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Necc0 posted:This site is great for making really safe bets. 7% return on Warren not running for president? Sure If I'm reading their rules right, don't they take a 1% cut on all profits, plus 5% on withdrawals?
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Aug 21, 2015 17:41
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Wanamingo posted:It's actually 10% on all profits, plus 5% for withdrawals. Ah, I mistakenly believed that they would take 10 cents out of every dollar share, because I don't know what profit means.
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Aug 21, 2015 23:40
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pathetic little tramp posted:The tough ones are the "what will the polling be for this" ones. It's not usually stuff like "Obama approval above 50 or below." It's more like 44.5 or 45? I didn't think it'd get up to 45 so I lost 6 bucks on that today. I wonder if there's any money to be made getting in at the very end of the polling cycle. The Obama approval poll ends in 5 hours, and the RCP average is 44.5. I just bought a handful of No shares on 45%+ for 93 cents, and if no new polls come out after 7 pm, I just got a ~6.5% return in less than one day. e: 20 minutes later and it's up to 96 cents, I guess it's more of a timing thing. tinstaach has issued a correction as of 00:15 on Aug 29, 2015 |
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Aug 29, 2015 00:00
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Abel Wingnut posted:
This confused me too, but they only take 10% off of your profits, so for every share you buy for 99 cents that comes in, you make 0.9 cents. and obviously the more expensive the shares get the less effective this is, maybe I just got lucky but if you can get some shares for 95 cents or less you can make more than spare change. tinstaach has issued a correction as of 20:33 on Aug 29, 2015 |
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Aug 29, 2015 20:31
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I like the No side of Jeb! polling tinstaach has issued a correction as of 18:43 on Sep 7, 2015 |
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Sep 7, 2015 16:01
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It's funny how the get-rich-quick possibilties make us dissatisfied with getting a 10% ROI in a week.
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Sep 8, 2015 17:03
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Somebody who was ~allegedly~ a Draft Biden PAC employee was ~allegedly~ overheard telling someone over the phone that Biden was "100% in". Seriously. http://www.nationalreview.com/article/424209/joe-biden-josh-alcorn
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Sep 18, 2015 02:32
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Nothing indicates "yes" either - if he was going to enter, why is he waiting this long?
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Sep 20, 2015 18:10
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Man, I thought Huckabee was the worst, but Walker just cost me 30 bucks. gently caress him.
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Sep 21, 2015 21:30
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I mean, there were whispers here and there that people jumped on that drove the No shares around 80 cents, which is why I bought in in the first place. But of all the ones that would turn out to not be bullshit... And some of the traders are lightning fast, it's been an hour or so and all the No shares for everyone else are gone, save for a handful of 99-centers on Graham. tinstaach has issued a correction as of 21:44 on Sep 21, 2015 |
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Sep 21, 2015 21:41
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You know, after a few minutes of reflection, I'm comforted by this fact: If someone walked up to me a week ago and asked me "How much would you pay to see Scott Walker drop out with 15 Republicans still in the race?", my answer would be a lot more than what I lost today.
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Sep 21, 2015 21:57
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Uhhquote:Joseph R. Biden, Jr. shall become a candidate for president of the United States in the 2016 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy and/or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission. So...isn't that the end of it? I mean he obviously isn't running running yet since he hasn't personally announced anything, but it seems like that should have been resolved as Yes.
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Sep 22, 2015 04:32
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Aliquid posted:I'm super-over-exposed on Biden NO with about 60% of my portfolio in it and it's slowly sinking I've diversified my portfolio among Biden not running, Biden not winning Iowa, and Biden not winning the D nomination 
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Sep 25, 2015 18:47
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I would imagine that BIDENRUN No's will rise significantly in a few weeks after he misses the first debate.
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Oct 1, 2015 18:44
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Necc0 posted:Does anyone still have links to the earlier rumors that were saying he was definitely going to run? Did any of those give specific dates or timespans? tinstaach posted:Somebody who was ~allegedly~ a Draft Biden PAC employee was ~allegedly~ overheard telling someone over the phone that Biden was "100% in". Nope, just some fundraiser talking to another dude on a train, lol I think the reason why this market and only this market is crazy is that there is no data whatsoever to go by, there's just an equal amount of people (or at least an equal amount of money) believing "He hasn't announced he's running yet, so he must not be running" and "He hasn't announced he's not running yet, he must be running".
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Oct 6, 2015 18:17
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So are there going to be appetizers or what
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Oct 7, 2015 02:01
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How it's even possible that the Republican front-runners are an orange insult comic with a squirrel on his head, a black human Ambien, and a woman the market values at negative $3 billion who got housed in the only election she's ever been in is beyond me. Welcome to the 2016 election.
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Oct 8, 2015 17:40
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I'm finally back to even for the first time since that droopy-faced gently caress Scott Walker dropped out 
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Oct 14, 2015 02:36
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I feel like this will end up they way daily fantasy spots currently is - if you're not spending 8 hours a day on the site squeezing every last penny out of every market, you're a rube funneling money to the people who are.
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Oct 16, 2015 05:08
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An even stupider market is Biden polling over 20% at the end of the month. Everyone's been shouting that his oldest polls in his RCP average were well under 20 and due to come off, without mentioning that he's still under 20% without those polls, and oh yeah there's no way he's coming close to that in this weekend's polls after missing the debate.
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Oct 18, 2015 04:07
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I've thrown about $110 into No at this point and I think I'd be okay with losing it just for the entertainment alone
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Oct 20, 2015 02:20
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hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
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Oct 21, 2015 17:26
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I might as well cash out now because what could possibly be better than the Biden rollercoaster
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Oct 21, 2015 17:30
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Zeta Taskforce posted:The site crashed so I may or may not have put in a sell order for everything at 98. THANKS BIDEN
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Oct 21, 2015 17:35
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I should probably grab some yes shares on Jeb! dropping out because if Donald Trump clowns him out of the race before 2016 even starts I'm gonna need to buy some new pants
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Oct 24, 2015 21:51
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Gyges posted:Standard *POLLS* caveat, but why is Fiorina No on winning the debate so low? She's on the way down and will soon be back at the kiddie table. Even if she somehow manages to "win" the debate, almost no polling is likely to be done post debate and released by Saturday. So she's going to be trucking along on her winning personality and dazzling positions. Didn't she "win" the last two by shouting insane fascist poo poo that people ate up for a week then forgot about? Yeah, checking RCP she gained about 3 points after "winning" the kiddie debate in August, and she went from 8th to 3rd for a while after the last debate in September. She says things that are loving nuts, Fox/CNN are like WHOA WATCH OUT HILLARY and she takes a few tenths of a percent from everybody. tinstaach has issued a correction as of 03:12 on Oct 28, 2015 |
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Oct 28, 2015 03:08
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I'd still buy Yes on Fiorina if I were to but it on anyone, but with so many chaotic storylines flying around I'm not putting a cent into this fuckin circus
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Oct 28, 2015 04:43
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DJ BK posted:Sorry if the answer is obvious, will one of you guys explain the "linking of markets" idea to me? This is too basic, but the general idea is that if you buy shares in a multi-option market in such a way that you can't lose on all of them (buying No shares for multiple people in the RNOM market for example), they'll credit you so that the cost of those shares is the maximum amount of money you stand to lose instead of the full price.
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Oct 28, 2015 23:16
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Stereotype posted:It should be in the helpful hints section. Are you John Mulaney? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmuIVwq3aeY
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Oct 30, 2015 00:26
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No, that 5-cent loss represents the worst case scenario; the sum of winning $1 minus fees and losing out on the shares that resolve to Yes will come out to -$0.05 at worst for you. If they resolve more favourably (say you win on shares you bought for 60 cents instead of the ones you bought for 90) you'll get a little bit more when the market closes. Short story shorter, that $0.05 already has most if not all of your winnings rolled into it already.
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Nov 3, 2015 03:50
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I threw $10 on Yes, the Fox Business GOP debate was supposed to be focused on the economy and they went off on some pretty strange tangents there.
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Nov 15, 2015 01:27
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I was waiting for Missouri, I must have missed it but 
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Nov 15, 2015 04:45
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At this point I don't feel comfortable betting against Jeb! being an incompetent fuccboi at any price. No on Trump polling at 27% is going for less than 75c when he's currently at 24.6 and hasn't hit 27 since the first of the month. This might stay undervalues for a while, there's a lot of  ONLINE POLLS in the comments.
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Nov 21, 2015 21:35
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tinstaach posted:No on Trump polling at 27% is going for less than 75c when he's currently at 24.6 and hasn't hit 27 since the first of the month. This might stay undervalues for a while, there's a lot of wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwelp
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Nov 22, 2015 18:13
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If you bundle the top two choices for the CNN debate ratings it comes out to 80c shares on there being more than 20 million viewers. That's got to be easy money, right?
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Dec 13, 2015 18:54
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Hahaha apparently Rubio said the debate was in front of 15 millions people during one of his answers and the CNN Nielsen rating poll is going insane Ugh I wish I had more money to put on this, I'm basically betting all my BIDENNO winnings on 20+ million viewers. tinstaach has issued a correction as of 04:08 on Dec 16, 2015 |
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Dec 16, 2015 04:06
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Holy crap, Trump just said he wouldn't run third party and the No shares for a Trump 3rd party run hit 99c in about a minute flat.
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Dec 16, 2015 04:58
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poo poo good thing those dumbos were giving me NOs on less than 16 million for .65 yesterday
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Dec 16, 2015 19:15
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Sounds like that trade increased your amount at risk in a linked market.
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Dec 16, 2015 19:43
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Well, I'm going to be travelling home until New Years, so in lieu of playing any markets on my vacation I'm firing all my available money into BIDENNO shares for that sweet sweet 0.909% growth.
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Dec 20, 2015 06:53
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