Venezuela: The Empanada Summit

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BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

uninterrupted posted:

Before the worst of the sanctions most Venezuelan expats were well-off professionals

Is that cause and effect? If you had means you probably already got out of Venezuela a while ago, right?

# ¿ Aug 9, 2019 21:15

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# ¿ May 13, 2024 09:59

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Ron Paul Atreides posted:

Frankly, if you wanted to get rid of Maduro? A big program of aide directed at the poorest and most afflicted while dropping sanctions would do a world of good to turn popular opinion firmly against him. That kind of aide doesn't help business interests though, especially international resource groups, which is why that kind of thing is off the table for US policy.

If that�s the one silver bullet that would destabilize the regime, why would they ever allow it to happen?

# ¿ Aug 12, 2019 18:12

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Ron Paul Atreides posted:

How fast do you think that would turn his impoverished base against him? My argument isn't a way to help Maduro. It's to get the support of his people to tilt against him rather than fore. There is a lot of claims of his universal unpopularity and yet the counter protestors were the ones out in droves to support the government. As long as he commands that base of loyalty, there is no scenario where his ouster doesn't completely destroy the country and kill hundreds of thousands.

Right now, the US gives very token gestures while basically having them under an economic siege, and then does stuff like orchestrate the burning of aid trucks instead of actually trying to just help. This has always had the opposite effect, and it's frankly flabbergasting the US keeps trying this method, it doesn't work

Isn�t, speaking in broad strokes, his impoverished base already against him, and only the military and his cronies on his side?

# ¿ Aug 12, 2019 20:30

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

that was the theory of Guaido and company. it did not pan out.

the impoverished base does not like him, but it appears they like the people trying to replace him less.

When support of one side comes with the risk of being murdered, does it influence anything?

# ¿ Aug 12, 2019 20:42

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Ron Paul Atreides posted:

You are discounting the effect of the legacy of Chavez. This stuff doesn't happen on a blank slate, the Venezuelans remember their history and the memory of A) Chavez, who was beloved, and B) previous US antagonism and the general unreliability of the US foreign policy apparatus right now does alot to bolster his numbers. If the US invades, and he becomes the de facto head of the resistance? He'll be a hero for the ages.

Narratives control most of how these types of struggles play out, and right now the US is just helping cement Maduro into place. The US doesn't realize (but really really needs to) that it is seen as the bad guy in international stuff in contemporary geopolitics. That will underpin all relations, especially with weaker and more vulnerable governments.

I wonder what maduro is doing to Chavez� legacy? If he stays in power and continues to murder civilians will it matter if Chavez was popular 20 years ago?

# ¿ Aug 12, 2019 21:00

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Ron Paul Atreides posted:

When we get to 20 years past Chavez maybe it won't. Stuff like this doesn't have to resolve quickly. It can bubble for a decade before something significant happens or it can all rush to a head and explode. Right now though, the veneer of being chosen by Chavez is a factor.

At the protests in February the Pro maduro rally was a tiny fraction of the size of the real protest and it was mostly government workers. I think the shine�s off.

# ¿ Aug 12, 2019 22:47

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Ron Paul Atreides posted:

Mm if you say so. That's not what I remember seeing. Different sources maybe.

Were you there?

# ¿ Aug 12, 2019 23:32

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

536 posted:

Some real revisionist history. The anti-government protests were literal road crowding massive. The anti-gov protests were multitudes of people bigger than the pro-maduro ones, especially when you consider half the pro-maduro supporters were the military in uniform.

I�m sure there were some media outlets saying there were huge pro maduro rallies, just like some media outlets carried the story that Trumps inauguration had more people than Obama�s. Propaganda is a powerful weapon. And when you are running a 20% favorable rating and 60% of the country wants to you step down before any elections, propaganda might be your best weapon. Well besides the death squads. Those are good too.

# ¿ Aug 13, 2019 01:47

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Condiv posted:

I already answered this too. I'm not sure. how are you not getting that? I've said it like 3 times now

This is a problem with a solution, right?

Condiv posted:

working with the trump administration that are levying sanctions and embargoes designed to starve venezuelans.

Humanitarian aid is specifically excluded from the embargo. That means food, clothing, medicine, etc...

BigFactory fucked around with this message at 18:19 on Aug 13, 2019

# ¿ Aug 13, 2019 18:15

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Condiv posted:

no, not really. the US is in the middle of attempting to regime change venezuela and has been for a long time (since at least 2012, but probably earlier). the situation is unclear to me and I don't think it's something I can make a strong determination on yet. making such a determination isn't really necessary either, as whatever the truth is, it doesn't change that the US needs to stop trying to regime change venezuela.

how noble. starve a country and then offer aid that doesn't match starvation you caused.

I would think that a little research in Venezuelan newspapers might help. Just because the situation is unclear to you doesn�t mean you shouldn�t be investigating it, right? I�d think the opposite actually.

# ¿ Aug 13, 2019 18:30

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Condiv posted:

you'd think wrong. the US has been funding propaganda within venezuela for a long while now. it's one of the problems of trying to get a handle on the situation of a country that the US is trying to change the regime of.

Ok, best solution is to just not try then. Got it. Way easier that way!

# ¿ Aug 13, 2019 18:42

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Condiv posted:

oh i'm quite decided on the sanctions and embargo starving people in venezuela. they were implemented for that purpose after all.

What if you�re wrong about that? Would you change your mind on other related issues?

# ¿ Aug 13, 2019 23:41

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Condiv posted:

i'm not wrong about that. even people who hate maduro admit that the sanctions cause worsening humanitarian and economic conditions. even if you think maduro has done irreperable harm to venezuela, the opposition joining hands with the US to make sure things get worse is terrible too.

I�m talking about their intended purpose, not any externalities. Are you able to make an opinion on that or are you looking for more sources of information? If you�re undecided it�s fine, you just seemed very certain that the purpose is to starve people. Can you show your sources if that�s the case? If they�re strong enough to convince you I�d like to read them.

# ¿ Aug 13, 2019 23:53

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Condiv posted:

there was of course this report, though it's not as weighty as US allies stating the sanctions will cause or worsen food and medicine crises: http://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/venezuela-sanctions-2019-04.pdf

of course, you can see the same effects in other places we've sanctioned. iran saw food shortages when the US sanctioned them in 2012 and again in 2019. Cuba is seeing food shortages after the US has been levying extra sanctions on it for providing doctors to venezuela, etc. it's an incredibly common pattern, and it's recognized by people that are definitely not pro-maduro. sanctions cause food shortages, or exacerbate pre-existing ones.

even if maduro is a giant screwup and there were massive food shortages before, the increasingly heavy handed sanctions and now embargo we've laid upon venezuela furthers the starvation of venezuelans. it's unconscionable, and the US should lift all sanctions and grant refugee status to all venezuelans who want it

edit: you specifically asked if I believe the purpose was to starve people, not just the end-effect, and I think the answer is yes. bolton is evil, but he's not stupid. he know's what he's doing and he's smart enough to recognize the effect the sanctions will have. and after his involvement in south american deathsquands in the past, it's obvious he's evil enough to starve venezuelans if it gets him what he wants.

You seem to have your mind made up.

# ¿ Aug 14, 2019 00:22

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Fat-Lip-Sum-41.mp3 posted:

Reverse the numbers if you want to. It doesn't make a loving difference. IT'S NOT RELEVANT TO MY POINT.

Your point might be kinda dumb then.

# ¿ Aug 14, 2019 18:50

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

If you�re Maduro, though, and you�re looking at exile in Cuba/China/Russia or a nice trip to The Hague after you step down voluntarily, what�s going to convince you that your best course of action isn�t to just ride it out as long as possible?

# ¿ Aug 14, 2019 19:09

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

VitalSigns posted:

Foreign aid to feed and provide for people and stabilize the economy.

That sounds better to me than cutting off food imports as leverage to force Venezuela to sell off its industries to foreign interests for pennies on the dollar.

Food imports aren�t cut off and Maduro wasn�t allowing any humanitarian aid until earlier this year, after sanctions were imposed.

China owns most of the Venezuelan debt, so they�re the ones who want to profit on this crisis.

# ¿ Aug 15, 2019 00:34

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

VitalSigns posted:

Even if he wasn't letting in humanitarian aid earlier, that's not an argument against sending humanitarian aid now.

And lol at the implication that the US or at least influential US companies don't profit from US interventions in Latin America. The US just installed all those brutal right-wing governments out of the goodness of their hearts right

It�s a brutal left wing government in Venezuela. The US didn�t install it.

# ¿ Aug 15, 2019 01:09

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Homeless Friend posted:

I can't tell if the crisis is Venezuelans being fed or Maduro being president here. China hasn't sanctioned or stopped food imports (if they exist) has it?

Not that I know of but they clearly don�t want a new government in Venezuela that will default on its debts. They have an enormous investment in Venezuelan natural resources.

# ¿ Aug 15, 2019 01:19

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Homeless Friend posted:

Then, it seems to me, they have little interest in prolonging the crisis since it could precipitate an intervention and a new government, or a deeper crisis but a government unable to service its debts properly. Crisis is pretty good for short term profiteers but I would imagine China primary interest is energy.

They certainly don�t want a US backed government. And the US doesn�t want China and Russia dividing up a country in South America. And maduro�s a murderous, incompetent dictator. There are no good guys here.

# ¿ Aug 15, 2019 01:53

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

VitalSigns posted:

Apparently not wanting a starvation crisis and wanting Venezuela to have a stable economy is bad, somehow (because then Venezuela could pay off its foreign debt).

China and Russia are standing in the way of the Venezuelan people removing Maduro and holding free elections so they don�t lose a few hundred billion. That�s fairly reprehensible.

# ¿ Aug 15, 2019 01:56

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Ron Paul Atreides posted:

Wait, how are they doing that exactly?

By vetoing UN Security Council resolutions.

# ¿ Aug 15, 2019 12:36

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Ron Paul Atreides posted:

And those would depose Maduro how?

International pressure is stronger than US pressure, especially since he�s been negotiating with UN member states who signed on to proposed resolutions.

Do you oppose free and fair elections in Venezuela?

BigFactory fucked around with this message at 14:04 on Aug 15, 2019

# ¿ Aug 15, 2019 13:59

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Pacho posted:

International pressure WAS working until the latest US involvement. The electoral tides turned right-wing in most of south america (and even fashy in Brazil) and Maduro barely had any allies left when they used to count on Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia, Uruguay and Argentina. Brazil and Colombia were saber-rattling. Things looked grim for Maduro and maybe it was a matter of time before he bolted out. Sadly, US involvement made even staunchly anti-Chavismo guys take pause because noone (except actual psycopaths) wants a hell-war in our region and Trump being Trump, you kinda learn to distrust everything he says and supports

Shouldn�t that ramp up pressure then? Why would anyone want to be on trumps radar?

# ¿ Aug 15, 2019 18:44

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Pacho posted:

I think we have different concepts of "pressure". What I meant is pressuring the Maduro goverment into giving up, call elections or just plain abandoning Venezuela and having regional and global groups observe new fairer elections and the reconstruction of the country, because the opposition in Venezuela is too weak. I believe other countries in the region have the power to enact pressure this way because they are neighbours and peers Venezuela has to deal with for trade, diplomacy, assistance, etc. I don't believe US sanctions and the spectre of military intervention help in this regard because they just pressure Maduro and the military heads into being more entrenched, as they see no way out

I guess they should have been a little more persuasive, right? They let the situation get real ugly.

# ¿ Aug 15, 2019 20:32

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Ron Paul Atreides posted:

No. I just don't see how soft political measure from a governing body that has never actually had leverage to do anything would change things on the ground. China and Russia aren't what's keeping Maduro in place.

But they are actively preventing the UN from stepping in.

# ¿ Aug 15, 2019 22:51

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Ron Paul Atreides posted:

Ah, so the China and Russia are standing in the way of the UN authorizing international intervention, not in the way of the Venezuelan people.

Maduro is standing in the way of the Venezuelan people. Well, when he�s not having them murdered.

# ¿ Aug 15, 2019 23:34

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Zidrooner posted:

Every single time you deflect with this poo poo. Oh you're against the embargo? Guess that means you are fine with Maduro killing thousands. It's the same poo poo we saw with Iraq. Oh you're against the invasion? Guess that means you're fine with Saddam killing thousands. Maybe people are simply against making things worse fnox

Fnox is against the embargo.

# ¿ Aug 16, 2019 11:42

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Zidrooner posted:

I would be happy to support an action that puts a stop to Maduro's crimes that doesn't end up hurting the Venezuelan people more. I don't know what that would look like but you admit you don't either. There are however actions being taken right now by the US though that ARE inflicting additional harm on Venezuelans and I think it's useful to voice opposition against such things. Bad action is in fact worse than inaction

The US sanctions convinced Maduro to stop turning away humanitarian aid at the border.

# ¿ Aug 16, 2019 12:07

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Zidrooner posted:

Unless that aid provides more benefit than the deprivation brought on by the sanctions then that's a net negative

Yup it probably does.

# ¿ Aug 16, 2019 12:35

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Ron Paul Atreides posted:

Perhaps he suspected that the trucks may have been carrying arms for para militaries. Like the US has organized, many times before. Perhaps if the US had not established itself as completely untrustworthy for 40 years their involvement wouldn't immediately put a regime into a siege mentality. Perhaps if they stopped organizing assassination attempts that would also help.

So you�re saying maduro is paranoid because he�s been starving and murdering Venezuelans for half a decade and fears retribution?

# ¿ Aug 16, 2019 13:04

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Ron Paul Atreides posted:

Honestly though I don't have time right now to go into exactly how I think I would hope things proceed to resolve this, but the main point is that it cannot be resolved with an F35 flyover. Any direct military involvement from any other state will create a civil war that will kill hundreds of thousands more and leave the country in ruins, likely not to recover for generations

So you probably approve of exhausting non-military options before you get to that completely undesired outcome, right? Like cutting off the ability for top Venezuelan government and military officials to profiteer off the country? Sort of like sanctions?

# ¿ Aug 16, 2019 16:02

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Elias_Maluco posted:

Im prepared to protest on the streets if my fascist prez Bolsonaro decides to intervene along with Trump (like they threatened to do), or if they decide to expel the refugees from Brazil, other than that I dont know how could I have any influence

Would you protest in the streets to show your support of Maduro stepping down peacefully?

# ¿ Aug 16, 2019 16:05

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Mischievous Mink posted:

It's absurd and embarrassing that you think one goon protesting in Brazil would do anything, and that you're going to tell him off for saying he won't do the obviously ridiculous thing.

What good would one Brazilian protesting US military intervention do?

# ¿ Aug 16, 2019 16:52

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

brugroffil posted:

Sanctions are bad and make things materially worse, though

The alternative might just be MOABs and drone strikes. Choose wisely

# ¿ Aug 16, 2019 17:00

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Noshtane posted:

Maduro isn't some hero of the revolution, he is a criminal and a traitor to the socialist cause, so even the most die hard tankie should protest him too.

The dudes posting in this thread all seem to really, really like him It�s weird.

# ¿ Aug 16, 2019 17:06

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

if you are waiting for me to call Maduro good, you will be waiting a long time.

What did he do wrong?

# ¿ Aug 16, 2019 17:12

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

in this case it's more "let the bad at their jobs be the enemy of the full-out monstrous."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.al...4170704105.html

That�s pretty darn bad at your job. Bad day at the office.

# ¿ Aug 16, 2019 17:31

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

yup. astonishingly so.

and yet, the opposition cannot find someone to oppose him with a stance on death squads better than "well, MINE will use power tools."

crazy, huh

When you conduct voter fraud and ban your opponents from elections you end up eventually scraping the bottom of the barrel for opposition, right? Would you run against Maduro if you thought you could be jailed or disappeared?

# ¿ Aug 16, 2019 17:47

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# ¿ May 13, 2024 09:59

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

no question. you go back through my posts you'll find me promoting "the colectivos toss him out on his rear end" as a desirable outcome. not one I put a lot of money on happening, all things considered, but a desirable one. in related news, the guys who tried to start a war between Colombia and Venezuela, on the grounds that they couldn't get Venezuelans to get behind them, are proudly running on We Will Be Worse.

So if the fairy tale outcome won�t happen, what�s next best thing? Assassination? Murked by one of his generals?

# ¿ Aug 16, 2019 18:06

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