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District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

Spoeank posted:

I had Wilson as my #3 QB (Luck/Rodgers/Wilson) and apparently so does ESPN so what I'm saying is I guess I need a new #3...?

How much better would you feel with Wilson over like the next 10 guys? I wouldn't be mad if he fell to me, but I'll be damned if I target Russell Wilson. Brees and Manning feel like higher floor, safer picks. Cam, Tannehill, Stafford, Bradford, and Kaep all have much higher ceilings.

I'm excited for Abdullah in Detroit and Agholor in Philly. I'll probably go for Jordan Matthews too. Riley Cooper is hot garbage, and whoever is the #1 receiver is fantasy gold.

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District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
I think you're better off ignoring fantasy specific news and advise for as long as possible in the offseason. I prefer checking up on real actual football news and moves, especially coaching changes. This has helped me avoid hype train gently caress bois like CJ Spiller and Montee Ball.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

spacejung posted:

Teletubbies endurance marathon (Netflix has 1 season of 13 episodes so you may need to repeat a few cycles), no food or drink permitted other than Xanax and alcohol, reverse draft order determined by sequence of who falls asleep or leaves. I recommend securing a luxury hotel suite for this so the contest can be waged on neutral ground.

I like this guy

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
2 kicker league is my nightmare. My main league went no kickers last year and it loving rules.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

MrSargent posted:

I can't remember if guys like Jeremy Hill and CJ Anderson were being talked about pre draft last year but I was interested in any comparable picks I could target late this year.

Yes, we were beating the drum pretty hard in the 2014 thread for Jeremy Hill. Lines were drawn. Battles were fought. However, it was more Jeremy Hill is the next Jesus Christ vs. Jeremy Hill is pretty good. The closest thing to Hill in my mind is Abdullah, but the hype started early and he's going higher than Hill was going last year.

Carlos Hyde is going to be a loving stud IMO. As far as being a quality runner without a defined role as full time 3 down starter, Hyde is similar to Hill last year. Hyde is such a better runner than anyone else on that roster, he'll shake out to the top, just like Hill.

No one was on CJ Anderson pre-draft, but a lot of us were on Montee Ball as a lovely RB1. If you were down on Ball, Ronnie Hillman was the most obvious choice, and by the way, Hillman was very productive when healthy. Anderson only took over because Hillman got hurt. So you have Anderson, Ball, Hillman and to a lesser degree Juwan Thompson who could all become productive with playing time. That's not a guy I'm drafting in the 1st. I don't like Ball as a football player, so Hillman would be my lottery ticket there.

To a much lesser degree, Frank Gore is a guy I'm watching. He's 32 and has a million carries. If he breaks down mid-season, Josh Robinson could be 2nd half type CJ Anderson guy.

These are all long shots, but so was CJ Anderson. Also keep an eye on Dallas. They have a pile of poo poo at RB. If it's not Randle, I don't know who it will be, and it might not even be a guy on the roster now.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
I think Emmanuel Sanders turned out to be more talented than anyone expected. There was talk last offseason because Latimer was a high draft pick and Sanders was never special in Pittsburgh. Sanders is incredible. I don't see any way Latimer overtakes him without an injury and a Kubiak offense isn't going to put up fantasy relevant numbers for WR3

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
Ok, I've got a keeper question.

12 team, 0.5PPR, QB/2RB/2WR/TE/1WRT, 3 Keepers, $200 Auction

Keeper min is $10. There's inflation, so your keepers cost a little more each year. RB's and top talent go for substantially more in this league than the guides say.

I have Demaryius Thomas for $22, Demarco Murray for $50, Jeremy Hill for $10, Ingram for $10, Randle for $10, and Kelce for $10

I'm definitely keeping Hill and Thomas. My issue is how to play my 3rd keeper. For the record, here are the available top 20 RB's that will not be kept:

Arian Foster
Justin Forsett
Melvin Gordon
whichever two of Murray/Ingram/Randle I don't keep

Normally I'd keep Ingram because Murray would be a $50 or less type player anyway, but with the lack of RB talent, I could see him going for $60-70. If I keep Ingram, I can easily get a 2nd Top 10 WR to pair with Demaryius, and a top 25 WR to play at flex. I'd also have budget to grab desirable potential young studs like Abdullah and Agholor on my bench. If I keep Murray, I'm probably "stuck" with a pair of top 25's at WR2 and flex, and my bench gets thinner.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
CJ Anderson was an undrafted free agent has 8 starts and 186 carries in his NFL career

All aboard!!

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

89 posted:




I like to think I'll hit on one of the combination of my late licks of CJ Spiller, Gio, and Foster

Jimmy dropped the ball, coulda had AP, McCoy and ODB

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
It's even worse than that, he's going in the 1st. Currently 9 overall on Fantasy Pros, RB6. Being drafted ahead of Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, ODB, Calvin Johnson, Matt Forte, Demarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, Jordy Nelson, and AJ Green.

We have this discussion every year. It's not that I wouldn't want CJ on my team, but not in the first. You don't bank on a career year from a 1st round pick. You can replace Anderson with Spiller and I made this same argument two years ago. It actually feels very familiar, because you can take Chip Kelly RB1 and Forte at the 1st round turn this year too!

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
It's only preseason, but I'm higher on Ryan Mathews now. He looked really good. I will not be surprised to see something very close to 50/40/10 Demarco/Mathews/Sproles. Sproles looked awesome as always.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
Davante Adams is gonna be money, and our keepers in my main league are due in 8 hours, and I hope the guy with him on his team doesn't check the news today

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
I wouldn't even want to play in a league that bad. It wouldn't be fun, unless it was like a $1k buy in and I could win a bunch of cool money.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

LmaoTheKid posted:

Enjoy! (I'm not touching any of them unless it's insane value)

Ryan Mathews is going in the 8th, and if it's anywhere near an even time share that makes him an RB2, flex option at the least. That's insane value IMO. Also if Demarco misses a game he'd be an RB1.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

jabro posted:

Gotta take your fake football serious yo.

He says in an internet thread dedicated to fantasy football

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
Keeper question:

0.5PPR $200 auction league

$44 for Antonio Brown

or

$10 for Mark Ingram

I'm already keeping Demaryius and Hill for $32 total. The top running back available will be Justin Forsett, so it's kinna grim outchea

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
Foster is the perfect kind of player to draft for your bench. It's a smart move to go after as many high upside guys as possible for your bench and see who pans out IMO. Let it shake out after a few weeks and cut the Zach Sudfields of 2015 and move on. Even if you only get him for 5 weeks, that's an RB1 for 5 weeks. That's more valuable than some slightly better than replacement WR you can use 2 weeks to cover byes.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
I'm thinking that part of the Eagles strategy for "healing" Demarco will be a deeper timeshare than fantasy people are expecting.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

Vando posted:

One thing I've found with auctions is, if most people are unfamiliar with the format, they'll tend to bid too conservatively out of the gate. If you see this and can exploit it (having solid ideas of player values is a big help, grab a Beersheet), then you could walk away with two top 5 RBs before anyone realises what happened.

This might be anecdotal to an extent, but it worked in my last 4 auctions. It has the added bonus of making everyone then freak out and overpay, so you can grab some steals when everyone has spent/is still hoarding their cash for the remaining studs.

My auction league is in year 6, and this is still what happens, every single year. Everyone smugly avoids bidding on the first couple of expensive players, until before you know it there's one elite RB left on the board, and he goes for $TEXAS, and then suddenly a few people realize they have no RB2, so the mid-tier guys go for waaay too much, then someone panics that they won't get THEIR super sleeper (that everyone else also knows about) so they go and defeat the whole purpose of sleepers by spending real money on them. Then there's always a few forgotten players at the end who go for half their value because everyone shot their load on mid-tier players and sleepers.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

MacheteZombie posted:

Is the confidence in Hyde as a fantasy starter mostly based on his projected volume?

Hyde is super loving talented. Many considered him the best pure runner in the draft last year. I think if he was a rookie he'd be getting more hype actually.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
Good week to be sitting on Montcrief and David Johnson!

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
What caliber WR would you offer for Dez Bryant?

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
It's probably too early to call it, but I'm looking very correct about my CJA skepticism. Don't trust CJ hype in the first round guys, it's like Fantasy Rule #1

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
No no, first name CJ. Your Spillers and Andersons. Don't trust any adult man who goes by initials

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
Peyton didn't throw great, but I still love both DT and Emmanuel, especially in PPR. Sanders looks like he's right back where he was, looks pretty good for 100+ catches easily.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

Dandy Kaiser posted:

Seems like a non-zero chance, and maybe even the most likely scenario from here, but I maintain that if you managed to get him in the early-to-mid second and/or you drafted well otherwise, you should still have a decent team and at least get some kind of bye week/flex production out of him. I still maintain that his ceiling is high enough that he's worrk keeping/buying low and waiting that out.

Well yeah, in this scenario where the guy Fantasy Pros had going 8th overall fell to you somewhere in the teens, you'll probably be fine because you had a real 1st round pick.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

VDay posted:

McCoy officially questionable for Sunday's game with seemingly lingering hamstring issues, so hope you picked up Karlos Williams already.

gently caress. Yes.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
I picked up Karlos Williams in my keeper league after the uneven Shady performance. Didn't know much about the guy so I finally watched some game tape. Good lord. He's just amazing. I watched some college highlights and jizzed everywhere. I also decided to watch the condensed Bills game on Gamepass. What I saw:

1. Shady has either permanently lost a little or the hammy was affecting him. His running style requires him to be inhumanly faster and twitchier than the defense, so if he's lost even a little it could get ugly. He was visibly frustrated after a few runs, just like last year when the Eagles o line was struggling.

2. Bills o line didn't look great, but ok.

3. Every time Williams touched the ball I knew before I could see the number on the jersey. He is just explosive.

4. Colts o line looked pretty bad. I would not feel good about Gore.

5. Luck made some bad throws. Forced the ball a lot.

6. AJ80 looked slow and old. Moncrief looked legit.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
I don't understand the Quick love, personally I'd drop him for Perriman. It does depend on your lineup though. How strong is your flex/WR situation? If you're going to need someone at the flex during bye weeks, Beasley is a good guy to have in PPR. With Perriman, you're going to have to wait until he's healthy and then wait a few weeks to see how he's used anyway. If you don't really need any of these guys to play and they're all lottery tickets on your bench, Perriman and Quick are the highest upside guys.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

Shath Hole posted:

I wish all leagues had IR.

Sadly stares at Dez Bryant sitting on the bench :smith:

Being out isn't the same as being on IR

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
I can't believe you're hemming and hawing over trading for a top 5 receiver who has WR1 potential.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
Watched the Redskins game last night and I'm pretty excited about Jordan Reed. Tons of big meaty targets, and could have easily had a monster game. Cousins doesn't look as bad as I thought he would. He doesn't look *good*, but considering how porous that o-line looked, he was aight. I hope Reed can stay healthy! I believe.

Crazyweasel posted:

Just heard Brees is going to be out. Is it worth keeping him on bench? I picked up Dalton, and its a 12 team league so waiver isn't really stacked, but from what I saw Brees seems out of it and doesn't sound too confident in himself even if he does rehab it for a week or two...

Second, are we still holding on to Dez because we are masochists or has the ship sailed? (I want to learn from Josh Gordon last year but it's a painful drop...)

Do not drop Drew Brees.

You might as well drop Dez now. I'd rather take a flyer on someone whose stock can actually improve. If you had one this earlier, you might have grabbed someone like Moncrief. David Johnson, Karlos Williams, um, maybe Tyler Lockett or Lance Dunbar, or even Dorial Green Beckham. The odds are low any of these guys do anything worthwhile this season, but at least there's a chance, and if they don't do anything by the time you hit byes and need to pick up a scrub TE or QB for one week, you can drop them and not lose any sleep.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

Digital Jedi posted:

My win this week is going to come down to who Manning likes more Sanders or Thomas.

I really hope it is Thomas for my sake.

So far so good friend

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
Karlos Williams is an absolute beast and I think he will take Shady's job

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

kiimo posted:

Yeah, thanks for Zach Zenner goons.

The ghost of Zach Sudfield appears

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

Forever_Peace posted:

You're aware that Randle is currently the RB4 in standard right now.

And it really doesn't matter who the running back is behind that line. If they're getting volume, they're relevant. I think that's likely to remain Randle and Dunbar, but if Randle gets hurt, who knows? Cmike is basically just a big dumb sparq monster, but that's probably sufficient behind a line that monstrous.

Still probably better adds though.

Be careful though. That doesn't mean you can trust Randle going forward. Fantasy value and real life performance don't always line up. Sometimes real life performance can get in the way. If you could guarantee me that Randle gets 20 touches a game with that o-line for the rest of the season, I'm in, because you're right, anyone getting volume behind that line is going to put up fantasy numbers. The problem is Randle wasn't actually that good last week, and the coaching staff knows this. If he puts in a couple more fantasy good/real life bad performances, especially if the team loses, the coaches may try something new.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax

RVProfootballer posted:

Dunbar is going to catch a million passes, he's on pace for ~100 catches and ~1000 receiving yards. Certainly much more useful than DMC. I would drop Mariota and DMC and grab Hankerson and Dunbar.

Dunbar is real nice this year in PPR. He's like vintage Sproles.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
drat, poor Reed. I'm gonna hold onto him and see. Fleener is a good one week hold.

District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
How much FAAB for Charcandrick West? I'm going to drop $50+ methinks

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District Selectman
Jan 22, 2012

by Lowtax
gently caress it I'm going $75 for West. See if I regret this in the morning, I may have been drinking

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