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Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Chadderbox posted:

Speaking as someone who has lived in Arizona for a long time, Sarah Palin may have a base of support but she would turn out Democrats at a level that the establishment wouldn't be very comfortable with. Not gonna happen.

Not to mention an alarming number of more moderate Republicans who are horrified by the thought of her holding public office again.

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Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005
poo poo. How competent is the California GOP?

Harris might as well run--she's never going to get that SCOTUS appointment everyone thinks she should get.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Jerry Manderbilt posted:

If it's anything, after the full results were in it's turned out that the GOP hasn't unseated an incumbent Democratic congressman since 1994. Kashkari was also a complete assclown of a candidate and went down in a landslide, even with very reduced turnout (though Brown did significantly better amongst white Californians than Obama did two years ago).

If anything Boxer was looking vulnerable for a while in 2010 against HP vulture CEO Fiorina, but she pulled through in the end.

So they're even less competent than the MA GOP, who at least just got a Republican governor elected (thanks, Martha Coakley!)

I just realized--I think 2016 will be the first time in like 8 years where Massachusetts has not had a Senate seat up for grabs (unless you're not counting this year when Ed Markey won in a walk).

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Nonsense posted:

Romney will be President some day, thus Hagan should run again. There is not really a tinge of "loser", it is a political myth.

Romney's lost twice on a national stage and once on the state level. Hagan lost a close election in a Republican year with monumentally lovely turnout.

There's a difference there.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Badger of Basra posted:

Examples to refute the loser myth: two people who lost again after having lost once.

Bqhatevwr, dude.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Nth Doctor posted:

Is he off to the Vermonty part of Massaschusetts now?

No, he's pretty much exhausted the opportunities for places that will tolerate his poo poo. Vermont's too liberal, Connecticut won't fall for the barn coat act (they're not as "live free of taxes" as New Hampshire), and Maine and Rhode Island have already got two established Senators.

I guess he'll have to look elsewhere :v:

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Joementum posted:

Barbara Boxer will not be running for re-election.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrhCFGCbPaI

Why did I think we already knew this? Did she announce it late last year?

Either way, it'll either be Gavin Newsom or Eric Garcetti.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

notthegoatseguy posted:

I really don't think it is baggage. People just don't care about carpetbagging, at least on the level of US Senate.

They do when it's Massachusetts and New Hampshire. :v:

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Franco Potente posted:

:siren: Senator Dan Coats (R-IN) not running for re-election :siren:

Unfortunately, with the Dem bench what it is in Indiana, I can't see them picking something up here.

Look forward to Senator Marlin Stutzman! :confuoot:

Oh God. Isn't Stutzman the loon who said "WE MUST GET SOMETHING OUT OF THE SHUTDOWN, BUT I DON'T KNOW WHAT" or something to that effect?

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Joementum posted:

Harry Reid will retire after this term, making Nevada a likely Republican gain in 2016.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqPWTECMIQo

Son of a bitch. Guess he saw the writing on the wall.

Plus, this makes Chuck loving Schumer Majority/Minority Leader, a choice that's arguably worse than Reid ever was.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Joementum posted:

Reid also endorsed former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto and spoke with her this morning, so that's your likely NV Dem Sen candidate.

Anyone know anything about her? Does she have a shot at winning (say Sandoval gets Mike Castle'd)?

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Joementum posted:

The AP story about Rubio's Presidential announcement says that his team is telling the RNC to recruit someone to fill his Senate seat, so it looks like he won't run for both spots.

What a chance for the Florida Democratic Party to redeem themse-AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA sorry, I just couldn't keep that going.

However, for the sake of argument, say that a miracle happens and the Dems don't nominate the political corpse of Charlie Crist or Alex "Oops, I hosed It Up Again" Sink. Is Rubio's seat winnable?

Fritz Coldcockin has issued a correction as of 16:22 on Apr 13, 2015

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

FlamingLiberal posted:

The FL Dems have pretty weak candidates. In all honestly it's been like 25 years since the FL Dems had anyone win a statewide election who wasn't Bill Nelson. In a presidential year you would think the Dems would have a good opportunity, but I think it's an uphill battle.

We're getting Wasserman-Schultz, aren't we?

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Is this a vanity exercise, or does Kirkpatrick actually have any kind of legitimate shot at beating that old bag of poo poo?

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005
She sounds like she has balls--a rare quality in a Democrat in a Republican district. The DSCC could definitely do worse than supporting her candidacy.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Franco Potente posted:

:siren: Sandoval not running for NV Senate :siren:

The NV Dems must be praising their pagan idols right about now.

Wow. Without Sandoval in the race, this is now at least a tossup if not a lean or likely D hold, right? Catherine Cortez Masto has to be the favorite against any other GOP nominee.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Joementum posted:

Rep. Joe Heck is running for NV Senate, probably the best non-Sandoval candidate the Republicans could recruit.

Also, fun story, Joe Heck is a General in the Army Reserves and was up for a promotion a couple years ago. These promotions require Senate confirmation and his was held up by a certain Senator from Nevada in retribution for McConnell stalling on nomination votes.

How does Cortez poll against him?

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Franco Potente posted:

As if Trump wasn't feast enough for this electoral cycle, Alan Grayson is running for FL Sen.


The state party would be wise to get well shut of him, that's for sure.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

De Nomolos posted:

Grayson looks like every big dumb guy I went to HS with that wanted to be a bully but was too stupid to even manage that.

Plus he's corrupt as poo poo, a lousy campaigner, and DU supports him, so there's three reasons to not back him.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

De Nomolos posted:

I'm not sure what's wrong with her aside from experience? She'd have a better chance and honestly, who are you going to find better except Rendell?

Why isn't he running? In a year where Hillary Clinton will most likely be the Democratic nominee for President, why wouldn't Rendell want to take a crack at the Senate race? He'll most likely never get a better shot.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005
Looking forward to Trump calling someone a smelly poopyface on the debate stage.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

GreyPowerVan posted:

I'm assuming his opponent wasn't literally a member of the Taliban, right :eng99:

Well, no, but he was a pretty vocal Tea Partier. Still, Grayson could have made his case much more effectively by just pointing out the crazy.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005
I would have preferred Democrat Charlie Crist as Governor/Senator than Rubio and Scott.

I know, I'm a heretic.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Feather posted:

She lost the gubernatorial race because: a) she apparently didn't think it was necessary to actually, y'know, campaign

Question: Have Alex Sink and Martha Coakley ever been seen in the same room together?

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

GalacticAcid posted:

Disinter Claude Pepper and endorse him.

I can't vote for a sexagenarian who practices celibacy!

Fritz Coldcockin has issued a correction as of 21:58 on Aug 26, 2015

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

The Nastier Nate posted:

Earlier in the year, when I assumed Pat Toomey would be facing off against Joe Sestak next year, I figured Toomey would be able to win with a slightly bigger margin than 2010, which was something like a 2% difference.

Then Katie McGinty entered the race and every Democract in PA from Philadelphia to Allegheny county lined up behind her, and in addition to that, Toomey voted for the Planned Parenthood defunding which hurts him. Now, the results of last nights statewide judicial elections ended in a republican spanking. This was an off-year where voter turnout was based on the non-contest for Philly mayor, local and county races.

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ENR_NEW/

I think that Toomey is done next year, as PA seems to be trending more and more blue. We were the only state in 2014 to flip a governor from R to D, partially because Tom Corbett was universally reviled, but also due to voter trends. And if dems ever get control of the redistricting and undo the lines that the GOP has drawn over the past 30, you will see our congressional seats and state senate control flip in the very next election.

If McGinty gets even decent coattails from Hillary then probably, yeah.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005
Seeing Scott Brown fail--again--in 2014 was one of the most satisfying things ever. With the exception of Obama's reelection and Karl Rove pooping his pants live on air, of course.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

FlamingLiberal posted:

Considering who they just elected Governor, and the whole Kim Davis fiasco, he's facing an uphill battle

They elected Bevin because of a 30% turnout rate; plus, isn't Jack Conway like universally hated?

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Yeah, people hate Bevin too, though. A lot of it was that the campaign became so negative almost nobody except the homophobes showed up. Like Conway won Louisville by a waaayyy lower margin than he should have, and he also refused to ever do retail politics because he was convinced it was all about money.

Jim Gray is incredibly popular in the actual city of Lexington. He won re-election in a landslide and Louisville is one of the most gay-friendly cities in the South (The percentage of our population that's openly gay is higher than New York or LA and 11th in the nation.) No Democrat has any chance in the South-Central part of the state or NKY outside of Covington so his path to victory is exciting the liberal base in Louisville and Lexington while getting the traditional Democrats who are turning red in Eastern Kentucky and the Purchase to look past his homosexuality and come back into the fold. It's not ideal but in this political climate, no Democrat will have an easy time. If we're going to lose we might as well lose without pretending to be Republican-lite.
Rand Paul isn't in a position of complete strength. He's not as popular at home as people in Washington and the East Coast pretend, and his Presidential campaign has opened himself to attacks that he does not care about the people of Kentucky beyond using the state as a stepping stone, something he is already vulnerable to as a non-native who moved here in his 20s (Kentucky is one of the most regionalist states there is) and a Duke graduate (I do not need to explain this one.) He still has the undeniable advantages of being from a different party than Obama and having regular sex with a woman.

I honestly wonder how it would go if a candidate ran a Bernie Sanders-style economic populist campaign in a state like Kentucky. We've already seen people respond to that on a national level--and the appeal actually crosses party lines in some cases. Talk about health care and income inequality--emphasize that the game is rigged to screw people who work for a living. People would respond to that.

I think if Gray's going to win, that's how he'll do it. Act like a liberal, not just a Democrat. Don't make the race about getting rid of Rand Paul and replacing him with a Democrat, because that'll just trigger the tribalism reflex voters in Kentucky have. Make it about a guy who doesn't give a poo poo about the state vs. a guy who genuinely wants to do good by the people who elected him.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

This needs to happen.

Mostly because a guy named Hogg can't be Senator next to a woman who castrated them for a living.

Also, there is a preponderance of people running for that seat with last names ending in "-sack".

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Riptor posted:

someone posted in USPOL that Blunt in MO is loving his race up royally by apparently having lied about his draft status during the vietnam war. Would be interesting if that turns to a Dem pickup

Is there even anyone to run against him? Nixon's pretty unpopular in Missouri right now if I recall correctly.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Mitt Romney posted:

If the GOP blocks the nomination I would say that these Senators re-election prospects shrink:
  • Mark Kirk IL
  • Ron Johnson WI
  • Pat Toomey PA
  • Rob Portman OH
  • Kelly Ayotte NH
  • Roy Blunt MO (maybe)
  • FL
  • Possibly NC

Kirk and Johnson are p. much gone. Other than that, I don't know. Depends on the strength of McGinty's campaign in PA and whether the NH Dems can find someone to beat Ayotte. Missouri is an awful state and will re-elect Blunt regardless of what he does, and Rob Portman is either going to get reelected or end up on the Republican ticket for VP this year.

Sandoval not running in NV means that that seat remains a tossup for Democrats instead of a likely R, and Catherine Cortez-Masto has Harry Reid's blessing, so she should at least be well-funded.

Fritz Coldcockin has issued a correction as of 14:58 on Feb 15, 2016

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Oh my God.

I lost my mom to this poo poo a few months ago...I can only imagine what she's going through.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

They'd campaign for him, but they wouldn't support him for the Leader post because Chuck Schumer is their homeboy.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Holy loving poo poo.

Ironic, I suppose, that she is missing both her legs, since Max Cleland was too and he got smeared the same way.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

FlamingLiberal posted:

That race was so depressing. Then again it was merely a preview of the 2004 presidential race.

I think that iconic picture of that horrible woman at the RNC wearing that smarmy Purple Heart bandaid really summed it up.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

My Imaginary GF posted:

Come on, thats pretty drat funny. Like, you would not loving believe how many great jokes one can make at Duckworth's expense.

For instance, what's a Duckworth these days?

Yeah, it's real fuckin' hilarious.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:

Kirk just said he'd meet with Garland

It begins :unsmigghh:

Kirk is losing his seat anyway, so this is his last-ditch attempt to stop Duckworth from taking it.

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

Holy loving poo poo.

What on earth makes you think it's appropriate to say this :psyduck: If he doesn't retract it, McGinty/whoever will kneecap him with it for the rest of the election season. Refusing to consider the sitting President's SCOTUS nominee because it happens to be the last year of his term.

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Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005
Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS) has called for hearings on the Garland nomination.

Seems that it's more than just the moderates who think that the Senate should be doing their jobs.

Either that, or he's reading the same polls we are and going "if we don't do this we'll be in the minority again in November".

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