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Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Nah, I think its mostly been like that, I think now people care about outside shooting more so it's more glaring.

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Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Metapod posted:

I look forward to watching blossomgame play in a Thunder uniform

Or go to San Antonio, learn a 3pt shot, and becoming Draymond 2.0

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
I've posted this before, but it's not like the quality of life of a college star athlete is all that bad. In fact, I am willing to bet for most athletes the college years are more fun than the first couple years in the league. If a guy feels like he wants to extend that experience a bit longer, or he isn't ready for "the real world" (as most 19 year olds aren't) I can't really blame anyone.

The other side is we don't give agents enough credit for what they do. An agent could absolutely have a perspective that might help someone, (maybe it's better to lose a year & a bit of money but the next draft year is more advantageous to that type of player).

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

straight up brolic posted:

Lonzo Ball will be a good litmus test for hosed up jumper theory, insane dad theory (cross sport), the look (doesn't have it), the name tool (has it)

That's a lot of factors to isolate, but thankfully there are several Ball brothers for sample size. Do we have a control Ball brother who we can isolate?

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

MourningView posted:

They tend to correlate really well outside of very rare cases like Bruce Bowen. Low FT% but high 3 pt% is a pretty good sign that someone's 3 pt% might be a sample size fluke that won't carry over (good recent example is Justise Winslow). I think college FT% actually has a higher corellation with NBA 3 pt% just because the sample is higher.

I hope you appreciate how much more of a nerd you sound like these days.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Paul Zuvella posted:

He can still hit shots if he is not guarded. That's the reason why people like Rubio and MCW are bad. Ball will hit shots you leave him open for.

Rubio hits open shots too. Rubio is bad at finishing at the rim if there is a hint of defense. If Ball can finish then he's already ahead of guys like MCW and Rubio at that.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Dejan Bimble posted:


Illegal gifts just can't be that meaningful for the top recruits, because they're on the cusp of millions.


Not so sure I agree with this. A year+ from when a guy starts getting promises from scouts to when he'd get his first NBA paycheck is a long time. By this point those guys are also starting to get pressure from family and friends about providing. It's hard to pass up cash or even just favorable treatment when you have your uncle who raised you talking about how tough it is to make ends meet.

I'd also imagine most of these guys are being (correctly) coached not to assume a top pick or even a pick in the NBA draft. There are plenty of guys who were top recruits who flamed out in college and dropped position/out of the first round.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

The Glumslinger posted:

I still can't believe the Cavs took Anthony Bennet #1. I mean, its not like the expected #1 Oladipo has turned into a superstar, but man, they were like the only people on earth who saw something in Bennett

If you subscribe to tiers, Bennett was in the same tier as the rest of the top guys, the problem was that tier was like the 3rd tier in a normal draft, there were 0 top-flight prospects. I think most people liked Noel, Porter and Oladipo generally better, but it really wasn't a shocking pick, just an unusual one.

I mean, a big strong low-block guy who can stretch his shot out to the 3 point line sure as hell seems like a valuable guy, even if he has some red flags. There ended up being some nice value later on in that draft, but that was an awful draft at the top, for sure. There was sorta no good #1 pick.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Paul Zuvella posted:

Lmao why would you even want to play for the lakers at this point.

He meant "Play Against the Lakers". That's a pretty solid route to putting up huge numbers.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

pubic works project posted:

Lmao the Ball dad is a gigantic moron.

Well, it's a fake tweet so

Rick posted:

I think a lot of the people making the argument are just looking at the fact that Russell doesn't get a lot of assists and deciding he is not a point guard. But like the Lakers are like 13 PPM better with him on the floor so he is clearly doing something to facilitate.

I think it is worth trying to make it work for like Fultz but I have the same worries as you do for Ball.


Yeah why would you want to play for the team that world wide is still the most popular team in the league by a giant margin.

Russell sorta reminds of me a little of Deron Williams in his Utah days, I think he'll be the "does a little of everything" and the type of guy who you want to have the ball in his hands. I don't think he gets to the rim as well as DWill did, and that will be a big part of how his game develops I think.

I mean, if Ball is staring you in the face with your pick I think you try to figure it out.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Ty1990 posted:

Somebody earlier brought up Josh Jackson's shooting being a red flag because his fair 37% from 3 doesnt match up with his bad 55% from the line...but isn't it a huge positive that he's gotten so much better from deep as the season has gone on?

He's taken twice as many FTs as 3s so far, and having such a low Free Throw % would suggest his 3pt mark is more a case of sample size than real range. His 3pt shooting is basically only 10 or 12 games where he has been hitting a great clip, it's really hard to tell if that's him getting better or just getting lucky.

Even bad NBA players have 10 game stretches where they hit everything they toss up. The fact that Jackson has only 30 total college games it's really fair to call that a red flag.

Maybe it's nothing, but it should be considered.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

EvanTH posted:

I'm sayin' that scouting was largely correct, to this day, despite his years of insanity training and recovery with breathing tubes suspended inside a plexiglass tube filled with a mysterious green fluid he's still a below average shooter and it only doesn't matter because of God-like ability at everything else

This sport might be unwatchable if LeBron was a good shooter

If he was a good shooter he probably wouldn't have become god-like at everything else.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Cool Buff Man posted:

IT's the one getting traded. Book it.

I think its real likely Boston has a disappointing playoff run because other teams exploit IT. Usually PG defense is the easiest to hide, but I can't remember another player on a playoff team that is so far behind the curve. Maybe Amare, but he'd at least give a few games worth of effort in the playoffs.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

EvanTH posted:

I think they have a disappointing playoff run because of LeBron James, but I don't think IT's defense is going to be much more of a problem than during the regular season. It's so, so, so bad but I always say his defense is slightly less than half as bad as his offense is amazing and he's used to angry dudes trying to body him.

If I were a betting man I'd say IT's playoffs are gonna look way more like J.J. Barea 2011 than Steph Curry 2016. But I'm not because gambling is a sin that rots the soul from its core and also I don't have enough money to gamble.

If they lost to Toronto or Washington before the ECF, that'd be disappointing. If they get swept by Cleveland, that would be disappointing. If they lose to Cleveland but put up a good fight then that shouldn't be considered disappointing.

I think in the playoffs IT will see more schemes designed to switch him on the ball-handler than the regular season. I think he'll also not get as much benefit of the whistle when he gets knocked around. I expect it will be a difference for him, but I'm willing to be shown I'm wrong.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

AggressivelyStupid posted:

Kevin Love has had a nose job. Look at rookie love vs now. The man looked extremely goony coming into the league

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

NickRoweFillea posted:

Had to tell one of my students that Lonzo Ball wasn't going to be the first overall pick

Is LaVar Ball doing all his homework?

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Rick posted:

https://theringer.com/lonzo-ball-ucla-shooting-mechanics-6eeda2ef3e41#.iqyqppq8y

A good article about Ball and ball.

I'd never really considered that using a different brand of basketball could affect shooting with NBA players, but it's certainly something I've experienced. The article points out that actual great shooters but does make a difference with others.

For what it's worth, the 44 attempts without a Wilson ball is really small. If 3 of those misses became makes, he'd be better with a non-Wilson than his current average. I suspect the split has a lot more to do with defense and playing on the road in general than the ball, but it still is an interesting data point.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

MourningView posted:

As I said earlier, your feeling on the UNC Jackson is going to depend on whether or not you buy him suddenly shooting 10% better from 3 being sustainable. The biggest reason he fell in the first place was that he never developed as a shooter the way people hoped he would out of high school. He is now but generally it's right to be suspicious of sudden dramatic improvement late in your college career when you're older than most of the people you're playing against

WesJohnson.txt

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Young Iggy was absolutely able to get up. He was strong too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltE0I1VpGKU (start 39 seconds in, stupid SA won't let me start at a time period.

His game has adjusted as he's gotten older, but he was well above average athletically.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

IcePhoenix posted:

I would not mind Lauri Markkanen on my team

He seems like a good fit, but I think people keep projecting him to MN because he looks like a guy from Minnesota.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

IcePhoenix posted:

I'm not entirely sure. Our most glaring need is a starting 4, and he seems to perfectly fit that.

I'd rather get a SF who can shoot and defend, but yeah he's a good fit. I think that's just a coincidence though. Blonde curly haired white guys go to Minnesota, it is known.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

euphronius posted:

Brett brown has been saying again that Simmons is playing point guard next year. No qualifiers or point forward stuff.

Seems strange with one the best point guard drafts ever.

Eh, most of the guys would fit alongside Simmons as a backcourt, who plays the other guard isn't a big deal. Can Simmons guard opposing PG or SGs? That is a bigger question. If he can't (and I expect he cannot) then you need 2 Guards on defense, and then whether he's playing Point Forward or not is irrelevant.

Basically, it lets them say "We're going to run our offense through our #1 Pick" and then how it washes out will not really matter. I wouldn't read too much into it.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

euphronius posted:

I think if brown meant point forward he'd say that. Or if he meant Simmons would guard forwards. He's said Simmons will guard 1 s though. (He said "Simmons will guard whoever guards him. If that is a 1 then he will guard 1s).

It confuses me and may be a big issue or maybe not because colangelo doesn't agree !! Idk.

I think it's really easy to just say this right now before the dude has played any NBA minutes. Next year will probably be another growing pains year for Philly anyway, so they can try it if they want. I think ultimately they end up with two smaller guys in the lineup to guard the opposing backcourt, but maybe one is called a "SF" but always defends a guard. Lots of teams do stuff like that.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

euphronius posted:

I'd take fultz and lakers unprotected next year as best case.

I think you are right.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Paul Zuvella posted:

Now that I'm think of it Fultz + lakers next year pick is actually probably the best case. Not because of who they can draft, but if Fultz + Simmons + Embiid works out the lakers pick is incredibly tradable next year.

Also, you have no idea how the '18 draft will shake out. There have been shallow drafts that ended up deep, and deep ones that ended up shallow. I could see a Wing player coming out of nowhere to the top of the draft too, you never know.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Ty1990 posted:

Yes. That's the wet dream, but If they end up with a guard and wing prospect in the first 7 picks (let's say Monk and Isaac) I'd be ecstatic.

I get the LAL pick next year unprotected looks great, but give me that poo poo this year. This draft has 8 or 9 *really* good prospects that also happen to fit the Sixers' needs.

That does mean trying to develop 3 top-level draft prospects next year, which is probably more than they can effectively do. They may be looking at trades if they end up with two picks.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
How could you have multiple teams with 55% or more chance to go first?

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Ghetto SuperCzar posted:

Name another good American born white PF/C besides Kevin Love.

Cody Zeller was Not Bad.
Robin and Brook Lopez are also Ok.
Ryan Anderson is decent.
Hayward could probably play some small-ball 4.

Race is a social construct.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Kibner posted:

Lopez bros only have a white mother.

Ah yes, SAS's no exception single-drop rule.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Wingspan is a social construct.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Metapod posted:

speaking of okc i hope they draft a backup pg that i can nod approvingly when he gets playing time

As a fan of a team with Tyus Jones I nod approvingly at this post.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

morestuff posted:

I like the Marvin Williams comp for Isaac, but it's kind of uninspiring for a top-10 guy. I guess you'd be paying for upside in case he gets much better off the dribble

"Longer Harrison Barnes" is a better "I hope" I think, though Marvin Williams would still be a pretty good pickup with a #6. Isaac is becoming my Timberwolves hopeful, as I think he could add much needed defense at the 3 and play some 4 alongside KAT or Dieng.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Rick posted:

Well considering how bad a fit he is for LA you probably only have to worry about him for a couple years.

I dunno, I don't watch any NCAA so my opinions are super lovely but I don't see why Ball and Russell can't co-exist in the backcourt. It'd give them great shooting and ball handling, you wouldn't get any size mismatch from switching, and I don't think they'd get in each others way.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

The Glumslinger posted:

I'm half convinced the Lakers are gonna end up with the #4 pick as karma for firing Jim Black

Real Karma would be #1 and Magic taking Ball

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

kiimo posted:

So you guys do know that Lonzo Ball is really really good, right? I mean I hate his family and he didn't play awesome against Kentucky but he schooled suckas all season long. I watched a lot of UCLA and he's going to win a lot of games for whatever team drafts him. I just hope it isn't the Lakers.

This is very true, and I think the jokes come from either A) Picking Ball over Fultz which I don't think makes sense and B) The fact that if he goes to the Lakers it'll be hilarious. Ball's value comes completely down to if his shot will work in the NBA.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

IcePhoenix posted:

This is not something you want to be saying about a guy you might be taking in the top three

He is saying Ball's floor isn't bad, and every player has bad worst-case scenarios. If Ball's shot does work then you have Steph Curry future HOF Buddy Hield v2.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

EvanTH posted:

This thread was one of the first to acknowledge Jaylen Brown: useful rookie, despite its own internal rookies are bad law that might seem to abnegate the concept

Coming back to this, but the "Rookies are Bad" is somewhat assuming you are going to play the rookie in a big role. Jaylen Brown was the 8th guy on the team, and was slotted as a low-usage, hustle and cutter kind of guy. I think you can get usefulness from a rookie there, but it's not like he moved the needle much. Spread his minutes around to Green, etc and I don't think you change the win total at all.

Given what was on the board when they picked 3rd, Jaylen Brown is not as hilarious of a pick as it first seemed, but right now he's probably right around replacement level. If Boston needed to replace him with a vet-minimum guy they probably could.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Bush Did Outer Heaven posted:

From here on out I'm assuming Fox is the new Jonny Flynn.

Jonny Flynn was ok until he had hip surgery that he never really came back from. You lose power there you are done as an athlete.

I don't think Jonny would have been an all-star, but he could get to the rim and shoot so he would have had value.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
Lonzo and Buddy seems like a lot of early-clock shots.

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Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

Artic Puma posted:

E: ^^ I hate public proposals but that rules.

Are we live posting the draft lottery in here or in the playoffs GDT?

GDT or make a thread

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