, but that it is not in Greece, because of very specific parameters.

LemonDrizzle posted:

So, uh, there's a general strike on in Finland over austerity: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/8ff68d6cb69a4632854f33320e1dcfe6/nationwide-strike-brings-parts-finland-halt