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Necc0 posted:TWIST: Obama buys up $850 worth of YES and vetoes bill at 11:59 PM wworth it
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Sep 30, 2015 22:13
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:How much would it cost a campaign to buy enough shares to make it look like you've got momentum going and to get people to take a look at you? Ridiculously little
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Oct 7, 2015 03:20
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Anorexic Sea Turtle posted:With how relatively easy it is to day trade in this game, who are the suckers losing money and still playing? I'm down 5% on a $2k initial buy but I've been doing a lot of things like "If the price of ('No' on Jeb for GOP nom) is correct at 70c then the price of ('No' on Jeb for Prez) should be at a minimum 85c" and buying a fortune at 80c without really looking at any of the fundamentals. There's probably a lot of guys like me who are just doing this with disposable income or only buying things that they care about (like my 50 shares of Bernie for Prez).
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Oct 8, 2015 00:36
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:I am talking about $20 I need to make back 
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Oct 8, 2015 04:51
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Seems like Bernie's a good bet on YES there, he hasn't been debate prepping and I think there's definitely more than a 1 in 4 chance that he loses to Lifelong Career Politician Hillary
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Oct 10, 2015 00:34
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Jewel Repetition posted:The caveat is that he still has low name recognition so even if he does bad it could be cancelled out by more people finding out about him. Maybe I should just buy YES on best polling bump and YES on worst polling bump in equal measures.
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Oct 10, 2015 00:48
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Fantastic_Mr_Fox posted:would doing that cost less than $1 per pair? because if so go for it. guaranteed money for the win it is less than a dollar but it's definitely not guaranteed. Hillary could be the worst debate bump and O'Malley could be the best, for instance.
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Oct 10, 2015 00:57
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Vox Nihili posted:He could bomb the debate and still get a better "bump" due to the way it's measured. Have fun refreshing poll results at 8am to cover your rear end, I definitely did. No, I'm not bitter at all. I've read about the woes people have from betting on polls and I really don't have time to refresh the results to ensure my win of $50 so I'll just have to close my eyes and hope for the best. I do have a sell order at 98 on everything which is kind of a hedge against weird poll results.
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Oct 10, 2015 14:11
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I think 2c is a steal for Biden to be the big loser of the debate.
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Oct 11, 2015 21:52
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Gyges posted:Only if you flip it before people realize that rules say if Biden doesn't show, NO wins. fffffffff edit: thanks for saving me some cash EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 00:27 on Oct 12, 2015 |
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Oct 12, 2015 00:24
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I can see why YES for Walker has value too. No one is amassing yes shares based on some unlikely scenario where he gets back in or wins a brokered convention. This is thinly traded too. The reason it has value is that there is $12,000 in value tied up in NO shares and they are hard to sell. There is a limited number of people who will want to take on ownership at 99 cents and sit on it for who knows how long contract end date 9-15-2016. Heck, probably no one. We are talking money market level rates of return. The vast majority of the trades that will happen over the next 11 months will be holders of NO selling them at 97, 96, 95, etc to other traders who want NO and don't mind having their money tied up forever. This isn't a poll that will be decided in 2 weeks. When you factor in time, the value of a Walker NO probably really is 95 or 96 which is why the value of a Walker YES really is 4 or 5. I think there's a flaw to this math. As you said, the main reason why Walker NO might be 95 is because your money is locked up for a year. However, I don't believe that actually makes Walker YES have a value of 5, I think that makes the value of the entire contract 95. I know that every NO share has a YES share to balance it out but if nobody's buying at 5, the value isn't 5, it's just people selling NO at a slight loss here.
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Oct 13, 2015 03:28
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Bernie YES on winning the debate surged up to 65 briefly so irrationality is the name of the game.
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Oct 13, 2015 10:35
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just sold my first shares of Bidenrun NO at 50, feels good man
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Oct 13, 2015 22:05
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Zeta Taskforce posted:But I'm going against you for Paul Ryan. Betting that the establishment manages to guilt trip him into doing it The Biden argument
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Oct 14, 2015 17:07
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Sold my 60 shares for a total loss of about $4.00. I'm proud of you. I know I'm some kind of gambling addict because the the hundred dollars I made in four hours last night buying at 50 and selling at 60 is way better than sitting at my desk manipulating numbers and making two hundred an hour. EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 19:28 on Oct 14, 2015 |
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Oct 14, 2015 18:56
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I actually sold my entire Biden NO stake for between 50 and 60, I might buy again in the future though.
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Oct 14, 2015 19:40
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Vox Nihili posted:That's a reasonable move, though waiting another 24 hrs or so would probably have made you a good chunk of change more. Yeah I feel like I play this game a lot. For instance: EngineerSean posted:just sold my first shares of Bidenrun NO at 50, feels good man feels like an idiot when it's 60 six hours later
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Oct 14, 2015 19:47
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Abel Wingnut posted:which means he can only lose .3%. do you really think no one else will lose more than .3%? Yeah which is why the NO bet is a good bet even at 95%, the only possibility for a loss exists with Biden saying "I'm completely out" and everyone else seeing a gain that Chafee doesn't see.
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Oct 14, 2015 20:15
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Aliquid posted:The trick is to not think of unrealized potential as a loss. That's how stock traders go crazy. I am glad I am not a stock trader, but then again they only have forty hours a week of watching stocks rather than a hundred sixty eight.
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Oct 14, 2015 20:17
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who that Joe Biden would call would say "Nah, don't run Joe, just not worth it"
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Oct 15, 2015 23:52
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Jewel Repetition posted:Doesn't predictit itself "buy" your orders for a dollar when that happens? It's unlikely that PredictIt would close the market before the price hit 90.
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Oct 16, 2015 00:36
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Fuschia tude posted:Read the rules again. What are we missing here?
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Oct 16, 2015 03:51
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Necc0 posted:The only thing that can close the market is him submitting FEC papers. Saying he's not going to isn't sufficient for that condition to be met. Oh yeah, I figured he was saying that it was the other way (that somehow it would magically close immediately).
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Oct 16, 2015 04:57
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I definitely prefer the total one to the one that says I'm -$80 right now.
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Oct 16, 2015 18:46
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Zeta Taskforce posted:He's doing everything except going to debates, giving his stump speech, doing town hall discussions in early states, fundraising, ad buys. But other than that he's doing everything He hired a staff and hasn't said no, what more do you want out of the guy?
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Oct 16, 2015 22:20
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Concerned Citizen posted:I mean, if you want to invest in Biden No, sure. I feel very certain he will run, though, and he will announce it soon. I think you guys are just ignoring some clear indicators. You could still make like $600 if you bet $850 today.
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Oct 16, 2015 22:41
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I'm pretty much all tied up in the Chaffe NO and Webb NO bet for worst polling bump from debate, but Bernie YES at 80 and Hilary YES at 10 seems like a pretty good bet for worst polling bump from debate as well.
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Oct 18, 2015 23:14
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Looks like the debate poll market is turning on its head. Sell your Chafee NO for biggest loser shares!
EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 12:23 on Oct 19, 2015 |
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Oct 19, 2015 12:21
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Is there a cached version of that Wapo article? Just want to see how much they have made up ready to go.
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Oct 20, 2015 01:54
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Gyges posted:All I've seen are screen shost from phones because they took it down real quick. haha yeah that's pretty good
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Oct 20, 2015 02:00
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I sold my Bernie.LoseDebate NO shares for 20, locking in a total profit of 200 assuming that Hillary isn't actually the biggest loser. Now I just have to worry about this one
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Oct 20, 2015 04:00
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They dropped the IBD 18 poll for Bernie on RCP and Bernie dropped 80 points like instantaneously. So glad I sold those Chafee NO shares for 79c yesterday.
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Oct 20, 2015 15:06
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my brain says no but my heart says run biden run
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Oct 20, 2015 16:21
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Just went past 50c, very tempting to sell now.
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Oct 21, 2015 17:14
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I'm watching this now and ready to dump shares at a moment's notice, haha. e: yay for my wallet, boo for Bernie's chances
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Oct 21, 2015 17:17
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lelandjs posted:Ok, dumb question here I'm sure but what's the point of selling at .97 now? Because there's a chance that someone will buy them and you'll get your money sooner? For the poll ones it's a necessity, since not only might RCP not update at the right time, but PredictIt might pull their results at the wrong time. They've been wrong more than 3% of the time.
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Oct 21, 2015 17:25
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Zeta Taskforce posted:The site crashed so I may or may not have put in a sell order for everything at 98. Yeah I'm in the same boat, but 2000 x $0.02 is only $40 and I'm still over the moon even if I miss out on that.
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Oct 21, 2015 17:32
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fronz posted:Suck it nerd I think he was in the Biden YES camp so if he made a profit then that's fantastic news.
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Oct 21, 2015 17:33
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"PredictIt is down? Okay PredictIt is down, I'm going to keep talking until I can buy 85000 shares of myself running for president, then announce."
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Oct 21, 2015 17:41
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pathetic little tramp posted:Question is when will the market resolve? Predictit can determine the market to have resolved earlier, so they could close it right now. Should I wait for that and get my full 900 dollars or just sell for 99 and make off with 891? I did manage to cancel my sell @ 98 but I'm opting to get the money sooner @ 99 so I can lose it in other markets.
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Oct 21, 2015 18:05
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