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Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Joementum posted:

The Baldwin amendment (expand healthcare plan access) is not agreed to (45-54).

Now we move to the Murphy (D-CT) amendment which would preserve Obamacare for pregnant woman, victims of domestic violence, people with terminal illnesses, etc.

Raskolnikov38 posted:

Is there a "Why the gently caress are we playing this charade" amendment Joe?

Murphy knows it's going to fail, he and the dems just want it on record that the Republicans voted against pregnant woman, victims of domestic violence, and people with terminal illness for all those sweet 2016 political ads.

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Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Gravel Gravy posted:

After the Oklahoma bombing you got checked out by the Feds if you purchased a certain amount of fertilizer.

Guns though :effort:

Can I purchase fertilizer if I'm on the terrorist watch list?

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

ComradeCosmobot posted:

In some bad news for the NRA, SCOTUS denied cert to a case which contested the legality of bans on semi-automatic assault weapons and large-capacity magazines. This leaves intact a lower court ruling that concluded that such bans are legal.

So that's how many times now gun advocates have tried and failed to strike down a gun ordinance based on a misinterpretation of Heller? I've lost count.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

GalacticAcid posted:

Financial markets behaving rationally, unfortunately.



Sadly enough, a strong Democratic victory in 2016 would probably be the best thing in the world for these companies. Any sales lost due to gun control measures a Democrat controlled Congress could pass would pale in comparison to the surge of sales gained from gun nuts convinced the sky is falling and they need more guns now now now.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

:lol:

Let's deny them embassy services too, just to drive the point home, eh?

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Muscle Tracer posted:

I wonder how many of them are just scared of having to make their own decisions, and are relieved to finally have someone tell them, "You love me! Everybody loves me!"

Don't be fooled, Trump is not an ideological outlier. He's trumpeting everything the right has been feeding to their base since '08. The only difference is that instead of using dog whistles and finding fancy ways to dance around the fact that their stance is basically "gently caress minorities, gently caress women, gently caress the poor", Trump just comes out and says those things to the base's face. And they're eating it right the gently caress up as usual, with the added bonus of Trump appearing more "genuine" to them, because he doesn't dance around the main message.

The Republican establishment is absolutely making GBS threads their collective pants over Trump, and for good reason. If he crashes and burns, he takes the right with him and leaves bare the core ethos of the fringe republican platform on a national stage for all to see. If he succeeds, then the inmates are running the asylum, as the radicals go from a convenient tool to wield against the left to the ones at the wheel.

All the pundits like to go on about how the establishment is just as afraid of Cruz and Carson as it is of Trump, but I doubt that quite a bit. While still both insane in their own special ways, Carson and Cruz are at least making an effort to play the game. Trump absolutely refuses to play ball though, and he is going to keep on giving voice to the absolute shittiest beliefs of the Republican base until it gets him the nomination.

Sydin fucked around with this message at 03:17 on Dec 8, 2015

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Grouchio posted:

Now that Obamacare's dead (unfortunately) will that shut the GOP up about it already and maaaybe stop filibustering for governmental shutdowns?

Except Obama is going to veto the poo poo out of the bill and the right doesn't have enough votes to overturn it. It's yet more empty posturing, and everybody knows it.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

DeusExMachinima posted:

And even if not, the left has like 99% of the anti-nukers.

:argh:

It's really unfortunate too, because proliferation of modern fast breeder reactors would solve a lot of issues. The issue is a complete non starter from the left, though.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Trabisnikof posted:

Actually, it may be easier to stabilize the Middle East if we don't stop Global Climate Change http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/11/persian-gulf-temperatures-may-be-at-the-edge-of-human-tolerance-in-30-years/

:getin:

If Europe thinks the refugee crisis is bad now...

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

zoux posted:

New USA Today national poll:


Caveats about polling not mattering this far out but it matters in this way: everyone below Bush is likely at the kiddie table next week. Also adios Carson.

Same poll said that 68% of Trump supporters would follow him if he ran third-party. So, bet that.

Looks like Republicans are in agreement with Fiorina that she's a lump of coal in the stocking.

weekly font posted:

Trump losing the primaries and running third party would give me a boner the size of a hypothetical Mexican border wall.

Also this.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

zoux posted:



HMMMM ARE THEY BUDDIES?

Watching the GOP flail around with their pathetic brand of damage control is the most entertaining goddamn thing. :allears:

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

CommieGIR posted:

If Hillary wins and Donald comes up on stage and high five's her, the GOP will explode.

p.sure the whole country would explode.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

JT Jag posted:

He raised awareness with An Inconvenient Truth, but that's really it, he's not the Climate Change Pope or anything.

Don't forget that he invented that filthy liberal breeding ground called the internet.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Radbot posted:

The Pope is Climate Change Pope.

GOP is doing their damndest to stick their fingers in their ears and ignore that, though.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Internet Webguy posted:

The thing about Trump's rhetoric is that it is like doping in baseball in the 90's. There is a gentleman's agreement that nobody will do it because anyone who does will obviously gain a massive advantage over everyone else. So the only time anyone gets upset about it is when you have enough proof to show that the doping is why a certain person is so far ahead of everyone else. So that is my sports analogy.

You're right, though. Trump isn't really saying anything differently than the other GOP candidates. He's just refusing to use the agreed-upon dog whistles, which the media isn't used to and is thus eating up. It's also putting the other candidates in a tight spot, because now they have to walk the line of using the dog whistle while immediately talking down the what Trump is saying, despite it being the underlying message of said dog whistle. It's also why the crazies are all flocking to Trump - to their ears he's the only one with a consistent message that appeals to them.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Mitt Romney posted:

Sam Wang says that it's not just population clustering favoring the GOP in the house, but that redistricting gave about 11 house seats to the GOP post 2010.

http://election.princeton.edu/2015/...tes/#more-13110

Independent redistricting commissions are legal now, at least. It's a baby step, and no red states in their right mind are going to let it happen to them barring legislation at the federal level, but it's something. Hopefully by the time the next census has rolled around we can roll back a little bit of this bullshit.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

zoux posted:

Cancelling half a million in ad buys is deffo something a serious for president does.

Carson had his 15 minutes and made a complete rear end of himself, and not in the good Trump way. He's eating poo poo and the fact that he's only just realized it is pretty sad.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

zoux posted:



Don't you understand you fools!! It's me you should be covering!! Meeeeee!!!!!!

That's our Jeb!

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

zoux posted:

So Fox and Friends had a guy on today who teaches kids how to go full Carson on active shooters.
http://mediamatters.org/embed/static/clips/2015/12/08/43667/fnc-ff-20151208-activeshooter


Had me as far as getting wrist control of the shooting hand (although jumping in front of the shooter to do it is :lol:) but why does she then immediately let it go and start throwing spaz punches?


Pretty sure those two guys closest to the camera are texting, too.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute
What even happened to Fiorina? She went from dark horse to nobody, and without any major catalyzing event as the cause. Did the GOP base just remember at last that they actually hate women?

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

fade5 posted:


Walker, Fiorina, Jeb!, and Carson have all followed the 2012 election style of gaining interest, peaking, and crashing.

Also note how long Trump has been leading.:unsmigghh:

That Carson drop, though. :allears:

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Fried Chicken posted:

Another poll out, this one PPP

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/12/trump-getting-stronger-in-nc-islamophobia-helps-fuel-that-strength.html


Again, conducted prior to yesterday's "policy statement" but in keeping with what we know about Republicans

:911: Religious Freedoms!! as long as it's my religion :911:

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute
On behalf of California democrats, I apologize for Feinstein.

Top Democratic senator will seek legislation to 'pierce' through encryption

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

WE'LL NEVER KNOW WHY HE DID IT, WHAT A CRAZY LONE WOLF, AMIRIGHT PEOPLE?!

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

bobjr posted:

http://www.rawstory.com/2015/12/tennessee-school-wins-right-to-ban-gays-and-women-whove-had-sex-this-is-who-we-are/

Has this been posted yet? It seems like something like this should have been stopped right away.

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that if it's a privately owned university receiving no federal funding, then they can do whatever the gently caress they want.

Not that that would make it any less terrible - if anything the fact that they can get away with it makes it more terrible.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

TheDisreputableDog posted:

Honestly, Trump's unelectable in the general so I'd take the moral victory of running someone else and losing.

The ideal situation for the Dems would be for Trump to win the nomination. The hope would be that the more centrist & moderate faction of Republican votes (they exist, really!) won't come out to vote as a result, which would give the Dems some more breathing room down ticket and the possibility of clawing back some Senate & House seats.

Yes, Trump running third party would almost virtually guarantee a Dem win for the top spot, but Trump supporters are still going to vote Republican all the way down ticket, and having two candidates at odds means a larger number of right-leaning voters are going to come out to vote for the slugfest.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Republicans.txt

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute
So is the Paris Accord a treaty? Because I think there's about a snowball's chance in a 2C hotter Earth of our current Congress ratifying a climate change agreement.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

My Imaginary GF posted:

That's for the judicial branch to sort out. Would the Supreme Court really rule that its illegal to save your state money on prescription drugs?

They would if it directly contradicts existing Federal laws, yes.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Grouchio posted:

1. Are Bernie's chances holding up?
2. Would a GOP-Trump schism benefit or impair moderate Clinton's election chances were she to become nominee?
3. Would Clinton even try to scale back predatory conglomerate bullshit with the media?
4. Why is studying for statistics finals so goddamn hard?
5. Should I stop pouting about bullshit all the time and just give in to the schadenfreude?
6. MIGF could you kindly shut the gently caress up?

1. Sorry, but he never had chances. Maybe if Clinton gets nuked from orbit and the GOP nominates Trump. Even then though.
2. Would certainly benefit in terms of securing the presidency, but has the potential to murder Dems down ticket is it brings more shitheads than usual out of the woodwork.
3. No.
4. Alcohol helps.
5. See 4.
6. Too kawaii to comply.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Adar posted:

You are correct that reality doesn't matter and there is plenty of time left for the next idiot in line, but they are almost out of remotely interesting idiots. Huckabee and Santorum are retreads and Iowans are not voting for a non-idiot candidate so Jeb/Christie/probably Rubio are also out. It's possible Rand catches on, I guess.

I'm seriously really bullish on Cruz right now. There is no scenario where Trump is taking 20% while Cruz is leading in which the party tries to knock him off the pedestal fast enough.

Yeah, the narrative I've seen thrown around a lot is that if Trump weren't grabbing all the attention and whipping the base into a frenzy, Jeb! would be doing far better. The thing is though, if Trump weren't doing it, Cruz would be, and we'd be in more or less the same position just with Cruz riding high instead. The most vocal segment of the Republican base wants crazy, and Jeb! isn't going to give it to them because he realizes that it'd be tantamount to forfeiting the general. Cruz has no such scruples, though.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Mitt Romney posted:

Don't know why everyone keeps citing this +5 Trump poll as reason for Trump's decline. This is actually Trump's strongest showing in the NBC/WSJ poll this entire election so far.

Because he's only +5 ahead of Cruz, whereas in earlier polls he was far out ahead of everybody else, even if his absolute numbers were smaller.

I'm curious to see if Cruz can keep it going, or if he's just having a 15 minute bounce like Carson/Fiorina got.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

So basically:
1. There's still some hope for abortion in this country, even if it is slim. :unsmith:
2. Republicans have no idea what they're talking about when it comes to how healthcare works, what a twist.
3. Republicans are also chickenshit and only hawkish when it means kicking first graders in the head for their lunch money (Invade ISIS! 20,000 troops, oorah!) but not when it means picking a fight with somebody your own size like Russia.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

fknlo posted:

Can someone point me towards info on why a flat tax is dumb/doesn't work? The easier to understand the better.
Sure. Disclaimer: I pulled all of these tax rates out of my rear end to illustrate a point. These are not the actual US tax rates, at least I'm pretty sure they're not, unless I'm psychic. :v:

First off, there are things that all human beings need, regardless of how rich or poor they are, in order to survive. Food, water, clothing, shelter. Everybody, everywhere, needs these things. And these things, unfortunately, cost a lot of money. How much they actually cost varies from location to location, but let's say we take the national average of the cost of these basic necessities for a year. We'll call this the poverty line: that is, it is the bare minimum amount of income a household needs to make annually in order to sustain basic survival. Fall below it, and the government says you can't sustain the most basic livelihood. We'll go with what the Federal Government currently says: and mark this at $24,000 a year.

Now let's say you make a bit more than that annually. $75,000 year, for example. This is a middle class income (usually). These people can cover the basic necessities without worry, and so they can put the remainder of their money towards secondary concerns: choosing housing based on attractiveness rather than affordability, spending more money on entertainment, etc. They can't go too crazy, but unless they really overspend or run into a huge emergency, they can at least cover the basics.

Now let's go even higher, to individuals that make $250,000. Wow, that's a lot of money! Following the baseline we established for necessities, these people can cover it and not have used even 10% of their total income. They have a lot of excess cash, and can spend lavishly without really having to worry about not being able to meet their primary needs, even in the event of emergency.

This is a very simplistic model, but let's take these three examples: a household that makes $24k, one that makes $75k, and one that makes $250k, and compare them using Flat vs Progressive tax.

Progressive Tax with three brackets (0% up to $24k, 15% up to $75k, 25% up to $250k):
1. The $24k family ideally isn't taxed at all, because it's recognized that taking away any income means they will fall below the poverty line, and be unable to sustain even the most basic livelihood. Sucks for the government, but this household is still putting what little money they have into the economy, so it's not as if they're net negative.
2. The $75k family is not taxed on their first $24k (again, because it's needed for basic survival), and then taxed a little bit (15%) on the remainder of their income. This shakes out to about $7650.
3. The $250k family is, again, not taxed on their first $24. They're then taxed 15% up to $75k, and then taxed 25% up to $250k. This is about $51,400.

Flat Tax of 10%
1. The $24k family is taxed $2,400. This causes them to fall below the poverty line, and they cannot realistically be expected to sustain a basic living. So they need to fall back on those evil government welfare programs like food stamps to make up the difference.
2. The $75k family is taxed $7,500.
3. The $250k family is taxed $25,000.

Finally, here's the end results for each of our three households in this Progressive vs Flat tax scenario:
1. For the $24k family, the difference is literally a matter of life and death. It cannot sustain itself under a flat tax, but can under a progressive.
2. For the $75k family, there's barely an appreciable difference.
3. For the $250k family, their taxes double under the progressive model. This may sound bad, but it still leaves them with ~$200k, which is over eight times what the first family makes, and double the second.

Additionally, the flat tax gives the government a big headache, because they're both receiving less tax revenue overall, and have to support the $24k family. So the flat tax only helps households that don't need help, while forcing other households to need help they otherwise wouldn't with a progressive model.

That help?

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Eschers Basement posted:

So, serious question - what is the path to pre-convention victory for any of these guys?

In all polls for the last month, Trump and Cruz together have over 50% of the vote. How would Rubio actually win this without A) forcing one of them out of the race and B) somehow siphoning off 10-20% of their votes? Because I honestly don't see either of those things happening, let alone both - even if someone finally hits Trump in the right way, most of his support is going to fall out to Cruz before it goes to Rubio.

Along those same lines, Cruz can't possibly win until Trump flames out, but despite a lot of hand-wringing, there's no sign of that happening. And Trump's not going to make over 50% of the vote unless the Republican party decides to face to bloodshed and assume that if he's the front runner, he must be electable.

Are we just assuming that the late winner-take-all primaries are going to push one person over the top? Because I don't see an easy way for 50%+1 of the delegates to go to one person.

I know Joementum or Fried Chicken or someone usually comes in and rolls their eyes at the idea that the convention will mean anything, but guys, I think this year is different. :tinfoil:

Pretty sure the general strategy for the GOP Establishment at this point is to make sure that somebody like a Rubio or a Christie can pick up enough delegates that at the time of the convention there isn't a clear majority for Trump/Cruz even if they are at the top of the pack. Then once the delegates are released after the first round of voting they can whip the establishment delegates behind a single candidate and throw money at convince Trump delegates to back them as well to ratfuck him out of the nod. It's clunky and kinda relies on somebody like Cruz to continue to be at parity with Trump in the polls to blunt his lead and segment his base, but it's the best they've got at this point.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

DynamicSloth posted:

Ted Cruz is now the favorite to win the Republican nomination according to predict.org bets.

This is the first time Rubio has fallen off of the lead since October. The betting market had really fallen to a three way tie between Rubio, Cruz and Trump. I'd be hard pressed to come up with better percentage break downs than 33/33/33 myself (that's certainly more realistic than whatever 538 is pushing).

Am I wrong in that from a GOP Establishment perspective, a Cruz nomination is barely any different from a Trump one? I would have thought that even if Trump fizzled out, all efforts would immediately be directed at loving over Cruz.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Good Citizen posted:

A BLM protest in Chicago on Black Friday resulted in this picture

So they're still cool with me

This was posted a page ago, but this.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute
I like baseball because regardless of what I'm doing, I can almost always turn on the radio and follow it in the background. It is the ultimate multitasking sport. The only time you actually sit down to watch baseball is when you plan to get drunk while doing it.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

PhazonLink posted:

Isn't this what happen to boxing?

No, corruption happened to boxing.

e:f;b

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Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Aerox posted:

Is everyone prepared for a glorious post-Christmas miracle????

jeb. is challenging Trump to a one on one debate.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/264328-bush-challenges-trump-to-one-on-one-debate

Hell in a Cell 2016 is going to be fantastic.

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