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CubsWoo posted:I mentioned this in the midterm aftermath, but the only serious candidates on the R side will be Christie, Walker, Jeb and maybe Jindal or Romney (who I don't think will run.) Cruz is good at making noise and raising money but not much else, Rubio needs another term in the Senate and possibly a term or two as FLGOV before running (could be an interesting VP pick, though) and Paul won't risk his seat if he has to choose between the two. I think counting Cruz out is a bit harsh. Not that he would have a shot at winning the nomination, but he could certainly play spoiler here and there along with affecting the entire rhetorical environment, as others have mentioned. Santorum '12 demonstrated that the days of goofy ultraconservative evangelicals being competetive with much more highly-qualified moderates are far from over. You may also be overrating how much Rand cares about his Senate seat. It's not as if he has been a super active legislator, and almost everything he's done with the seat seems geared toward raising his national notoriety. He hasn't assumed a full-fledged attack-dog role against the Republican establishment the way Cruz has, sure, which some may interpret as a cautious approach to accrue influence in the Senate, but it could just be that he is not as crazy as Ted. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 02:02 on Nov 11, 2014 |
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Nov 11, 2014 01:52
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Mitt Romney posted:
GoP base is already motivated, so I would think this would mostly help the Democrats unless the GoP manages to spin it into scaring the working class badly enough. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 04:16 on Nov 11, 2014 |
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Nov 11, 2014 04:14
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De Nomolos posted:He wouldn't want to cross the Clinton's this early in his career. Are these no-hope, no-threat, name-boosting primary runs really considered "crossing" anybody, though? I have a hard time seeing why Billary would be offended by a feel-good primary campaign that would probably end before any actual primary votes were cast PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 04:39 on Nov 11, 2014 |
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Nov 11, 2014 04:37
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I always forget Santorum was a real Senator. He feels like he should be one of those guys who try to parlay a televangelist career or a successful dental practice into a presidential run. Fulchrum posted:Yeah, optics is important. Which is why its pretty good Hilary doesn't look 69, she looks like this. I saw Hillary in person a couple of weeks ago. She looked fine and vigorous. Better than many people in their mid-50s. Most of the GoP's younger guys do not have a good shot at the nomination, besides maybe Walker. The most prominent of their middle-aged guys (Christie) is fat and ugly. Pence could maybe be a problem, given that he looks like somebody you'd cast to play the President in a Lifetime drama. Regardless, I don't think age will be as big an issue for Hillary as it was for McCain. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 05:33 on Nov 12, 2014 |
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Nov 12, 2014 05:26
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SedanChair posted:I think news anchor standards will probably be at play. Old man reporters are "rugged," old woman reporters are "oh wow why are you forcing me to look at you? Just hide from my vision already, crone." Sure, but it is mostly men that have this reaction, and the Democrats were already going to be counting on another overwhelming gender gap. If conservative media fixates on the old idea that men will only vote for women they want to sleep with and start pounding the "wow she Putting one of their own wimmen on the ticket might free them up a bit in this regard (provided said woman is not as terrible as Palin), but I can't think of many viable options there besides Martinez. Anyway, there's a reason people take notice when a woman as youthful-looking and hot as, say, Gillibrand is elected to a senior political office, which is that it is far from being the rule. Being unattractive (or having aged out of being attractive, like Hillary) does not cripple a woman's electoral prospects unless she is counting on winning the male vote for some reason. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 05:51 on Nov 12, 2014 |
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Nov 12, 2014 05:47
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Chantilly Say posted:Out of curiosity, does anyone know how Thatcher dealt with that issue? She was 54 when she became PM and 65 at the end of her tenure at 10 Downing, so younger than we're talking about, but it was the 1980s so standards might have been different. I would think (though as an american I may be talking out my rear end) that the nature of the parliamentary system makes it less of an issue for somebody like Thatcher or Merkel, in general. Presidential races are a whole different level of pomp, visibility and mano-a-mano-ness compared to parliamentary general elections and coalition-building. StabbinHobo posted:is joe actually gonna go for it? Joe has gotta know he can't win. There hasn't been much positive national buzz about him since he ate Paul Ryan, and he keeps having those "gaffes" where he tells the truth about stuff we're supposed to be ignoring. That said, it might be nice if Joe mounts a primary campaign and stays on the scene long enough to play attack-dog, allowing Hillary to play the even keel. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 06:26 on Nov 12, 2014 |
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Nov 12, 2014 06:24
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Joementum posted:The host of Fuckabee looks to be back in the race, via Republican Whisperer Robert Costa. Think he could make waves? His bugfuck ultraconservative credentials are pretty unimpeachable except to the very most deranged of Tea Party loons, and he retains a lot of that "well, he seems like a nice guy!" reputation among Republicans that Cruz lacks. And he is not a Messikan. Don't know if that is enough to overcome the weaknesses demonstrated in 2008 (bad fundraising and poor organizational control) in what is liable to be a tougher field
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Nov 12, 2014 17:09
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I hadn't heard that Kasich was seriously mulling a run yet. He scares me more thank Walker, I think. Similar ~relative~ moderate rep, passes the eyeball test better, more (and more varied) experience, proven ability to cross traditional demographic lines, a better record, and more home-state backing. He does often seem pretty stiff when he goes on camera, but Hillary isn't going to exploit that as well as Obama or Bill would. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 19:36 on Nov 12, 2014 |
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Nov 12, 2014 19:34
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Huntsman 4/5, would bang again. Too bad about the Burn The Poor fiscal policy Huntsman is the candidate the GoP needs, being the one guy who could absolutely pull away a huge chunk of those affluent socially-liberal/fiscally-indifferent white Democratic voters the GoP wants. I doubt it was his climate change position that killed his candidacy, though, considering that McCain got the nomination*. It was the lack of name-recognition, lack establishment or media allies (Fox and the other cable news stations treated him as a joke candidate no matter what he did) and being a secret chinee. *granted, that was in a very different political climate, but it showed that the establishment does not mind lining up behind an environmental moderate regardless of what the conservative base thinks. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 04:39 on Nov 13, 2014 |
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Nov 13, 2014 04:36
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Dr.Zeppelin posted:Some people were calling that nomination a masterstroke on Obama's part because of how he was nullifying his most dangerous would-be 2012 rival. Maybe the same reason the Huntsman-for-SecState gossip after 2012 never led to anything in real life. Less "He's a Republican!", more "that would give him traction for 2016" PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 07:24 on Nov 13, 2014 |
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Nov 13, 2014 07:21
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FlamingLiberal posted:Jeb is going to get destroyed in the primaries trying to move to the right on things like immigration and education. I think Jeb's team will have learned the necessary lessons from Romney '12 and will stay moderate on the things Jeb is moderate on. He's moderate on fewer things than Huntsman, Christie or Giuliani in the first place (even if they're pretty big hot-buttons) and still comfortably to the right of any Hillary on any of those. Ultimately I think being a relative moderate in a couple of areas will be less of an issue for him than aesthetics, demeanor, name-recognition and challenges from other moderates (Walker?) with less baggage.
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Jan 2, 2015 03:16
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Apollo_Creed posted:So what is the most likely path to the republican nomination for 2016? The establishment is aware that they need a moderate and will throw all of their money and influence in that direction. The question is whether they will arrive at some early pseudo-consensus as to which moderate they want or whether their support will be split. Even if the ultra-conservatives can find one figure to consolidate around, there aren't enough ultra-conservative votes in the deep South and the high plains to overcome the rest of the country unless the moderate vote is deeply divided. It helps that the more fringe guys who might run are either wildly inexperienced (Cruz and Rand) or washed up (Huckabee and Santorum. Though I've heard Huckabee is considered a Rino now). PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 08:52 on Jan 2, 2015 |
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Jan 2, 2015 08:43
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Caros posted:Please tell me that washed up santorum was intentional. aw man
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Jan 2, 2015 10:36
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:Also calling it now paradol ex style: my prediction is that Huckabee manages to rally the Republican right behind him and win the primaries against Jeb "Mexican" Bush and then lose to clinton If I were Reince, I might be back-channel encouraging Huckabee to run so that there would be a nonthreat to help split up the hard-right vote and deny Cruz/Rand their natural constituencies. Don't think Jeb will have trouble with those two guys anyway, though. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 05:55 on Jan 4, 2015 |
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Jan 4, 2015 05:49
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ufarn posted:Reminder that Mike Huckabee's son literally killed a puppy. Rednecks kill dogs for fun all the time, so that might actually help his chances in some voting precincts PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 23:25 on Jan 13, 2015 |
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Jan 13, 2015 23:18
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campaign cycles should really include a circuit of First Lady Debates
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Jan 14, 2015 00:52
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LBJ might of looked like poo poo in still photography, but he could come off fine on video (and presumably in person, given his track record in legislating and loving). kind of a Reverse Nixon.
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Jan 14, 2015 01:05
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No Kasich or Haslam on that New Hampshire list, which is good. Tougher outs for Hillary than most of their hopefuls. FMguru posted:She's clearly running for the VP slot under the argument that hey you can't just send up a ticket of two well-fed white dudes against the first woman candidate for President, you gotta have some gender diversity on the ticket, just think of the optics. Ya reckon she's dumb enough to think they'd pick her over Martinez or Haley? Probably just a publicity campaign to maintain her public profile for california-related ambitions.
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Jan 14, 2015 07:18
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Christie's secret primary plan is to hit the campaign trail while cosplaying as Billy Bob from Varsity Blues, truck and all. ain't no point trying to go Texan if you ain't gonna go Full Texan
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Jan 15, 2015 14:49
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swampcow posted:http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/6477700 Bold executive actions seemed to help a lot. We'll just have to see whether this holds up after he vetoes the Free Steak and Ice Cream American Freedom Forever Act. Though the bills the GoP has chosen to push as part of this tactic (so far) are things that affect the working class so directly that the strategists' usual "Them stiffs don't pay attention to the content of a bill. Just name it something that sounds too good to veto" thesis might not hold. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 02:59 on Jan 16, 2015 |
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Jan 16, 2015 02:53
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VanSandman posted:I'm desperately hoping a crowd of second- and third- tier candidates take a look at the field, realize this is crazy enough to be anyone's ball game, and we go full on looney-tunes by the time Iowa rolls around. Reince will murder John Bolton with a shovel
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Jan 17, 2015 17:04
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celeron 300a posted:And the sitting two-term vice president isn't even being considered? I Biden has fine credentials and is liked by plenty of liberals (the main strike against him from the left is his status as a staunch drug warrior, the War on Drugs being more or less the original sin of his whole generation of politicians.). But to the electorate at large, he's a hokey joke politician and a burden to the current administration. I don't think there has been much positive mainstream buzz about him since right after his debate against Ryan. He is also pretty drat old. If elected, he would be several years older at inauguration than Reagan or Harrison. Fertile attack ground there. Carter/Mondale vs Bush/Dole 2016 PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 02:42 on Jan 21, 2015 |
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Jan 21, 2015 02:36
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that Joe Biden will be at the first official democratic primary debate (official being defined as organized by the DNC and carried by a major tv network).
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Ammat The Ankh posted:Who's doing the SOTU GOP response? Any of the likely contenders (or "contenders")? Ernst, so no.
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Jan 21, 2015 03:07
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Cliff Racer posted:A woman who's election season claim to fame was personally being Bill Clinton's wife. to be fair, being bill clinton's wife is a lot harder than castrating (most) farm animals
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Jan 21, 2015 03:56
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like all you got to do with cattle is wrassle the bullcalves to the ground and pin them while your partner slips a band around their nuts. long as you do it when they're around 3months/300lbs or smaller, it is real easy. I never done hogs but I imagine it is even easier as long as you don't wait too long
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Jan 21, 2015 04:05
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sullat posted:He didn't do much in the 2008 primaries. Even Edwards had more traction than he did. a sitting vice-president has more visibility and can round up more money (even with Hilary sitting on the main democratic donor streams) than a small-state Senator with two failed presidential runs already on his resume.
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Jan 21, 2015 21:55
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Cigar Aficionado posted:If Biden, Warren, O'Malley, and Cuomo all opt not to run, what does the Democratic primary even look like? Hillary having 1 on 1 debates with Bernie Sanders? It will be a stark contrast to the ridiculously swollen GOP primary, anyway. If Sanders is coming at her from the left, they should probably dig up at least one crusty Blue Dog to come at her from the right, giving her the opportunity to defend and please the base. Beating up on Bernie for several months straight wouldn't particularly impress anybody who wasn't already gonna vote Republican. Throw some crochety no-way-in-hell candidate like Rendell in there and get him to holler dated slogans that will make her look cool and progressive by comparison. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 05:26 on Jan 22, 2015 |
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Jan 22, 2015 05:24
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joeburz posted:Hillary + Castro transitioning into first Latino prez in 2024. if electing BARUCH HOOSAYNE OOGABOOGA dint kill off these sumbiches, one of them lil Castro fellers aint gonna do it. we are just gonna have to wait for natural redneck die-off due to reproductive ineptitude
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Jan 22, 2015 18:58
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pork-based chili is terrble at least use the gatdamn moose chili recipe you're always goin on about, Palin
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Jan 24, 2015 20:08
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will Palin stop being a thing once she has aged out of being considered remotely attractive (even by her partisans) or can she keep Thatchering along?
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Jan 24, 2015 23:29
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William Bear posted:Thinking about it some more, if Republicans in real life were like Aaron Sorkin Reasonable Republicans they'd probably nominate some boring academic who happens to be Republican. Like Greg Mankiw. it's not like Sorkin Republicans don't exist in places of power. Kasich, Haslam and Martinez all fit the bill (Moderates willing to compromise on essential matters, able to cross the demographic divides that have been killing their party lately). And Huntsman was more or less a younger version of Alan Alda's republican presidential nominee from the West Wing, in that he's just a Third Way democrat with a somewhat heightened desire to set fire to the poor. All of these people can win elections in this country. But in the campaigning offseason, reasonable people can't generate the same buzz as Senator/former fishing lure salesman Quickdraw McGraw from Clusterfuck County, Dixie. In the soundbyte era, the democrats' blandness is a their biggest strength and their biggest weakness. Less buzz, fewer self-immolations. I still expect at least one bland, non-Walker midwestern governor to enter the race and outlast Cruz, Paul, etc. Not sure whether it will be kasich or pence or what.
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Jan 25, 2015 00:42
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Someone threw up a map in the chat thread that showed Hilary winning even if Illinois, Nevada, Colorado and Florida flipped to republican. That was a joke thing I did when MIGF was threatening an illinois-for-Jeb tantrum over Obama's library decision. To demonstrate that it that would not be a make-or-break even in a relatively favorable scenario for the Republicans. Of course Illinois would not actually go red. Just subsititute in Ohio or a combination of Wisconsin and Iowa.
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Jan 26, 2015 21:50
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Rand's seat is pretty safe should he choose to defend it this ain't pennsylvania: the big cities are not big enough to outvote the countryside by themselves. If he holds Covington, the Pennyrile, the outer Bluegrass - all areas where his numbers are okay-to-good - and maintains some minor toehold in the mountains. he is fine. I'm afraid america is stuck with Senator Rand Paul for a good while, barring some unexpected shenanigans in the Presidential race.
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Jan 27, 2015 07:30
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bpower posted:Huh, that's weird. I think I love...Megyn Kelly. which South did Huckabee grow up in where people don't swear
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Jan 29, 2015 21:05
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Jamelle Bouie over at Slate believes his plan will be to double down on political polarization and try to get out the white vote. good luck winning any of the midwestern states that actually have black people in 'em, Scott
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Jan 30, 2015 00:26
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scott walker frightened away from debate stage by the audience: the collected ghosts of the Iron Brigade
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Jan 30, 2015 00:55
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Mitt Romney: Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
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Jan 30, 2015 18:45
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Mitt Romney: Assistant Secretary of Dog Transportation
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Jan 31, 2015 03:20
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Gyges posted:Because as much as the GOP likes to discount education, they're not going to think a guy who only has a High School diploma is good enough. Intellectual heavy weights like Sara Palin and Rick Perry have college degrees. The whole point of being anti-intellectual is to counter all that science and knowledge that disagrees with their positions, not because they actually don't like education. It's great for them and their kids, just not "those" people. I think Walker's background will hurt him, but I don't know that the lack of education will be the biggest thing. Voters - especially Republican voters - like their candidates' resumes to include some straightforward, admired professions. CEO, officer, farmer, rancher, football coach, reverend, all things that point to experience ~running stuff~ while strengthening the candidate's stance as an outsider in relation to Big Gummint. People might not understand what-all Mitt and Jeb's private equity dealings entail, but at least they can go "I'm a businessman!", which the GoP base will respect. Scott Walker is a government mandarin who, prior to running for governor, spent his whole adult life buried in the arcane recesses of the public sector. His primary opponents are going to hammer him over his relative lack of experience in any kind of private enterprise.
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Feb 1, 2015 17:38
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Foo posted:Does Christie actually even want to run for President? I got from Double Down: Game Change 2012 that he never really warmed to the idea of running or being president. He seems like one of those guys who has wanted to be President since he was a lil' kid, yeah. Whether he decides it is still worth it once he takes a long look at how hard it'll be to fight through the Jebs and Walkers and Kochs and corruption allegations and foaming-at-the-mouth Tea Party morons is another matter. Maybe he'll just keep putting it off until he dies of some fat people ailment.
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Feb 3, 2015 19:43
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