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Even though all logic and reason tells me that Biden won't run (and I have plenty of cash in it that he won't), the thing keeping me from putting more in is just the sheer belief of the other people/media that he will. I will feel quite the fool if they, somehow, turn out right.
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Oct 13, 2015 05:10
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Vox Nihili posted:Pretty much in the same boat, except: I'm at about 600 shares so I'm not much better. At least we have accepted the possibility of disaster 
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Oct 13, 2015 05:30
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We all love the Biden insanity, but can any of you imagine just how beautiful it would be if Trump made the general? It would be unskewed polling times 1000, and so many die-hard believers pouring their fortune into the market as the polls show him down by 7 points. ...Then we all collectively weep when he, somehow, wins
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Oct 13, 2015 05:53
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nachos posted:The power of the media I'm in the Biden NO camp and I'm still nervous too. Not going to sell my shares or anything, but really hoping he doesn't do some dumb desperation run just because so many people want him to.
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Oct 17, 2015 00:02
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At least if I go down, some of you are going down way harder. Biden no all the way!
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Oct 20, 2015 04:40
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Stereotype posted:Everything will be alright no matter what. We say this now, but when Biden announces his doomed candidacy eventually, we will all be panicking and cursing.
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Oct 20, 2015 08:45
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I still wonder whether Joe really was indecisive and realized it was pointless, or if it was coordinated that he'd hold out just in case Hillary faltered, and finally figured the media speculation was going to end the charade anyway.
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Oct 21, 2015 19:00
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lelandjs posted:Just realized that even though I have shares on Bernie winning the democrat nomination I hadn't bet against Hillary. Decided to double down on losing money This thread's been pretty cavalier about betting with risky things like the Biden market, but putting money on Bernie/against Hillary is just throwing your money away.
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Oct 21, 2015 19:13
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Now that Biden is basically set, what's the incentive for selling no at .97 instead of just waiting for it to resolve at 1?
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Oct 21, 2015 19:27
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lelandjs posted:So what did people pick up for the CNBC debate shares? I decided to grab some Rubio.No, they were the cheapest and I honestly can't see CNBC declaring him the winner. The debate stuff is too risky for me. It's hard to tell who is actually going to do well - maybe the safest bet would be to declare trump the loser simply because he's already the frontrunner, but even that's not a sure thing.
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Oct 22, 2015 21:55
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Vox Nihili posted:Picked up a small amount of Webb No at 66c, hoping to ride the Goon Consensus. pathetic little tramp posted:When would that close? I mean, he can decide to run again at any point right? Are we looking at Dec. 31 2015? Read the rules! It says that he would have to amend his candidacy or file new papers as an independent, as opposed to his current status as a Democrat (which he has since announced he will not be pursuing). The logic behind him not bothering an independent bid is kind of the same as Biden not running - there's no real point, no basis of support, and he'll just quit that before long too. It's really whether you think he'll bother with a vanity run, or if he was just saving face during his announcement dropping from the Dem primary. EDIT: I have shares in Webb not running as an independent, but not going all in like for Biden.
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Oct 26, 2015 22:16
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Gyges posted:I'm real tempted to buy a bunch of JEB! Yes in Next To Drop Out after that debate. However as a registered Democrat that may bet me a big wet kiss from him for cutting my losses. I'm really skeptical that Bush drops out soon. His name recognition keeps him at a few percent no matter how horrible he is, and his money and donor groups will keep him in at least until he loses Iowa and NH.
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Oct 29, 2015 07:38
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Can we just add a big bolded DONT PLAY THE POLL MARKETS to the OP?
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Oct 29, 2015 22:06
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nachos posted:Big Ben just had a really bad press conference so it might be a good opportunity to take advantage of some swings in various markets against him I violated the sacred rule of do not play polls by buying some NO for him to be above the 22% threshold. His peak is clearly here, or at least, will have peaked by the end of the month and he should decline as Trump, Rubio, and others pick up the rest. I know people say the base won't care about the absurd poo poo that he's saying, and if it were him running against a democrat, you're right. But this sorts of bizarre revelations and inability to handle media scrutiny do hurt his ability to compete with other Republicans, and enough people will abandon him for a new flavor of the month (tm).
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Nov 7, 2015 05:04
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Zeta Taskforce posted:The stream of stupid poo poo has been pretty constant, its gotten him to frontrunner status, and most of his supporters are heavy listeners of talk radio. Until right wing radio turns against him it could go either way You're not entirely wrong, but enough people will probably doubt his electability and flock back to Trump or to Rubio over the next few weeks. He's the flavor of the month and his peak has passed. Even if he keeps most of his support, going below 22 seems much more likely than staying where he is or getting better.
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Nov 9, 2015 06:52
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Some online polls are starting to trickle in showing Carson down a bit, but he's been pretty quiet at the debate tonight. I'm feeling a bit better about my Carson.NO poll bets.
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Nov 11, 2015 05:17
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Vox Nihili posted:Crossposting this from the R thread: Yeah, Carson <22 should be a safe bet. My fear right now is that Trump attacking him might backfire to some sympathy, but I think ultimately he continues to slide.
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Nov 13, 2015 21:00
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Net effect is it's like Charlie Brown with the football. It always seems so attainable, even for Jeb! but always gets taken away last minute. You're not wrong, but I wouldn't worry too much about Kentucky. There was very little good polling on kentucky, and a fair bit more for LA, so the polls are more meaningful. I didn't buy into Kentucky precisely because I saw absolutely no good polls that weren't months old.
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Nov 19, 2015 06:04
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It looks like RCP released some new polls, with good news for the Carson.NO 22% and Jeb! NO 7%. I'm looking to make another 300 bucks from that 
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Nov 20, 2015 01:22
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Necc0 posted:Also: Can someone go over what this does to existing investments?
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Nov 20, 2015 06:59
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Necc0 posted:Lot's of fun new markets just opened: These look cool, but I don't see any obvious winners other than maybe some NO's to Carson on some.
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Nov 21, 2015 01:48
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Will Bush drop out before Iowa
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Necc0 posted:Not sure how Rice's market will act but there's a 0% chance she'll accept the VP nom even if it's handed to her on a silver platter. It'll probably be low volume so something to keep an eye on in case some crazies latch onto it. Good points, and it made me realize that one of the leaders in the GOP VP candidates is Kasich (though still only at 23%). Am I insane to think that Kasich is very, very unlikely to be a VP pick?
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Nov 21, 2015 03:01
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Yoshifan823 posted:I have put in a pretty decent amount of money on Vitter being elected tomorrow. I just have a terrible, terrible feeling that everything that's happened over the last week, combined with Bevin's win in KY is gonna drive people out. Ehh, I've got money on Edwards and I don't think Vitter's going to pull it out. There were quite a few polls a week or two ago showing 15-20% leads for Edwards, and I don't think the Paris attacks will be sufficient to sway the electorate that much. Should be closer than 15-20, but Edwards seems to be benefiting from the Jindal hate.
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Nov 21, 2015 08:00
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I sold out of LA gov because I had a bunch of Dem.YES. I know I lose out on that last 5%, but I'd rather take 95% now than risk losing it in a Republican upset. Still think Edwards is gonna pull it out, but we'll see.
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Nov 22, 2015 03:28
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Edwards' victory is good, and I think people overstated the Kentucky outcome since it had a real shortage of good polling going into election day. The LA race was way better polled, even with the last minute terrorist attacks to add some uncertainty.
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Nov 22, 2015 04:57
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Aliquid posted:RCP dumped a few polls, so the current ones may stick around awhile. Too late, making money on Ben Carson's bubble bursting
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Nov 22, 2015 08:53
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Stop betting on polls! Unless it's the carson.NO 22%, which has netted me another 250 dollars  . Based Biden, your money grows!
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Nov 22, 2015 20:44
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Yoshifan823 posted:I'm not gonna lie, Vitter losing really hurt me in the wallet area (though it's dulled by the fact that he's a shithead who lost, so woo), but a kind soul put up 500 shares of Carson winning the Iowa Primary for 10 cents a piece, which means that somewhere, the PredictIt gods are looking out for me, because that's basically as low as he's ever been, and he's the exact right type of religious shithead to win in Iowa. See: Huckabee, Mike or Santorum, Rick. That's a great deal, but I really think Carson's time is eclipsing. I'd still take 500 shares at 10 cent just in case he ekes it out among the religious nuts, like you said, but I think it's about time Rubio or someone else became the flavor of the month (tm).
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Nov 23, 2015 11:50
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The TPP passage market is currently sitting at 40ish cents - does anyone else think this is a bit of a bargain? I know the candidates have all bitched about the TPP but there seems to be support between the monied interests and obama, and I have a hard time seeing this fail. Maybe the time limits the main factor here?
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Nov 24, 2015 14:14
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Finally getting my Biden money is really making me want to just cash out now, or at least wait until some Trumpmania creates sweeter markets. That or just dump it all into Hillary for President 
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Jan 2, 2016 11:47
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Gibberish posted:how much did you put in and get out for the biden thing? Some people gamed it much better than me, but I put in ~400 and got over 1k out of it. Biden is a glorious man. Most of my other investments have fizzled, and I've made only like 100 bucks at most from combined efforts elsewhere  . I keep forgetting not to bet on polls
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Jan 2, 2016 12:22
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North Korea is claiming h-bomb, I say ride it until the high 90's and sell in case it turns out to be a dud. EDIT: Or whatever the peak ends up being JosefStalinator has issued a correction as of 05:50 on Jan 6, 2016 |
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Jan 6, 2016 05:46
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Way I see it: Bernie now, trump later. In terms of bilking partisans and taking advantage of their supporters' delusions.
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Jan 13, 2016 00:37
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Am I insane for wanting to park my Biden money on some sweet Bernie.NO for the Democratic nomination? How is it still so undervalued?
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Jan 15, 2016 07:25
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This owns. Biden be praised.
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Jan 25, 2016 00:09
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Necc0 posted:I've deposited ~$1,000 and my total balance is now at $1,300. I think I'm probably one of the most conservative betters in this thread and a 30% return is pretty drat good. I put in about 800 and am at about 1500 with lots in Hillary winning the nom (not Iowa, Dem Nom overall). Do we need to report this to the IRS?
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Jan 25, 2016 02:53
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Yeah what the gently caress, I'm scooping up Yes shares now too. Is it cause it's a new market or do people really think Trump isn't full of poo poo 99% of the time?
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Jan 27, 2016 01:33
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watwat posted:That was me. Need to drive those Yes down as far as it can go so I can scoop em up. Got a big order at 15 I need filled. :masterstroke: Seriously though it'll swing back again with time.
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Jan 27, 2016 01:42
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Lol it's already back up to 21
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Jan 27, 2016 01:44
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a cop posted:Can you guys link the markets that you're talking about sometimes? I want to be able to get in on this while I'm cruising down the freeway!! https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1957/Will-Donald-Trump-participate-in-the-first-tier-Fox-News-debate#data A lot of us have made some quick bucks flipping no's and yes's.
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Jan 27, 2016 02:15
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