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Betting on polls seems to be dicey, but I'm debating whether to buy NO for Bush cracking 10%. It seems like a coinflip that a new poll comes out by 9/30, and then another coin flip that the poll puts him over 10%. Loving the Diamond Joe running for Prez by 12/31 No's and Trump running 3rd party by 12/31 No's though. Almost maxed out on both.
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Sep 26, 2015 18:37
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Biden is being pushed by the media for horse race reasons. Mix that with name recognition and years of not being a target of anything but fun lovin' memes, and there ya go.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:31
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Max bet on Biden NO on the debate
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Oct 9, 2015 22:35
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Seems like it's free money to take NO on the biggest loser of the debate, if you bet Chaffee, O Malley or Webb. They're barely above 0%, they have no room to fall. Like, Clinton or Sanders could decrease due to polling error and it's worse than their maximum fall.
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Oct 9, 2015 22:52
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Biden NO's on Debate Loser are still somehow for sale, despite him not being in the debate, and thus being an automatic win for NO.
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Oct 14, 2015 02:49
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Cashed out of all of my Biden No's to run. I still like it, but there's free money in the mean time. Hopefully some silly story comes out that gets people all riled up again. Managed to snag 629 Biden debate win NO's for $0.97 and 879 debate lose No's for $0.97. Thanks for the free $45 I don't understand the O'Malley to win the debate market, dipped my toes in there too.
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Oct 14, 2015 04:58
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Necc0 posted:So the market is saying Clinton will get the best bump but I still think the media will hype the gently caress out of O'Malley because of course they will. What say you, goons? Maybe, but remember, the bet isn't anything to do with that, it's only about polls that come out between now and one week from now. That's not a ton of time. The effects of the debate may not even impact the polls that are released within a week. I think Sanders to "lose" is the smart bet because his 35% poll is coming off the books next. Aliquid posted:Unless you see a quick return on your other stuff, I think you made a mistake. A lot of Biden YES people were hedging on Hillary flaming out in the debate, and now that she's shown she's fine on stage it seems less likely he jumps in. Plus, the market will essentially close (or jump up to .80ish and stay there) on Halloween which isn't that far away, investment-wise. Bought around $0.40, sold around $0.55, I'm ok with that. That's almost 40% return on a max bet. Only have to wait a week for the debate stuff to close out, then I'll see where Biden is at again. I've got about half a max bet for Diamond Joe NO for the D Nom, so I'll be happy either way.
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Oct 14, 2015 05:35
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Aliquid posted:Yeah, all this did was really calm my nerves and reassure myself since I'm at about 75% in on Biden NO now, average .41. Cmon son, max bet that poo poo
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Oct 14, 2015 06:22
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EngineerSean posted:Yeah I feel like I play this game a lot. For instance: It's all good, no one ever went broke taking a profit.
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Oct 14, 2015 23:49
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Gimme dem Biden NO's under $50 
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Oct 16, 2015 15:36
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I am back to a Biden NO max bet Looks pretty clear that Hillary will "win" the debate polling. Wish I put more in Bernie NO, but between that Bernie NO to win, and Webb/Chaffee/O'Malley NO to lose, I should make a nice profit. I have no idea what I'll plow that money into though.
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Oct 17, 2015 20:57
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EngineerSean posted:Looks like the debate poll market is turning on its head. Sell your Chafee NO for biggest loser shares! drat, a Biden-less poll !
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Oct 19, 2015 14:43
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Abel Wingnut posted:what evidence? I think he's saying that YES is at an all time high
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Oct 21, 2015 13:41
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Abel Wingnut posted:so RYANNO is looking good to me. thoughts? Agreed. I've had a few hundred shares of NO at 60 for a week or so. With my Biden funds, I may max bet it, it should resolve (or close to it) by Friday
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Oct 21, 2015 20:14
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God dammit I wish I bought more Ryan NOs. hopefully it drops below 50 in the next day
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Oct 21, 2015 22:05
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It sucks that my previous shares are worth so much less, but I will take 15% odds on Ryan NO. There's still plenty of time for fuckery IMO
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Oct 22, 2015 02:15
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Well I sure hope for tea party shenanigans because I've got 1500 shares now 😉
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Oct 22, 2015 03:18
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Remember that the "winner" has nothing to do with the debate.
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Oct 23, 2015 22:58
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Betting on Jeb! Bush's failure is the most satisfying bet I've ever made. All kinds of Jeb NO's spread around. Plus, I made my first YES bet, for Jeb to drop out first, just because I wanted to specifically bet against Jeb. It's probably a poor bet at around 23, but I only bought 100, and Jesus will smile upon me for betting against Jeb.
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Oct 26, 2015 00:36
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I'm scooping up RNOM NO's on everyone who isn't Rubio/Trump/Cruz at this point. I've got something like 40% of my bankroll tied up in that market
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Oct 27, 2015 05:51
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nachos posted:I think Carson NO is a good buy at 83 cents. He is a sleepy boring gently caress and his economic ideas are utter nonsense. This debate will be "won" by Trump/Rubio/Bush in my opinion. I'm undecided on Fiorina, I could see it going either way for her. She dipped in the polls quite a bit so her brash manner and former CEO title which might give her statements a bit more authority in an economic debate and lead to another quick bump. That said, I don't think the media really cares about her anymore. Agreed. But I also think you're too high on Jeb. High = anything above considering him a wet fart brought to life like a fart Frankenstein monster
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Oct 28, 2015 15:42
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Gyges posted:I'm real tempted to buy a bunch of JEB! Yes in Next To Drop Out after that debate. However as a registered Democrat that may bet me a big wet kiss from him for cutting my losses. Unfortunately until they finally do the linking, almost all YES best are overvalued. That said, the only YES I own is a Jeb! to drop the fuckout first and it feels fantastic Speakin of which, daddy needs some more, just a little hit, gimme another 100 Jeb YESes baby, mmmm, yeah that's the good stuff
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Oct 29, 2015 05:17
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To me, the Rubio NO's are way too optimistic. He's the likeliest candidate, sure, but 50%? Nah I have like $2k in various Republican Nom No's at this point 
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Nov 13, 2015 15:53
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Yeah, the real money to be made is when the crazies start to enter the market. Back in 08 I was still able to buy Obama to win the Presidency at like 0.60 until practically election day. 2016 is gonna be good, because we are entering peak crazy.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:45
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User Error posted:Rnom is getting linked December 1. I recently bought a bunch of nos, I'm curious to see how things shake out. I haven't really played in any linked markets yet. Cool, I have $2200 in the RNOM market, all NOs. I have NOs for almost everyone except for Cruz, who I like (the odds of being the candidate, not as a candidate, gross, gross). The prices are still good IMO for guys like Christie, Kasich, and Jeb!. Christie/Kasich NO for 91 implies 9% chance for the nomination. Jeb! implies 15%. Those are all waaay too high. Also, the Presidential market looks like it's linking Dec 3. The prices there seem out of whack too. You can buy Hilary for the same price as just buying Democrat to win in the Which Party Will Win market. With Republians at 40% to win, it doesn't make sense for someone like Trump to 16% to win. That'd imply there's a 40% chance he wins the Nom.
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Nov 25, 2015 17:54
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Just popping in to say that linked markets are the poo poo
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Dec 2, 2015 05:57
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Republican brokered convention is free money too.
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Dec 4, 2015 16:56
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railroad terror posted:Anyone else gambling a bit on some of the Repub Nomination YES bets now that the market is linked? NH is looking better and better for Christie. I think Cruz is overpriced right now at 26, I'm hoping for a Christie bump at some point to eat into Cruz. If Cruz drops below 20, hopefully below 15, I'll load up on him.
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Dec 4, 2015 17:04
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The delusional bets haven't even started yet. Wait till we get closer to the election and people start to get emotional about it.
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Dec 5, 2015 07:14
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Cruz to win Iowa seems crazy at 60, this early I'm just scooping up Iowa Santorums and Huckabees and Carson for dirt cheap.
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Dec 9, 2015 05:05
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Vox Nihili posted:I'm maxed on No here. Probably bought into it too greedily and too deep, but I've got two months to see a turnaround. I'm maxed out on Cruz NO here as well. I had about a half-max bet when he was around 50, so if I can fill the other half at 40, I am in. I have 2000+ shares of Carson now. He was a steal at 3
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Dec 9, 2015 16:21
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Peachstapler posted:With Iowa's GOP caucus-goers selecting such winners in recent memory as Huckabee and Santorum, Carson YES is a diamond in the rough. (I bought 316 .... because God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son). I have 3000+ Carson YES's as well, and Cruz NO's in the 30's is a steal.
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Dec 15, 2015 17:08
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Jeb ain't dropping out before Iowa.
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Dec 15, 2015 19:20
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nachos posted:The medical tax thing hosed me pretty good, luckily I made a chunk back with predictit's wording error on the supporting trump question last night. I miss the BIDENNO days. I've been spoiled too. I made $800 on Biden almost instantly, and since then I've only been able to grind out $200. I make smart low risk NO best, and then I get the Biden sweats and go and recklessly bet on something risky. Something stupid will happen again.
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Dec 17, 2015 07:35
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I picked a great time to make my Cruz bets!
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Jan 14, 2016 04:21
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Vox Nihili posted:Also, in the vein of the previous posts on bad decisions, I currently hold 1500 shares of Huckabee Yes in Iowa. Hopefully the Cruz panic helps me cut some loose. This, plus Carson and Santorum. It made sense at one point 
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Jan 14, 2016 15:02
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Ok, I need these Iowa caucuses to happen already. I have too much money tied up in them and I can't do anything else.
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Jan 20, 2016 15:44
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Garrand posted:So just how much cash have some of you dumped into this? I've deposited a grand total of 70 bucks at this point into a couple fairly sure bet markets. I'm too poor to be gambling, really. I deposited $3k because I killed it in 08 and 12 on other sites that have since died. At one point I was up $1.5k but now I'm down $500. I feel good about my Clinton in Iowa bet, hitting that will put me back in the green. Once I get that cash, it will all go into feeling the Bern in NH. Trump sweep NO to sweep seems like a good market too. User Error posted:I like Bernie but he better fuckin lose Iowa Word
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Jan 26, 2016 17:07
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There's also still questions about his ground game in Iowa, and how many of his supporters are first time caucus-ers.
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Jan 29, 2016 16:42
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Jesus, as I check now, Trump is up to 72 in Iowa.
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Jan 29, 2016 16:47
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