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1337JiveTurkey posted:That's really risky for them. If Trump's not in the debates because he's legitimately not popular enough, they can hope his campaign will just sputter out. I think you're overestimating how solid his support actually is. He polls well nationally because he has high name ID compared to the rest of the field. That's it. That's the end of it. His support crumbles the second somebody else manages to take the spotlight by saying something really stupid. That moment will happen at the first debate even if he's not there, and none of the primary voters are actually going to care beyond the small percentage of them who are actually die hard Trump fans for some reason. Go look at the polling graphs from the 2012 primaries. Trump is the first anyone-but-Romney of this cycle. Give it a few weeks and it'll be Ben Carson. A few weeks after that it'll be Cruz. They'll rotate through their options, and they're probably going to land on Bush or Rubio. Hell, we might even end up with a Bush/Rubio ticket. This far out the national polling isn't really meaningful for much, and statistically it's all complete garbage. Though, that fact isn't going to stop the networks from excluding essentially random candidates that ring in at the rear end end of the poll lottery well within the margin of error. Debates have a big impact on polling. Anybody who doesn't make it to that first debate is loving done. What happens at that debate is going to dominate the coverage, and someone's pet candidate being excluded isn't going to change that. When the primaries actually happen, I really don't trust that poll respondents are going to pull the level for the people they say they're going to pull the lever for in July of 2015. You may as well put stock in what a 5 year old says they want to be when they grow up. It probably has more weight. ErIog fucked around with this message at 14:18 on Jul 10, 2015 |
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Jul 10, 2015 14:13
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The reason HFT is bullshit is because it replaces valid price competition in the market with artificial speed competition down to the fraction of a second. At the pace the market is operating at the market for any single stock is so thin that actual price competition rarely happens. With actual physical goods some competitiveness over speed makes sense. If you're in an apple market then the guy who has apples in front of him to buy right now instead of next week is in a better position. The guy who has the cash in his pocket to purchase apples instead of needing to bring it next week is in a better position to buy. The way that market clears makes intuitive logistical sense, and some competition in terms of the speed of a deal makes sense. It does not make any logistical sense, however, for a computerized market just pushing data around to favor speed competition by allowing HFT. The reform that should happen is to quantize the pace of the trades to a half-second or full-second pace. Right now the market is unhealthily thin, and it leads to lots of crazy maneuvering to wring out extremely marginal gains through arbitrage. Executing orders only every so often would bring price competition back to the market, and also make it stop favoring firms that shell out the money to put their equipment in the data centers with the fastest links to the trading computers. HFT hurts anyone operating in the market without sufficient capital to engage in HFT. It's basically just handing bonuses to high rollers in the market for being high rollers. Yeah, you need some kind of HFT algorithm in order to accomplish that, but if you hire enough programmers it seems likely you can derive some benefit as evidenced by the amount of HFT going on in the market. So at that point engaging in HFT just becomes an issue of tossing enough capital at the problem. If you believe in fair, healthy, and sane markets then you should really be opposed to HFT. It incentives terrible behavior and market distortions with the fun bonus that cascades can murder the market in the time it takes for a trader to blink his eyes. ErIog fucked around with this message at 16:03 on Jul 25, 2015 |
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Jul 25, 2015 15:56
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Internet Webguy posted:USPOL July: Here's My 42 Point Plan On Forks I agree that a multi-pronged approach to this issue would be most beneficial.
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Jul 30, 2015 04:01
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zoux posted:If the Koch's wanted to run for office they'd have done it before now. David Koch ran third party on the Libertarian Party ticket in 1980 as the vice presidential nominee. Once that failed he decided that being a politician was stupid anyway, and just decided to use his wealth to make the GOP come to him.
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Jul 30, 2015 18:41
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It's the ultimate insider trading. Instead of going for small potatoes like companies that make things, Rand Paul decided to bet on the failure of the country itself and work his damnedest to cash that very small check off of it. It's impressively dastardly. He's certainly not phoning it in.
ErIog fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Jul 30, 2015 |
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Jul 30, 2015 20:20
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Mulva posted:Blind trusts are the biggest bunch of bullshit. "I don't know what's in it because it's being managed for me. What's that? What prevents me from talking to the person managing it? Why my fine moral character!' Also it just so happens this person is also part of my family so good luck proving we talked about how to manage my blind trust when we went ice fishing last January.
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Jul 30, 2015 20:31
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Mulva posted:How can supposed "experts" have never head of a head crash? Goddamn there are some stupid people. Partisanship is a hell of a drug. They most certainly have heard of a crashed hard drive, but this one is different. This one is suspicious for some reason! Isn't it convenient!
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Jul 30, 2015 21:34
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OAquinas posted:So it isn't the result of a bad data retention policy forced onto the agency by a shoestring IT budget, but a nefarious conspiracy to force political groups to file as political groups and not social charities to make them list their donors? There's also a rumor going around the Gowdy was responsible for leaking that Hillary stuff to the Daily Beast and the NYT. Most people don't know or care who Gowdy is, but it's pretty hosed up to backchannel privileged information from a congressional investigation to attack a currently running presidential candidate. ErIog fucked around with this message at 21:43 on Jul 30, 2015 |
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Jul 30, 2015 21:40
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It seems like if a person is that petty then rooting them out of your organization is probably going to improve efficiency.Lyapunov Unstable posted:yeah there's a 100% probability he quit for some other reason and just made that poo poo up He probably thought he had a shot at wingnut welfare if he screamed loud enough at local TV cameras.
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Aug 1, 2015 00:46
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