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Any chance that money is going to be returned to the Venezuelan government?
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Dec 22, 2015 20:21
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Venezuela: Ahora ofreciendo la inmundicia
Squalid fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Dec 22, 2015 |
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Dec 22, 2015 20:31
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Kavak posted:M. Discordia is as dumb as Borneo Jimmy but as long as both keep posting here we need the counterbalance.  I just skimmed his post history and I counted at least seven times where he called for murdering Maduro/communists/PSUV, and that's not even counting all the dark references to the necessity of a rightwing counter-revolution. Is this kind of violent mania typical of Venezuelan politics? Jesus Christ
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Jan 12, 2016 02:59
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What does it mean to be in a state economic emergency? Did it give the government extraordinary powers or are they just reiterating that the budget is hosed?
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Jan 15, 2016 19:10
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The was a US Senate hearing a few weeks ago on the future of oil prices and supply, and one of the economic experts they brought out (I think he was from some UN or WTO Energy group) stated there was a high likelihood of disruptions in Venezuela's oil exports due to labor or political unrest. This was solely in the context of discussing the future supply of crude, so it didn't sound like political posturing. So do you guys think this is very likely? What's going to happen if there's a default?
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Feb 3, 2016 17:31
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Chuck Boone posted:Also, how does that logic even work? How is cutting off whatever little food and medicine was trickling in to the country going to result in factories being built in the country? Clearly, the PSUV has chosen to put its economy back in the hands of the free market. It's just supply and demand: So Simple!
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May 14, 2016 22:41
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fnox posted:The reason why I'm going to Kristianstad is because they have CS programmes in English there, I could eventually move if necessary. Malmö is nearby, and it is the third largest city in Sweden, it's also right next to Copenhagen, there's a bridge connecting them. Good luck, the weather is terrible but the cities and towns are beautiful clean and safe.
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May 19, 2016 20:00
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Can you recommend any specific books or articles on Venezuelan history? English or Spanish language
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May 21, 2016 05:14
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El Hefe posted:Maybe they just send the poo poo doctors here then, but I can quite confidently tell you that most Venezuelans don't trust Cuban doctors. I've heard in terms of training and knowledge some Cuban doctors are more comparable to nurses or other medical aides than M.D.s in most nations. This is from a doctor and nutritionist who worked with one in Nicaragua.
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May 30, 2016 18:18
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manchego posted:Feels strange to type this out, but how does someone with no more fucks to give go about arming themselves and starting militias in Venezuela? lol compared to places like Venezuela America has just about the most orderly and consistently enforced property rights possible. I visited a village in Costa Rica founded about 20 or 30 years ago when a group of a hundred or so people got together and just seized an entire plantation whose American owner had fled the country to evade drug charges. Getting guns is simple, you just have to know someone in the army or police. They can sell you whatever you need.
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Dec 16, 2016 01:19
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Those videos posted today look they could have been taken during the Arab spring or during Slobodan Milosevic's ouster in Serbia. I don't see much in the way of a future for the Bolivarian Republic.
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May 4, 2017 03:11
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This seems like a new phase of popular resistance to the Venezuelan government. Do you think the police are going to start getting targeted wherever they appear, or just during protests? In popular revolutions typically the penultimate phase before state institutions defect and coup the regime or a civil war breaks out is removing police and other civil authorities from the street. once the police disappear from the streets there's no turning back.
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May 17, 2017 04:54
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Cuba's economy has grown by something like 7% per year on average since 2000 while its population stayed relatively flat. I don't think there are any accurate statistics for Venezuela after 2013 but from some IMF/World Bank estimates on wikipedia Venezuela managed about 5% over the same period (i.e. up to 2015), but also increased its population by 20%.
Squalid fucked around with this message at 03:29 on Jun 23, 2017 |
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Jun 23, 2017 03:26
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ISIS CURES TROONS posted:The VP of Venezuela, basically Maduro's #2. He has deep ties to the narcotics smuggling rings in the region and also to Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah. Though that's nothing new for Venezuela-- even during the Chavez administration there were regular flights between Iran, Syria and Venezuela, which carried drugs, money, weapons, and terrorist shitbags. uh. . . I mean I could totally believe Venezuela is involved in money, drug, and weapons dealing with Iran and Syria but that article rather quickly takes a turn for the insane quote:"Venezuela's future is uncertain, but what is certain is that Islamic extremism has officially taken greater executive control of a national government in Latin America," Humire wrote in an e-mail to Business Insider. "A goal it has had for decades." Hrm. Well I guess they may be assisting Iranian agents but yeah, not going to trust weirdo rightwing think tank guy.
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Jun 25, 2017 01:10
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Chuck Boone posted:Anyway, I suppose Occam's razor compels me to think that theory #1 is the correct one, and that Perez and his buddies are just a bunch of dummies who've watched too many movies and rolled a one on their mission. Personally I'd guess that they never had the intention of doing anything more than making some noise and getting some press. Buzzing the courts was a good way to get people watching their video condemning Madura. At least it was more dramatic than slinking out of the barracks at midnight and disappearing.
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Jun 28, 2017 16:48
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They do raise an interesting point, is there any evidence of US intelligence operations in Venezuela? Statements by government officials, suspicious flight plans, leaked memos, etc? Typically in these cases, for example counter Sandinista operations during the 1980s, US politicians and operatives can't keep their mouths shut and will often even boast of their subterfuge, even if only anonymously to the Washington post.
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Jun 28, 2017 20:52
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Munin posted:Look at all the stupid or troll that's coming out to play now Venezuela has briefly hit the headlines again. I think it's pretty telling that for all the hand-waving about economic and political subversion, I've never seen any even remotely plausible evidence events in Venezuela aren't being entirely driven by domestic forces. The PSUV had ten years of massive oil rents which they could have used to build an economy that could weather oil price shocks. Instead Maduro is now selling the country to Goldman Sachs at bargain basement prices. If you think Venezuela is going to be able to repudiate these bonds if Maduro is replaced, well Goldman Sachs has proved itself adept at manipulating policy in Washington so as to ensure nothing stops them from squeezing the last few drops of blood from little stones.
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Jun 29, 2017 04:34
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Bob le Moche posted:I love how I've been called both a "jacobin reader" and a "chapo guy" in this thread, it's very cute how you folks think opposing imperialist intervention was invented in the 2010s I was asking earlier but could you explain your reasoning behind characterizing the current Venezuelan opposition as a color revolution, with the implication that it is funded by western institutions? To be honest I would expect American support for the Venezuelan opposition, I just haven't seen evidence for it yet.
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Jun 29, 2017 06:01
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fnox posted:I hate that he gets any sort of public attention, to be frank, he's yet to do anything, yet people are hailing him as some sort of messiah, which is in itself a bad sign. One would have thought that by now the Venezuelan people would have learned not to trust military strongmen with civilian affairs. Guy knows how to get media coverage that's for sure. Do you think he's trying to build an army with which to fight an insurgency?
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Jul 14, 2017 05:55
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fnox posted:I doubt he could mobilize an entire army, not only because I don't see any officers backing his very improvised plans, but because the members of the military who aren't brainwashed, for the most part, actually believe they shouldn't get involved in civilian affairs. I knew a Venezuelan Special Forces soldier, and he told me precisely that, that he and the rest of his division only do as they're told, they choose for the most part to forget about politics while they're in the service. My late Air Force Captain uncle told me the same many years ago. Maybe some have had a change of heart now but I doubt any important portion of them actually believe they will make things better by starting an armed coup. I agree, but I don't think he's trying to appeal to the army really, which is why he had to desert in the first place. Since the unrest started this year I've been hearing increasingly aggressive noises. Last week there was a fellow on the radio who had been shot in the gut with a marble. Asked if he had any regrets his just said that he wished he and his fellow protesters had been armed so they could have defended themselves. It sometimes comes up in this thread how people are frustrated with the opposition for going so slowly, or seeming corrupt themselves. Among some at least I get the impression there's a thirst for more dramatic and radical action. That desire to overthrow the PSUV by any means nessary. Now obviously Oscar Perez hasn't really done anything of consequence besides trend on twitter. However, whenever anyone thinks to themselves "I want to fight to overthrow Maduro but the PSUV will sell us out again, what do I do?" They'll think of Perez and seek him out. His putting his face out there in these videos, showing himself armed, an outlaw and making himself a magnet for the most radical and impatient opponents of the government. If he can avoid getting killed and the army doesn't coup Maduro soon, it seems likely he'll be able to build a group capable of organized violent resistance.
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Jul 16, 2017 04:29
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Hey I hope you get better soon fnox, you haven't had any trouble getting antibiotics have you? Good luck to your family in all their endeavors
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Jul 25, 2017 15:05
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Peel posted:he does explicitly say they are 'working hard' to make sure it is 'stable and democratic', which is not a combination of concepts I particularly like in the mouth of the CIA There's a well rehearsed script for this kind of work, I suspect most American effort is focused into efforts similar to those which led to the electoral defeat and overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000 by an opposition coalition. There's a rough summary of US efforts then here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otpor!#Revelation_of_U.S._involvement In Serbia America pressured the diverse opposition parties to form a grand coalition against Milosevic. American money helped them organize party activists and fund campaigns, while they also benefited from technical and strategic expertise from professional American marketing firms and campaign managers. This sort of activity is primarily handled through State and private contracting firms and nonprofits. CIA would be more likely to focus on developing contacts within the army and government. I haven't seen any indication of more aggressive activity but if that yahoo who stole a helicopter can find a CIA handler he's likely to at least get some pocket change for recruiting supporters if not actually arms just yet.
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Jul 27, 2017 02:48
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Peel posted:Isn't US State currently pretty rudderless right now? Trump has done a number on it. Well USAID's page listing pro-democracy funding for Venezuela looks like it hasn't been updated since November 9th, 2016 and their most recent figure is from 2015, so yeah seems like it. A lot of this stuff is handled through private contractors or semi-independent organizations and there's a lot of overlap in strategy with intelligence agencies I think. Identifying a serious anti-government campaign by the US as it unfolds is not easy, but a really expansive operation today might resemble say the 2004 Haitian coup d'etat. I would be surprised if anything went that far, if only because given the last 15 years I think its clear the US security establishment has judged the Venezuelan government mostly harmless. Given Trumps allergy to humanitarian concerns and spending I doubt he's going to be interested in any expensive efforts for the benefit of Venezuelan democracy. I could be wrong of course.
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Jul 28, 2017 03:19
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JailTrump posted:There are no social services now why would they have any in the future? The government spends a lot of money that benefit people directly, like the gasoline subsidy. Gas subsidies are about the stupidest most wasteful form of social spending possible for myriad reasons, but cuts to such programs are quickly felt. Weirdly it seems like Venezuela's shortages are already a product of austerity of a sort. With foreign currency so scarce in Venezuela, it has been prioritized to pay foreign creditors rather than to import food and other trade goods.
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Aug 3, 2017 04:59
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AstraSage posted:I also could tell another factor about the whole agricultural mismanagement, but I don't want to bore anyone with family anecdotes about rice... Haven't there been issues with price controls preventing farmers from selling their product at a profit? Like distributing land to people isn't going to work if you then force them to sell at a loss.
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Aug 3, 2017 05:03
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fnox posted:It is VERY hard to disseminate rumours from truth, considering all of the remaining sources on the ground mostly use Twitter to communicate, but it appears that there is indeed a military rebellion underway. Just at Fuerte paramacay or do you mean more generally?
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Aug 6, 2017 16:02
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BBC reporting the incident at fuerte paramacay was probably not an effortto seize the whole base, but was rather a smash and grab attempt to abscond with arms and other military supplies. Their correspondent believes it probably succeeded.
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Aug 7, 2017 18:31
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ThisIsWhyTrumpWon posted:More and more cracks are appearing along the lines of the MUD coalition. I feel like if the MUD fall apart or fail to enact some kind of collective directed strategy, it guarantees there will be an increase in violence. If MUD can't convince people there's coherent strategy to replace the government, more and more people will turn away from them and choose the path of violent revolution. If anti-government energy can't be channeled into productive activity young angry men are going to take matters into their own hands.
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Aug 11, 2017 04:48
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elgatofilo posted:Long gone are the days where an immigrant could come to this country and expect their second-generation children to be fully assimilated "Americans" with no further ethnic identities. Those days never existed.
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Sep 22, 2017 15:44
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Sinteres posted:The fact that he's evaded capture kind of does make it seem like he must have some support within the armed forces or something, but if there's a sizable amount of support for him you'd think they'd just overthrow the government already. That whole situation just seems bizarre, and I don't blame people for having conspiracy theories about what's going on there at all. A lot of Venezuelan posters have described how effectively the Chavez and Maduro administrations cultivated the support of the army and other instruments of the state through patronage. However that kind of graft also has the side-effect of degrading these organizations usefulness when they are needed to face outside threats. When promotion is decided by ideology or personal relationships, it degrades professionalism. When soldiers and police earn their living by shaking down grocery stores or smuggling, they have less interest in the hard-work of intelligence gathering needed to detect anti-government groups like that headed by Oscar Perez. This is one reason dictatorships will often appear most secure just before the fall, as the delicately balanced system of fear and graft holding the system together collapses. Perez is playing a very savvy media game if nothing else. The way he emphasizes that he stands with the army while promising to violently stand against the colectivos is some deft rhetoric. I'm not sure of what to make of his religious statements. Venezuelans, do they have any obvious political connotations to you? Thus far we haven't seen much evidence that he has any substantial backing. I counted five men including Perez in the video. Clearly they have plenty of arms now, but what are they going to do with them? If Perez wants a national uprising I suspect he will have to organize it himself, and that's going to require his movement to scale up a lot from here, which will inevitably lead to bloody encounters with the police and army.
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Dec 20, 2017 03:09
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Furia posted:Chavez used to make mention of Jesus in his speeches. I don't think he did it often (don't really remember, to be honest), but when he did he really went to town with it. At some point this lead to his wandering jews comment, which can be most charitably described as "peculiar". No I see where you are going. Goofy religious stuff is just normal from aspiring politicians 
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Dec 20, 2017 17:16
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Blue Nation posted:Most of the people where I live bought into the lie that the Petro will help the economy and there are investors ready to put their money in Venezuela. Do you think any Venezuelans are going to use the Petro?
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Feb 25, 2018 04:10
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Given that Donald Trump has repeatedly denounced nation-building, and all information available about his foreign policy seems to support the notion that he is serious about rejecting it as a US policy, any kind of direct military intervention in Venezuela would seem extraordinarily unlikely in the foreseeable future. Barring a dramatic shift in rhetoric from this administration such a move can be discounted. This isn't to say a more aggressive effort at regime change isn't possible, but if the United States did so it would almost certainly involve infiltrating and coopting the NBAF. The history US backed coups does not support the notion that any government installed through one would be less corrupt or more interested in supporting democracy than one backed by another government. The "installation of a Chinese-backed authoritarian regime" seems like a very remote possibility assuming this means a regime that is more authoritarian and more heavily backed by the Chinese than the status quo. The Chinese government has been pretty consistent in its policy of not exporting revolution. Venezuela already owes China billions of dollars it is struggling to repay, and I see little reason to believe the Chinese would be eager to give more money to some hypothetical future regime that is even less stable and less solvent. Squalid fucked around with this message at 04:44 on May 12, 2018 |
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May 12, 2018 04:41
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Mr. Sunshine posted:It's a pretty thorny philosophical problem, actually... I was curious how well it matches up with theoretical definitions of socialism. Not sure of the best way to measure this, but Wikipedia lists the proportion of a country's labor force that works in the public sector: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_sector the statistics for Venezuela are from 2014, and I suspect it has increased since then with the decline of private industry, but it still probably hasn't changed that much. 29% of the Venezuelan workforce was employed in the public sector, which puts in squarely between Denmark and Sweden with 31 and 26% respectively. Contrast with Cuba at 77%, and China at 50%. I could not find comparable statistics for Bolivia in five minutes googling, however I did find that roughly 75% of Bolivia's employment is informal, which, assuming there's no informal public sector employment, means public sector employment must not exceed 25% and is probably considerably lower. Though I could be completely off base. Obviously this is far from the whole story regarding how "socialist" a country is, there's a lot of other factors. The Gulf Monarchies tend to have very large public sectors, with Kuwait's employing 45% of workers. Still though, it does allow for some comparisons.
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May 25, 2018 06:25
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Venezuela is in trouble: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-pdvsa-contract/venezuelas-pdvsa-mulling-force-majeure-on-oil-exports-sources-idUSKCN1J132Q quote:Venezuela’s state-owned oil firm PDVSA has told some customers that they must send vessels equipped to accept ship-to-ship oil transfers rather than load at its ports. If they do not accept the terms, PDVSA is considering force majeure, in essence declaring its contracts incapable of being fulfilled, the sources familiar with the matter said.
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Jun 8, 2018 06:12
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So uh. . . I might have been wildly off on my assessment of Trump's policy preferences regarding Venezuela. Paracaidas posted:Did I miss discussion on this? Because
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Jul 4, 2018 07:52
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Blue Nation posted:I've begun to trade milk for fruits and to occasionally pay a mechanic to fix my bike. Are you able to feed your cows with pasture and hay produced on your own fields or do you supplement with a feedstock? I assume getting commercial feed must be very difficult right now. I imagine raising pigs or chickens would be a nightmarish what with how unreliable access is to foreign currency
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Jul 29, 2018 03:55
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CAPS LOCK BROKEN posted:Maybe you should read the article I posted. A single subsidiary of pepsico controls more than half the nation's supply of corn flour. The firms are still producing and introducing new products, the question is why aren't they bringing them to market? Could you provide some more context to this quote? Is it taken from a State Department address to a Congressional Committee? I was under the impression US sanctions were designed to be limited and punish individuals rather than than all of Venezuela, so its surprising to hear US officials boasting that the country will go into default.
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Aug 5, 2018 07:33
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GreyjoyBastard posted:Formerly Peven Stan also does not seem to realize the details of the four (4) sanctions orders are available on the State Department website and, in fact, pretty much have to be to allow compliance / not lead to ten thousand lawsuits blooming when people get their transactions blocked or suffer criminal penalties because of secret sanctions. I was looking at these sanctions and the restrictions on Americans (or American entitities) purchasing Venezuelan bonds seems like it might be broader and more severe than I first thought. Doesn't this essentially lock Venezuela out of almost all global finance? It also doesn't appear targeted just at state officials but seems to hit the whole Venezuelan economy. How much have these sanctions contributed to the worsening fiscal situation of Venezuela?
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Aug 5, 2018 18:39
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fnox posted:What's true is that Pence toured Latin America recently to discuss Venezuela in particular. I doubt he "demanded" military intervention, more than he just gauged how regional governments would respond to it. They weren't too keen on the idea, and I think they eventually talked down Trump from moving forward with it as he hasn't talked about it any more. Well it was reported Trump raised the subject with several Latin American leaders after a UN meeting last September. However it hasn't before been reported, to my knowledge, that Pence was actively soliciting support for a planned military action. Morales might be exaggerating what Pence said, but this is another signal that Trump is interested in a more heavy handed approach towards regime change in Venezuela.
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Aug 5, 2018 22:33
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