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Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

GABA ghoul posted:

The truth is that German culture has just a long russophile tradition, substantial anti-american sentiments and good penetration by Russian state propaganda that gets consumed without much critique or reflection. All of this gets expressed in German politics and foreign policy.

It's also culturally out of the question for Germany to defend itself or even meaningfully contribute to its own defense. Defending third countries like Ukraine is even less culturally palatable, particularly when they're in the rightful Russian "sphere of influence".

In addition to the marine guy, other politicians (Ex-chancellor Schröder, Sigmar Gabriel and Klaus von Dohnanyi are some that I know about) have also come out on the side of Russia after being in government. I think this runs deep.

Online newspaper reader comments about the articles covering that marine guy and his "As a Catholic, I think we should join with our brethren in Russia and fight China" rhetoric are about 70-80% in favor across the board from the Zeit (somewhat leftist paper) to the Welt (somewhat rightist paper). His opinion is seen as the pure wisdom of an elder statesman.

Nordstream 2 is similarly untouchable as a great national achievement of Germany, gently caress what other EU countries say.

Considering all that and judging it by its actions, I'm wondering what I would think of Germany as the US president or Ukraine. It's the kind of friend that keeps going on about how much it values your friendship, but whenever you need to call on it, it's unable to make time, doesn't help you and complains publicly about your nerve to ask.

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Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Xarn posted:

Sorry, but wtf is wrong with Germans?

Russian propaganda working on both political sides. The Left never got the memo that it's not properly socialist anymore and the Right likes how white and christian it is.

Also, "Am Deutschen Wesen soll die Welt genesen", which I'd roughly translate as "The German character will heal the world", i.e., it's to the benefit of all other countries to follow Germany's lead. Exceptionalism. Other countries don't really know what's going on, only Germany understands and has to lead them.

Of course, having learned all the right historical lessons, Germany is now the nicest and most peaceful nation. If only all other nations would be so peaceful and insightful!

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

nurmie posted:

[*] six months time span - so, no invasion before the 24th of June, 2022

That's five months.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Paladinus posted:

I really hate that type of twitter person. I worked in the Netherlands for some time, barely speak any Dutch, and have the knowledge of their political situation on the level of wikipedia articles about their major political parties, but I saw The Night Watch at the Rijksmuseum and it really resonated with me, so I will appoint myself as uniquely qualified commentator on all things Dutch.

I would go one step further and say that this also applies to natives of a country. "REAL XYZians like me think that...".

I doubt the opinions or predictions of self-selected insiders are generally better than those of well-educated outside experts. Maybe there's some empirical evidence.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Regarde Aduck posted:

Your post describes exactly why Russia cannot allow the Ukraine to invite hostile Nato assets into Russias borders. I’m going to assume you simply forgot that this is not some distant nation that Russia is picking on. That what Nato thinks is acceptable is that it gets to place weapons right next to Russia. Would the US be ok with Mexico allowing a Russian-Chinese alliance to stage weapons on Americas borders?

What about your hypothetical whataboutism?

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Latvian state views proliferation of Russian language as a national security threat, from which everything else follows. It doesn’t help that many of the governments had Latvian ethnonationalists serve as kingmakers, so on top of the concern above we have some of the harshest immigration and naturalisation laws in Europe.

[...]

Latvia, in contrast, only gave citizenship to those who were residents before the occupation. For everyone else the citizenship was issued on the basis of having a single Latvian citizen parent. Those who didn’t meet the condition were allowed to stay as non-citizens, which is a permanent residency status with no political rights (and which “weirdly” invites discrimination from certain groups). Naturalisation path for them is, simplifying, to pass 2 exams - history of Latvia and Latvian language. We still have a huge number of non-citizens in the country, but that’s a conversation for a different time. For instance, while it’s impossible to not learn Latvian in 30 years even if you just slightly care, Latvian government will not only explicitly deny citizenship rights to Russian veterans, but also to their family members - going as far as to deport them. https://www.refworld.org/cases,ECHR,402b5b034.html

As a country bordering Russia and wich used to be part of the USSR, I would see everyone of Russian descent as one more excuse to be invaded by Russia. Same with everyone who speaks Russian.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

cinci zoo sniper posted:

I can point you to a few political parties where you’d fit right in. I hope you’re white, Christian, and don’t have tuberculosis.

Can you also reason against what I posted?

Russia is stuck in the "thinking" of military expansionism that was the big thing in the first half of the last century. A lot of that was excused by ethnic Russians, Germans or whatever living in the territories to be occupied or that they used to belong to the aggressor at some point.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

cinci zoo sniper posted:

It's not a particularly interesting argument, especially in the context of hypothetical aggressor, Russia, clearly demonstrating that they don't even care to pretend that they're threatening Ukraine to protect Russians in Ukraine.

And this was not the excuse to hold a totally free referendum in Crimea, facilitated by benign forces?

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Elizabeth Cluppins posted:

The security benefits don't justify institutional racism and a society perpetually split across ethnic lines.

I see no reason to believe that being harsher against their Russian population would have saved Ukraine from what happened in 2014. Unlawful occupation finds a way.

But for some reason it doesn't find a way to countries above a certain size or ones that aren't directly adjacent or can actually defend themselves. They're also not going against Norway, for example, because that was never part of the USSR or has a meaningful ethnic Russian population.

I'm not saying that what Latvia does is right or the only possible solution, but Russia follows a tortured logic and I can see why a country doesn't want to play into it.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Gunthen posted:

America's going to be lucky if it hasn't fallen apart in 20 years bud.

China will whatabout itself to the top.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

OddObserver posted:

So what it's actually doing is spreading a manifesto published by a mass murderer and saying we ought to give a listen.

The actual main threat to safety of Russian people is the Moscow government. The #2 threat is the government in Grozny. Those two, after all, are responsible for murdering many of Russian citizens.

Right. "What Putin wants" gets routinely reported as "Russia's interests".

The #1 interest of any country in a dictatorship is to replace the dictatorship with a democratically elected government, and that's an interest the dictator will hardly ever express or pursue.

"Interest" is also a flawed concept because not everything a government or country is interested in is in their best interest or compatible with other countries' interests, which means there are many "interests" that should be ignored.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Neurolimal posted:

Well...as a whole, Eastern Europe outside a few pet countries hasn't been very impressed with capitalist-democracy. If polls are anything to go by.

Ukraine up until eight years ago was certainly not enamored with market economics & a multiparty system (this changed when the country that most benefits from that past annexed a significant chunk of the country). Even now, if I'm not mistaken, Ukraine generally polls unsatisfied with their current system (but are less likely to talk up the USSR, now that its nostalgic capitalist successor is grabbing chunks of the place).

So a system in which people vote and their votes count is "capitalist-democracy", got it. I see no benefit in a discussion with someone who frames it like that.

Also, I meant this as an objective general interest, not as what people said in a poll about a very specific thing that happened in the last few years or so.

That's the problem with the term "interest".There are objective interests (like self-preservation) and other things people think they may want but that ultimately make things worse.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Neurolimal posted:

How many eastern-european states would you argue have moved towards a multi-party iteration of democracy but have not shifted in the direction of capitalism?

There's a pretty obvious insinuation within global politics when discussing Democracy, that being one very specific form of democracy, typically packaged with capitalist reforms. You can count on one hand the number of states that transitioned from Authoritarian Totalitarian Fascist Dictatorship to multi-party democratic communism.

Okay, so if people in a democracy don't choose the system you favor, then it's better not to have a democracy at all. You want "democracy" on rails that can only lead to one outcome.

Which means that you don't want self-determination for countries.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Alchenar posted:

I mean, sanctions on Iraq did make it impossible to rebuilt the Iraqi army from the catastrophic material losses of the first war, which made the 2003 invasion much much easier than it might have been and also kept a lid of Saddam's ambitions to attack the Kurds or have another go at Kuwait.

If you measure sanctions against objectives they aren't intended to achieve then obviously they do not come out looking good.

Also, if sanctions supposedly do nothing or only succeed in uniting the population in supporting their regimes more, then why do these countries keep asking for them to be removed? They should embrace them.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

steinrokkan posted:

Once again the social democrats embarrass and discredit themselves the second they are given a shot at power, the one constant of global politics

Why does this guy have to visit his master and then spout later on how productive the meeting was? The only winning move would be not to play.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

That's too simplistic for me. Nobody said they had already produced the video, just that they were planning to. Wars have been started under pretexts, and Russia runs a lot of disinformation campaigns. The whole "security interests" bullshit is disinformation and a pretext.

I'm not reading this as something that the US government is expecting everyone in the general public to believe, but more as a signal to Russia that they know what Russia is planning and will make it public.

Mr. Smile Face Hat fucked around with this message at 10:07 on Feb 4, 2022

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

mc.schroeder posted:

I’m sure the intelligence is sound, it’s just the smugness with which they announce it that I find hilarious/grating (see also Psaki’s recent statements that were mentioned earlier).

I agree that this butthurt reaction wasn't optimal, even though the journalist probably thought he was hot poo poo asking supersmart questions when he wasn't.

I hadn't read those tweets, interesting how similar they are to what I'm thinking.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Truga posted:

oh no, russia has a video!

Reading/listening comprehension: It was discussed that Russia would make such a video, not have it. It's not always easy to reply to stupid questions in a way that satisfies the person asking them. There's no gotcha in that.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Mr. Sunshine posted:

Like, "western media should dial down the war hysteria, just look at this embarrassing fuckup" is a perfectly legit take re the Bloomberg thing.

Not really, since, as is well-known, major news outlets prepare template stories for major events that are either inevitable (obituaries) or very likely (Olympics opening ceremony, Russia invades Ukraine) so they only have to fill in the details they can't know beforehand once it actually happens.

That's not hysteria, it's simple preparation.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Boris Galerkin posted:

I mean, this is one of those “the US has plans on invading Canada” type things right?

ie: not going to happen but there are actual plans “just in case”

I would read it as within 72 hours of invasion, not within 72 hours from now.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

https://youtu.be/tokZjZRPts8

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Grouchio posted:

Я не собственник!! я не собственник!!
Я продолжаю настаивать, медленно уменьшаясь и превращаясь в початок кукурузы :getin: :getin: :getin:

I'm not cornered, the corn said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/07/world/europe/putin-macron-russia-france-ukraine.html

quote:

Mr. Macron said he had coordinated closely with the Western allies, including the United States and Germany. But some supporters of Ukraine’s pro-Western course have criticized him for being too solicitous of Mr. Putin’s demands. Mr. Macron did nothing to assuage those concerns by telling reporters before his meeting with Mr. Putin that a “Finlandization” of Ukraine was “one of the models on the table.”
The term alludes to how Finland, facing the Soviet Union during the Cold War, was able to maintain independence from its powerful neighbor and survive as a democracy on condition of strict neutrality. A “Finlandization” of Ukraine would imply that it would never join NATO and that Russia would exercise considerable influence over its political options.

I find it fairly notable how nonchalantly Macron is negotiating Ukraine away, but since nobody brought it up here before me, either nobody noticed or it's okay or no big deal. (Of course it's not something that France can just decree, but I'd be beyond pissed at them if I was Ukraine or any other country France pretends to be "friendly" with.)

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Cugel the Clever posted:

Why? I see this line of reasoning brought up a lot and it leaves me perplexed (and, honestly, somewhat suspicious). It's not France's or America's fault that Putin is using the threat of an invasion of Ukraine as leverage to achieve political gains against the West and refusing to treat Ukraine as a sovereign country. If Biden or others sell Ukraine down the river, that's one thing, but the mere act of being forced to serve as more powerful representatives of Ukraine's interests is hardly anything to be upset about (particularly as Western leaders have no doubt been in extensive talks with Zelensky and one another behind the scenes).

There is something appealing about the idea of the West and Ukraine just leaving the phone off the hook, completely ignoring their Russian interlocutors in a clear message to Putin that he'd better poo poo or get off the pot. The West has done nothing to warrant the belligerence, so should walk away from the table entirely and leave Putin to his tantrum (and punish the gently caress out of him if he actually starts throwing punches).

If I understand this correctly, you're assuming the Finlandization has been green-lit by Ukraine or the US and Macron is just the messenger?

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

FishBulbia posted:

people constantly invent German resistance to the Nazis.

Oh there was none? Please do go on, I'll collect the material to submit to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_resistance_to_Nazism.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

FishBulbia posted:

You should read that page.

Thanks for your condescension. You said, without qualification (in two senses of the word), that people "invent German resistance to the Nazis".

Since it actually existed, your generalizing statement is wrong. Mental gymnastics won't make it right.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

FishBulbia posted:

Thing is, you see it constantly in memoirs. People claim "passive resistance" because they left out food for some slave laborers, meanwhile they worked away at the bomb factory. Seriously, go read any memoir account of "ordinary" "apoltical" Germans.

And yet there was much more resistance to the GDR which had an internal security service at least 5 times as large as the gestapo.

You're going in circles. You've made a wrong statement and can't bring yourself to admit it.

East Germany didn't slowly strangle people with piano wire (which must of course be made up because according to you, there was no resistance against the Nazis) and there was no more death penalty anymore in most cases after the 50s or so.

BTW, according to the article you've asked me to read, "It has been estimated that during the course of World War II 800,000 Germans were arrested by the Gestapo for resistance activities." I wouldn't call that such a small number.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

cinci zoo sniper posted:

For clarity, I do not claim that the votes people cast are illegitimate, or that their answers to post-referendum polls are illegitimate. My claims here, distilling, are as follows:

There are some higher-level issues with that referendum beyond whether votes were properly counted or whether it reflects the true will of the population.

Constitutionally and for simple self-preservation, most countries don't allow regions to secede without the approval of the country as a whole, which would commonly be given by a referendum or vote of that entire country. Even then, a proper process is marked by some meaningful amount of time is usually spent for preparing the votes, campaigning, preparing the legal agreements and so on. It's not done under military-enforced duress immediately after and invasion and quick fast in a hurry within the space of a few weeks.

It's fine and somewhat interesting to look into historical data of whether the population of Crimea wanted to be Russian or not, but I got the impression that this is used as some kind of implicit approval of the annexation.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

drilldo squirt posted:

Where is this button?

iPad app, probably also other apps. The twitter website doesn’t have it.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

A Buttery Pastry posted:

I feel like this is a tough argument to make as an American. By this logic, the US has carried out acts of war against NATO allies.

You're trying to elevate ad hominem and whataboutisms to a legit argument. As a German, I can call genocide what it is. As an American, I can criticize subverting another country's elections.

By your logic, people from any country that have ever done X lose the right to ever criticize X again forever. This is dumb.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Russia isn't threatening NATO.

It only wants it to disband or else.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Conspiratiorist posted:

In response we have people who, for example, believe Putin is loving Hitler 2.0 and can't be reasoned with repeatedly assert that nevertheless he wouldn't attack because he's a coward or because he's got nothing to gain or won't risk sanctions and it was always just a bluff to earn international respect after being cooped up in a bunker for too long.

This is only a contradiction if you think that all people who are not Putin are the same person and he's some kind of robot and everybody has to be absolutely logical or speak with the same voice all of the time. There's no contradiction between someone not responding to conventional reason in most situations but still backing off at some point.

Conspiratiorist posted:

Then we have the US publicly declaring they have absolute confidence through their security apparatus that Russia is aiming for a full-scale invasion, only to walk it back hours later, then flip flop again (nevermind Biden's "small incursion" gaffe), with international media alternating between ghoulishly sounding the war drums or pressing NATO governments for proof.

It's of course totally unacceptable to report that Russia is now ready to strike and that if it actually does, the campaign would probably take X amount of days (hours?). The press has to talk with the same voice (see above), otherwise it's completely worthless. Different opinions or assessments? Not possible, checkmate press! Also, preparing for an undesirable event totally means that you want that event, you monsters!

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

A Buttery Pastry posted:

The Holocaust is considerably further in the past than US election meddling, what with it being on-going. In any case, I was reacting mostly to calling meddling in an election* an act of war in a thread presently discussing the possibly imminent re-invasion of a country that was invaded less than a decade ago by the same country that apparently committed an act of war against the US. Calling election meddling an act of war completely deflates the term.

All I'm seeing is self-serving unsound reasoning to discredit people and discourage them from criticizing things that need to be criticized.

And it's absolutely an act of war, even if bloodless. Just like hacking infrastructure.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

What's a BEB?


Conspiratiorist posted:

An "act of war" nobody is willing to go to war over. Curious.

Read up on definitions of "War", even Wikipedia.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Of course a large part of the reason the EU doesn't trust the UK is all the characteristics it shares with Russia, so it's not much of a defense of Russia.

Sounds reasonable. I see a lot of parallels. The UK sends death squads to other countries that murder regime critics, invades their neighbors with their military and installs puppet regimes, fakes election results, the list goes on.

Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Josef bugman posted:

Errr, may I recommend to you the Troubles

Sure, somehow everything is the same. There's godwinning and bugmanning (the latter when everything is just as bad as Russia).

I do apologize if this is rude, thanks!

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Mr. Smile Face Hat
Sep 15, 2003

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy

Neurolimal posted:

I don't believe every Ukrainian militia is a neo-nazi front, but it is concerning that neo-nazi Ukrainian militias seem to show up in every puff piece.

Not necessarily an indictment of Ukraine, but certainly of the western journalists who seem to only have contacts w/ nazis, and are either too stupid to recognize their patches, or willingly obfuscating their relation.

I fail to see how this matters in any way outside of such publications being low quality.

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