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pmchem posted:what database of play/game data are you using? is it free? if you're using python based ML tools I'd be interested in seeing your source sometime. fun stuff. Stat pulls were done using nfldb on a pythonxy install (though I now recommend Anaconda to others), and were cleaned/consolidated there. Modeling and additional data wrangling was done in R, using the mgcv package for GAMs, the randomForest package for random forest models, and LearnBayes for calculating posterior distributions for individual players (compared to league-average). I'll release most of the Python and R scipts once I actually getting around to writing things up for you folks.
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Jan 2, 2016 21:47
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I literally don't understand what you're even talking about
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Jan 3, 2016 00:20
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I like when the football mans score the touchdowns and also when the defense guys do exciting things
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Jan 3, 2016 01:45
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Speaking of defense guys, do you folks like the Texans D/ST or the Bengals D/ST this week? Texans look like they've got a higher ceiling, while the Bengals look to me like they'd be more reliable. Fantasy Pros has the Bengals ranked higher, too, but ESPN's projections (lol I know) have the Texans and Bengals tied on expected points.
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Jan 3, 2016 03:18
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Spoeank posted:Damning with faint praise. zach zenner #1 overall pick 2017
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Jan 3, 2016 04:29
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I just realized I have now won my primary cash league three years in a row. All twelve team leagues, for that matter. If fantasy football wasn't mostly random luck I'd be real loving smug, y'all.
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Jan 3, 2016 04:50
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Can't believe I'm gonna win my league when the only players still on my roster that I drafted are Newton, Marshall, and Gronk.
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Jan 3, 2016 13:11
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Tannyhills against NE or Carr Against KC in my championship game. Kelce vs Oakland or Cobb vs Vikings for my Flex position. WR PPR league 
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Jan 3, 2016 15:44
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Dexo posted:Tannyhills against NE or Carr Against KC in my championship game. Carr certainly Kelce maybe?
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Jan 3, 2016 18:26
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Woodhead, L. Miller or Cameron Artis-Payne? Normally I'd play Miller or Woodhead over C-AP. But with Whitaker out C-AP looks to get a bigger workload PLUS I don't like Woodhead (@Denver) or Miller (@NE) matchups. And defense. Redskins @ Dallas or Colts @ Tennessee. I have the Redskins in now... figure that one might be a coin flip.
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Jan 3, 2016 18:41
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Playing week 17 is loving garbage. Even more loving garbage with 4k on the line. Im getting drunk that being said Russ or Bort? I have Russ in right now actually gently caress it Ill sink with Bort. I know he wont get randomly taken out. He has weapons. all aboard bitch the_american_dream fucked around with this message at 18:55 on Jan 3, 2016 |
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Jan 3, 2016 18:52
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Jesus Christ, $4000 with a Week 17 championship? Yeah that calls for alcohol
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Jan 3, 2016 18:55
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Its a best record overall. Im tied with the other 11-5 guy and have the tiebreaker over him but he has a cupcake today while im up against Ben/Antonio. My last year in the league way too loving expensive and stressful
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Jan 3, 2016 18:57
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BonoMan posted:Jesus Christ, $4000 with a Week 17 championship? Yeah that calls for alcohol Yeah. I'm up for 1000 with a 2 week championship. poo poo loving sucks. I'm not even gonna watch any games or Fantasy besides the Bears game today. Jordan Reed potentially being rested has me sick.
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Jan 3, 2016 19:07
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Well i can just go ahead and relax as my team looks so far like theyre as interested in Week 17 as I am. Ah well 2nd prize isnt too shabby 
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Jan 3, 2016 19:51
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Can't wait to activate my "2nd-half Blake Bortles" trap card on these mother fuckers!
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Jan 3, 2016 20:02
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the_american_dream posted:Well i can just go ahead and relax as my team looks so far like theyre as interested in Week 17 as I am. Ah well 2nd prize isnt too shabby Yep, no shame in that
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Jan 3, 2016 20:08
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maniacripper posted:Can't wait to activate my "2nd-half Blake Bortles" trap card on these mother fuckers! same
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Jan 3, 2016 20:11
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Uh so is Gronk not playing? WOULDA BEEN NICE TO KNOW edit: opponent has Deangelo Williams, so that's nice at least. BonoMan fucked around with this message at 20:24 on Jan 3, 2016 |
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Jan 3, 2016 20:20
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Well this is just horrific timing for Bort to put up his worst fantasy game of the year. Shouldve rolled Russ afterall.
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Jan 3, 2016 21:16
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Everyone still playing should tell their league to stop being loving retards and not play week 17.
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Jan 3, 2016 21:58
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Should have loving played Tannyhills I lied btw
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Jan 3, 2016 22:00
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Welp my team has taken a huge poo poo the last two weeks and now I'm down 5 points with my AP to their MIN D/ST.
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Jan 4, 2016 01:09
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if he plays i actually like your chances but then literally every call ive made for me and a friend has been wrong today so ymmv
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Jan 4, 2016 01:15
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Hahahhahahha They pulled Russel Willson and Doug Baldwin. So long as Seferian Jenkins doesn't score in the next 2 minutes I win my championship.
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Jan 4, 2016 01:25
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Dexo posted:Hahahhahahha They pulled Russel Willson and Doug Baldwin. So long as Seferian Jenkins doesn't score in the next 2 minutes I win my championship. That may have won my championship for me too. Opponent has Wilson and Baldwin. I'm up 29 and he just has Crosby to play. Also, Cam loving Newton. Goddamn I love you. 36 points standard scoring in week 17. loving Fantasy MVP right there. edit: Also I ended up playing Artis-Payne over Woodhead, D. Brown and Lamar Miller. Turned out to be the right call! In fact the ONLY miscall I made in my finale lineup was playing the Redskins D over the Colts D and that just ended up being a 2 point differential. BonoMan fucked around with this message at 02:04 on Jan 4, 2016 |
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Jan 4, 2016 01:59
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Congrats fellow week 17ers 
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Jan 4, 2016 04:07
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the_american_dream posted:Congrats fellow week 17ers  Week 17 Bullshit  All Wilson needed was 3 more yards. and all Baldwin needed was one more catch. Really hope no other adjustments happen. I already lost 5 points due to some post game adjustments. Dexo fucked around with this message at 04:40 on Jan 4, 2016 |
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Jan 4, 2016 04:37
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Remember when some goon tried to say delanie walker wasn't good 94 catches 1,088 yards 6 touchdowns Lol
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Jan 4, 2016 04:37
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Wow. I put up 45 points this week and still won our championship. Sitting the Texans D/ST, Stafford, and J. Matthews was clearly the wrong choice. (But the Bengals, Bortles, and D. Baldwin looked so good...)
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Jan 4, 2016 04:42
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still cant get over Bort completely making GBS threads the bed but luckily playing him over Russ wasnt why I lost
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Jan 4, 2016 05:03
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Metapod posted:Remember when some goon tried to say delanie walker wasn't good iirc they were saying something like a TE with a rookie QB wouldn't do well or something.
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Jan 4, 2016 05:37
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Metapod posted:Remember when some goon tried to say delanie walker wasn't good And he hadn't dropped a pass until a couple of weeks ago or something like that.
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Jan 4, 2016 07:20
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Metapod posted:Remember when some goon tried to say delanie walker wasn't good The best thing about it is he plays for the Titans so my league still won't give a gently caress about him and i'll have him again.
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Jan 4, 2016 07:50
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VietCampo posted:iirc they were saying something like a TE with a rookie QB wouldn't do well or something. Vaguely remember this as two separate things. I think someone did post a stat that no tight end with a rookie QB had cleared 70 fantasy points (or something like that).
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Jan 4, 2016 12:46
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RVProfootballer posted:Vaguely remember this as two separate things. I think someone did post a stat that no tight end with a rookie QB had cleared 70 fantasy points (or something like that). I believe that point was in a discussion about "safety blanket TEs" being a myth. Which statistically was correct iirc.
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Jan 4, 2016 17:45
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RVProfootballer posted:Vaguely remember this as two separate things. I think someone did post a stat that no tight end with a rookie QB had cleared 70 fantasy points (or something like that). I dug up that there had only been two usable rookie TEs ever (Gronk and Ditka, so... Gronk) but I'm not sure where I posted that stat & I can't find it now, but there was a whole thing about don't trust Titans not even Delanie Walker, too.
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Jan 4, 2016 17:48
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Spoeank posted:I dug up that there had only been two usable rookie TEs ever (Gronk and Ditka, so... Gronk) but I'm not sure where I posted that stat & I can't find it now, but there was a whole thing about don't trust Titans not even Delanie Walker, too. It wasn't the TE that was the rookie, it was the rookie QB throwing to the TE that sunk the value. The argument was that regardless of Delanie Walker being good or not, no rookie QB ever produced a really fantasy-relevant TE. Basically, this, MacheteZombie posted:I believe that point was in a discussion about "safety blanket TEs" being a myth. Which statistically was correct iirc. Not only do rookie QBs not target their TEs more than non-rookie QBs, they targeted them less (IIRC). Then I thought the whole "Delanie Walker is a tire fire tight end" or whatever was separate and distinct, hah. Anyway, if we're making fun of our awful predictions, I was so hyped for Bradford being a top 5 QB, and there being no way Brady was better than a back end QB1. I also, in like week 13 or something, made fun of people dropping Lacy for guys like Spiller... glad I randomly didn't say Hightower, because I absolutely would have, and whoops  Also shout out to Aaron Rodgers for being godawful after I burned a first round pick in a 6 pt passing TD, -3 interception league. Managed 2nd despite that, but wish he had picked another season to break his streak of being a top 2 QB.
sourdough fucked around with this message at 19:47 on Jan 4, 2016 |
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Jan 4, 2016 19:43
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ALFbrot posted:I was down heading into Monday Night with only Denver's defense left to play. At the end of the fourth quarter, I was still down ~1 point. Luckily, Brandon McManus had one of the worst shanks I've ever seen and sent the game to OT. Denver managed to end the game with its only turnover, and so the last play of the fantasy football season handed me a one-point championship win Spoeank posted:ruh roh Lmao, I JUST found out that this hosed me over and I lost.
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Jan 4, 2016 19:52
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Ouch. Is it better to have won but then lost, than never to have won at all?
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Jan 6, 2016 17:01
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