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Now you made me check and lol @ these markets giving a higher likelihood of a Republican 370 sweep than Texas turning blue
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Nov 4, 2016 22:58
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I'm for real excited to have as close to a real 'control' experiment as possible on how much GOTV actually matters. Will it be nothing? Will it be a landslide?? Who knows!
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Nov 4, 2016 23:00
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whatever7 posted:Putin's hackers son. For what it's worth we've all been a bit deliberately blind to the fact that Republicans are controlling a lot of key swing states and have made it perfectly clear there's no low to low for them Necc0 has issued a correction as of 01:51 on Nov 5, 2016 |
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Nov 5, 2016 01:46
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jarofpiss posted:if i had known how much money i was going to dump into this dumb website i probably wouldn't have voted third party in tx. going to be really hoisted by my own retard if it's close and she loses lol Now you understand why Dems get so pissed at people voting third party who should know better?
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Nov 5, 2016 16:43
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In other news it looks like the markets are slowly returning to sanity. I imagine from this point on it will be a constant march towards 99 or 1 depending on the market. If you don't plan on holding until the electoral college makes their formal vote I recommend queueing up your sell orders now.
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Nov 5, 2016 16:45
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showbiz_liz posted:Can you explain this a little more? I'm pretty new to PredictIt. A lot of these markets aren't actually going to close and settle on Nov 9th. They're going to wait until the electoral college actually votes which won't be until two months after the election on Jan 6th. So what will happen initially is all of the markets will spike up to .99 or down to .01 the night of the election as people either flee to grab what few pennies they still have, cash out to get their money two months ahead- selling their shares at .99 instead of waiting another two months for the full dollar, or jumping IN to the market to grab up all the free pennies off the people cashing out. What will happen after is instead of a dance over what the 'correct' price of the event actually occurring is, it'll instead be a balance between people wanting to get their money out without having to wait and other people wanting more than a penny on the dollar to hold on to it for them. At this point the price will drop from 99/01 to maybe 95/05 and then slowly trickle back up as the actual closing date gets closer. SO! If you're going to want your money asap after the election I recommend you put sell orders for all your shares at .98 or .99 right now to get as far ahead in line as possible. If you don't mind waiting an extra two months for that last penny or two then don't worry about it. Just keep in mind that if you change your mind after the election you're going to have a HUGE line to get behind or bite the bullet and sell off your shares at .94-.96
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Nov 5, 2016 18:00
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Fidel Castronaut posted:Does anybody know if it's "first in, first out"? I bought all of my Hillary wins shares when she got ill and put 99c sell orders in around that time. I bought into Florida last week and also put sell orders in immediately. So, is there a queue of sorts where my shares will sell before somebody who put their sell orders in after me? It's FIFO for each 'price point', yes If you look at the 'available shares' in any of the markets where you have sell orders you'll see the price you placed sales at split into three rows instead of one: the row closer to the current price is all the shares in front of you in line, the row further is all the shares behind you. The ones in the middle are yours and should be highlighted
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Nov 5, 2016 18:07
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Discospawn posted:On the other hand, there is bound to be a huge amount of volatility on election night proper, especially when polls close and networks don't call states immediately. You can try to play this extra bit of insanity to increase your profits (e.g., you could buy TX.REP.NO at a low price on Nov. 7th, and then when Texas polls close and the networks say it's too close to declare a winner at first, see if you can double your money as people panic sell out of fear). I have all my shares set to sell at .99 I plan on taking the winnings and turning them right back into all the markets once they inevitably drop back down to ~.95 as people look to cash out. Want to get one last squeeze out of this site before I finally cash out myself
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Nov 5, 2016 18:15
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tangy yet delightful posted:I'm debating on setting up .99c sell orders to cash out quicker and then re-buy into other markets with house money (and possibly some of my deposit - depending on how things look) after the election but before the electoral college does their thing. There's going to be MASSIVE volatility after the election / markets close as tons of money gets dumped into everyone's accounts and they all go nuts with it. There's no telling what will happen but there will almost certainly be good opportunities
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Nov 5, 2016 18:17
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ALSO keep in mind that there's still a chance that Trump will refuse to concede the election. If that happens there's no way PredictIt will close the markets.Social Studies 3rd Period posted:reminder to be careful if you plan on playing election night - no guarantee PI's servers will make it through. don't get caught holding a bag you don't want if (when??) the servers gently caress up
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Nov 5, 2016 18:19
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poppingseagull posted:Yeah that is really interesting to think about. Good point. I agree it will likely settle around 95c and slowly crawl up as we approach January. Well- they're deliberately being ambiguous about their closing conditions so they might actually close it on Wednesday. If your money is already in and you don't feel like waiting I'd recommend placing a sell at .98 or .99 and waiting. There's a good chance that as other people get their winnings they're going to do the same thing as me and vacuum up all the remaining 'safe' markets that are still open.
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Nov 5, 2016 18:46
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Fidel Castronaut posted:Don't make me arzy about Predictit not paying up. It's run by a university, so I can't imagine them taking the money and running. My only concern is that the huge wave of people withdrawing will slow down deposits. Nope. The research is run by a university. The money & infrastructure is a subsidiary of Aristotle
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Nov 5, 2016 19:50
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Dogwood Fleet posted:I'm a little sad that this is going to mostly be over after Tuesday. Is there going to be a decent market for midterms or is this going to be mostly goodbye until 2020? This site was plenty active before the primaries kicked up. If anything it's actually better when there's less activity because it give you more time to take advantage of mis-priced markets.
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Nov 6, 2016 07:04
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Elephanthead posted:Loaded up on Arizona NoRep. Goonspeed 
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Nov 6, 2016 21:26
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Zeta Taskforce posted:What they have is extremely rudimentary. When the Billy Bush video came out I tried to write "Grab her by the pussy" in a comment and it got rejected. 99% sure it's some /pol/ shitlord who's melting down now that the writing is on the wall.
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Nov 7, 2016 13:10
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weekly font posted:So what should us new guys (and potentially low buy-in traders) be looking to do to maximize on election night? Wait for the FUD to hit during the day / as the results come in and keep a cool head & quick finger. Be careful to only play the sides of swings that you wouldn't mind being stuck holding in case the site crashes
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Nov 8, 2016 04:13
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Nosre posted:See my summary post a bit above yours for some simple plays, depending on your risk tolerance. The corncob list will be a good starting place or any other right-wing thought leaders. You'll need to mash refresh on both the market and these threads where we watch them but they will likely latch on to ~anything~ that they can interpret as good news. They won't be able to swing the massive markets more than a few points but smaller state markets may become very volatile as they manage to purchase through the 'walls' To identify a 'thin' market that's probably going to swing like crazy keep an eye on the open orders. You'll notice a 'clumping' around wherever the price currently is that buyers have to chew through in order to get any significant motion. Things get interesting when the walls in BOTH directions manage to fall. The small amount of outstanding shares allows the rush of new purchases to cause massive swings in price. That's how you can identify them at least. I'm generally an extremely conservative better so I almost never play with hot markets. Someone like Vox can hopefully chime in on how to best exploit them.
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Nov 8, 2016 13:27
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dangling pointer posted:I've got 50 on 400+ EV Alright you guys are getting sort of silly Or maybe I'm gonna be sticking my foot in my mouth on this later tonight
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Nov 8, 2016 15:04
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Vox Nihili posted:Probably because it is full up and they'd rather direct newcomers to markets they can actually participate in. Yup it's this. Dogwood Fleet posted:To the people who have stupid amounts of money tied up in this, are you mostly using house money at this point or are you dumping huge amounts of your own cash into Predictit? I'll have enough money in it that vacuuming determined but unsettled markets will be profitable enough to be worthwhile. Gonna let it grow for a bit before cashing out
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Nov 8, 2016 17:49
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jarofpiss posted:when should we start seeing these markets go off the rails? i need to be sober enough to handle money but also drunk enough to survive this night. this is quite the tightrope i'm walking They might not. The markets will only go nuts when there's a ton of uncertainty. If everything winds up being a clean cut tonight then it'll be boring. Keep an eye on results that stay near 50/50 as the tallies come in and also watch the 'biggest movers' page.
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Nov 8, 2016 21:51
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So for example apparently the WV gubernatorial is going bonkers : https://www.predictit.org/Browse/BiggestMovers
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Nov 8, 2016 21:58
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jarofpiss posted:god drat fuckin florida!!! Oh what you thought the swings would be easy? 
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Nov 9, 2016 02:59
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In case I'm permabanned before I wake up tomorrow Vox gets to be the new OP torchbearer. Unless he's gonna get perma'd as well in which case maybe a cop? Idk
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Nov 9, 2016 06:08
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Grizzled Patriarch posted:All those insane bastards gambling months of rent and food on Trump are going to be rich. What a world. Hey they definitely needed it 
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Nov 9, 2016 06:15
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Yeah I took a pretty massive hit but my REP.370.NO, Virginia, and all the Republican contenders (and Bernie) that I bought against at their peaks and still hold shares of will act as a nice consolation prize. Will only be down $400 of my initial buy-in when I first started here. :\
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Nov 9, 2016 06:43
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| # ¿ May 14, 2024 00:16 |
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Vox you called so many other markets well ahead of time itt that by now when it was almost all on the line I should have listened to you but I didn't want to believe that this country was capable of this
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Nov 9, 2016 06:44
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