|
The best thing for the democrats would be a blue wave in 2020. They need to take all the state houses to fix the districts into not giving the GOP a 5-8% advantage in the popular vote for congressional seats. The worst thing is Nancy loving Pelosi taking office in 2018, giving the republicans back the opposition title with a nationally unpopular woman president to bring the regressives out in droves again when we are beyond due for a recession.
|
#
¿
Jun 8, 2017 18:49
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 17, 2024 09:33 |
|
|
J.K. Rowling is as pro twitter follow, tho.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 9, 2017 17:59
|
|
|
Oh now the GOP is against "second amendment remedies"?
|
|
#
¿
Jun 14, 2017 14:16
|
|
|
Now they're saying it wasn't even Scalise that got hit, but one of his staffers.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 14, 2017 14:24
|
|
|
gently caress.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 14, 2017 15:46
|
|
|
The house majority whip being shot is bigger news than rando civilians being killed, sorry to say. Unfortunately that's because one is a novel event and the other happens all the loving time.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 14, 2017 20:16
|
|
|
There were only like 2.5 million US deaths total in 2008, so...
|
|
#
¿
Jun 14, 2017 21:20
|
|
|
Or the GOP knows that it's a much bigger deal for dem supporters to get to the polls than for GOP supporters who have nothing to do in a given day other than watch fox news, so they try to make it seem like its not worth it for the dem supporters to go vote. My personal theory is that the news coverage calling the presidential election in the bag for Hillary was the main thing that cost her the election by suppressing turnout.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 16, 2017 15:18
|
|
|
mcmagic posted:Thats what was supposed to happen for the last 10 years and they took completely control of government at all levels. This is why people need to vote in midterms. Has anyone ever studied if the pendulum effect of dem->gop->dem has anything to do with the fact that every other decade the votes that decide the party in power during redistricting happens to coincide with the presidential vote?
|
|
#
¿
Jun 16, 2017 16:55
|
|
|
Trump Thread II: Leon Trotsky is trolling you.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 20, 2017 14:31
|
|
|
The ACHA will not cause "millions of american deaths", stop being hyperbolic. Tens of thousands of american deaths, sure. Millions of bankruptcies, wouldn't be surprised. Insane premium increases for the sick, absolutely. The loss of thousands of jobs in the health care industry and fewer options for coverage, you bet. Declining quality of life for the working poor, absolutely. Focus on arguments that aren't completely divorced in reality, please.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 20, 2017 18:38
|
|
|
empty whippet box posted:I remember reading estimates that said things like 50,000 more deaths per year after the AHCA. The death rate in 2013 was 8.39 per 1,000. The death rate in 2014 (first year of ACA market place with ~10-11 million newly covered americans) was 8.15 per 1,000. That equates to about 51,000 fewer deaths. I don't think this can be entirely attributed to the ACA, but that estimate is at least in the same order of magnitude as what the data could indicate. Trabisnikof posted:Depends, which year do you pretend we change from the AHCA to a better alternative. Leave the system in place long enough and you'll see millions die because of it. Add in increase disease due to climate change and it might be faster than you think. It would take 15-20 years to hit 1,000,000 deaths. 30-40 years to hit "millions". I don't think we're looking at 30 years before the AHCA gets superseded by something better. Edit: Dog tax? 
|
|
#
¿
Jun 20, 2017 19:10
|
|
|
What if the hacker just runs gob's program?
|
|
#
¿
Jun 20, 2017 19:54
|
|
|
mcmagic posted:Trump won by 1. You can't go by what an incumbent won by last time. i think this guy is on to something and defo knows how elections work
|
|
#
¿
Jun 20, 2017 20:13
|
|
|
empty whippet box posted:I'm splitting hairs here, but it drives me nuts when people make oral sex jokes about 'blowing' a clarinet, because I'm pretty sure if you get someone to put their mouth on your dick and then force as much air down it as they possibly can, as fast as they can, it will not sound like a clarinet. Speak for yourself man.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 20, 2017 23:09
|
|
|
yeah why didn't the dems take the seats in the incredibly safe districts where the gop advised trump it would be safe to create a special election by nominating the current congressperson? the world is ending and i am so sadskylined! posted:how? by scaring the GOP into being more centrist
|
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2017 15:10
|
|
|
ImpAtom posted:I'm pretty sure the tens of thousands of people who are going to die in the next few years don't feel very comforted at the idea that "progressivism is making some gains" when those gains are "We're not losing AS BADLY as we might have" in a game where anything short of a win is 100% meaningless. You really think 8-12 points movement towards the left is 100% meaningless?
|
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2017 15:24
|
|
|
sean10mm posted:You mean that thing that hasn't happened in living memory? There are plenty of people alive that remember moderate republicans.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2017 15:30
|
|
|
ImpAtom posted:Yes, I do. Call me when it actually leads to a win or to the GOP changing their plans an iota or when it seems remotely likely this will continue to last until 2018 instead of the Democratic voters finding a reason not to vote. Frankly I think the Democrats lost because they pushed tons of money into it. It's a ruby red district, you don't want high turnout, you want low turnout. Don't give the GOP something to rally behind.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2017 15:53
|
|
|
I just don't see the point in flipping the gently caress out about something that can't be changed now. Figure out what you can learn from it, apply that to the future. Don't delude yourself that the situation is either hopeless or that the future is certain.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2017 15:57
|
|
|
B B posted:Lawl. Can't believe I missed that. Either way, there are a lot of opportunities for pockups next year. I do not believe Dems taking over the house is in any way guaranteed, but if Dems get their poo poo together (lol) they do have a chance. The previous house election in GA-6 was GOP +23.2. This election was GOP +3.8. The turnout was bigger than a mid-term. Please grab a hold of yourself.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2017 16:01
|
|
|
TyrantWD posted:Hillary trailed Trump by 1.5, Ossoff lost by more than that. This apple is significantly different from this orange, I agree.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2017 16:16
|
|
|
It's almost as though GA-6 GOP voters going for one of the two third party candidates that represented their political views out of severe dislike of the GOP candidate depressed their votes for the GOP presidential candidate. If only there were another race on the same ballot we could look at to discern their typical preferences.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2017 16:19
|
|
|
Trabisnikof posted:Nuclear power is dead in the US because the construction companies are bankrupting themselves when they try to build new plants and most power operators don't want to deal with the financial proposition of running an expensive and complicated plant when gas and renewables are so cheap. If the public opinion wasn't such a problem, we could tax coal and natural gas plants to price in the externalities of climate change and health issues and reverse the math on that particular roadblock.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2017 17:20
|
|
|
Trabisnikof posted:Public opinion isn't what's stopping a carbon tax, republican politicians and their donors are. Look even republicans have to answer to public opinion within their own districts. The issue is that the public opinion in their districts is currently "gently caress the poor, the minorities, and the planet". You get climate change to poll over 50% with GOP primary voters and you will get movement on that front. (Alternate route, fix gerrymandering so GOP pols actually have to care what non-tea party "patriots" think).
|
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2017 17:26
|
|
|
Trabisnikof posted:Not really. You can have 90% Republican voters approve an idea and they won't punish their Representatives because they don't care about the issue. Did you sleep through the entire tea party movement? quote:Getting Republicans to believe climate change is the biggest issue facing America is a tall order compared to just getting them to like a carbon tax. Agreed. Reik posted:Unlikely as studies have shown congressional actions are much more correlated with lobbyists and interest groups than the public opinion. Yeah, true, but that has alot to do with the requirement for coordinated action to get things done in congress. 5 random congressmen wanting movement on climate change won't get the bill past the committee and to the floor. Lobbyists and interest groups can target the right 5 congressmen to make that happen, and once the issue is up for public debate everyone more or less has to take a stance on it.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2017 17:38
|
|
|
TARDISman posted:Isn't the reason they're ramming AHCA through is because McConnell's doesn't want town halls scaring the piss out of already nervous Republican senators? No, it's because the AHCA is the least popular legislation since TARP, and the less time the press has to cover its details the less damage it does to the GOP right now. Consider further that they're going to phase it in over several years to attempt to limit the real damage before the 2018/2020 elections and punt the blame for cutting out popular provisions to the state legislature by writing those cuts in as waiver options. Public opinion on this has them spooked. Not enough to prevent action, but enough to attempt to mitigate the damage.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2017 17:44
|
|
|
Rigel posted:The district (by Cook's PVI) is really just R+8. Its not really +15 or +20 if you don't have a multi-term incumbent. We only did a few points better than expected for an open contested election between 2 new candidates. Look the way D's win isn't by increasing turnout in a district like this, it's by taking advantage of the naturally suppressed turnout of a party in power enacting unpopular legislation with a literal man child at the helm. The D's dumped so much money and drew so much attention to the race it had a bigger turnout than the last midterm.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2017 18:16
|
|
|
Crows Turn Off posted:Do you really have high-hopes for SCOTUS to over-turn political gerrymandering? I mean, it seems that SCOTUS has been fairly against gerrymandering in recent years, but I don't think they've ever heard a case about political gerrymandering. Thomas joined the more liberal justices in the previous ruling against NC, but that was gerrymandering based on race. I can't see Thomas going along with them this time. And Gorsuch is a piece of human poo poo, so of course he'll say it's fine. Kennedy has said if there were a test that could prove political gerrymandering he'd rule against it. We now have such a test- you can look at the total number of "wasted votes" by party (that is, any vote that takes the party above 50% of the district's votes, or any vote for a party that does not result in a victory), and when one party has way more wasted votes than the other party, it provides evidence of gerrymandering. More reading -> https://newrepublic.com/article/118534/gerrymandering-efficiency-gap-better-way-measure-gerrymandering
|
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2017 18:41
|
|
|
skylined! posted:actually if you read the last twenty pages going back to the beginning of the election results i believe you will find that it is indeed many people's position. also of thousands of 'progressives' on twitter, but i guess that's not wholly relevant. Why are you comparing presidential turnout numbers to special election turnout numbers? The midterms would be a better comparison, but even then you should expect a depressed turnout. 2014 midterms was 139,018 R to 71,486 D 2017 special was 134,595 R to 124,893 D The story here is that this was a very good turnout the republicans and an astoundingly good turnout the democrats for a special election. Dietrich fucked around with this message at 18:58 on Jun 21, 2017 |
|
#
¿
Jun 21, 2017 18:55
|
|
|
Can we add mcmagic to the list of people no one should respond to?
|
|
#
¿
Jun 22, 2017 16:29
|
|
|
Aves Maria! posted:Uh yes, in fact, it can. At the moment House Dems are unified. That's not a guarantee if you start making sacrificial lambs of every single person in a leadership role. 
|
|
#
¿
Jun 22, 2017 16:39
|
|
|
No I want to continue talking about why the Dem's didn't win R+24 district special elections and how it's all Nancy Pelosi's fault for existing.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 22, 2017 16:46
|
|
|
twice burned ice posted:You broke brained moron. That was a presidential election year. More people come out for those (loving shocking!). Compare Handel's vote counts to that election and you'll see Ossoff did really well to turn out that many for a special election.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 22, 2017 16:59
|
|
|
Crazycryodude posted:Wait time out I've been out of the loop for a few days, why can't the Dems just filibuster the drat bill to make sure it never goes anywhere? Or have the Republicans given up on permanent tax cuts and are now trying to do healthcare via reconciliation? The Republicans are doing it via reconciliation.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 22, 2017 18:30
|
|
|
RBG will straight up kick yo rear end.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 22, 2017 20:45
|
|
|
In case you forgot what it was like to have a fully functional adult as president:Barack Obama posted:Our politics are divided. They have been for a long time. And while I know that division makes it difficult to listen to Americans with whom we disagree, that’s what we need to do today. Dietrich fucked around with this message at 21:00 on Jun 22, 2017 |
|
#
¿
Jun 22, 2017 20:58
|
|
|
The bill won't make premiums go up so much as it will make coverage options lovely again. Except for old people and people with pre-existing conditions, who will be turbo-hosed.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 22, 2017 21:03
|
|
|
Can I get a gently caress DONALD TRUMP?
|
|
#
¿
Jun 23, 2017 05:20
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 17, 2024 09:33 |
|
|
Hmm yes if only we'd ran on the platform of increasing the minimum wage, raising taxes and providing more services to the poor the GA-06 voters with their median income of $72,832 would have fallen all over themselves to get to the polls.
|
|
#
¿
Jun 23, 2017 15:04
|
|