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What is the best flav... you all know what this question is: This poll is closed. |
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| Labour |
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907 | 49.92% |
| Theresa May Team (Conservative) |
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48 | 2.64% |
| Liberal Democrats |
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31 | 1.71% |
| UKIP |
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13 | 0.72% |
| Plaid Cymru |
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25 | 1.38% |
| Green |
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22 | 1.21% |
| Scottish Socialist Party |
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12 | 0.66% |
| Scottish Conservative Party |
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1 | 0.06% |
| Scottish National Party |
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59 | 3.25% |
| Some Kind of Irish Unionist |
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4 | 0.22% |
| Alliance / Irish Nonsectarian |
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3 | 0.17% |
| Some Kind of Irish Nationalist |
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36 | 1.98% |
| Misc. Far Left Trots |
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35 | 1.93% |
| Misc. Far Right Fash |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Monster Raving Loony |
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49 | 2.70% |
| Space Navies Party |
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39 | 2.15% |
| Independent / Single Issue |
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2 | 0.11% |
| Can't Vote |
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188 | 10.35% |
| Won't Vote |
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8 | 0.44% |
| Spoiled Ballot |
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15 | 0.83% |
| Pissflaps |
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312 | 17.17% |
| Total: | 1817 votes | ||
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Pissflaps posted:I just love election night telly. I do hope you'll be providing us with live commentary. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 1, 2017 00:07
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Comrade Cheggorsky posted:I am expecting a strong showing from Pissflaps this election, i hope i am not disappointed What's the point in the Conservatives now Pissflaps has adopted all of their policy positions?
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Jun 1, 2017 00:30
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Darth Walrus posted:Word. This twenty-six-year-old article will never stop being accurate and relevant. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KJSnd8VzQw
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Jun 1, 2017 13:06
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Looking at the numbers I don't think YouGov is as big an outlier as some people are claiming. Here's the last results for each different pollster in the last week: YouGov: 39% (30-31 May) SurveyMonkey: 38% (Pre 31-May ?) ORB: 38% (24-25 May) Survation: 37% (26-27 May) ComRes: 34% (24-26 May) Opinium: 35% (23-24 May) Kantar: 33% (25-30 May) ICM: 33% (26-29 May) So as many polls are in the 37-39% range as are in the 33-35% range. There's methodological differences to explain the two herds and we don't know who's right of course, but the YouGov results is in line with the other pollsters making more similar assumptions as them.
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Jun 1, 2017 13:17
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Anidav posted:Are you guys Strong and stable yet？ Strong and stably descending into chaos.
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Jun 1, 2017 13:31
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mediadave posted:Do we know when other, non yougov polls are coming out? It's not just London. They've closed a 20 point gap in Midlands/Wales and gone from a tie to 10 points ahead in the North in the crosstabs.
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Jun 1, 2017 13:40
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#LibDemFightback
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Jun 1, 2017 14:35
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Prince John posted:'Tolerant left' has always struck me as a bit of a misnomer. A belief in social justice creates no obligations to tolerate social injustice. Maybe the misconception is that we "tolerate" woman, gays, browns, etc as opposed to just not thinking they're below us perfect white men.
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Jun 1, 2017 14:40
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https://twitter.com/election_data/status/870253240163631105 This is one of the reasons I've never thought the huge Conservative majority predictions would materialise. They're just going to win BIG where they already win.
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Jun 1, 2017 14:48
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mediadave posted:Do we know how pollsters have changed their models since 2015? This might answer some of your questions. https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/pollsters-experimental-election/ Mr. Flunchy posted:Currently smiling as I remember all those smug Tories chortling about spending £3 to vote Corbyn. I hope you get interviewed on TV after Corbyn wins.
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Jun 1, 2017 17:45
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I think I can hear the sound of goalposts being dragged along the ground by Dan Hodges somewhere.
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Jun 2, 2017 11:59
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Jose posted:what did ipso mori have labour polling at before the election got called? As has been pointed out already 30% a month before and 26% the week after. So They have Labour up around 10%-14% over the campaign. I'm excited. Namtab posted:Please bear in mind before becoming hopeful that old people may very well have postally voted weeks ago They usually ask if you've postal voted.
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Jun 2, 2017 12:14
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Pissflaps posted:That might happen if Corbyn doesn't resign after the election. It's hard to see that if (and this is now a fairly likely scenario) Labour got ~37% and the Tories squeaked by with a 20-30 seat majority that the more anti-Corbyn elements of the PLP would be inclined to jump ship to the absolute trainwreck of the Lib Dems, especially since the most anti-Corbyn MPs tend to come from very Brexity seats. We might be in for our 3rd annual Labour leadership contest though.
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Jun 2, 2017 12:21
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https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870613394596012032 After being "the most popular PM ever" May must be breaking some kind of record in biggest dive in approval ratings too. Edit: The 17th May Ipsos poll had her on 55/35, so that's a 27 point drop in net satisfaction. Corbyn was on 31/58, so that's a 16 point gain in net satisfaction. So May has gone from being 47 points ahead in satisfaction to being 4 points ahead in two weeks Lord of the Llamas fucked around with this message at 13:16 on Jun 2, 2017 |
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Jun 2, 2017 13:12
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https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/870637885409681408 Go go go.
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Jun 2, 2017 14:47
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God damnit I just got a call to be in the QT audience for this Sunday but I won't be in Edinburgh that night in the end 
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Jun 2, 2017 15:32
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/ng-interactive/2017/jun/02/the-guardian-view-on-our-vote-its-labour?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other They waited as long as they could for the #LibDemFightback I guess.
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Jun 2, 2017 18:07
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Pochoclo posted:What the hell is this "allotment" thing I keep reading in this thread? I mean, from what I can google, it's some kind of piece of land you get where you grow stuff, but does the government lease it for free or what? The Wikipedia article is not very clear on this other than "low rent". Councils own them and it usually costs £40-100 per year depending where you live, a full size plot is 250sq metres.
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Jun 2, 2017 18:13
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https://twitter.com/Davidbr55025958/status/870693254848696320 Twitter shitbag comes out against free secondary education.
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Jun 2, 2017 18:28
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HJB posted:
It was a fake account. Hard to tell though.
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Jun 2, 2017 18:52
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https://twitter.com/DavidHadley1973/status/871168237765099521
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Jun 4, 2017 01:56
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spectralent posted:
Maybe he means Labour's open border policy on opening Iraq's borders. He doesn't though.
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Jun 4, 2017 02:13
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OwlFancier posted:Eh, I would tend to say it's somewhat accurate and I think it's a good way to describe it publicly. Yeah there's definitely a difference between attacking defenceless people on the street and the state security apparatus.
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Jun 4, 2017 02:18
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jabby posted:That's true, but anyone who does it knows they're essentially committing suicide by police. It's horrific and inexcusable, but calling it cowardly feels almost like a deliberate refusal to try and understand the motivations behind the acts. I suppose; it's more indiscriminate than cowardly. I don't think they would've preferred to have killed police or soldiers rather than random civilians. Still took the easy option though I guess.
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Jun 4, 2017 02:35
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Mister Adequate posted:"Murderous prick" seems to fit the bill but yeah fair enough, if you're identifying young men as the most likely culprits you'll want to downplay any sense of heroism, too. If we could persuade the whole of the press to just report them as indiscriminate murders without all the panic and fanfare I think that would go a long way.
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Jun 4, 2017 02:43
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knox_harrington posted:Edit to add I am dumbfounded that people are openly calling for internment camps. What the gently caress is going on. Katie Hopkins is not a person.
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Jun 4, 2017 17:35
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ultrabindu posted:This poll has 18-24 year olds on an 82% turnout. In 2015 in was 44%. It would seem young people really do hold the key to this election. How do you work that one out?
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Jun 5, 2017 00:10
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ronya posted:Barrow and Furness is a marginal that is especially hostile to any perception of insufficient patriotism, any Labour MP would be wise to distance himself or herself from any suggestion of it Losing votes because you've obsessively alienated the left wingers in your constituency is also a bad idea in a tight race. dispatch_async posted:https://twitter.com/Kent_Online/status/871684502132862977 Best part is that I'd believe you if you told me it was pro-EU protesters or 'kippers.
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Jun 5, 2017 15:09
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ronya posted:the corbyn aura will keep those idiots on-side, at least for now. so the marginal voter, this time literally just a few hundred of them, are what matter in a town that maintains nuclear subs. telling them that at least you'll nominally fight for trident is the least you can do There's being critical of Corbyn and then there's being John Woodcock. Saying he wouldn't even vote in a Corbyn government means that he's functionally the same as a Tory MP for anyone on the left.
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Jun 5, 2017 15:27
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big scary monsters posted:I don't think that this young person is going to be able to vote, my postal ballot hasn't reached me yet and even if it turns up tomorrow I think it might be too late. My constituency has a huge SNP majority with Labour in distant second (Tories got 7% in 2015 lol), so I guess it won't matter. You can take your postal vote to the polling station on election day. This is a rather important election. Pissflaps posted:When Corbyn fails to defeat the worst Tory campaign in living memory it will take a brave person to continue insisting I am wrong. You've shamelessly dragged your goalposts and everybody in this thread knows it.
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Jun 6, 2017 08:45
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Pissflaps posted:Can you explain how they have moved? Uh. You, on the 13th of May: quote:If Corbyn equals are slightly betters the vote share of Miliband or Brown then I hope he follows their example and resigns as party leader immediately after it becomes apparent he has been unable to deliver a Labour government.
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Jun 6, 2017 09:20
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Pissflaps posted:Yes that's also me sharing my opinion that the Tories will win with a large majority. In that post you said 80+ and in the previous post you said 150+. This is just a fact. A matter of record.
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Jun 6, 2017 09:38
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Pissflaps posted:I suspect this will be the main talking point of the day. It won't be, because the Tories won't win an 80 seat majority.
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Jun 6, 2017 09:44
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Pissflaps posted:What result are you anticipating ? At this point I'm expecting the Tories to win with a ~20 seat majority. But I think there's a ~25% chance of a hung parliament. It's worth pointing out that taking the worst poll for Labour (11 point Tory lead) and plugging it into the worst model (uniform swing) yields a Tory majority of 84 seats.
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Jun 6, 2017 09:50
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kustomkarkommando posted:In not surprised the Tories are targeting don valley, it falls neatly into the bracket of seats that voted leave where the combined Tory+UKIP vote would exceed the Labour vote share (slimly in this case) which was always considered a bracket of Tory targets Yeah, for reference, the results of that constituency in 2015: Labour: 46.2 Con: 25.3 UKIP: 23.5 The fact is that we live in a post-Brexit climate and there will probably be some big upsets going both ways on the night.
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Jun 6, 2017 10:16
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jBrereton posted:No, but Michael Foot did. Michael Foot also polled 15 points behind the Tories because of the loving SDP/Liberal Alliance dickheads.
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Jun 6, 2017 15:41
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Pissflaps posted:That'll be a seat to watch on election night. Seems unlikely as UKIP are standing a candidate. Which is weird because Skinner voted leave 
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Jun 6, 2017 16:10
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According to current polls, Tory net gains on UKIP vote only puts about 10 seats at risk. But my intuition would be that people who went Lab > UKIP are a little bit less likely to go Con than people who went Con > UKIP or DNV > UKIP and so we might see a smaller effect in Labour seats and a bigger effect in Tory seats. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the Tories pipping 70% in places like Boston (despite the discoverer of DNA, Paul Nuttall, standing there).
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Jun 6, 2017 16:34
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https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/872125306152394752
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Jun 6, 2017 17:19
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| # ¿ Apr 29, 2024 22:56 |
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ShaneMacGowansTeeth posted:God lord, nearly 10 pieces of election material delivered today, the Tories will probably hold Portsmouth South but they're acting like they're going to lose it If the rumours of the Lib Dem collapse in the south west are true and the greens also mainly plump for Labour it's not a foregone conclusion.
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Jun 6, 2017 22:19
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