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Roland Jones posted:I might just be optimistic, but I'm feeling like Hillary's going to get two terms. I mean, the Republicans might learn their lesson here, but you'd have thought they'd do that in 2012, and instead we got Trump. Their big positions like opposition to gay marriage, drugs, trans people's existence, and abortion are only going to get more unpopular in the meantime, too, particularly with fuckups like McCrory doing their thing and screwing over their states. If they don't ditch the albatross of social conservatism they shouldn't be able to recover any time soon, and with things like Mylan and insulin providers killing people for profit economic conservatism isn't doing too hot either. They need to reform or at least realign, and with the religious right and other social conservatives making up a sizable portion of their base that might not be possible. Also, four years of Hillary, coming after her saving the country from having to exist under Donald Trump, will hopefully show people that she's not that bad, at least compared to the alternative. I think Hillary will absolutely get two terms. The GOP's bench is completely decimated, all their candidates are toxic to the general public, and the electoral map just gets worse for them with every cycle. Hillary's approval numbers always rise once she gets elected to a new position and people realize that she isn't a super-corrupt monster and the world didn't end. Getting elected the first time is her biggest hurdle and it looks like she's clearing it.
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Oct 1, 2016 10:34
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Roland Jones posted:Oh, right, that too. Demographics are loving them harder and harder. I'd argue that it's already too late to do something. By painting themselves into a corner as the party for white supremacy, they've effectively allowed the Dems to define themselves as the party for "everyone else", including whites that don't think racism is cool. By making open racists like Trump the face of their party, they've lost an entire generation of voters, most of which view themselves as Dems by default due to racial identity. I think the GOP can regain voters again by dropping the racial angle and focusing on suckering people in with libertarian bullshit, but it would be a drastic, painful realignment that would temporarily result in Dem dominance.
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Oct 1, 2016 10:44
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/782294935886139392 https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/782295133223915520 https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/782295404012376064 It's hard to make any conclusions about the racial data without knowing the number of Hispanic whites, but it looks like Hillary's campaign is doing a good job driving up youth turnout in NC.
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Oct 1, 2016 20:12
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Spaced God posted:Don't worry you guys! Trump's charity does a lot of stuff! Like... Looks like he's got the Jill Stein vote locked up!
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Oct 1, 2016 20:48
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Chinese Gordon posted:Oh my god. I don't think he's going to come back from this week. Not because people will finally see the light and realize en masse that Trump is an idiot, but because there's two more debates coming up soon and Trump can't wait out the bad press anymore like he did in September.
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Oct 1, 2016 21:51
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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/782378018060705792 Tough week, huh?
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Oct 2, 2016 02:30
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Honestly I think that him losing a billion dollars in one year will hurt him more than twenty years of not paying taxes.
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Oct 2, 2016 03:34
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Winkie01 posted:No chance in hell, imagine you are a single mom being a waitress at pizza hut or some poo poo and you see this trust fund baby hasn't paid taxes in 20 years and while you have been busting your rear end trying to make ends meet and paying the IRS The biggest appeal of Donald Trump is the narrative of success he's built around himself. His supporters like him because he's a super "successful" rich guy who says what he wants when he wants, and they want to live vicariously through him. Everyone wishes they could skip twenty years of taxes. No one wants to be the fuckup who lost a billion dollars in one year to facilitate that.
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Oct 2, 2016 03:40
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Trabisnikof posted:63,000 vote margin with 40% turnout. Oof. And most of the "no" votes came from regions unaffected by FARC. gently caress referendums forever.
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Oct 3, 2016 01:07
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Reagan's son is endorsing Hillary, and it's not the one you'd think https://twitter.com/ReaganWorld/status/782815091506843648
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Oct 3, 2016 18:46
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New Q polls: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/783010909178519552 Clinton up +5 in Florida is good news, I have no idea what's up with Ohio though
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Oct 3, 2016 19:36
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Yeah, I'm pretty sure that Trump's numbers in Iowa are high for the same reasons. I'm kinda happy that NC is becoming a more relevant battleground state than OH/IA these days.
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Oct 3, 2016 19:42
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Did Alex Jones seriously quote a Ludacris song
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Oct 4, 2016 14:46
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It's looking like the media is declaring it a tie. I'd give Kaine the edge though because even though he sucked, Pence had more moments that could boil down into negative soundbites for Trump. Either way, I don't think it matters. This will stop Trump's downslide for a bit but they'll go down again after the second debate (or sooner, considering the NYT still has a bunch of stuff they're sitting on and Trump is a walking gaffe machine)
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Oct 5, 2016 03:45
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A little bit of perspective: https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/783516840148557824 For all the talk about Biden acing his 2012 debate, he didn't really do much better than Kaine did tonight in terms of public perception. But it doesn't really matter, the next real debate is in less than a week and against all odds Trump is turning what should be a minor win into another campaign loss
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Oct 5, 2016 05:52
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I just realized that I'm going to be on a plane while the second debate is happening 
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Oct 8, 2016 09:33
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The "even worse" tape they're hinting at is almost undoubtedly Trump saying the n-word. And not just saying the n-word, but a whole load of "macaca"-level ultra-racist poo poo along with it too. Trump has gotten to where he is because of barely-veiled racism, but no one likes explicit open racists in America. Trump gets caught saying the n-word on tape and his only surrogate left will be David Duke.Wikkheiser posted:I'm in Texas and voting Hillary. drat right I'm gonna be proud voting Hillary here in Texas 
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Oct 8, 2016 22:50
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RIP Mike Pence's political hopes & dreams
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Oct 9, 2016 07:02
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speng31b posted:Let me emphasize again - Mike Pence never had any hopes and dreams. He was a ruined politician, horribly disliked in his own state. He was never getting close the whitehouse except on someone else's coattails, and noone but Trump would ever take him as a running mate. The entire party was building up Pence to be the true conservative savior today, the good soldier who took one for the team and acted as the real Republican on the ticket. He could have ditched Trump and immediately be seen as the party's favorite for 2020. Instead he's staying on the sinking ship to die with its captain.
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Oct 9, 2016 07:12
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Ghetto Prince posted:They're absolutely stuck with him now, right? Like even if he got visited by three Dickensian ghosts tonight and dropped out of the race tomorrow (because I think that's the only way he would drop out), he'd still be on the ballot? It's too late. The ballots are already printed and due to early voting, people have already begun to vote for Trump.
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Oct 9, 2016 08:49
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I'm so loving mad I won't get to watch this debate live tonight.
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Oct 9, 2016 17:04
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lol, Trump skipping the third debate would be a total disaster. He can't possibly think this would improve his numbers, especially at a time where his campaign is on life support and the party is looking for a reason to pull the plug.
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Oct 10, 2016 07:06
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canepazzo posted:Florida's voter registration has been extended one more week to Oct 18. Hahaaa suck it Rick Scott.
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Oct 12, 2016 16:11
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:#NextFakeTrumlVictim has been trending number 1 for hours now. gently caress the alt right so much, they are all loving deplorable. The best part of election day will be watching /pol/ and r/the_donald have a panic attack when they realize bots and burner accounts can't vote
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Oct 13, 2016 12:45
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TheGreatGnocchi posted:I guess since we're doing the map predictions, this is mine. Hillary narrowly wins AZ and IN much like Obama did with NC and IN in 08'. Trump is in a downward spiral and I feel polls tend to underestimate the minority vote (this isn't scientific, it's just my rationale for such a crazy map). A lot of polls this year are assuming the minority vote will be around 2012 levels or earlier, but I wouldn't be surprised if that number was higher due to demographic trends and Trump's unique brand of awfulness getting people to register and vote. Also none of these polls are taking GOTV into account. The extremely lopsided number of voting registrations and early ballots requested is already proof of how wide the GOTV gap is between campaigns, and I think that gap will add a few points to Hillary's margins across the board.
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Oct 16, 2016 06:48
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Beyond all the talk of his positions and background, I think Bernie would have lost the general election because his campaign was managed by Jeff loving Weaver
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Oct 20, 2016 07:37
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woke wedding drone posted:That's called "the look of power" Hillary always dresses like a Starfleet Commander and I love it so much.
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Oct 20, 2016 07:40
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Night10194 posted:Just how important was the guy that just left? He was the guy in charge of Trump's GOTV operation 
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Oct 21, 2016 06:21
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hexenmexen posted:A lot of the reason that wikileaks gets so much attention from the Maga-ites is Hillary's failure to come off as an honest candidate. Hillary's "failure" to come off as an honest candidate is mostly just people are desperately looking for a scandal to tie her to and will take any scraps they can get to prove how "corrupt" she is. The truth is that society is conditioned to inherently distrust ambitious women and that Hillary gets much higher scrutiny than any of her male counterparts because of it.
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Oct 24, 2016 07:28
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Trip report from Austin, TX: huge line that took an hour to get through, first time at this location but a regular said that it was a lot busier than usual. Chalk up another vote for Hillary in Texas.
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Oct 24, 2016 23:44
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Teriyaki Koinku posted:By the way, Xenia is loving baller for anyone into skydiving. Tons and tons of skydiving country there. I got to do it in-tandem my junior year of high school because my dad was a long-time skydiving enthusiast for decades and knew the owners of the skydiving ranch really well so they'd do him a favor and let me jump even though I was 17 and underage. Isn't that the hosed up town from Gummo?
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Oct 26, 2016 07:08
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Hillary won't win Texas but a 3-point margin is a good result that would keep Republicans up at night. Potentially this election cycle may have energized Texas Dems to make the state turn blue a cycle earlier.
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Oct 27, 2016 06:24
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I don't really expect this new emails thing to have much traction by election day. There will be a temporary dip but it's already been a day and it sounds like the narrative is going from "what could Clinton be hiding in these super-hidden emails?" to "should Comey resign for trying to influence the election with this nothingburger of a story?"
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Oct 29, 2016 19:06
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Can we just start the new thread a day early, god drat
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Oct 31, 2016 07:29
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Admiral Ray posted:Los Ruggles, lemme tell ya, his recent posts don't come across as hateful to me. Mocking, derisive, and annoyed, sure, but not hateful. This is why I'm not so mad about the alt-right becoming more prominent in mainstream politics. They're awful, but their awfulness is so open and indefensible that there's no way for people to hide the racism behind plausible deniability anymore. That's way less harmful than Reagan-style dogwhistle racism.
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Oct 31, 2016 07:39
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ImpAtom posted:Eh. I genuinely worry that it will make people blind to dogwhistle racism becasue "it isn't obvious!" I mean that happens already but we'll see. Too many people go "I can't be racist, I'm not a Klansman!" That's already been happening for decades though, ever since the Southern Strategy. It's pretty clear that institutional white supremacy will never die until the US is majority-minority, so I'm perfectly fine with the racism being out and obvious until we inevitably reach that point.
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Oct 31, 2016 07:44
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gfsincere posted:No, this is actually even worse because now you're giving racism back legitimacy by giving them actual mainstream platforms so they no longer have to keep their KKK robes in the closet. Racism has a legitimate mainstream platform, it's called the Republican Party. Most whites are cool with racist policies but not cool with overtly racist iconography, or being associated with capital R racists (hence why Donald Trump is running for president but David Duke is still persona non grata). Taking advantage of that split might eventually make some closet racists more comfortable with taking the KKK robes out of the closet, but by the time that happens demographic changes will have taken their toll and it will be too late for them.
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Oct 31, 2016 08:03
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meristem posted:Of course, no doubt on that. Bernie had an opportunity to establish a network after the DNC, but he squandered it when he hired Jeff Weaver to lead his movement and the rest of his team abruptly jumped ship. Sanders' insistence on keeping Jeff Weaver around makes me doubtful that he could have beaten Trump. Weaver couldn't manage his way out of a paper bag and there's no way Sanders' general campaign would have been as tight and efficiently organized at Clinton's. Also for all the talk about how unpopular Hillary is, she's actually extremely popular with non-whites and does a good job at getting those core demographics energized. Sanders lost the primary because his minority outreach was abysmal and it would have remained abysmal during the general. His main strategy would have been to win the general election by getting the white working class to vote D, which is an extremely bad idea against a white populist candidate like Trump.
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Oct 31, 2016 09:30
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So, what are the odds of Comey resigning before inauguration day?
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Oct 31, 2016 21:02
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Deified Data posted:Agreed. I don't have too many Trumpkins on FB right now but I'm keeping what little there are for the post-election 'fruede. If CSPAM doesn't have a post-election /pol/ schadenfreude thread I'm going to be very disappointed
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Oct 31, 2016 22:55
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