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QuoProQuid posted:anyone know anything about the ballot initiative in maine or the special in Washington? All 2 people I know who live in Dhingra's district have been double checked to make sure they voted (they did) Washington always has slow-rear end results because it's 100% mail-in voting and the ballot only has to be postmarked by election day, not received by election day
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Nov 8, 2017 01:11
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:If Gillipsie loses, how the hell is Breitbart,The Donald, Donald Trump going to spin it? voter fraud, they need to suppress more votes to make sure all those illegal democratic votes aren't cast
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Nov 8, 2017 01:41
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Now I just need final confirmation that I'll have a state senate that doesn't suck rear end and I will be very happy
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Nov 8, 2017 01:50
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I'm assuming a big special election year for democrats will make at least a few republicans in the senate scramble to distance themselves from trump any way they can, so drive that margin sky high
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Nov 8, 2017 01:53
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:The GOP is going to panic over this. Their strategy to go full racist may have completely backfired. But the thing is they have no other strategy. Racism is all they have and the electorate is getting less racist every year, They'll rebuild with a different coalition, but it could potentially take a while yeah there was only one democratic president between Ford and Reagan
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Nov 8, 2017 01:55
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Is this the kind of rout that makes 2018 senate matter or do you need like D+20 for that
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Nov 8, 2017 02:08
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Senate is near unattainable just due to who is up for reelection and where. It has nothing to do with turnout. A wave strong enough to beat Cruz puts the Senate in play but I'm assuming that's way bigger than the wave we're seeing here
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Nov 8, 2017 02:10
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sharkbomb posted:I'm envious of all of you-- all I got to vote for today in PA was some city positions and judges... and something about property taxes. I got to choose between two left-leaning mayors and vote for port commissioner or some poo poo My parents got to decide the fate of the state legislature so that's cool
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Nov 8, 2017 02:19
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ozmunkeh posted:https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/election-8829/map/ Four votes whoa
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Nov 8, 2017 02:33
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Paracaidas posted:Early returns have the Medicaid expansion outrunning Hillary in Maine. Outside of the mindboggling insanity of My memory is hazy but I think intermediate vote counts do get reported in WA but it isn't by precinct or anything. Anything but a D blowout seems unlikely so we'll probably know tonight
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Nov 8, 2017 02:36
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Paracaidas posted:I'd be surprised if we get a call, but then, tonight's been all about surprising me. The WA secretary of state won't officially call the election for a few more days but Dhingra won the primary by 11 points and was polling well so the chance early results aren't conclusive is low (though obviously not zero) I could be misremembering when early results come in though and it might be tomorrow or later but I think it's tonight
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Nov 8, 2017 02:44
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farraday posted:Well before absentees. Local races are tiny and can have tiny margins. But obviously one vote never matters. The sentiment is still true though. I'm sure there's closer examples in places I don't live but in 2004 the WA governor's race was determined by less than 200 votes
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Nov 8, 2017 03:04
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The fox news take seems to be that the Rs didn't embrace trump hard enough
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Nov 8, 2017 03:37
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Endorph posted:yeah, that one too. i wonder if part of it really is the rain making old ladies not wanna get out of their cars. even if it maybe helped us here, in-person voting is the loving worst
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Nov 8, 2017 04:35
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Admiral posted:You Americans need to learn the way of the Democracy Sausage. I live in a state with 100% mail-in voting It rules
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Nov 8, 2017 04:47
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I think the WA election should start having results posted in ten minutes. Here's the official page for the important one: http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/LegislativeDistrict45.html
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Nov 8, 2017 04:54
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axeil posted:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/928110681169252352 VPAP's indicator thing assumes uncalled races go to the incumbent's party
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Nov 8, 2017 05:07
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The very first results in WA-45 has Manka Dhingra up by 11 points nice e: and I think because of mail-in voting early counts are closer to a truly random sample than they are in most states
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Nov 8, 2017 05:09
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axeil posted:https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/928112323260231680 Yeah I double checked and the number of votes reported is somewhere around 20% of the population of the district. Dunno what turnout looks like but this is a significant percentage of all votes with a +11 lead, Dhingra's won
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Nov 8, 2017 05:17
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Endorph posted:cricket fields? Cricket is really popular in India Maybe there was also a cricket field built in the area recently?
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Nov 8, 2017 05:34
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Non-ranked voting systems suck Instant runoff and STV everywhere please
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Nov 8, 2017 20:20
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I've read enough 538 to not trust a single poll result but that's super promising. If democrats get a pickup in an unwinnable state like Alabama, the path to 51 in 2018 doesn't require going after any impossible races, just difficult ones
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Nov 10, 2017 19:58
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Quorum posted:So I'm back at my computer and I've got actual thoughts on this now. 1) First, again, still a prediction based on how recounts turn out, so adjust your expectations accordingly. 2) Second, while fly-by-night procedural tricks are definitely a possibility with the House of Delegates locked in deadlock, the Republicans actually have less incentive to do this than Democrats do, because any bill that passes the House still has to pass the Senate, which remains in 31-29 Republican control, and then be signed by a Governor Northam who is surely not interested in signing bullshit. The Senate has also proven more willing to deal with Democrats on certain matters, like redistricting reform. 3) Third, the last time this happened, the Democrats got the Speakership because one of the Republican delegates was late being seated; if that happens again, whichever party has the advantage is going to get the Speakership, and I don't expect as much collegiality in the chamber as there was in 1997. If both parties are at parity when the session is seated in January, I honestly don't know what will happen, as it'll depend on their power sharing negotiations, which I don't doubt are already going on behind the scenes in the event it officially turns out in a tie. We might see a consensus, outside Speaker, or the Governor might bribe one of the weakest Delegates and/or Senators in the Republican caucus with a plum position to sway the balance of power (that's happened before). I don't know, and neither does anybody else! Whee! It's likely to be interesting enough that there might be call for a thread to keep discussing Virginia stuff (and maybe DC/Maryland also) after the elections of this year are over and done, honestly. Republicans first gained control of the WA state senate by offering certain moderate/right-leaning democrats top positions if they caucused with the Republicans instead. Power-sharing agreements can do weird-rear end poo poo.
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Nov 14, 2017 01:30
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I think there's usually one or two polls that are off by ten or more points but even if this is the extreme outlier that means the race is tied. In Alabama. And, statistically speaking, any individual poll is unlikely to be the outlier so this is insane.
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Nov 15, 2017 21:30
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Is that the kind of thing that smacks of electoral fraud or does that happen all the time by accident and we never notice in races that aren't super close?
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Nov 16, 2017 00:28
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Communist Zombie posted:And for two? Cause them having no recourse seems like utter bullshit. If the person who gave them the wrong ballot got charged with voter fraud would be atleast something. This is why a court, instead of random people in an internet comedy forum, will be the ones to figure it out
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Nov 16, 2017 23:16
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I dunno that I have a solution to the problem but the fact that out justice system literally pays people to do everything they can to get a guilty verdict is pretty hosed up
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Dec 12, 2017 20:38
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axeil posted:Please describe a justice system that doesn't have prosecutors and yet somehow still remains impartial/fair. When asked upthread what they meant by "reform" their answer was "fire the racist fuckheads and hire non-lovely people" which is a pretty good if hard to execute plan imo
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Dec 12, 2017 21:02
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My understanding which comes entirely from 538 is that Jones wins if the demographics of the turnout are much more demographic-leaning than past elections, because basically all the polls had to make up for lovely samples with heavy demographic weighting So to the extent exit polls mean anything this is great
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Dec 12, 2017 23:58
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QuoProQuid posted:let me be the first to say that i think its all going to come down to turnout You'd be safe to say that about nearly every election
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Dec 13, 2017 00:00
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axeil posted:https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/940772313972256768 That graph has terrible axis labels
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Dec 13, 2017 03:38
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axeil posted:that's how the graphs actually look when you do things in SAS/R/Python/etc. I make R graphs a ton for work and I wouldn't push that to twitter without putting in real labels
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Dec 13, 2017 03:40
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The Muppets On PCP posted:by default but it's like one line to relabel them Less than a line in R, the x label and y label are arguments in the plot() function call
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Dec 13, 2017 03:43
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If trump gives us a democratic senator in loving Alabama does that mean accelerationists were right
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Dec 13, 2017 04:23
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The punishment for a crime loophole in the 13th amendment is super hosed up on multiple axes
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Dec 13, 2017 07:03
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Josef bugman posted:Jesus, what is it with Democrats and just being stupid about getting themselves elected. Obama For America I believe e: guess I'm wrong cheetah7071 fucked around with this message at 20:08 on Dec 13, 2017 |
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Dec 13, 2017 20:06
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What exactly does the national party do? My understanding is they functioned sorta like a super PAC in that they had money donated for the cause but for not any specific campaign, and strategically spent it on the races where they thought it would matter most.
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Dec 13, 2017 20:37
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so the takeaway isn't "white people are terrible" but "evangelicals are terrible, and also overwhelmingly white"?
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Dec 13, 2017 22:33
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Incentivizing good health is a cool idea but the punishment for not doing what you can to be healthy shouldn't be telling you to go die by refusing your health care
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Dec 17, 2017 21:03
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Can the Republicans not just refuse those posts? Or are they technically "promotions" so each individual person would benefit from taking the post?
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Dec 19, 2017 00:07
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