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What is the best flav... you all know what this question is:
This poll is closed.
Labour 907 49.92%
Theresa May Team (Conservative) 48 2.64%
Liberal Democrats 31 1.71%
UKIP 13 0.72%
Plaid Cymru 25 1.38%
Green 22 1.21%
Scottish Socialist Party 12 0.66%
Scottish Conservative Party 1 0.06%
Scottish National Party 59 3.25%
Some Kind of Irish Unionist 4 0.22%
Alliance / Irish Nonsectarian 3 0.17%
Some Kind of Irish Nationalist 36 1.98%
Misc. Far Left Trots 35 1.93%
Misc. Far Right Fash 8 0.44%
Monster Raving Loony 49 2.70%
Space Navies Party 39 2.15%
Independent / Single Issue 2 0.11%
Can't Vote 188 10.35%
Won't Vote 8 0.44%
Spoiled Ballot 15 0.83%
Pissflaps 312 17.17%
Total: 1817 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
  • Locked thread
CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
They would have to be mad to let May run another election.

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CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

UnlimitedSpessmans posted:

tories don't need it for a majority with dup but if labour get it then even with dup then all it takes is 1 tory rebel to stop any vote.

well, assuming total discipline from all opposition parties (cough woodcock cough)

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Angepain posted:

are they just saying "so, uh, gay rights, then?" and filming her reaction?

what do you say for all the scottish people who voted for a nice lesbian scottish lady and got a government who hates every word in that description

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Miftan posted:

poo poo, do we have any regulars with artistic talent? Maybe put a jar (var) of jam in it?

the jammy bastards

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Hoops posted:

For this week, yes. You will basically never hear about the DUP in the news again after the next few weeks, so they might end up being a great choice for the Tories as it gets them a government that is pretty much 100% Conservative Party in the eyes of the public without having to actually win the seats.

I doubt it. They're a hell of a stick to beat a sitting government with in a bunch of different directions; some DUP MP will be saying stupid poo poo about women, LBGT rights, the climate etc on a weekly basis. They're really really to the right of even May's political consensus: the nasty party will be back in a big way.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

josh04 posted:

Can we take a moment to put to bed all that shite about targeted facebook ads brainwashing the nation?

To play devil's advocate, the Labour party had a fundraising advantage for the first time in a long time and as the polls unexpectedly tightened a bunch of resources would start being freed up for safer seats. Maybe they spent that money on targeted Facebook ads in marginals, and maybe that's one of the reasons so many Labour voters made their decision so late according to Ashcroft's polling?

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

jabby posted:

I'll never tire of pollsters ability to predict something with absolute confidence, be proven totally wrong, and immediately start offering their expert analysis on why the result turned out that way.

Well in this case his pitch is somewhere between "people made up their minds late, foiling pollsters who can't afford every second before the election" and "the youth vote drastically outperformed most people's wildest expectations". Both pretty reasonable, and again, a lot of the election results this year were within the margin or error.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

spiderbot posted:

How many of these decisions in the past few days are actually supported by Tory MPs? Are they really so desperate that they are in favour of May staying and and agreement with the DUP? I wouldn't be surprised if May has gone rogue and is doing all this solo to do anything she can to fend off the vultures.

Absolutely, but as important to mention is that even the most crotchety backbench MP who's not in denial must be concerned about the momentum Labour is showing after this election. Their supporters are demoralized and shocked (particularly anyone who voted for the Ruth Davidson party) and Labour's are energized and hopeful that the PLP will either fall in line finally or at least learn to hate quietly. They do not want another election and are hoping for Labour to go back to loving up before they're forced into calling another.

CoolCab fucked around with this message at 14:05 on Jun 10, 2017

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

kustomkarkommando posted:

Not to sound to bitter there, I welcome the solidarity that's emerged against the regressive anti-lgbt policies here but after years of being involved in these issues the fact it took the DUPs shittiness possibly personally affecting those across the water for people to wake up to the issue leaves me miffed

In the efforts of fairness, I think a lot of people on the left in the UK are really hesitant to look like they're telling NI what to do in any respect - moralizing and paternalism had been used to justify intervention for so long that a hands off approach seemed the safest course. Because people stopped talking about it it stopped being taught.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

ThomasPaine posted:



Confidence and supply means the DUP will vote through a Tory queens speech but stent part if the government. The Tories therefore have no power over them and will be forced to make concessions in exchange for their continued support. This is slightly less controversial probably but super fragile because the second the DUP get mad and have a tantrum May is impotent.

And it makes her position within her own party even weaker, because confidence and supply means that the DUP make calls on a vote by vote basis - if they were in coalition, as distasteful as that would be, they could work out deals for the entirety of their government (cabinet positions, big concessions, whatever) and have them somewhat solidified. Now, she might need a massive concession to the DUP to pass one vote, and if they get it, they can demand a massive concession for a second vote, and if they get it etc etc etc. Losing a bunch of times in the house of commons is a bad look - whoever has knifed her will be desperate for another election.

Chaos reigns.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

CottonWolf posted:

That's not going to happen, and neither is voter ID, same with boundary changes. They were all going to be controversial. No way anything controversial gets passed now.

I bet boundary reform will be pushed through, it just won't be as blatant.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
This

https://twitter.com/JWoodcockMP/status/856546432509202433

is still John "The j, o h, n, w, o, o and also the d is silent" Woodcock's pinned tweet, despite the fact he's been tweeting quite a bit since Thursday night. Some highlights:

Only registered members can see post attachments!

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

forkboy84 posted:

Momentum campaigning for him and him winning is fun. I would say he's fairly harmless now.

Bullshit he is. He most likely believes that being a huge dick to Corbyn was the only thing that kept the Trident jobs bloc onside, and found out that Momentum will campaign for him for the left vote regardless of the nonsense he spouts, and can literally say things that should under Labour bylaws have him ejected from the party with no consequence.

He's about as harmless as a radium enema.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

jabby posted:

The difference now is that he can spout off all he wants. Everyone knows his attacks on Corbyn are bullshit and everyone knows it's only by the grace of Corbyn supporters that he kept his seat.

I really want you to examine that last sentence. Do you think the narrative that the press will push is "Woodcock saved by grassroots activism" or "Woodcock saved because of his turn against Corbyn"? Or, in a broader sense, do you think they'll push either and instead just present him as "Labour MP who only marginally held his seat John Woodcock" or much more likely "Sources within the Labour party say..."

quote:

In reality there have always been individual backbench MPs who don't back the leader (Corbyn was one of them) the only difference with Woodcock is how vocal he was and how eager the press was to lap it up.

That difference is still absolutely true.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
Bojo absolutely could be PM fwiw. He's a total clown, but he's the kind of failing-upward buffoon that UK loves to hate and hates that they love.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
A question from a Canadian expat who's familiarity with UK politics gets much murkier the farther back he goes (pretty good any time after Major, knows the broad strokes of Thatcher ie poll tax, miner strikes, privatization, secretly being a hateful swarm of hornets in a trenchcoat, etc but pretty lovely before then) what are the precedents for situations like this and for majorities as thin as this one? Have they happened in postwar UK history and what was the outcome?

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Skinty McEdger posted:

Both of which have had leadership bids, or in the case of Davidson movements, being strangled in the womb by leaks to the Tory press this weekend.

Ruth also would need to be an MP first.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
To be fair, the better Labour are polling the less incentive the Tories/DUP have of risking an election. Regardless of how shambolic they become, we'll still need a vote of no confidence most likely to get them out.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
the fuckin nutjobs have the tories by the short hairs and it's amazing. they'll demand something that will piss some significant fraction of the tories off, probably related to LBGT rights or women, and either refuse to stave off the immediate election or wind up obliterated at their (most likely soon) next, Ruth particularly as it will include the Scottish Parliament elections

a DUP fuckup will get in the papers saying something abhorrent on a bi-weekly basis for as long as this nonsense parade goes on

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

thehappyprince posted:

the youth turned out because they had something to vote for. they'll do it again, especially with all the cases where 20 odd votes was the decider.

labour should definitely have student loan debt relief in the next manifesto too imo

offer ridiculous rates of debt forgiveness (say, 30+ pounds an hour) for volunteering in your community or otherwise working towards to the greater social good. you work as a nurse at a decent wage, and in addition three (or more) times that gets forgiven off your debt for every pound you earn

offer a similar deal to the free tuition fees students to cover their other costs like housing or books, food, etc

call it national service to get the old bastards on your side

job done

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

botany posted:

sorry for dragging this up again but can anyone explain to a foreigner what the deal is with scotland trending conservative? i always thought of scotland as fairly left, did something happen specifically to make them trend right?

The Scottish Labour party is devolved and their MPs/party apparatus was primarily descended from the Blair years, where Scotland was such a total Labour stronghold that it was used to parachute in more right wing candidates and, although probably not to the extent some people claim (Brown our last Labour Prime Minister was Scottish) was taken for granted. This chafed Scotland for the reasons you listed- a bit like Canada, they'd partially developed a national identity of being the cooler more left wing neighbor to the country below them. Scottish Labour never stopped being the kind of centrist-careerist-Blairites that Corbyn represents a break from, which left a hole for left wing voters. Enter the SNP.

The Scottish Nationalist Party capitalized on these conditions by completely revamping their image (they used to vote with the Conservatives and were dismissively called "tartan tories") into one of a progressive nationalist party. Soon enough they started gaining success in their regional parliament and implementing wildly popular policies: no tuition fees and free prescriptions are some examples. They parlayed this support into a push for a Scottish independence referendum (which I do not claim to be neutral on, I do not think it is/was a good idea for either country) which although unsuccessful, gave them a very energized and enthusiastic base. This base was a very broad church (basically everyone who wanted independence from all sides of the political spectrum) so they nabbed almost literally every single Scottish MP seat in the 2015 election.

Unfortunately, they made noises about another independence referendum recently (bad, bad call) and the Scottish Conservative party had elected a wildly popular politician, Ruth Davidson, a much more socially liberal person who was fantastic on gay rights (being married to a woman herself) and who managed to detoxify the party, mostly through her personal brand.

So: Scottish Labour is a basketcase but Corbyn's personal popularity somewhat split the left vote, the SNP accidentally energized the unionist vote and ran an awful campaign, so the Ruth Davidson party took a bunch of Scottish seats for the Tories. Is that understandable?

CoolCab fucked around with this message at 13:47 on Jun 11, 2017

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

I would blow Dane Cook posted:

How much of the objection to Corbyn is idealogical and how much of it is was about "electability" (awful phrase)?

me on pissflaps the morning after the election

CoolCab posted:

I can't fault him for cynicism: I was calling a 50 seat majority as of 9:30 last night. He wasn't being disingenuous- if he actually believed Corbyn was unelectable, his actions are perfectly consistent with someone trying to advance a Labour government.

You're right in saying that if the center and right got behind him from the beginning we wouldn't be here, but there will be two kinds of those people: those who sincerely didn't believe he could win, who's only sin is cynicism and who can be reformed, and those who couldn't allow him to win because they didn't want it. The latter needs to go.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Zephro posted:

Seems questionable when the anti-Brexit young just voted for you in droves

They're looking for "tariff free trade" and is making steps to cement the existing consequences of freedom of movement via assuring the rights of current EU citizens. I would imagine Corbyn's negotiating strategy would be as soft a brexit as possible without alienating the huge chunk of the country who hates immigration.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Zephro posted:

You can leave the EU without leaving the single market, though. Not even the official Vote Leave campaign wanted to leave the single market. I don't see the need for the continued hard Brexiting.

I don't see the stuff about leaving the single market then negotiating tariff-free trade* and free movement as making any sense, either. Those things are functionally the same as staying in the single market.

*Did they mention regulatory standards too? Because those are at least as big a barrier as tariffs.

Corbyn can't come out for the single market because it's fundamentally tied to free movement and it would be used, effectively, as a cudgel to beat him to death with.

Lexit (if it's possible) is going to be about getting as close to the current arrangement as is feasible with the single market without energizing the hardcore anti-immigration brigade. I hope Corbyn not having the same utter animosity that May and the Tories have earned with the EU might be some credit there, but it's going to fuckin suck regardless.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

jabby posted:

Found an article from the New Statesman with a nice quote from Neil Kinnock last week:


:cawg:

It also links to this one

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/09/peter-mandelson-i-pray-every-day-early-election-end-labours-awful-state

Peter Mandelson while somewhere a finger on a monkey's paw slowly closes posted:

I pray every day for an early election to end Labour's awful state

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

spectralent posted:

Ironically I think the leadership challenges helped, because we've now got tons of veteran volunteer campaigners and campaign organisers.

From simply getting on to the ballot at the very first leadership challenge all the way to last week, Jeremy Corbyn has through some combination of guile and sheer dumb luck capitalized on every attack on him. He'd was put on the ballot to be a an old leftist punching bag as a contrast, and turned that into a crushing victory. They took another swing at him and not only did they fail to dislodge him they cemented his position and fed his team experience and talent. The entire British press spent months bashing him so viciously that May thought she had an open goal (before realizing she was facing the wrong direction) and yet he somehow did it again.

Man's a wizard. I don't get it at all, but I love it.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
So I want to join the Labour party, but I also need to join a union - will joining Unison automatically make me a Labour party member?

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

yo scotgoons, you have every goddamned obligation to scream this at Ruth Davidson at every available opportunity.

scottish tories might be loving tories, but they're still better then this. remind her of it.

(and thanks for the gangtag)

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Angepain posted:



Though if you believe there aren't homophobic members of the Scottish Tories, I have a bridge to sell you. Almost certainly Ruth is just doing a better job at keeping them quiet.

oh, i'm sure. but challenge them on it until they either own up and get eviscerated for it or stay silent like colossal hypocrites (see Mrs Davison herself). they got elected because they never had to prove the nice noises they were making (or the nasty ones they were failing to make)

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

winegums posted:

The idea that the Tories abandoning austerity would put "tanks on Labour's lawn" seems a bit silly. It points far more questions at the Tories

i) Was austerity a mistake?
ii) Why stop it now?
iii) Why are you not going as far as comrade Corbyn?
iv) How will we balance the books / pay off the national credit card?

If you stick to a bullshit meme narrative you have to see it through. This won't work for the same reason Labour's "controls on immigration" didn't work, nobody wants you to be the light version of the other party.

Plus their definition of "ending austerity" is most likely "all right, all right, we'll keep the triple lock and more policemen". They are ideologically committed to reducing the state: Hunt is still in loving Health.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

spectralent posted:

I'm getting genuinely disturbed at how many olds seem to think being the sole deciders of who holds the reins on the political system is their god-given right and that young people need to be disenfranchised and punished for voting "wrong".

It's the loss of the primacy that's really bothering them. You see this in various places, people going "well leftists were mean to me so if anything I'm MORE conservative now!" which is a legitimate threat when you're the only voting bloc that matters: as soon as there's a bloc with parity it becomes utterly meaningless. You're an older person, it's a given that you'll vote Conservative (and show up). People will stop chasing that now.

This is part of what hosed May so bad.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
And often holding viewpoints contradicting the sitting government to some degree, from good constituency MPs who might hold a handful of against the grain ideas to out and out rebels like one Jezza C.

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
thornberry has been on loving fire this campaign, she's massively gone up in my books

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

R. Mute posted:

It kinda is. Switching to tabloid format usually means other, less visible forms of cutting costs have already been implemented. Broadsheets are generally a bit touchy about making the switch to tabloid format, even though the distinction is basically meaningless now. But if they're at the point where their hand is being twisted, well, that's not a good sign.

Though I guess in this case, I can imagine the Guardian's online popularity and quality influencing the decision as well.

r mute! how the hell have you been man? it's been forever

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem
doesn't she constitutionally speaking literally not have executive power right now? how is she supposed to engage in negotiations with sovereign nations?

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

namesake posted:

For a kindly pacifist Corbyn is really good at putting his rivals in the ground.

i said this a year ago after danzicuck. i think corbyn himself is a nice guy, he just has an absolute bastard on his staff.

so, conspiracy theory time. the point at which the corbyn campaign stopped pathetically floundering and started making sudden and utterly unexpected gains was not the manifesto was published, but when the manifesto was leaked. this, which most people assumed was done by someone trying to sabotage corbyn, had a huge impact: first, it was adequately radical that it made the news: policies that were extreme one day were being discussed the next, even if it was in a "what an extreme idea!" context. second, it saved corbyn an embarrassing, in-fight laden conference on these radical proposals: he would have had to spend tons of his (virtually nonexistent) political capital to get these things passed: instead, they had to be passed, they had defacto been promised. people talked about them there had been commitariat think pieces digesting them, they were literally front page news.

that is a really, really good leak. that's the political equivalent of an ex-girlfriend telling everyone you've got a gigantic cock- sure, it's embarrassing for a moment, but once that dust clears- is it all that bad?

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

(sighs) really. today

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

one of the more bitter ironies of this whole wretched mess is that there likely were more then 20 labour voters who died in that loving thing

CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

Angepain posted:

only three minutes off, good job

loving lmao

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CoolCab
Apr 17, 2005

glem

VideoGames posted:



I love this man.

far far too good for this sin cursed earth

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