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Jerry Manderbilt posted:Basically we have to hope the Dems don't horribly bungle the 2020 Presidential. This is as much dependent upon whether the next recession hits before Hillary's re-election, or after. Combined with voter fatigue, a 2018-9 recession would make it difficult.
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Nov 12, 2014 01:14
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Joementum posted:As I said, I'm skeptical of assigning too much weight to generational explanations for political leanings, but the question here isn't whether there will be a mass politic of liberal millennials in 15-20 years, but rather whether Obama will inspire a wave of future Democratic politicians who fill up the state legislatures and Congress in the same way that Reagan inspired, say, Paul Ryan.  http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/11-3-11%20Generations%20Release.pdf Actually generational gaps do explain a good chunk voting patterns, essentially forever (til people die). The fact that the original new dealers still totally defied the stereotype of old people being conservatives across 10 years of elections is pretty cool evidence of this. What matters is who is president when you're in your formative political years. Those who started paying attention under Bush are going to be permanently scarred by how bad he was, and it's still too early to tell, but I'm curious how Obama impacts those who came of age under him.
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Dec 2, 2014 02:05
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I don't know if they'll wait to run against each other and see who sticks more, but the most likely scenario is that Kamala Harris runs for Senate, and Gavin has dibs on governor once old man Brown is finally gone. Gavin's been eyeing the governor spot for a long time, and I don't think has nearly as strong national aspirations.
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Dec 9, 2014 00:59
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:Ah, sweet. I'm wondering who'll run for governor in 2018 though (and I hope it's just her in the field, given how our primary system works). If Harris runs for Senate (and wins, which is probable but hardly certain), it's Gavin. It's very likely they discussed this and divvied it up so that Harris gets Senate, Gavin gets Governor. Gavin's been the heir apparent for governor for a while, and would be governor right now if Brown hadn't resurrected himself.
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Jan 13, 2015 02:28
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Joementum posted:Steyer's out. The likelihood of Senator Harris happening is rapidly approaching 100%. Wouldn't having only two democrats on the ballot be better for Villaraigosa? The odds of it being two democrats on the final ballot are higher if it's a 3 way race between two republicans and two democrats. Villaraigosa has a better chance in a one on one race with Harris in the second round, if he can tack center/right and try to pick up some conservatives or moderates (who no longer have a candidate). I'm not saying it's likely, but I'd imagine this is exactly what Villaraigosa wants. He just needs to seem to be the viable anti-Harris.
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Jan 23, 2015 07:23
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This is an extremely effective ad. I hope Hillary, and other senate senate/congressional candidates, take note and copy its format.
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Mar 1, 2016 00:40
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Franco Potente posted:I should say, I'm skeptical of an IA pickup (and if the Dems are winning IA, they already have the Senate), but a strong candidate making Grassley sweat is going to divert desperately needed funds from other, more likely races (NH, PA, OH, etc.). This, and like pointed out above, it's important to have a decent candidate in case something wacky happens. You don't get the "legitimate rape" victory in Missouri if you don't have anyone running against Todd Akin.
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Mar 4, 2016 01:18
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I'm pretty sure Ben Carson could easily lose a senate run, but win the primary on name recognition alone.
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Mar 13, 2016 01:24
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oystertoadfish posted:incidentally daily kos elections' data guy did a democrat wet dream house map Montana and Alaska at large, without even winning the state for Clinton? Seems a bit tough.
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Oct 16, 2016 07:59
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| # ¿ May 13, 2024 22:34 |
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PleasingFungus posted:definitely feels like the polls are all over the place even in the last days of the election. time to get spooked? By "all over the place", the extreme outliers are statistical ties on one extreme, and hillary blowouts on the other. I'd count on Hilldawg and her senate peeps to be in pretty solid positions still.
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Nov 1, 2016 06:33
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