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Who will you be voting for?
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DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Pinterest Mom posted:

I'd posit that a lot of NDP supporters aren't NDP supporters because they want the NDP to win, but because they want left-wing policies to be implemented. This budget looks a whole lot like the Liberals delivering on longstanding NDP priorities on several fronts, and it might have been nice for the ONDP to take yes for an answer.

I think it'd generally be long term political death for the ONDP and all of it's ideas if it backed Liberal government without a formal coalition agreement for the totality of it's term in office, it's asking to be seen as redundant. There's also zero ways to enforce the delivery of these promises once the Bill is passed before the next election a year from now, when no one will be paying attention at all because it'll be right on top of a federal election campaign.

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DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

infernal machines posted:

I'm curious how you think an NDP budget would differ materially from the one the Liberals put forward. Unless, of course you're dismissing them both and counting on an OPC win.

Would fix the corporate income tax deficit which is the ultimate cause of Ontario's structural revenue deficiency.

Wouldn't screw over public sector workers on their pensions.

Would not be a one-off campaign budget no one expects to be fully implemented, but part of a consistent governing philosophy.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

infernal machines posted:

I have no reason to believe the OLP would deliver on anything in the budget in particular, but presumably they'd make a good show of it. On the other hand the NDP is going to be in a much worse position in the event of a OPC minority government.
Only if the Liberals cooperate with the PCs that seems like another good reason to prefer the NDP to the Liberals.

Minority governments do not last 4 years, the NDP voting down the government isn't some shocking development.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

vyelkin posted:

This is a stupid election and I hope the NDP pay for it by electing a Liberal majority, at which point Wynne will steal all the NDP's good plays and name every bill the "Laugh at Andrea Horwath Act".

The first thing a Liberal majority will do is stop playing lip service to the left. Their priorities under a majority (and when they were down one seat) were engineering "a very special report on the importance of austerity" and crushing the teachers and other public sector unions.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

sbaldrick posted:

So I've figured out what is going to sink the PCO this time, Hudak or someone is going to talk about family values at some point and say Wynne doesn't speak for Ontario families, which will come off as an attack because of her sexuality.

You know it will happen
The people around Hudak are not nearly that stupid, he's going to be kept well away from social issues and if he hasn't said anything dumb about Wynne's sexual orientation in the last year and a half it's unlikely he does so in the next 37 days.

He does have a 300lb weak spot in the form of the disgraced Mayor of Toronto who has much less self control and no minders left who can tell him to shut up, who should be returning from his (spoiler alert: unsuccessful) forced rehab in the final week of the campaign. Hudak is very reluctant to outright condemn Ford since he is tapped directly into the unthinking id of their movement, but the odds on Ford saying something that demands condemnation are never worse than 50/50.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Ikantski posted:

I can't believe Hudak is going to lose to these people.

:ssh: Lying about your terrible policies is generally a better strategy than telling the truth about your terrible policies.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Helsing posted:

Yeah, this is some very principled leadership from Horwath all right. "We're gonna cut a buncha government departments. No I'm not sure which ones. The point is that I'm gonna stop the gravy train!"
Cutting cabinet positions is not anything like cutting departments.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Rutibex posted:

It's a nice handout to landlords. People paying rent will of course see none of this discount. Great work NDP! :bravo:

I don't agree with the policy either but plenty of people pay rent and Hydro, myself included, there's no obligation for a landlord to cover that cost.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

DStecks posted:

You fuckin killed our government just for the sake of doing it, without even a plan for what to do next, let's be buddies now

What would you suggest the Liberals do in the event of a minority government, join with the Conservatives who are just as responsible for "killing" their government, or immediately call another election where only the Conservatives will have any money?

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
Niagara Falls Liberal candidate considering legal action over altered tweet

quote:

A Liberal candidate in the June 12 Ontario election is considering legal action after he says someone altered one of his tweets “to try and make a fool” out of him.

Lionel Tupman, who is running in Niagara Falls, says someone intentionally altered his message — an invitation to a campaign event — to change the word “plans” to “penis.”

He says he’s consulting with the party’s leadership to determine how best to “control the damage” and get the word out that he never issued the controversial tweet.

Tupman says his campaign is considering legal action because he thinks the tweet can “seriously damage a campaign.”

The Liberal candidate is a litigation lawyer and says he takes the “nasty” attack on his Twitter account “very seriously.”

“There’s no doubt it will be injurious,” Tupman said in an interview. “It makes me look like an idiot.”
Most hilarious auto-correct of all time?

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Leofish posted:

I get that nobody likes to be criticized but saying, "they're not real NDPers" is the dumbest poo poo. Besides, if they're so against corruption, why did they wait until now to bring down the government and not the budget before?

In Ontario the opposition is only allowed to bring down the government once a year.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Dallan Invictus posted:

Yes, but isn't the budget that opportunity? Wynne has tabled two budgets and the OLP hasn't gotten noticably more corrupt between spring 2013 and now, I think Leofish's point is that the rationale for pulling the trigger now as opposed to then is hollow.
Well yes in the real world every vote on a confidence motion in any Westminster Parliament in the last 50 years has been a tactical decision and their is no point in trying to convince a cynical audience like Something Awful it's anything but. I think the NDP should have voted down the budget last year but the Party was broke and Labour insisted that should not.

That said the Liberals are just as corrupt as they were a year ago isn't a particularly good line either.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Dallan Invictus posted:

Speaking of "things that are just as true now as they were then."

The problem with Horwath deciding to bring down the government this time around isn't that it's hypocritical. Nobody really gives a poo poo about the motivations for deciding one way or the other on a confidence vote. But if she's going to throw aside the principles she won the leadership on to go Maximum Middle-Class Job-Creator Populism while also being the last major candidate to put out their platform and thoroughly alienating not just their base but even the Red Dipper/Orange Liberal types they're tacking towards (you have literally accused me of being this in the past so let me assure you I know whereof I speak), how exactly did she think she was going to win this election that, let's remember, she dictated the timing of? Especially since a Horwath win was the only possible outcome of this election that was any better than the status quo and the budget she voted down?
I already said my tactical decision would have been different, but I think going next year would have been even worse tactically for the party. Supporting a minority for the entirety of it's mandate is political suicide and the gas plant scandal will have been thoroughly swept under the rug.

I disagree with Horwath a lot but as provincial NDP leaders go her main flaw is not tactical incompetence, she'd increased the size of her caucus by 24% since the last election and will almost certainly hold more seats then she won in 2011.


vyelkin posted:

I just can't really see Horwath and Wynne getting along after the way this election has gone, and I can't see either of them supporting a Hudak minority. I imagine the LGen wouldn't want to call a new election, but I don't really see any coalition prospects that are viable at this point in the campaign anyway. I mean, hell, Wynne would be putting forward the same budget that Horwath already rejected, since that's also their campaign platform, and God knows what the NDP would have to do to get support from either party to form a government.

People in this thread took the election call a lot more personally than the Kathleen Wynne did, for one thing she knew it was coming months ago.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
This is crazy talk, the NDP in a minority is never going to cross labour by putting Tim Hudak into power for a year when he'll have unrestricted power over labour disputes. The Party would be bankrupt forever.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

JohnnyCanuck posted:

Have you seen what Horwath is campaigning on? I think the ONDP left labour behind a while ago.

How has Horwath made any move that was remotely anti-labour, this isn't Federal politics the ONDP is a labour party in the sense that labour buys and pays for them to exist. Labour also gives to the Liberals of course but if any party has betrayed their labour allies it's the Ontario Liberals.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

vyelkin posted:

iirc all the indications we've gotten are that labour wanted them to support the Wynne budget, so in a sense this entire election is the NDP turning their back on labour even if none of their specific policies are anywhere near as anti-union as the PCs.

It's true that labour generally is terrified of Hudak and has been the primary factor in getting Horwath to back the Liberals as long as she had, but they've hardly left the party, the party would be destitute if labour abandoned them. Most labour leaders remember that the Liberals tried to legislate away the right to collective bargaining only 2 years ago.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Mmann posted:

And by moving to the right of the liberals, buying ads to basically fake endorsements from right wing rags, and potentially putting Hudak into power by alienating their base and liberal swing voters the NDP is surely making labour feel safe.
The NDP is not to the right of the Liberals on labour issues, rhetorically or otherwise.


Mmann posted:

Gasplantgasplantgasplant!

Is the gas plant not a real horrifying example of corruption because you say it like this?

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

brucio posted:

Weren't the other 2 parties planning on canceling the gas plants too or am I misremembering the last election?

Not actually sure (the PCs definitely were) of course the scandal is not because they cancelled the plants it's that they decided to build them in the first place, signing contracts with penalty provisions in the hundreds of millions and then cancelled the contracts at the height of an election campaign when they proved unpopular in important ridings and subsequently attempted to delete the records demonstrating that the decision was a purely political one.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Mmann posted:

It's an issue I don't give a gently caress about. Most people don't give a gently caress about it.
Maybe this will surprise you but a lot of Canadians just expect their elected leaders to be corrupt because every single government on every level has had some level of corruption for as long as I've been alive.
That's a terrifyingly cynical view a party blew away something in the neighbourhood of a billion dollars most of which ended up as a corporate give away but you can't be bothered to give a poo poo because "oh everyone does that"

I care about record a poo poo-tonne more than I care about rhetoric and the Liberal record beyond a budget they never expected was going to be enacted is solidly centre-right. Now I don't like everything about how Horwath is campaigning or has acted in opposition (although my chief complaint on the latter is that she propped up the Liberals for so long), but i've got no illusions about which parties are going to give away billions in corporate giveaways (above and below the table) and who respects collective bargaining.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

CAPTAIN CAPSLOCK posted:

If the budget had passed, they can't just go "lol whoops jk" and not implement it. It becomes law. And are you seriously saying that even though the NDP has shifted to the right you expect them to pull off their mask and reveal they only did that for votes and here is their true left agenda? Because that has happened never.

I expect if the Liberals get a majority the first budget they pass will look very different from this one.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

CAPTAIN CAPSLOCK posted:

Then its a good thing the NDP shot down their left leaning budget to call this election.

Functionally I don't think they had a choice, but then I really think they should have gone last year so they wouldn't be in this position. In an ideal world they should have demanded an option to introduce a non-confidence motion at their discretion throughout the year but it is pretty perilous to go into a campaign on a process issue if it didn't work.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

geese posted:

I've heard that the ONDP was over 2.5 million dollars in debt from the 2011 election at budget time last year. I don't know about their finances are like now, but they were definitely in no financial position to be in an election last year.

Yeah I know that's why they didn't pull the trigger last time (that and we were at peak-Hudak being a horses' rear end) but I doubt whatever you've raised in the last year was worth a year of distance from the Liberals' attempt to back stab labour and the gas plant scandal.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

tagesschau posted:

The NDP isn't very good at realpolitik. (See also: seeing it as a "win" to hand Harper a majority that most Canadians voted against.)
Your version of the Dolchstosslegende is hilarious.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Jimbozig posted:

Well, ranked ballots are such a cynical bullshit move for the liberals. But at least they should help the Greens.

PR or bust.

Ranked ballots are unlikely to result in any additional Green MPs or MPPs, that's why it's not proportional, switching to an admittedly flawed (and easily caricatured voting process) is not a good step towards PR, which is why the Greens, NDP and non-partisan Fair Vote all back an MMP system.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
Meanwhile in the UK ranked voting was back by most of parliament and a well financed Yes campaign that vastly outspent the no campaign and it still lost by an even larger margin than the completely below the radar PR campaign Ontario ran.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

tagesschau posted:

You're talking about pure PR as though it's some kind of unquestionably objective good, as opposed to just good for your party. (And your example doesn't show that it's "easily caricatured," that video is outright lying when it says it's possible for someone who gets a majority of votes to lose an election.)
It's not outright lying, the party that most people selected as their first choice will often lose under AV, it's also not lying when it says its changing from a one person one vote system. It's also massively more complicated at the ballot box than FPTP or most PR systems. Nothing about ranked voting suggests its an easier sell to the public than MMP, where people will vote for the party they liked best just like they always have (only their vote will always matter).

tagesschau posted:

Furthermore, how do you get around the fact that every member must represent an electoral district? You can't just add members to Queen's Park who don't represent an electoral district.
The MMP system devised by the Law Commission and advocated by Fair Vote addresses this, MMP list candidates can easily be divided by region.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Quantum Mechanic posted:

AV/IRV is a one person, two votes system. Everyone's vote still has equal impact, it's simply that if your first preference ends up in the two-party-preferred count, your second vote goes to the same party to which your first vote went.
Yeah I know how it works and for something like an executive position like Mayor I can see its virtues, nationally though it would be such an incredibly hard sell politically to set up this massively confusing system with the only "upside" being that no Liberal government will ever be corrupt enough to lose power again.

With PR voters will vote the exact same way they always have and the upside is that every vote matters.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

vyelkin posted:

Wynne and Horwath are going to have a debate over northern issues. Hudak decided not to attend.

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/05/25/ontario_election_kathleen_wynne_andrea_horwath_to_square_off_at_northern_debate.html

I wonder if the Hudak team thought this was a smart idea: give Wynne and Horwath a chance to tear strips off each other while he remains above the fray. In reality, I expect they will devote a ton of time to attacking him without him being present to defend himself, so I wonder whether it might backfire. Either way, it's stupid that we only get one real debate in an election for Canada's largest province, and that one of the main party leaders can just decide to not participate in other ones.

Alternately, they just don't care because the north votes NDP.
The PC's have zero chance of picking up any seats in the North or losing the one they have.

It's pretty short sighted to write off a region just because you aren't going to pick up any seats there this cycle (and turning up here functionally costs almost nothing), but Hudak knows he's never going to run another election if he loses this one and gives no fucks.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

AegisP posted:

Well, Wynne tried to talk about pensions. But then Horwath decided to just talk over her with gas plants, gas plants, gas plants.

Andrea did good multitasking there, I think she got the better of the pension exchange at the same time, Wynne never really defended the PRPPs.

Hudak playing nice with Horwath is creepy as hell.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Pinterest Mom posted:

Who are all these businesses who are gravely concerned about the government's balance sheet?

Apparently they're talking to Wynne as well :ughh:

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
Horwath did well in the beginning, but kind of faded, at least she landed some good sound bytes. Hudak dominated his whole time and never really slipped up. Wynne probably regrets asking for just one debate she was totally off her footing until the very end.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Jimbozig posted:

Whether threehundredeight know what they're doing or not
Yeah you could have stopped right here. Threehundredeight as far as I know is just one guy, who demonstrably does not know/never has known what he is doing, he's got a lot more in common with Dean Chambers the guy who coined unskewing than some PC hack who happens to pick the poll he likes for obvious reasons, although to be fair to Dean Chambers I think he did admit he was wrong once.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
Hudak won the debate, easily. Obviously he's wasn't going to convince me or most of the people in this thread to vote for him but he catered to his base quite well without any of the normal Hudak slips that end up alienating his soft supporters.

Wynne spent half the debate apologizing and didn't get much of anything done the rest of her time.

Horwath had a strong first half, scored a few zingers on Hudak and definitely stuck the knife into Wynne. Awful close.

Ipsos did a flash poll, the top line numbers are probably garbage but the way the numbers moved from who people thought was going to win to who people thought did win really does tell the tale of the debate.

Who won the debate?

Hudak -36%
Wynne -27%
Horwath -26%

Who do you think will win the debate?

Hudak -24%
Wynne -32%
Horwath -17%

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
Wynne can just say she means she'll let Hudak try to form government first, but she is making one of the hardest political manoeuvres that much more difficult. I don't get what advantage she gains from the statement, voters being afraid of a Liberal-NDP coalition doesn't make any sense her entire governing record was under a de facto coalition.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

Jimbozig posted:

There's a difference to be drawn between a minority government that can appeal to either of the other parties for help in passing legislation depending on what is in that legislation, and a formal coalition with an agreement involving joint decision-making. A Liberal-NDP coalition would give the NDP a lot more power than an NDP-supported Liberal minority, with cabinet positions and more input on the details of laws.

Since the election was first called, it seemed that a slim PC minority leading to a Liberal-NDP coalition was basically the only way Horwath could come out ahead from this election. A Liberal or PC majority would be worse for her, while another Liberal minority would just be continuing the status quo. It seems to me that the whole point of having this election is that Horwath wants the PCs to do well, but not too well. Unless she actually thought she could win (how??).
A formal coalition would never be the stronger party's first choice, the only way that would happen is if the smaller party wield's enough leverage to make it a necessity, in Ontario in practice that makes it a virtual impossibility since the Liberals know there is no way the NDP could prop up a Hudak government. It does become a slight possibility if they are the second and third place parties only because such a risky maneuver is only really worth the subsequent heat if you can guarantee a working government for a couple of years.

Of course there's a lot of room for negotiations between the Liberals and the NDP in what they might be able to negotiate that falls short of positions in Cabinet.

I think your psychoanalysis of Horwath is more than a bit off, of course she thinks she can win somehow, she's at 20% in the polls she'd only need to move 15% of the province to win, it's not like she's the Green Party. Her problem I think is she's concentrating on growth outside of Toronto, particularly in the South West where she's from. It's been a rewarding strategy for the past couple of years, the party has increased the size of it's caucus considerably, but of course no left-wing party is going to be able to govern Ontario without Toronto.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."
Hudak also has the biggest war chest and his operation is anything like (or being directly assisted by) the Federal Conservatives he'll have the most sophisticated voter database, but even he is going to have a very hard time moving enough Ontarians from their entrenched positions to form a majority. Vis-a-vis big promises he also has one huge advantage in that he has nothing to lose, if he doesn't deliver a government to the PC's he is 100% out on his rear end. The Ontario NDP was out in the wilderness so long that if Horwath keeps incremental growth going her leadership is probably secure.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

vyelkin posted:

gently caress off, Andrea Horwath, seriously. What the gently caress.
Wynne did include PRPPs in her budget which will be administrated by private companies (and were invented as far as I can tell by the Harper government), it's only a side project to her big ORPP reform but as Horwath pointed out in the debate it's the only part that's going to come into effect any time soon.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

vyelkin posted:

It is apparently true, though, that Horwath refused Wynne's suggestions to meet and discuss what should be in the budget while it was being written (before any of the leaks). Even Hudak was apparently willing to sit down in a room with Wynne and talk about what should be in the budget, even if what he actually said was probably "Fire everyone and appoint me Premier, and then maybe I'll vote for it". This implies that Horwath had decided to shoot down the budget literally no matter what was in it.

That's more or less the open thesis of the NDP campaign, that Liberal corruption and a failure to live up to past negotiations made a deal impossible, Horwath's big mistake was not making this more explicit months ago and leaving open a patina of a chance that she might support the budget.

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

bunnyofdoom posted:

I saw one half an hour ago on the pedestrian bridge over thw queensway at Parkdale. Course it was too small to really read at 120km/h

There's a tonne on Baseline in Ottawa-West.

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DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

vyelkin posted:

Bit early to be saying this given polls are nowhere near closing, but advance poll numbers were way down so I won't be at all surprised if they're right.

Advance polling only dropped 6% despite the fact that there was 43% more advanced voting days in 2011 than this year, so that's not really a clear indicator of anything other than that more people would vote if we made it easier for them to do so.

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