Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

It's a joke from The Onion spinoff Clickhole.

# ¿ May 11, 2015 20:16

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# ¿ May 16, 2024 05:37

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Who is their rb3 I gotta get in on that

# ¿ Jun 6, 2015 17:17

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Thelonius Van Funk posted:

Am I being a dumbass for keeping two D/ST in my dynasty league? We have pretty large rosters (30 spots including IR) so the waiver is pretty bare and we've already had our rookie draft. Should I drop the texans or the cardinals and pick up Bobby Rainey/Jordan Todman/Allan Hurns/Boobie Dixon/Lance Dunbar/Marcedes Lewis?

Since those are good I would just hold onto them or trade one (unless it's a 6 team league or something someone should be willing to trade somebody better than those guys you listed, which is not to say they will).

edit: and it's not a 6 team league or the 181st best player / top of the wire would be better than ~Bobby Rainey.

pangstrom fucked around with this message at 11:42 on Jun 11, 2015

# ¿ Jun 11, 2015 11:40

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

VDay posted:

Figuring out who you should drop early and who to hold on to all season is one of the more important and underrated fantasy skills imo. Way too many people get attached to their drafted players and have them sit on the bench for 9 weeks not doing anything before finally dropping them for a second defense or bye-week kicker. It can definitely bite you in the rear end sometimes, but I've found that being super aggressive with drops/waiver pickups pays off like 80% of the time, and I end up getting a league-winning player from the waiver wire almost every year that I win.

Yeah in the league I play in every year this is one of the more stable "attribute" spectrums. There are guys who cut bait fast and those who wait it out and everywhere inbetween, and usually the former don't spring for speculative plays/flavors of the week and the latter do. I am more aggressive than most but to this day the bad moves I remember most are the ones where I cut bait on established people on a bad run who then get back on track for someone else.

# ¿ Jun 12, 2015 20:12

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

I may just be used to it but Yahoo and ESPN are both fine and I don't have any recent experience with the other ones.

Every year when it's time to start up again I have to find yahoo's ff page and it usually involves going through yahoo's other pages i.e. trying to navigate through some aggressively bad and busy design decisions.

# ¿ Jun 29, 2015 16:49

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:

Bookmarks are so easy -_-

Nobody cares about my bookmarking and of course nobody should but I delete and re-create the fantasy bookmarks every year, just because they take up space in the meantime and I have a lot of bookmarks. Going through Yahoo pages once a year isn't the end of the world, it's even sort of interesting in like a "visiting a bizarre tribe in the rainforest" sense.

# ¿ Jun 30, 2015 01:21

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Arctic Baldwin posted:

I'm commissioner in one of my leagues and to determine draft order, we are having a combine of sorts at the local bar but I am looking for a copy of the wonderlic (or equivalent). However, because I am in the league, I cant really look at the test before draft day in two weeks. So basically, could someone help me find a wonderlic and tell me if its appropriate for people without a ton of football knowledge (about half the league isnt ultra knowledgeable about the sport/not American). I found one on Page 2 but I dont know if its any good

It's an IQ test (I got one when I applied for a job awhile back, though that's kind of uncommon), zero football stuff on it, mostly logic/basic but tricky math/reading comprehension/vocab things. There are some sample ones online, I don't know if they're OFFICIAL but since it's for draft order in pretend football league I'm sure it's fine.
e.g., just with a quick google
http://samplewonderlictest.com/

Is it a snake draft, where the first pick in round 1 gets the last in round 2? If so it's not super clear what the best position is, anyway (I'd like to see an analysis about that "in general", though the effect is going to be super small)

# ¿ Jul 13, 2015 15:20

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

I second everything Beer4TheBeerGod said re: auctions.

This is not an absolute rule just something that helps me personally with other semi-experienced auction drafters:
-Don't let a $40 player slide off the board for $20, but it's pretty common for drafts to have a later stage where there are still a lot of starters available and only a few people who can bid on them. If things shake out that way (which you'll have to track over the draft), be one of those few. This is the main reason I like to nominate expensive people who I think are a little overrated early.
-There is a temptation to bid on players just because you think the other guy is getting them too cheaply. Hopefully other people will pick up this role, if you can encourage it in a way that won't backfire then do that. If you pick up the role you'll end up holding the bag sometimes so don't go nuts with bags at prices you don't want.
-Especially in big leagues, it's better to be weak at one position than to overcorrect and gently caress up your draft by overspending to get the last decent <whatever>.
-Only new people try this, but don't try to corner the market at a position with hopes of trading

# ¿ Aug 3, 2015 13:47

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Yeah just say upfront what the plan is for no-shows.

Might want to say upfront what the handing-off-a-zombie-team criteria/plan is, too. Flakiness can kind of snowball with players a person didn't pick and then they lose the first couple of weeks etc. etc.

# ¿ Aug 4, 2015 18:23

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Kouerson posted:

So in my Dynasty League, I have the 1.03 pick and I'm looking to also acquire the 1.01 for Megatron.

Should I pull the trigger on a Megatron for 1.01 and Cooks/Wheaton deal? We can't directly trade next years picks but I can always bring it up with the commissioner.

Who is available/would you be picking at 1.01?

# ¿ Aug 5, 2015 19:17

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Azhais posted:

So do they use a stapler for that or what? Where's Swickles

I know sometimes they use "suture anchors", which is basically like a screw they put into bone with sutures coming out the top end that they can sew to the tendon. There are probably other methods I don't know about, though.

# ¿ Aug 5, 2015 21:54

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Yeah you have to start from a blank slate, so sure make it a "keeper league" in name whenever you want but you have to start by drafting everyone fresh.

# ¿ Aug 7, 2015 21:44

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

In what universe does Luck fall to the 3rd round.

# ¿ Aug 8, 2015 03:33

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Forever_Peace posted:

This, but during the season I usually like feel out some trades with the team I'm playing a player's bye week (in essence using otherwise fair trades to stack myself with a few easy matchups).

That's pretty clever I never thought to try that.

# ¿ Aug 8, 2015 16:35

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Pretty sure he just forgot / didn't know about the suspension everyone it's fine moving on.

# ¿ Aug 27, 2015 14:46

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Kloaked00 posted:

Drafting 7th/8 in a 2QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1RB/WR/TE, 4PaTD, non-PPR league on Monday. Anyone have a good recommendation for where to do 2QB mock drafts? I have the football guys draft dominator, and I know of the FFC mock draft site, but both of those are me drafting against a computer, which is doing silly things like Gronk going 2st overall or LeVeon dropping to the 7/8th spot.

Also still trying to figure out how to do my 1st and 2nd picks. With the lack of true bellow RBs, I feel like one of those has to be a Lynch / Lacy / Forte RB with a likely Rodgers pairing. A few times in the mocks, Anyonio Brown has been available, but then my RB1 ends up being someone like Forsett / Gore / Ingrham. This is my first time doing a 2QB draft. Any suggestions on strategy?

Might get some pushback on this BUT: Pick Rogers and Luck if they are available (they won't be, unless nobody in the league knows what they are doing), and if not then pick best remaining QB unless there was already a run. A stellar RB1 or WR1 season is going to be worth like X points, a stellar QB1 season is more like Y, and the dropoff from the best to next-best etc. is similarly disparate. Aside but: It is still weird to me that everyone doesn't do auction drafts.

edit: should have argued the scarcity argument but really it's hard to do off top of head

pangstrom fucked around with this message at 20:20 on Aug 27, 2015

# ¿ Aug 27, 2015 18:32

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

dphi posted:

Just taking a glance so there's probably other weird poo poo, but Lacy at 12? Lynch at 28? Those are weirder than the Jordy pick since that can be explained by the person waking up from a coma or something.

It was probably a snake draft / Lynch went at 15 but yeah does look weird in general. I did pretty poorly in my auction draft this year, though so I can't really judge.

# ¿ Aug 31, 2015 23:38

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

It's crazy how bad Yahoo's autodraft / autobid is, still. My brother ended up with Gronkowski as TE1, Graham as superflex, and Olson as backup I guess? Wouldn't be that hard to fix, Yahoo, and fantasy football is pretty much the only reason I and a bunch of other people still know you exist!

# ¿ Sep 1, 2015 01:32

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

MacheteZombie posted:

What does the NFL Game Pass cost this year? The site only tells me to try for free for 7 Days, I can't find the actual price.

$100

edit: agree it's strange that the site does that. I had to look it up on some like press release before I bought it a couple weeks ago

# ¿ Sep 2, 2015 17:45

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

MacheteZombie posted:

$100?! Wasn't it like 40 last year?

NFL Rewind was... I forget but like $70 I think? They mushed everything together into one plan which sucks but whatever, I don't have to sit through (or sit on the fast forward button to get through) a 3 hour game.

# ¿ Sep 2, 2015 17:52

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Yeah do it.

# ¿ Sep 2, 2015 19:52

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Would anyone here prefer Funchess over Edelman as a bench WR? Edelman wasn't drafted (it's an auction draft so this kind of thing happens sometimes) and I'm thinking of dropping Funchess for him, but for some reason the not-a-lottery-ticket aspect is making me hesitate.

edit: maybe I have ODBJ disease

# ¿ Sep 2, 2015 22:21

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Teeter posted:

Someone please give me a two sentence summary of Stevie Johnson and why I've been seeing him mentioned so much here. I picked him up in the 15th round. Are my friends more clueless than I am? I used beer sheets so I imagine he must have been valued fairly low there as well if I got him that late.

It's because he hasn't done much (fantasy wise) in the last two seasons and has been bouncing between teams (49ers actually cut him), seems like he might be sort of a loose cannon. I have him in both my leagues, though, basically he has always looked dangerous and has a good QB throwing to him, now. If he does poorly for you then you'll just have to blame Jesus.

# ¿ Sep 3, 2015 01:07

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Cart Mountain posted:

In a QB/2RB/2WR/Flex/TE format where all TD's are worth 6 and it's PPR, QB's draft priority shouldn't be that inflated right? I.E. I should still be looking to pick from the top 2 WR/RB tiers before I consider a QB if available, instead of reaching for one in the 1st.

I can't crunch the numbers in my head (I have a feel for 2QB but PPR pushes things back the other way), but go to some site where you can see how many points separate the "starting" players at the positions with that scoring system in 2014. Keep in mind that (if it's 10 teams) 20 QBs will be starting each week (with bye weeks that means Bortles and Fitzgeralds etc. might be making appearances), and that the number of RBs and WRs who emerge from fantasy irrelevance to put in useful stretches each season is larger than the number of QBs who do so... WRs are like 2x and RBs are like 4x more likely to get hurt than QBs, too. As always it doesn't make sense to jump on somebody at any position when somebody equivalent is around 2 rounds later, so some of this just depends on what everyone else is doing.

# ¿ Sep 3, 2015 18:16

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Yeah that's the way to think about it, with the caveat that it's probably safer bet that Rodgers will be a stud QB than to bet that any specific RB will turn out to be a stud RB. But still you should take your shot.

# ¿ Sep 6, 2015 16:04

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Twin Cinema posted:

I am a first year Fantasy Football man with a draft tonight. There's two slots for D. Other than J.J. Watt, I am okay with waiting until the final four rounds to start drafting these guys, correct?

As long as the scoring isn't wonky, yes.

# ¿ Sep 6, 2015 20:25

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Zombie Tsunami posted:

I want to believe in McCluster in ppr. If McCoy and Spiller remain hurt I may have to get a little desperate.

McCluster is basically the poor man's Spiller, who is the poor man's McCoy. You've got a type, is what I'm saying.

# ¿ Sep 6, 2015 22:50

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

I'm stubbornly sticking with Ertz until he does badly the first game then I'll swap him out for some other non-Gronk.

# ¿ Sep 6, 2015 23:56

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

kiimo posted:

^^^^ I will never understand this. Just don't overpay.

It's the winner's curse, basically. If you got a top tier guy you probably overpaid.

# ¿ Sep 9, 2015 00:57

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

winvirus posted:

Well poo poo, Mike Evans out. Should I start Anquan Boldin or Stevie Johnson? I am already starting Keenan Allen if it matters.

Do you like feeling smart more than you hate feeling dumb? Then Stevie. Otherwise Boldin.

# ¿ Sep 13, 2015 19:29

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

railroad terror posted:

That's actually the big takeaway I had too -- Peyton's performance was rough. From a regular, non-fantasy football POV, I really like watching Denver's offense play when it's functioning smoothly. Yesterday was not smooth. I'm willing to chalk that up to a tough Ravens D though. Can't overreact after Week 1.

He threw a lot of bad balls under zero duress, though. Would love to be wrong but he just may not be able to throw that well anymore.

# ¿ Sep 14, 2015 15:14

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

I mean, 5 points a week is pretty big! I would take it if I had acceptable WR cover but I wouldn't call you crazy if you turned it down.

# ¿ Sep 14, 2015 19:12

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Basically it's so that people can have a life and pay attention to waivers at their leisure and so that there is some fairness to the distribution of suddenly-desirable players, instead of the person watching the games in real time getting every obvious add available.

# ¿ Sep 15, 2015 18:11

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

For 15 years I have been playing in a $0 league with friends from high school, and the convention is that the winner is commissioner next season. The guy who won in '14 locked the roster of the guy who won in '13 (and '12) because he was taking too long to send the trophy (most of us live in different states, now). The guy with the locked roster has quit. This post just confirming that many happily-married and gainfully-employed adults are still children.

# ¿ Sep 17, 2015 17:11

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

I was super low on him but ended up with him anyway, which is a weird pattern with me. I used to do the same thing with Eddie George.

# ¿ Sep 24, 2015 17:24

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

SurgicalOntologist posted:

I got offered Luck for my Larry Fitzgerald. My current QB is Tannehill and I would be taking Kendall Wright off the bench to replace Fitz. Also have DJax on the bench but that's all my WR depth.

This is an accept, right?

I would accept, yes. Luck will be worse than last year and Fitz apparently will be better but last year Luck carried fantasy teams on his back. Well until the playoffs at least :mad:

(Maybe less clear if it's PPR, more clear if it's 6 point PTD.)

# ¿ Sep 25, 2015 15:32

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

It is wildly unpopular with a few players but in the league I run I don't have playoffs, it's just your final record.

# ¿ Sep 25, 2015 16:24

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

MacheteZombie posted:

I've been wanting to try a league with this setup, but you also play ever owner every week so you get ridiculous w/l records.

Yeah "all play" sounds like it would be fun. Well, more fair at least. I understand people who prefer things a little more chaotic/stochastic/whatever, plus head-to-head focuses which players/games you care about in a given week.

Honore_De_Balzac posted:

This isn't lily licking soccer! Go back to your cold rainy rock. We play knock out style in the iron mans league.

Yeah that's basically my stealth reason for doing it but I'm not dumb enough to tell them that openly

# ¿ Sep 25, 2015 16:37

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Yeah I would shop Dez if you don't have an injury slot, though. I hate dead roster spots but some people are really fond of eating short term loss for hypothetical long term gain, it makes them feel like they're saving food for winter or playing the clever long game or something. (Which sometimes they are but usually it's just being too clever by half.)

# ¿ Sep 25, 2015 19:41

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# ¿ May 16, 2024 05:37

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

VietCampo posted:

You mean like me holding onto Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin to use as keepers?

Well dynasty is different and I've never played it. But yeah I bet dynasty has its share of people always planning for future seasons while they gently caress up each and every current one.

# ¿ Sep 25, 2015 19:56

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