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Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Poque posted:

I have donated my $0 for April. :toxx:

I forgot how relatively rare scored OF errors are


Hard to be given an error when you don't get within 10 feet of the ball.

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Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Inspector_666 posted:

Headley is already falling off, but maybe Castro doesn't crash back to earth. He has 3 seasons right near .300/.340/.430 with wRC+ of 100 or better.

Castro's BABIP is .386. He's definitely going to regress some.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Poque posted:

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

my next goal is to go to a game where the Cubs don't allow a first inning run but that could take years

Cubs play the Mets on the 12th of June.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006
I've only been to 3-4 games due to being a filthy foreigner, but one of the ones I've been to featured this.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

patonthebach posted:

I know I am late to this point but I agree with Machado 100% as a position player but also incredibly annoyed at hearing it from an Oriole as they have headhunted blue jays for the past few years throwing at our hitters all the time for having the audacity to be proud dominicans.

Yeah I'm sure a team whose best player is Machado is deliberately throwing at players for being Dominican.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

I'm not denying that the O's and Bautista don't get along but to claim it's just because he's Dominican is asinine when a) the Orioles' best player is of Dominican heritage and b) Encarnacion is also Dominican and he doesn't have anything near the heat with the O's that Bautista does.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Good Dog posted:

Just 3 starting pitchers on the DL? Thats it?

I'll see that and raise you a left fielder, a catcher, and both halves of a first base platoon.

e: Wright's been injured for so long I forgot he was even on the team.

Julio Cruz fucked around with this message at 23:33 on May 5, 2017

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

canadianclassic posted:

Every goon's favorite pitcher will be getting his first MLB start!

http://www.tsn.ca/biagini-to-start-for-jays-on-sunday-1.744019

Don't know what the bullpen's going to do but I'm stoked for Biagini

...who? I thought every goon's favorite pitcher was Pat Venditte.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

The Berzerker posted:

he might be out til August, yikes

I think 8 weeks was about what people were expecting so this isn't a huge surprise. Still sucks though.

e: and considering the Mets medical staff takes a mountain of poo poo (mostly deserved) for rushing players back they're right to go slow with the club's ace.

Julio Cruz fucked around with this message at 21:31 on May 6, 2017

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Salvor_Hardin posted:

Not necessarily disagreeing but why? It was 96mph high, possibly out of the zone. Hardly a meatball.

In a situation where a giving up a home run loses you the game the last thing you want to do is throw a high fastball down the middle, particularly on a 1-2 pitch.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Pancakes posted:

I honestly can't think of another team that handles internal problems and the media worse than the Mets. Maybe the White Sox in the Drake Saga, but that's about it in recent memory.

I know everyone loves to push the "lolMets" button but I'm not sure what else they were meant to have done in this situation. Dealing with whatever happened behind closed doors is far better than spreading it all across the media.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Timby posted:

It obviously isn't completely behind closed doors if Lo Duca, who's a horse racing analyst nowadays, knows what happened.

You can't exactly blame that on the front office, though. If they wanted it leaked they'd have gone to one of the beat guys, not to a former player.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Timby posted:

https://twitter.com/WayneRandazzo/status/861258822937182208

I wonder if Harvey went out clubbing after curfew or something.

The rumor I've seen is that he got wasted after the Rangers game on Friday night and turned up still drunk/hungover yesterday.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

kalensc posted:

This makes me more sympathetic towards Harvey battling alcohol-related (or other problems, with alcohol being a temporary relief) issues.

Seeking help or admitting flaws is hard on anyone at anytime, let alone a "celebrity" ensconced in a culture where it's considered virtuous (by some) to prioritize a regular day of work over a death in the family.

If it is an alcohol problem I can't really blame him for keeping it hidden. The Post has always had its knives out for him, they'd love a chance to put "the Dark Knight Boozes" (or something equally unimaginative) across the back page.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

iospace posted:

How dare anyone show a personality.

Or try to have fun.

Or gods forbid, date someone.

Hmm yes staying out drinking so late that you're unable to turn up to your job sure is "showing a personality" and "having fun".

Don't get me wrong, I'm not completely blaming Harvey - since this has been rumored to have happened a few times now it's quite possible that he has a problem and this may well be the push he needs to get help for it - but to paint the Mets as suspending him just because they're killjoys is ridiculous.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Grittybeard posted:

That seems like a response to the previous post and nothing else.

If I were a Mets fan I'd probably hate Harvey for insisting he pitch the 9th inning of game 5 in the 2015 world series. Sure I'd hate Collins more for letting it happen, but I'd probably hate Harvey too.

At the end of the 8th he'd given up 1 walk, 4 hits, and struck out 9 on 102 pitches, and was coming off a 1-2-3 9-pitch 8th. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but it was far from a clear-cut decision to pull him.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Tom Gorman posted:

If you have a hangover, that's what the cocaine is for. Someone get Kevin Mitchell on the Mets medical staff.

Keith's still in the booth, all you have to do is send someone up during an ad break.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006
Using Reed and Familia in a 6-1 game was a stupid thing to do by TC. The rest of our bullpen might be bad, but it can hold a 5-run lead for 2 innings.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

bawfuls posted:

Hey, at least Puig's dumb off-field decisions haven't cost him months and months of playing time and threatened to permanently reduce his effectiveness as a baseball player.

if we work together, I think we can collectively reach Cubsposting

This season has been mostly sad Jaysposting with a side order of near-suicidal Metsposting and a garnish of perplexed Twinsposting.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Infidel Castro posted:

Isn't Metsposting near-suicidal by default?

Sometimes it gets as far as "optimistic despite all evidence to the contrary".

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Abel Wingnut posted:

offensively, schwarber is doing fine and is suffering some really bad luck. his walk rate is up, his babip is barely above 200, his swinging strike rate is almost half of what it was in 2015 yet his k-rate barely moved, he's swinging at outside pitches less. dude's going to go on a tear with these kinds of numbers.

defensively, what did you expect?

He's swinging at slightly fewer pitches outside the zone, but the ones he is swinging at he's making contact with at a much higher rate. His LD% is down and his ISO is way down. He's making much worse contact than in 2015, and while he has been getting unlucky with a BABIP of .229, his normal BABIP is going to be below .300 because he's not fast enough to reach on infield hits.

Defensively he was always a huge liability but a lot of people waved that away because he was hitting monster dingers. Now he's struggling offensively it's a lot harder to ignore his terrible defense.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Popete posted:

What? Is this your first time here?

Like %99 of the posts on this forum are people bitching about the Cubs.

Bitching about the Cubs playing badly and losing, sure, but suggesting their players (apart from Arrieta) might not actually be that good still causes arguments. Exhibit 1 is Javy Baez.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Armitage posted:

the mets should make changes after today but sadly they are always content to stand pat until it's too late.

The bullpen is struggling, but they're having to pick up a hell of a lot of innings because the starters are either hurt or ineffective or both. I don't think Matz is meant to be far off so that'll take some of the weight. We definitely shouldn't say no to a bullpen arm or two as well, though. I doubt we could get Melancon but we might be able to get Minor or Soria from the Royals.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

YeahTubaMike posted:

They have run poor Asdrúbal Cabrera right into the loving ground, and now he's broken. What an utterly expected turn of events. I hate (myself for loving) the Mets.

He had 3 pinch-hit appearances in 5 days since initially injuring his thumb last weekend, that's hardly running him into the ground. Having said that, whoever cleared him to start yesterday and today has some explaining to do.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

FlamingLiberal posted:

Are they going to free Amed now?

I expect they'll play Reyes at short and put TJ at third, I don't expect Amed up before September. If Cabrera does go on the DL I expect a pitcher up, most likely Josh Smoker.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006
Jeter's a HoFer, but I think it's fair to say he wouldn't be a first-ballot near-unanimous guy if he wasn't a Yankee. His case is based on longevity and counting stats rather than peak performance and the Yankees kept him at/near the top of the lineup for 5 seasons after he'd become a below-average player.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Paul Zuvella posted:

Derek Jeter was a "below average" hitter for literally 3 seasons. His first, his last, and 2010.

In 2012 he had an OBP of .368 and was the third highest on the team. He was 38.

I didn't say "below average hitter", I said "below average player".

Derek Jeter's WAA:

2010: -0.7
2011: -0.9
2012: -0.3
2013: -0.9
2014: -1.9

Any more questions?

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Poque posted:

yeah, that shortstop sure was garbage for his 36-40 age seasons

That's exactly my point. Other teams would have cut/benched/at the very least moved down the order a SS that age with that little production, but the Yankees didn't because they wanted him to get 3000 hits to boost his HoF credentials.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Paul Zuvella posted:

You specifically mentioned batting "him at/near the top of the lineup" which super seems to imply that you were talking about hitting but yea, He was pretty bad at fielding in those later years.

How many other 94 OPS+ players are locked into a top 2 batting spot for 5 seasons?

Paul Zuvella posted:

What on earth does his defense have to do with him batting at the top of the order? He was legit the Yankees best option as a #2 dude, at least until Jacoby got there.

Yankees with a higher OPS+ than Jeter, 2010-2014:

2010 Mark Teixeira, 124
2010 Robinson Cano, 141
2010 Alex Rodriguez, 123
2010 Brett Gardner, 105
2010 Curtis Granderson, 108
2010 Nick Swisher, 129
2010 Jorge Posada, 115
2011 Mark Teixeira, 121
2011 Robinson Cano, 133
2011 Alex Rodriguez, 119
2011 Curtis Granderson, 142
2011 Nick Swisher, 120
2012 Mark Teixeira, 115
2012 Robinson Cano, 148
2012 Curtis Granderson, 115
2012 Nick Swisher, 125
2014 Brian McCann, 94
2014 Mark Teixeira, 101
2014 Brian Roberts, 87
2014 Brett Gardner, 111
2014 Jacoby Ellsbury, 111
2014 Ichiro Suzuki, 89
2014 Carlos Beltran, 98

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Inspector_666 posted:

Ok but what does his place in the order have to do with Jeter? This is a criticism of Joe Girardi.

And the Yankees organization in general, yes. My point is that Jeter's HoF case is based on his counting numbers, and the Yankees helped boost those numbers by not benching/cutting him when he was not a very good player any more, and that a non-Yankee Jeter has a much tougher argument for HoF consideration.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Inspector_666 posted:

I think you're dead wrong about the last part. His WAR and WAA and JAWS numbers are very, very good for shortstops.

On the JAWS leaderboard he's in between Alan Trammell, who was never voted into the HoF, and Barry Larkin, who was 3rd ballot.

e: in no way am I suggesting that he's not a HoFer. I'll quote my original post again here because people seem to have missed it:

quote:

Jeter's a HoFer, but I think it's fair to say he wouldn't be a first-ballot near-unanimous guy if he wasn't a Yankee.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Paul Zuvella posted:

Oh my god he is between a dude on the hall of fame and another dude who should be in the hall of fame.

Call the loving presses we have a story here!

Neither of whom were first-ballot and neither of whom got anywhere loving near the 95%+ that Jeter is most likely going to get.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006
My issue, which I keep having to come back to, is that Jeter's case is better for him having been a Yankee than it would be had he been on another team. This is clearly not his fault and I certainly have never said I blame him for it.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Rad Valtar posted:

Barry Bonds was a hall of famer before he even starting doping.

loving truth. Before 1998 (which is when he started according to Game of Shadows) he had 7400 PAs with a 162 OPS+, 3 MVPs and 91.5 WAR.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Popete posted:

Yeah good point, from a purely statistical standpoint it's better for both the defender and hitter if the infield has bad range.

I wouldn't be opposed to just counting reaching base on an error as a hit, I mean that's basically what happens already when an outfielder misses a fly out.

This is never going to happen while ERA is still a thing.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

KICK BAMA KICK posted:

The dumb advanced version of a dumb stat I was thinking of recently is the Quality Start Plus: add a + for each inning beyond six or earned run fewer than three. A CGSO becomes a QS++++++.

Quality Starts definitely need to be changed to account for the current average level of offense. 6 innings and 3 runs is a 4.5 ERA which, right now, is a pretty poor definition of "quality".

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

The Walrus posted:

the fact everyone else was doing it, or it was tacitly endorsed, or whatever excused for cheating you want to put on it are irrelevant. he was cheating and got caught. all records are suspect.

This just in, Hall of Fame credentials should be based not on how good a player you were but on how good you were at avoiding being caught taking the same pills and supplements everybody else was taking.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Submarine Sandpaper posted:

does this coincide with a replacement player line?

It depends on IP, but over a full season it's slightly better than replacement level. Yordano Ventura pitched 186 IP with a 4.45 ERA last year for a WAR of 1.5, for example.

Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Popete posted:

Fielders Choice is fine in most cases, but there are times where the only play is to get the lead runner in which case the hitter gets no credit where as if there was no lead runner they would have had a hit.

It's theoretically possible this could happen (slow runner on first, fast runner at the plate, ground ball hit into the hole) but I certainly can't recall seeing it actually ever take place.

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Julio Cruz
May 19, 2006

Inspector_666 posted:

Also

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JwMfT2cZGHg

Roids don't matter if you have a .600 OBP without the bat!

I'm still skeptical about this conclusion. For one thing, pitches Bonds sees at 0-2 are not going to have the same ball-strike ratio as pitches he sees at 3-0.

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