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SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

I discussed my reasons for this briefly last season, and without getting into a ton of detail, I think it's useful for those of us interested in fantasy analytics to have not only historical stats but also historical projections. By the time I realized this last year I could only find one site with its complete weekly projections available (numberfire). Many sites were 90% complete but often, for example, a player out in week 17 (or whenever you're checking) won't show up at all in past weeks. In any case, I'm taking it upon myself to collect projections this year, both season-long and weekly projections. It's important to grab them at the time since there's no guarantee they will be accessible here.

I'm developing an add-on to nfldb with additional tables for projections. It's undocumented, the code is super sloppy, but if you're curious you can find it here (note: none of the data is provided, just the database setup and code to import data. The scrapers aren't completely interfaced yet, so far I've just loaded in the data I collected manually last season). I don't expect to have time to clean it up and make it properly tested, etc., for a while. If you're particularly interested I can help you out but otherwise my plan is to collect projections myself and then perhaps provide remote access to interested parties or maybe I'll just export csvs for people.

Long story short, the reason I'm posting is to ask if anyone has requests as to projections to start scraping before the season starts. So far on my list is really just fantasypros, numberfire, and 4for4 (I'm a subscriber, so I won't share current projections to non-members, and my scraping code will require credentials). Any other data I should be collecting? Maybe I can import beersheets manually but there's no website to scrape so that's actually a little tricky to automate.

I suppose on a similar note, I know some of you make projections. If there is any data you use that is hard to find in the past, I could add that to the database. Stuff like historical performances, weather, etc., is easy enough to find in the future. But if there's anything that could be useful that is no longer accessible after the fact I'd like to save it for posterity. Otherwise backtesting a model that relies on it would be impossible. For example, is there a source people use to automatically grab injury reports? Is it available for past weeks?

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SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Forever_Peace posted:

You're a champ, SO.

Weekly vegas lines would be :krad: if there's a good source to scrape!

I was able to find these going back so it's not as urgent, not a "get them before they're taken down" situation: http://www.repole.com/sun4cast/data.html

However, I just did another search and there's only one or two other sources, and who knows if they'll be up forever, so it's probably prudent to start scraping them.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Forever_Peace posted:

Just letting you know that while these excel files appear to go up through 2013, it stopped updating about two weeks into the 2014 season. Might be a good idea to scrape last year and continue forwards if possible.

Well, poo poo. Thanks for taking a closer look. I'll bump up the urgency on scraping spreads, then.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Who are you all "streaming" at DST for week 1? I didn't bother looking ahead more than one week and chose Carolina @ Jax.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Ian Rapoport
‏@RapSheet
Don’t expect @NFL to seek an injunction to keep Tom Brady off the field as they appeal this ruling. Basically, he’s playing this season.

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/639445385405165568

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

If anyone thinks #1 waiver priority will net them >1 wins, they are an idiot.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Ugh my friends league got a late start this year; we couldn't work out a draft time so we did it over email/text/google-sheets over 3 days, it was chaos. The last pick was around midnight last night, and the commish barely got the players entered in time. He also didn't set it to 0.5 PPR like we agreed.

Is it too late to change the settings on Yahoo? I think I will make a stink about this even if no one does, after all I drafted based on 0.5 PPR and it is the superior format. We do have leverage because I think no one has paid yet. Can we retroactively add points or are we going to have to do something silly like make a new league and count week 1 manually?

I want my extra 3.5 points from Antonio Brown, goddamn it.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Ugh I could have sworn I checked all my lineups but I somehow started Leveon in my Yahoo Pro20. :doh:

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Dandy Kaiser posted:

you mean you don't compulsively set all of your lineups through the playoffs right after you draft what a fuckin scrub

The draft was Wednesday night, and yeah that's exactly what I thought I did.

Edit: and spreadsheets are for scrubs. I use pandas for all my data analysis needs.

SurgicalOntologist fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Sep 12, 2015

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

I really wish everytime someone mentions that kind of split, they also mention what it is for the league as a whole. I mean, it sounds good, but it could be totally average.

The other thing I've been hearing this week is that Andy Dalton does ~so much better~ against teams he's familiar with. Yeah, doesn't everyone? I want to know if he does better than we would otherwise expect him to.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Anyone feel like confirming my waiver thinking?

Standard 10-team 2RB 3WR 1TE
Available: Vereen, Coleman, David Johnson, Chris Johnson, Heath Miller, James Jones, Beasley, Hillman (I don't have CJA)
Droppable?: Funchess, Ryan Mathews (?)

Leaning toward: Drop Funchess for (1) Coleman, (2) Beasley, or (3) Jones.

Standard 10-team 2RB 3WR 1TE
Available: Vereen, Woodhead, Sankey, both ARI Johnsons, J. Jones, Heath Miller, Beasley, Coleman
Droppable?: Joique, Crowell, Delanie Walker

Leaning toward: only drop Crowell. Shoot for Heath Miller (because I'm worried about Walker for week 2), #2 priority is Woodhead

Half-PPR 12-team 2RB 2WR 1TE 1RB/WR/TE
Available: Beasley, James Jones, CJ2K
Droppable?: Funchess, Duke Johnson, DWill (if I don't start him this week, next best is Vereen)

Leaning toward: Drop Funchess for (1) Beasley or (2) Jones. Drop Duke for Chris.

Half-PPR 12-team 2RB 2WR 1TE 1RB/WR/TE
Available: Jordan Reed, Coleman, Beasley, J. Jones, CJ2K
Droppable?: Funchess, Reggie Bush, Duke Johnson

Leaning toward: Drop Funchess for (1) Coleman, (2) Beasley or (3) Jones. Drop Bush for CJ2K.

Questions:
Should I be worried about Delanie Walker? If I pick up a short-term replacement, do I hold him on the bench?
Am I wrong to be giving up on Funchess?

Edit: removed some players on my "Droppable?" list that I got ridiculed for.

SurgicalOntologist fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Sep 15, 2015

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

dy. posted:

I don't even know where to begin here. Your "droppable" list is insane.

Why would you draft Blount in the first place if you want to drop him before he even plays?

Well I was digging a bit trying to give a sense of who the lowest players on my rosters were. "Droppable" was probably the wrong label there but In retrospect Blount wasn't worth mentioning, you're right. Do you find my "leaning toward" moves to be insane as well?

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Cool, thanks for the advice. I think I was a little over-eager with the first waiver decisions of the season.

Edit: and the reason I mentioned Walker was because of injury concerns rather than performance. But I guess I'll wait until later in the week to pick up a flyer TE if necessary if it turns out he won't be playing.

SurgicalOntologist fucked around with this message at 19:58 on Sep 15, 2015

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

How do people feel about Devonta Freeman? Someone dropped him. According to FantasyPros ROS rankings I should consider dropping CJ2K, Crowell, Duke Johnson, or Hillman for him (I don't have CJA). I'm thinking he might be a better flyer than the Duke. Agree/disagree?

Also would you rather have Crowell or Ryan Mathews?

SurgicalOntologist fucked around with this message at 15:11 on Sep 16, 2015

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

On Yahoo, can I pick up a player to play Sunday after the Thursday game starts? I have Delanie Walker and I don't want to be stuck with a zero if news comes out that he won't play.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

10-team standard. Currently starting Delanie Walker who's not going to play. Do I drop Crowell to pick up Heath Miller? Or just drop Walker?

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Hmm.. got offered Phillip Rivers and Brandin Cooks for Emmanuel Sanders. I'm currently starting Bradford at QB so it would be an upgrade. Still, this is a reject, right? Cooks-Sanders seems like a nice buy low/sell high combo but it's still a downgrade, and I can stream QBs.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

kiimo posted:

What???


edit: Emmanuel Sanders is going to be dogshit when Peyton ages fifty years in the next six games. Phillip Rivers is going to be a lot better than he was week 2. I mean, I'd accept that in a second. Who do you think you can stream in place of Rivers?

Well, Drew Brees isn't doing so hot himself and may even be out for a few weeks. I don't know anything about the next guy up for the Saints. So, I'm not high on either Sanders or Cooks when considering their QBs (although Sanders still seems the better choice). And it's a 10-team league so the waiver wire's not that bad. Sure, Rivers would be better. For example, just looking ahead to next week Mariota vs IND or even Fitzpatrick vs PHI are not looking that much worse than Rivers @ MIN.

Don't get me wrong, I'm on the fence.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

I got offered Luck for my Larry Fitzgerald. My current QB is Tannehill and I would be taking Kendall Wright off the bench to replace Fitz. Also have DJax on the bench but that's all my WR depth.

This is an accept, right?

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Am I crazy to trade away Arian Foster? I have Leveon, Gore, and Miller clogging my RB roster and I desperately need another WR.

Let's do it this way. What receivers would you take for Foster (half-PPR)? AB, Julio, Odell... DT? Or am I valuing Foster too highly?

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Evaluate trade. My team:


I give: Foster and Decker. I get Megatron and Ryan Mathews.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

MrSargent posted:

You really need WR help so on the surface this looks like a good trade. Megatron has two brutal weeks ahead against Seattle and then Arizona, but after that, their schedule is pretty nice the rest of the year. I really want no part of the Chip Kelly RB Committee even after Mathews had a great week. When DeMarco gets back, he will at best split carries with the other RB's. Honestly, I don't like that you have to give up your best WR in this deal. I would try to counter with Foster for Megatron straight up.

Edit: On second thought, you are definitely giving up too much to get Megatron. Your 2nd best RB who could be top 5 and your best WR is too much. You need to keep Decker.

I don't disagree with your conclusion but did you miss that I also have Edelman? Or is Decker > Edelman to you?

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Catfish Noodlin posted:

I've got Charles Clay for a TE in a non-PPR league(because gently caress tight ends this year)

I am considering dropping him for Maxx Williams and going streaming, any opinions?

I'm streaming tight ends and went for Clay this week. T-Mobile's been goods and Sammy's out... so :shrug:

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

MrSargent posted:

Would you drop any of the following for Brian Quick?

Khiry Robinson (Have Ingram)
Doug Martin
Anquan Boldin

I would absolutely drop Thomas Rawls but I don't want my opponent picking him up to back up his Lynch. I could wait until after this week but am worried if Quick even does mediocre, then he will be scooped off the WW.


If you drop him, won't he go to waivers until after the games anyway?

SurgicalOntologist fucked around with this message at 21:34 on Oct 2, 2015

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Well, I sat Lamar Miller for him [Arian Foster], so unless I want to play Vereen or Agholor instead, he's locked into my flex.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Ugh who do I drop to pick up a QB to fill in for Luck? I'm the idiot who traded Fitz for him and haven't been able to start him yet.

Agholor, DJax, Morris, Blount, Crowell. It's Crowell right?

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

The Rotoworld player blurb mentions Ian Rappaport as a source.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:

Man, now I have to wait for ESPN to mark him as out so I can put him on IR. I can't drop anybody and Tanny is on friggin bye

t(-_-t) Luck

Drop Tanny.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Reggie Died posted:

How does Yahoo handle waiver's with Thursday night games?

Andre Johnson hit the waiver's Wednesday morning when he was dropped for another player picked up on waivers. He was just picked up this morning by another manager.

Given that he played Thursday, should he not have been locked Thursday, and clear Sunday? If he put in a bid (FAAB league) prior to the game, would that have locked him out?

Check your league settings. He's on waivers until Oct 14 under the default settings.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Got a tempting trade offer. Here's my team.



I get Julio Jones and give Demariyus and Dion Lewis. Not PPR.

Peyton looks quite bad so I'm down to give up on DT. Not sure what I'll do at RB though. Is losing Dion worth the upgrade at WR?

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

pangstrom posted:

I told you to dump Fitzgerald for Luck but THAT SAID I wouldn't do it. Your bench RBs don't currently seem startable. If you can get another RB somewhere else then sure I think that's a pretty fair trade.

Would it be insulting to ask him to throw in Hyde?

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

I'm in a league with the stupid resetting waivers thing. Luckily (?) I'm in last place (I'M FIRST IN ALL MY OTHER LEAGUES OKAY) so I get unlimited waiver claims before anyone else gets a pick.

RBs:
Frank Gore
Justin Forsett
Jonathan Stewart
Karlos Williams
Chris Johnson
Ronnie Hillman
Ameer Abdullah

WRs:
Antonio Brown
Jarvis Landry
Stevie Johnson
Nelson Agholor


I'm dropping Agholor for Snead, and Hillman for West. Should I also be putting in a claim for Knile Davis? Karlos maybe?

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Drop Crowell or Ellington for CMike? I'm not about to start any of them (have LVB, Lacy, and Gio). I could also give up on DJax.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Hmmm should I trade away Gore for Amari Cooper? I originally proposed Miller + Vereen over email, he accepted and proposed it but canceled before I could accept. Now he wants Gore and Vereen but I'm trying to push it through for just Gore. Am I fighting over crumbs here?

My team is RB-heavy as I also Leveon and Arian Foster. Half-PPR.

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

Trade check: I was trying to get a friend to take Gore for his Olsen. I have Clay at TE now, and good RB depth: Forsett, Stewart, Chris Johnson, Charcandrick, Abdullah, and Hillman. Is throwing in Charcandrick too much?

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

I just traded Jarvis Landry and Chris Johnson for A.J. Green. Not sure if it's a win for me but I needed a WR and had so many RBs that Gore is on my bench. I'm selling high on both but in retrospect I could have probably offered less. Oh well.

Now the thing is, the trade will go through Friday. My understanding (Yahoo) is if I put Landry in the starting lineup for the Thursday game, the trade won't go through until next week. Since they both have good matchups this week I'm tempted to play them. Would you rather play:

Chris Johnson @ CLE
Jarvis Landry @ NE

or

Frank Gore @ CAR
A.J. Green @ PIT

Okay, after typing it up the answer is obvious: the second one. They all have pretty good matchups. And, since it's a 2-for-1 it will allow me to pick up some crap TE to fill in for Clay without having to drop Hillman or Abdulalh.

So, thanks thread. Just typing up my situation helps me figure things out. I guess I'll ask your opinion: did I make a mistake with this trade?

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

This is beautiful, I'm trading Jarvis Landry to the guy I'm playing this week. If I don't start him, the trade will go through tomorrow, too late for my opponent to play him. But I'll still be able to play the player I'm getting (A.J. Green).

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

It's Yahoo, which says

quote:

Note: This trade will be processed on Friday, Oct 30 for Week 8. If the traded players have already played in Week 8 and were in a starting lineup, then the trade will be processed for Week 9 instead. If you've set your lineup for future dates, those changes will be reset to match your lineup for the day players are added.

I'm sitting Landry tonight on the assumption that this is correct. Anyone know if I'm making a mistake?

SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

DeepDickPizza posted:

Pretty sure Yahoo will lock the traded player for you. And if not, that's shady as gently caress.

Hey, he accepted the trade, and the warning appears before it's accepted. And maybe he's trying to get it go through too, he benched A.J. Green. Plus it's a 2-for-1, Landry and Chris Johnson for Green, so he'll get to start Johnson.

Edit: not to mention that my plan was to bench Landry to get the trade to go through, even before I realized I was playing him this week (I rarely check my opponents before the games start so it came as a surprise). So it's not just me denying him Landry but me wanting to get the trade to go through in time for me to take advantage of the 2-for-1 to pick up a guy before games start.

SurgicalOntologist fucked around with this message at 21:41 on Oct 29, 2015

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SurgicalOntologist
Jun 17, 2004

I wasn't going to pick up a TE unless my match was close enough. Now I'm down 40 with my Gore and JStew against his Vinatierri. Seems pretty hopeless but close enough to pick up Fleener. Do I drop Charles Clay, Abdullah, ASJ, or VJax?

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