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RCarr posted:I mean if he wasn't suspended I don't see how he isn't the first overall pick. Dude was basically averaging 200 yards from scrimmage every game. He's a beast. His suspension definitely hurts, but he's still easily a first round pick. I'm keeping him in the third round in my league and I couldn't be happier.
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Jun 11, 2015 01:17
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Wow, really interesting work. What does it look like in a 12 player league with standard scoring?
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Jun 12, 2015 04:08
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Forever_Peace posted:Here's what happens if everybody uses aggregate rankings (adjusting for need, making fuzzy picks between the top 4 candidates each turn) in a 12-team league (500 sims):
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Jun 12, 2015 16:25
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Franks Happy Place posted:In-season roster management is way more important than drafting, too. Even the best drafted team will fall apart if you don't make the right moves. Varg posted:that's a lot of words and numbers that end up meaning nothing as soon as the draft actually starts and you just go by instinct after thinking about the perfect draft strategy for the last 6 months. fwiw I've had the 1st spot once and 2nd spot twice in the past 3 years in 10 teams and have won all those years. I really don't know if draft position means all that much when you have a mix of people who know and don't really know what they're doing.
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Jun 12, 2015 16:47
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Spoeank posted:Like half of y'all lit a roster spot on fire for 2014 Josh Gordon Fight Club Sandwich posted:Trading those players to someone willing to buy "low" is my favorite part of the fantasy season  Sataere posted:I think the way to really test this out would be to use last years projections against that draft-based simulator, and then measure the results that actually occurred.
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Jun 13, 2015 00:35
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:Zero RB strat last year was not viable. I did a bunch of mocks going for a Graham/Gronk or a DT/Peyton strat and kept getting Toby Gerhart and Bishop Sankey as RB1/2 and I wasn't comfortable with that I think RB's were a little more volatile, but not as much as the zero RB strategy would have you believe. I look at the top 8 projected RBs and if we remove AP because of his suspension, the only one who really was a bust was Montee Ball. It gets worse as you go further down in to the 15 and reach the Zac Stacy's and Ryan Mathews, but going RB with your first pick was no worse than going WR last year. My take away from all of this is that I'm going to go with what the draft gives me. Not all of my leagues are full of stat nerds who follow fantasy football closely, and I'm not going to stick with a zero RB strat if Lacy falls to me at the 1.12 or something. cheese fucked around with this message at 08:19 on Jun 13, 2015 |
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Jun 13, 2015 08:16
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A lot of what he is saying seems to be PPR oriented. He even says in one of his responses to the comments "I mean ya I would get an RB1 earlier if I was in standard" or something. It does sort of sound like he counts on being able to snag mid-late round RB's that blow up, like J. Hill and Crowell did last year. Either way, its hard to say that zero RB looked really good last year. God help you if you went Megatron-AJ Green-Keenan Allen-Crabtree with your first four picks or something. Even if you HAD managed to grab the right mid-late pick RBs like Hill and Crowell, you probably started 2-6 and were out of the playoffs by week 9. I look at the RB stats from last year and I don't see how you can expect to have grabbed the few late round RB's who put up big points to complement a season in which top 25 WR's seemed just as likely to underperform or be injured as top 25 RB's.
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Jun 14, 2015 22:03
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Gyshall posted:The Browns backfield was and will be nothing more than a daily tournament play this year. Don't draft those guys at all... Crowell was barely startable as an RB4 last year.
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Jun 18, 2015 02:51
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I've been doing mock drafts/draft simulators to get ready, and I feel like the one spot I'm struggling is once I get into that late RB2/RB3 range. The Latavius Murrays, the Blounts, Randles, Joique Bell, Bernard, etc. What are you guys looking for when taking those backs? Lets say you went WR/WR, got Alfred Morris with your 3rd pick and are looking at taking RB's with your next two picks. Do you want a player who is a reliable starter or the best back in a RBBC? Most of those guys all have huge red flags and I'm trying to figure out which red flags I'm ok with.
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Jun 22, 2015 18:56
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coronaball posted:It's a boring late June Wednesday, so I re-activated the Goon Money League. We currently have one opening if anyone is interested. Time to get auction-raped by goons for the 5th straight year! I posted in the thread and would like to play 
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Jun 24, 2015 21:44
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Its Miller Time posted:Counts on fingers...10 is also not divisible by 3.
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Jul 2, 2015 23:15
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Fight Club Sandwich posted:Man if you want to pay for a thing that would have told you last year to drop Bradshaw and pick up TRich, be my guest
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Jul 6, 2015 00:09
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Gearman posted:He missed pretty much all of camp, and the first four games of last season with a hamstring injury. He didn't do anything the first four games, because he didn't even play.
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Aug 8, 2015 02:29
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Spoeank posted:Wow thanks NFL.com ranks for this:
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Aug 8, 2015 03:24
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89 posted:I just realized I busted on all three of my first picks last year (Megatron, Brandon Marshall, & Zac Stacy)....but I still won the championship 😎
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Aug 8, 2015 21:46
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So I just found out I've got the #1 pick in my 100 dollar league. I'm a big fan of Zero RB / WR+WR drafts but I don't think I can really justify taking Dez or Antonio with the first pick. This will probably be the only league that I take a top tier RB in and I'm really leaning towards Bell. Someone tell me I am an idiot for taking a player who will already miss two extra games with the first pick...
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Aug 9, 2015 03:39
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Zypher posted:14 teams, .5 ppr  Forte is a PPR monster but his receptions are likely to go way down and your top two WR's were injury plagued last season
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Aug 9, 2015 05:34
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Doltos posted:Yeah that's how bad the 5th pick in a 14 person PPR league is. It seems like there's a ton of high quality WRs this year but there really aren't. You have Brown/Bryant/ODB/Thomas/Jones/Megatron/Nelson/Green/Cobb as the top tier, Hilton/Evans/Sanders as decent 2nd round picks, and then question mark 3rd/4th round picks like Jeffery/Benjamin/Hopkins/Cooks/Andre 3000/Jackson/Bryant/Jordan Matthews/Marshall/Edelman/Keenan Allen. That last group all is ehhh and I wouldn't feel great trotting any of them out week after week as my #1 WR. That's why if I have the fifth I feel like I have to reach on Brown/ODB/Thomas/Bryant then hope something is good for the second pick. 89 posted:We'll see cheese fucked around with this message at 19:33 on Aug 9, 2015 |
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Aug 9, 2015 19:31
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Spoeank posted:Then you probably want to look somewhere other than SA  Why does Big Ben keep talking up Wheaton? I really like Bryant but that makes me a little nervous. Just smoke and mirrors or what? Zypher posted:Brandin Cooks broke his hand -- not a recurring injury -- and all signs point to becoming a target monster in that offense. Doltos posted:The #1 rule in fantasy is don't grab good players in terrible offenses. The Texans are going to be an absolute train wreck which means Hopkins is probably going to put up a very unreliabe statline this year from week to week. You'll probably get a ton of duds out of him. Matthews might be a bit better, but he seems the type that could easily be replaced midstream as a favorite target as Chip's new offense smooths itself out.  Also, I thought the #1 rule in Fantasy was to not draft any Raiders? cheese fucked around with this message at 21:41 on Aug 9, 2015 |
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Aug 9, 2015 21:22
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Tiptoes posted:I can't believe how many people are scared off by ODB. In PPR leagues, I think he's worth considering at 1.01.
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Aug 9, 2015 21:39
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89 posted:He's prob gonna be a bust, but Doug Martin is worth a super late pick gamble. I mean, incase this Winston thing ends up turning out.
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Aug 9, 2015 22:38
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That said, I was in a league where someone won by picking as many Cowboys as they could. loving DeMarco and Dez
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Aug 9, 2015 22:55
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Papes posted:I'm going to have as much Doug Martin exposure as I can get get for cheap. Last year he looked healthy and good again but gameflow completely ruined him (bucs ran the ball the least in the 4th qtr by a fair margin iirc). If the bucs can somehow stay in more games.... or dare I say even have some late leads then Martin should outproduce his adp.
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Aug 9, 2015 23:17
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Doltos posted:People who win their leagues, usually. I dont think anyone disagrees that good players on good teams are better than good players on bad teams... We just also realize that sometimes a good player on a bad team is better than a decent player on a good team. Crazy, I know.
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Aug 10, 2015 03:24
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Marshmallow Blue posted:what round is delaine walker. If im remembering right, he did okay as a late round tight end.
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Aug 11, 2015 02:17
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Doltos posted:So if he had one good year and one garbage year doesn't it suggest that picking good players on bad offenses is unreliable? Your "don't draft good players on bad teams" advice is both silly and provably inaccurate. The quality of a players team is just one more factor that should go into your assessment of their value along with injury history, personal changes at other positions, etc.
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Aug 11, 2015 06:53
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Doltos posted:I'd say the quality of the team is the most important factor but of course I agree that age and injury history matters too. You saying personnel changes at other positions just agrees with my argument, but whatever. I think the inability to even cede a little bit that good player on good team will usually have more chances to put up points than good player on bad team is mind boggling. Your first four picks are your most valuable! You can't gamble on your WR1, RB1, or your next two picks that will hopefully be confident picks that you can trot out every week. You don't want your third or fourth round picks to be gambles, you want sure fire scorers there. Once you start delving into your late QB picks or 2nd/3rd WR/RBs, then you can start gambling on the T.J. Yeldons and Latavius Murrays of the world.
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Aug 13, 2015 00:00
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xcore posted:I'm going to check out the fantasypros premium service, but in the meantime, allow me to vent about my Keeper conundrum (10-Team standard ESPN scoring).
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Aug 13, 2015 02:06
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Varg posted:Hopkins is pretty good Ty1990 posted:I actually passed on Hopkins for Jordan Matthews in my draft but I would have had zero issue taking him to be my WR2 (in fact I tried trading down because I liked quite a few wideouts on the board, including Jmatt, Hopkins, and Kelvin) so I'm not sure why everybody is so down on him this year.
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Aug 14, 2015 00:05
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TommyGun85 posted:I have and always will maintain that ending up with picks 6-12 are much better than 1-5. why?
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Aug 15, 2015 00:49
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Amer Abdullah is one of those players that you will not be able to scoop up as easily if you draft late rather than early. I wouldn't be surprised if he moves up a round or two between now and the start of the season.
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Aug 15, 2015 18:31
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MrSargent posted:Who are the useful handcuffs this year? My RB depth last year was pretty bad due to my choice in late round RBs. I was able to pickup Knile Davis which was nice since I had JC but everyone else I had was terrible. I think what you are asking about is rookie/young RB's who could blow up and take over a starting job, not handcuffs. To me, Ameer Abdullah is not Joique Bell's handcuff - he is his possible replacement. DeAngelo Williams is probably a better example of a handcuff. He is not seeing more than a handful of touches a game unless Bell goes down, in which case he probably jumps in and takes over for the majority of the plays Bell would have had.
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Aug 15, 2015 21:07
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Ty1990 posted:Roster: 12 team PPR Benne posted:It begins cheese fucked around with this message at 03:50 on Aug 16, 2015 |
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Aug 16, 2015 03:43
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Spoeank posted:That was probably noted moron Cecil Lammey. He's a lotto ticket or flyer but they'll probably play a more run and defense game scheme to keep Peyton healthy. The passing game pie is getting smaller and he's third in line.
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Aug 16, 2015 18:51
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Metapod posted:Peyton doesn't give a gently caress what a Kubiak offense normally does
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Aug 16, 2015 19:29
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kiimo posted:My girlfriend drafted for the first time. She knows absolutely zero about football, much less fantasy football. So I printed off a beer sheet for her PPR league and I must say it could have been a lot worse.
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Aug 17, 2015 04:38
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weekly font posted:Shady has a hurt hammy. The RB clulsterfuck gets a lot fuckier.
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Aug 19, 2015 04:48
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Is it wrong that some part of me is annoyed that the players who are getting injured pre-drafts, like Shady and Kevlin Benjamin, are ones who I feel like were going to way under perform compared to their ADP, are injured and are now going to drop to more appropriate ADPs? So many bad players are going to miss out on taking Kelvin in the second now...
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Aug 20, 2015 01:20
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Enforka posted:I traded Benjamin away to move up to a top 3 pick in the first round five days ago. We're a two keeper league. Nobody said anything, as they generally don't for most of the trades that go through. The commissioner even put Benjamin up on the draft board as a keeper for the other guy. Now the guy I am trading him to says the trade should be cancelled because it was never voted on and people did not have the time to see it. We are two days away from the keeper deadline. This poo poo happens - its part of fantasy football. I traded away Jeremy Hill as part of a big player swap three days before he ran for 154 yards and 2 tds against Jax. Sucks but thats life.
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Aug 21, 2015 03:58
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89 posted:My team:
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Aug 21, 2015 05:43
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