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Politico ran this story just this morning. It's easy to see why the YESers are sticking to their guns, Biden's camp has been regularly providing glimpses of hope that he might run every now and then just to keep the door open. Just joined up and put an offer out for some NO stock, though, because I can't personally believe he would put himself through this ridiculous campaign cycle starting now, and if he doesn't join by the Dem debate there's really just no way, it'd be too easy for everyone else to blast him for not seriously committing by then. EDIT: The linked story is ridiculous, by the way. When was the last time someone joined the party primary race and really meant it after the primary debates had already started? (That's not a rhetorical question.) Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 00:27 on Oct 7, 2015 |
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Oct 7, 2015 00:21
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If you look at the overall history, giving the Prize to just one person (and sometimes whatever organization they're running to boot) is the norm unless it's awarded to a set of negotiators or to joint leaders of a particular movement. The 2011 and 2014 awards were exceptions (although they were clearly thematically linked). Moral of the story: None of the people or orgs listed by PredictIt have any kind of connection that would be immediately obvious (which is what the Prize-givers really go in for), don't even think of buying YES shares in "Multiple of these" EDIT: unless you plan on selling them before Friday, of course. EDIT: And when it comes to NO shares in "Multiple of these" as well, note that the rules state that one of the candidates they offer still has to win. Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 21:06 on Oct 7, 2015 |
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Oct 7, 2015 21:01
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CNN apparently (according to The Hill, anyway) reporting that Biden will "speak with his family" over the weekend about the run, who better yell "Jeez Joe you already said you weren't going to the first debate, do you really want to drag us through an election cycle when there's no freaking chance you'll take the White House this late into the game?" because this is just ridiculous. How it's even possible that the market's back to the usual 60 YES - 40 NO equilibrium at this point is beyond me.
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Oct 8, 2015 17:07
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I completely stayed out of the Speaker markets because I don't have time to do the research on all the nutty buggery the House gets up to but drat if that wasn't a fun slam of the door to watch. EDIT: Also LOL at the entire Majority Leader market turning to NO because no one actually has the needed plurality. Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 17:59 on Oct 8, 2015 |
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Oct 8, 2015 17:56
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I want to grab some Merkel Peace Prize YES shares, but I don't want to have to stay up until midnight or later waiting for the price to rise so I can sell them off (I'm not trusting the Swedes to actually pick her). 
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Oct 8, 2015 19:46
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I'm going to need a drink while I watch the debates, and I can't think of a better way to get it than picking up No shares in BIDEN.CNNDEMDEBATE for 90 cents a piece, since he's literally confirmed that he won't be there. Besides picking up No shares in BIDENRUN, of course. 
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Oct 9, 2015 03:43
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Jewel Repetition posted:I'd like to debate with you about Biden's run chances but that just seems cruel since I don't have any money on it. It is really cool how the prediction markets make you put your money where your mouth is. Like, I was really sure Merkel wasn't going to take the Peace Prize, but clearly I wasn't actually so sure that it would make me buy NO shares.
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Oct 9, 2015 13:29
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Is everyone ready for the debate? The BIDEN.CNNDEBATE NO market has tightened up quite a bit, but there's still good money to be made if you have the cash to max out the contract on that market. (Or, better yet, snap up some BIDEN.CNNDEBATE YES so if Biden enters the debate, no doubt appearing in a blast of diamond white light, you can gloat while I mourn the demise of my BIDENRUN shares.)
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Oct 12, 2015 21:29
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Sounds like something from the PredictIt comments section, which are full of Biden campers. If there's anything this experience has taught me it's that Politico really is just a gossip rag, but apparently "advisers are saying the real, real, real deadline is the end of the month, because of ballot-access requirements in November". The other new real deadline is Clinton's appearance at the Benghazi Committee on October 22nd, which is her last real chance to flame out before the end of the month. I'm staying out of the debate markets, nothing super solid or too interesting. Still going to be fun to watch the wild fluctuations, though.
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Oct 13, 2015 21:38
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He's doing fine in DNOM16.
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Oct 14, 2015 02:11
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Necc0 posted:Biden market is finally deflating 
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Oct 14, 2015 16:29
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah the speaker market is way too iffy. I personally just think the GOP can't get the votes on him, and I can't imagine what the GOP would give him that would compensate for his work-life balance (which is already apparently under severe strain) so I bought a hundred NO shares or so. EDIT: Also holding on to Biden NO shares for now and hoping for another bounce after Sunday. Fingers crossed it'll crash again before the Benghazi hearing on the 22nd, though. Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 17:16 on Oct 14, 2015 |
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Oct 14, 2015 17:13
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EDIT: ^ It's OK! I have the opposite problem, I play pretty conservative and always want to hang on to my shares at all costs. Case in point: Does anyone actually feel like Biden NO is really going to drop in value again? Considering selling my shares as well but having difficulty seeing a scenario where I'll be able to get them in the 30s/40s again.
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Oct 14, 2015 19:50
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Aliquid posted:The trick is to not think of unrealized potential as a loss. That's how stock traders go crazy. Exactly. Vox Nihili posted:Either Biden or the media will need to play him up and build some drama for the big dinner event (name is slipping my mind). It's the J-J Dinner on the 24th. I'm going to hold out for now, I think it's just easy to get impatient with the Biden market since the man in question seems intent on dragging this out as long as possible.
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Oct 14, 2015 20:12
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nachos posted:If anyone wants cheap NO on Biden they are at 50c right now because a new article came out saying bidens family supports a run I bought all the last 50 cent shares, the price then immediately jumped to 61 cents.  EDIT: The market's deflating back towards 50 cents pretty rapidly again.  Good advice earlier to buy up some YES shares when they were selling for 30.
Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 23:32 on Oct 15, 2015 |
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Oct 15, 2015 23:22
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Gyges posted:Biden isn't stupid enough to actually think he has a shot at this point. I can't decide if it's just a bunch of wishful thinkers feeding anonymous tip after anonymous tip to the reporters, or if Biden is loving around for shits and giggles/as part of one of Obama's mythic 11th dimensional chess moves. It's one of two things in my mind: 1) Denial: Biden knows that after this, he's basically politically retired. He's had a really long career and has always wanted the presidency, but he fucks it up every time he tries. This is his last chance, but he knows he can't win. So he has someone constantly keeping the door open for him so he can entertain the dream just a little while longer.  (It also gets him non-stop attention, and since he's a career politicians, he's probably the kind of person who eats that poo poo up, yo.) 2) Weird Democratic Party Strategy: Biden maybe entering the race has put all eyes on Hillary to see if she'll surpass expectations. By having Biden swan around for a long time and then dropping out after Hillary crushes it, it demonstrates that no one — not even Diamond Joe! — can possibly oppose her. (This would happen regardless if it's a conspiracy, of course.)
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Oct 16, 2015 00:29
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PC Brigadier posted:is there any way to get in on this if you don't live in the us? There's nothing explicitly against it that I could find in the T&C (as long as you stay in compliance with your local laws), but they're required to verify your identity to make sure you're over 18 and they seem to ask for a US address, so unless you somehow check out against their databases you're probably out of luck.
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Oct 16, 2015 01:24
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Zeta Taskforce posted:This is not original thought and you know that prominent Democrats are telling the same thing to him privately. Even if I wasn't in this race with my wallet, I'd desperately want him not to enter for the sole reason of never wanting to hear about Clarence Thomas/Anita Hill and the War on Crime ever again. And when they do inevitably come up, Biden really will end up looking like just another centrist white guy. There's just not room for another Clinton on the stage.
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Oct 16, 2015 21:34
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At this point I'm not sure what I want more: to read the comments in the market after Biden declares he won't run, or for Biden to randomly declare in the middle of December. I mean, I guess they aren't mutually exclusive...
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Oct 19, 2015 16:25
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Vox Nihili posted:A couple people made some huge yes buys. Gigantic hole in the market now. Really crazy to watch NO shares hit 21 cents and then immediately bounce back up in the 30s. Ed Hardy, FOX News' chief White House correspondent and the person who says he has three sources telling him Biden is ready to jump in, also just retweeted this, so...  EDIT: Cross-posting from USPOL in D&D: zoux posted:MSNBC's source is a guy from the national fireman's union who said Biden told him he was gonna run. The amount of hype surrounding Biden's interactions with this single union is insane. Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 17:05 on Oct 19, 2015 |
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Oct 19, 2015 16:53
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Hillary must just totally loathe Biden at this point. Like, voodoo-doll levels of loathing.Aliquid posted:There is no way I'm selling at all-time lows. Yeah, even if you're ready to jump out the market it's crazy right now, give it some time to cool down. Also, if anyone wants to feel better about their luck: I bought more NO shares today when they were selling at 39 cents an hour before the media blitz.  I want to work for CNN so I can make a killing just from tweeting about what my sources (or "sources") tell me.
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Oct 19, 2015 18:13
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I really need to program something that will automatically notify me of ongoing swings because I have actual things to do that don't involve refreshing this utterly ridiculous market every five minutes.
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Oct 19, 2015 19:48
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Vox Nihili posted:It's the average that matters, IMO. Yeah, at the end of the day, shares are shares. Abel Wingnut posted:seems like a good rule of thumb fr playing the swings in this market is to buy shares when they're < $.35 and sell your shares when they're > $.65. The market's sufficiently loaded with heavily polarized players that I put it at more like buy when < $.30 and sell when > $.60, but potato, potahto.
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Oct 19, 2015 19:58
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Fuschia tude posted:Interesting what just happened to the Jim Webb Drops Out First market. He just announced he wants to run as an independent, apparently.
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Oct 19, 2015 23:05
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Zeta Taskforce posted:My reading of the rules is that if Webb drops out as a Democrat but launches an independent campaign then this doesn't count as a drop out. Does anyone else have a different reading? My interpretation of the rules is that anyone who ends their candidacy for the Presidency or the Democratic nomination (which seems to be Webb's current idea) would be considered a drop out by the standards of the market. EDIT: Beaten.
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Oct 20, 2015 02:30
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This is glorious. Just glorious. PredictIt still crashed, though, robbing me of my well-deserved bounty of those delicious Bidenite tears. Do Not Resuscitate posted:gently caress me. Welp, here I am. I'm showing up for my well-deserved beating. Bring it on, boys. I thought you went to the
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Oct 21, 2015 17:24
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:I thought that his running would be pointless after Sunday, but I held onto my shares because I still thought he'd run anyways. Aww. Sorry buddy.  EDIT: Also gently caress you PredictIt, I want to buy up the last of these sweet 96 cent shares. Buy some freaking bandwidth with the cut you're taking off the Biden profits. 
Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 17:32 on Oct 21, 2015 |
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Oct 21, 2015 17:30
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So, anyone do any weird poo poo to try to verify the Biden bid? Because I literally read the Biden wikipedia page in French to try to make sure I was being neutral. railroad terror posted:So now that the Biden show is over, what's everyone hopping onto next for QUICK CASH? Thinking about buying Rubio at 0.42 then selling once the field clears a bit and he nabs a few endorsements. This isn't quick cash, or even necessarily a safe bid, but I'm still holding out for shares of NO for Ryan as the next Speaker. There's no freaking way the Freedomites are letting go now that they've essentially been told that they hold all the cards, and there's no way Ryan is going to accede to whatever weird demands they come up with, it'd ruin his career.
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Oct 21, 2015 17:39
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I think we broke the system? Trying to make and cancel offers but they won't process.
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Oct 21, 2015 17:53
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I'm a cheapskate, so I always hold out for the extra couple bucks. Unless I think I think know something about a seriously undervalued market where those couple of bucks could be put to good use, or it's going to take forever for PredictIt to call the market, it doesn't make sense to me to do anything else.
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Oct 21, 2015 17:55
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Sell now Good idea. I couldn't access the exact language because the site is so slow.
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Oct 21, 2015 18:16
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Milk Malk posted:Question: how can you see a market's end date? Answer: Click on the "Data" tab for the market. If it isn't there, you may be in a submarket of a larger market. Go to the larger market page and you should be able to find the data tab there.  EDIT: Yeah, the trading process is completely borked. What's being shown as being sold in the "My Shares" page and what's being shown as being sold on the Buy/Sell markets isn't matching up at all. They really need to close trading while they figure this out. Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 19:17 on Oct 21, 2015 |
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Oct 21, 2015 19:14
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All my offers have now gone through and are showing up normally, things seem to be back on track. EDIT: And someone bought my shares at 99 cents because I was able to sell them fast enough, XOXO Zeta Taskforce. Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 19:53 on Oct 21, 2015 |
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Oct 21, 2015 19:50
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Gyges posted:There may still be life in the Biden market! There's still a couple months left where Hillary could have a heart attack or trip over a pile of classified emails and fall down the stairs. Not a truly horrible idea to throw down a single dollar on the off-chance of a huge pay-off. I'm not going to do it myself, but... Abel Wingnut posted:so RYANNO is looking good to me. thoughts? I've got a hundred or so NO shares, for what it's worth. Also, as the Biden market demonstrated, the best PredictIt markets are the ones where you get lots of speculative news stories that push the price up and down within a short amount of time, and something similar is happening here. The RYANNO market just bounced from 59 to 75 and back literally just a minute ago and — let me refresh — now it's at 46 cents? Ample opportunities there as long as you can get the timing right. EDIT: I'd buy NO shares if the price is lower than 50, myself. Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 20:39 on Oct 21, 2015 |
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Oct 21, 2015 20:32
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In case anyone hasn't heard, a total of 9 Freedom Caucus members are officially in opposition to the Ryan Speakership. They need 8 to block. Still possible one side or the other will cave, but... EDIT: Oh god yes I'm buying shares at 48 cents and selling them off at 59 cents simultaneous
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Oct 21, 2015 20:56
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Aliquid posted:Ryan Speaker is a wild ride if anyone wants on. I started buying Ryan NOs at .50 and now I'm buying them at .40. It really is just as fun as the Biden market, although it's riskier than the Biden market in my book so I'm investing a lot less. The market comments are also full of people utterly convinced the Freedom Caucus will suddenly cave any second now.  EDIT: When I started writing this post, it was at .40. Now at .20. 
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Oct 22, 2015 00:54
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Rebounding already as people realize the FC didn't get the 80% needed for an endorsement, though.
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Oct 22, 2015 00:59
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I don't have that much in the market so I'm going to hold on while Ryan figures out if he's going to move forward or not.
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Oct 22, 2015 01:13
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evilweasel posted:He's going to get it. Ugh, gently caress it, you're right. Out of the market at .30.
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Oct 22, 2015 01:19
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Abel Wingnut posted:lost $100 of my biden winnings because of the tortilla coast. of course the first time they compromise on something it's when i'm betting on them...   Didn't lose as much as that, but definitely could have if I didn't have the goon alarm. Sorry to anyone who decided to follow me down the rabbit hole. And yeah, the FC decides now is the time to compromise on this? They're clearly more united around surprise disruptions than they are holding steadfast. God I hate the House.
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Oct 22, 2015 01:40
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