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Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Since Putin of all people believes he is in a Clancy novel I'm not sure no Clancychat works. How about a "no gameplanning WWIII, no talking about nuclear war" rule instead. Hopefully reality hasn't shifted enough that those are real options though posting them is probably jinxing it, sorry for the future nuclear war everyone.

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Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Russia's actions prove they are belligerent. The objection you state is that we treated Russia as belligerent, and the solution you offer is giving license to be belligerent. It's senseless. "Russia is a threat to Ukraine because we didn't give them approval to be a threat to Ukraine."

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Majorian posted:

They know Ukraine will join the EU and grow closer to Europe. They know they've lost Ukraine, culturally and economically.

Then why did this all start with an EU trade deal?

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

What with the, uh, NATO and the ABM and the dastardly EU, does Russia really have any other option but to tie the damsel to the train tracks and laugh maniacally, twisting its mustache as the locomotive bears down upon her helpless virtue?

Makes you think.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

I don't think Putin cares at all about legitimacy of anything, and is in fact pretty certain the concept doesn't exist. The Russian dialogue on this and other issues comes down to competing powers, spheres, etc because the concept of self-determination is to them just a laughable smokescreen used by the west.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

It's not really a civil war if a foreign power instigated it, all combatants on one side are supplied by that foreign power, and that foreign power's regular military forces are doing much or even most of the fighting/dying.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

You're seeing this in terms of the dreaded political correctness rather than simple convenience. Saying the same word the locals say is objectively simpler.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

I didn't go from saying "Peking" to "Beijing" because China has a chip on its shoulder for weakness and paradoxically is somehow forcing me to - I do it because I don't want to sound like an idiot to Chinese people.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

The ethnic Russians posting in this thread are more "lol you can't stop us" than expressing any real fear so I'm not sure that's true.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Maarek posted:

He didn't just use 'triggerwords', I took his meaning to be that other Hungarians were stupid for expecting the government to make sure they had a decent wage and place to live and that non-stupid people understood that 'competition' and (indirectly) the free market would provide those things.

You can't talk about those people being dissatisfied or angry without bringing up the repeated enforcement of austerity upon them and I would say that you are wrong and their financial, legal, and social situation is entirely common for a European country that goes through privatization and austerity.

What you need to understand is that I am an American and therefore impotently arguing with people is literally the only kind of political power I can really exercise, you can't ask me to give that up, pal.

Lol at goons literally cheering for fascism because someone made the mistake of saying that capitalism was good.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Maarek posted:

There are fascist parties in Europe making gains because people are angry about their living conditions and don't agree with the way their governments are trying to "fix" them, AKA austerity. This is a bad thing and we should avoid it by not letting those people do that thing that makes people get really angry and vote for fascist parties, I think this is a concept simple enough even for a GiP poster to understand.

"It is okay that actual literal fascists are going to make life even worse economically, because, austerity, was, like, bad. Someone who actually lives there and does not want things to become even economically worse is part of the problem, because he said trigger words I don't like."

Also, because it wasn't funny enough the first time:


Maarek posted:

What you need to understand is that I am an American and therefore impotently arguing with people is literally the only kind of political power I can really exercise, you can't ask me to give that up, pal.

"Listen, ye local, as I hold forth with my dumb opinions, for I am an American, and powerless, things are really bad here, so I know more than you or something."

Christ.

You are not adding to the discussion when a local tells you about how things are and why and you just vomit words back at them and let them know that 1) you don't know a loving thing and 2) you still consider your views and opinions more valuable than their own.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Ardennes posted:

Ultimately, the issue is economic and to be honest, economics is rather universal once you actually get down to what is happening. I don't think a new non-Orban form of austerity is what Hungary actually needs.

I don't see anyone here arguing for that. What I see is someone saying "these new measures will be very bad and I am opposed to them" and then a bunch of goons flipping their poo poo because oh no he said bad words like "entrepreneur" and "cost of health care." Basically an issue of semantic offense, leading to a round of goon denunciations and treating him like a personal embodiment of the IMF when his issue is "hey I don't like these fascists."

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Maarek posted:

The poster himself doesn't seem to want to debate economics, and I'm not going re-criticize his post to indulge you.

You were not debating economics, and your criticism was "lol fart" just like your counterpoint to me is "lol GIP." I'm taking from this that you feel appropriately stupid and won't blow up on people giving valuable insight when they use words you don't like for actual economic events, and that's good. Thank you.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

TeodorMorozov posted:

Your efforts were amazing but also useless.
That's only because SBU chief Valentyn Nalyvaichenko told on air what MH17 was downed by Buk-M.
There are no Buk-M on Russian military service. This modification of Buks is Ukrainian model ;)


A buk? Get out of here with that NATO propaganda. It was clearly shot down by a Ukrainian jet, which was trying to shoot down Putin, and yet also MH17 was intentionally downed as part of a NATO plot (or something).

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

TeodorMorozov posted:



Actually he is CIA uncovert agent. But it doesn't matter after all :)

Which of the 4-5 conflicting "NO IT WASN'T THE REBELS" narratives on MH17 do you actually believe?

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

If the Russian economy gets wrecked by oil prices, what happens? How much of Putin's support comes down to Russia's economy and how much to Russia waving its dick around?

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

It's fascinating that in this era of bountiful, immediate information, a major nation can blatantly invade another nation with regular ground forces and maintain a sense of at least locally effective deniability. Similarly, a puppet rebel group can shoot down a plane, brag on social media about shooting down a plane, and then say "no we didn't shoot down the plane" and simultaneously "the plane was already full of corpses" and it also works locally. The trick seems to be not so much hiding things, as just flood utter bullshit to an audience that wants to hear something confirming their side is good and the other side is bad. Global warming isn't real because Al Gore is fat and Russia is not invading Ukraine because NATO bad. Once the motivation to believe the obvious bullshit is there, one can avoid the cover up entirely and just go straight to ever more hilarious denials, and the people hungering to hear those denials will happily believe it.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

I like the Brown Moses blog and think the contributions are great but I agree there is an issue with a content source also being a mod and also being very interested in the issue. You have a situation where posters feel comfortable discussing the quality of the reporting from the New York Times, RT, Vice, etc but there is a often mentioned blog that discussion of is certainly implied to be dangerous. This leads to the Brown Moses blog viewpoint effectively becoming the Somethingawful thread viewpoint. I'm not saying that its conclusions are about to be torn down and valid criticisms are being brutally suppressed. Quite the contrary, I think if the blog author was not also a mod and not also a frequent poster, the Brown Moses blog would end up looking stronger as a source. The implication or perception of soft censorship, even if that perception is baseless or inaccurate, weakens credibility.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

"NATO thugs are interfering in Ukraine and sponsoring fascists"

*invades Ukraine with thugs and sponsors fascists*

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

"The birth rate is falling. It must be due to a lack of heterosexual intercourse" thinks person in the 21st century, somehow.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Nenonen posted:

John McCain has called Viktor Orban a 'neo-fascist dictator' in a senate hearing on Obama's ambassador candidate (she contributed $800k to Obama's campaign)


apparently Dear Leader is not pleased
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30318898

quote:

The former The Bold and The Beautiful producer, he said on Tuesday, was a political appointee who had contributed $800,000 (£510,000; €650,000) to President Barack Obama's last election campaign.

However, it was his next comments that most riled the Hungarian government and prompted Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto to summon US charge d'affaires Andre Goodfriend.

"I am not against political appointees," the senator said. "I understand how the game is played, but here we are, a nation (Hungary) on the verge of ceding its sovereignty to a neo-fascist dictator, getting in bed with (Russian President) Vladimir Putin, and we're going to send the producer of The Bold and The Beautiful as our ambassador."

This is stopped clock territory because it is completely true that Obama loves appointing fundraisers and democratic money insiders to actually important ambassadorial roles. Obama is pretty garbage as far as appointments in general, and I'm an Obama supporter.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Deteriorata posted:

Except that every president ever has rewarded contributors with ambassadorships. It's standard protocol. If Obama hadn't done it they would have been pissed.

Actual diplomacy is handled by careerists. The ambassador position itself is largely ceremonial.

Sure, but there are a whole lot of countries out there that are not key allies who will be offended at the choice of a money ambassador (Japan) or very likely to have something horrible happen in them (Hungary).

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

quote:

Jaresko, who grew up in a Ukrainian family in Chicago, has lived in Kiev for 20 years. She started her career in Ukraine distributing U.S. government aid to small and medium-sized businesses, then co-founded a small private equity firm, Horizon Capital, which has invested $255 million in Ukrainian companies. She has a few successful exits under her belt and an untarnished reputation as a thorough and enthusiastic manager, as well as a competent financier. She has no experience of the convoluted Ukrainian budget, however, and the finance minister will have to cut spending by about 10 percent of gross domestic product within weeks, a group of international economists recently concluded. Jaresko will need to learn quickly and act decisively in an unfamiliar, antiquated bureaucratic environment with elaborate, ritualistic paper-based procedures and lots of political traps.

Total foreigner, what a puppet, etc.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

She clearly has a ton of connections to the us government so calling her a us agent or whatever does make sense. But calling her insufficiently Ukrainian is an odd choice from team "how dare you say a Russian cannot be Ukrainian."

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Paladinus posted:

'Jews gave Slavs Christianity to make them easier to control.'

~ An actual thing some pagan nationalists believe.

It's funny to me that in America pagans are ultrahippies while in Europe pagans are mostly nazis. International pagan conventions must get awkward.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

jonnypeh posted:

So apparently Russian media just announced that a retired Estonian secret service employee who has been spending his two years of retirement in Russia was a Russian agent all along.

I'm not surprised at any rate, that's what happens if you keep employing former KGB workers, even if they're only there for their technical knowledge or whatever, that's still incredibly shortsighted. This was probably announced deliberately, I don't think much will change from this though.


What I don't get about the Russian state and its supporters is that there is this simultaneous feeling of intense, unfair victimization going on, where anything anti-Russian is desperately uncalled for and unfair. And that perspective makes at least some sense. But it exists simultaneously with this propaganda that is basically "haha, you can't stop us, we're loving with you and you can't do anything about it."

They don't work well together. Page 1 "Why this is all a NATO plot and unfair" page 2 "We did another thing to our enemies and they are powerless to resist!!"

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Vladimir Putin posted:

I think maybe the smart thing is to extract concessions over Ukraine or else he'll sign it and pretty much destroy Russia.

Putin is not a faithful negotiator and after Syria many people think Obama isn't either. Giving Putin a chance to say "yes we will comply" then not fits in perfectly with how both Putin and Obama have acted and hopefully Obama knows this, so might as well just not allow the option.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

If anything they have more incentive to double down - failure in Ukraine could signal weakness domestically. Being able to chestbeat about some adventurism is all the government has left to trumpet to the people.

The upside to Russia collapsing isn't that it will make life immediately better for Ukraine. The upside is just for the neighbors of Russia that Russia isn't currently in. Russia seemed to get more and more aggressive the better they felt economically, and seems to have been testing the waters for more expansionism. This might make expansionism unaffordable in the short term.

And I doubt military and espionage action in Ukraine is even costing them that much. Probably spending much less there now than they did subsidizing gas.

Best Friends fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Dec 16, 2014

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

The analysis is characteristically Russian in that it assumes zero agency from Ukraine or Ukrainians. It's all just a western coup. Incredible how competent NATO is, hiding behind every rock. Russia gets to make decisions, "The West" gets to make decisions, and everyone in between is just mud to be trampled upon or sculpted into tools, never making any decisions or having any goals.

Also lol on the Donbass "nope wasn't Russia!" stuff - it goes well, all the pro-Russians are shitposting about glorious Russia is winning. It goes poorly, and hey, those guys are on their own or maybe it was just all oligarchs, and let's just pretend Russian military units had and continue to have no involvement whatsoever.

edit:

Pro-Russian posters like Mightypeon show why the pro-Russian mindset is so scary - Russia's neighbors are assumed to not have any sort of agency. They are either playthings for Russian interests or for the EU/USA, and never truly independent countries. This forces a zero sum game where Russia is either dominating the country or Russia's enemy is, giving Russia every reason to trample them.

Best Friends fucked around with this message at 23:18 on Dec 18, 2014

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Traditionalists idolize heterosexual patriarchal societies, pretty much everywhere, regardless of religion.

Edit: what everyone else said.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

MaxxBot posted:

They're not particularly good on LGBT rights either, that chart is dumb.

It's a chart of what countries do white people on the internet like.

They like Sweden and Japan a lot.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

It speaks to how stupid the whole Russian intervention is if it's taken this long for the country you've invaded to throw in with NATO. Ukrainian politics were consistently swinging between being pro EU and pro Russian, but for some reason on the last pro-EU swing Russia said "gently caress it, we're hosed forever, grab what we can!!" Clearly Russia was not hosed forever with Ukraine, then. Now however, they've set Ukraine's course.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

It sucks the people of Crimea got invaded and then had a sham election and are now being punished for it.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

http://nytimes.com/2015/01/04/world/europe/ukraine-leader-was-defeated-even-before-he-was-ousted.html?_r=0

Long article in the New York Times on the fall of Yanukovych.

Intro:

quote:

KIEV, Ukraine — Ashen-faced after a sleepless night of marathon negotiations, Viktor F. Yanukovych hesitated, shaking his pen above the text placed before him in the chandeliered hall. Then, under the unsmiling gaze of European diplomats and his political enemies, the beleaguered Ukrainian president scrawled his signature, sealing a deal that he believed would keep him in power, at least for a few more months.

But even as Mr. Yanukovych sat down with his political foes at the presidential administration building on the afternoon of Friday, Feb. 21, his last authority was fast draining away. In a flurry of frantic calls to opposition lawmakers, police and security commanders were making clear that they were more worried about their own safety than protecting Mr. Yanukovych and his government.

By that evening, he was gone, evacuated from the capital by helicopter, setting the stage for the most severe bout of East-West tensions since the Cold War.

Russia has attributed Mr. Yanukovych’s ouster to what it portrays as a violent, “neo-fascist” coup supported and even choreographed by the West and dressed up as a popular uprising. The Kremlin has cited this assertion, along with historical ties, as the main justification for its annexation of Crimea in March and its subsequent support for an armed revolt by pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine’s industrial heartland in the east.

Few outside the Russian propaganda bubble ever seriously entertained the Kremlin’s line. But almost a year after the fall of Mr. Yanukovych’s government, questions remain about how and why it collapsed so quickly and completely.

An investigation by The New York Times into the final hours of Mr. Yanukovych’s rule — based on interviews with prominent players, including former commanders of the Berkut riot police and other security units, telephone records and other documents — shows that the president was not so much overthrown as cast adrift by his own allies, and that Western officials were just as surprised by the meltdown as anyone else.

It goes on to describe how the Berkut and security forces gave up on Yanukovych when he signaled would allow investigations into shootings of protestors. Thereafter his own party threw him away, and he was gone.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Why do the Russians want to kill that separatist leader?

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Cocoa Ninja posted:

It seems nuts to me that conspiracy theorists are so far down the rabbit hole that they'd look at a video like that and think it was some sort of false flag attack by Ukraine, orchestrated by the same brilliant military minds that brought you the Ilovaisk retreat.

In both post-communist states and the middle east, where routine high level government incompetence and cruelty is the norm, there is widespread belief in conspiracy theories which rely on the assumption of extreme competence in certain elites. It seems like a huge contradiction but I feel like it's somehow causal. The more hosed up government has been in your lifetime, the more you believe someone somewhere in a government is an ultra genius acting 25 steps ahead of the game.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

"If you think of it, America, is, uh, bad"

*cashes modestly upper middle class paycheck*

"I'm making it in journalism!"

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Setting Kyiv on fire would also force the EU to admit it's a war and act accordingly, which is very bad for Russia.

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

A lot of people really want to believe Russia stands against the capitalist imperialists of the West, so I'm not expecting a huge change. RT is a succor to this viewpoint but not its origin.

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Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Giving money and weapons to highly corrupt governments has also not worked out great for us. There's really no easy answer as far as supporting Ukraine.

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