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Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Okay so, I am a real newbie to all this but can I pop down some of the local "players" and ask for people to correct my understanding of what is going on?

So you have Syria. Which is a cluster-gently caress but one in which Assad is in charge backed by Russia. There are still levels of fighting going on and nothing is "settled" though.

You also have Iran who dislikes Syria but hates Saudi Arabia. Both of them are fighting proxy wars because they hate each other and both would like to be the local potentate. Iran and Iraq are closer now than they have been for some time, and both dislike The Kurds who are currently split between Turkey, Iraq and Iran.

ISIS has by now been reduced to a few scattered groups of people fleeing through open ground and trying desperately not to get butched by whoever catches them first.

Saudi Arabia is currently at war with Iran (by proxy) and Yemen and Lebanon by not proxy. SA has also gone through a palace coup/ succsion crisis over the past few weeks.

Israel dislikes everyone but hasn't been doing too much that I know about recently, would appreciate more information and Egypt is in a similar bag, except not as disliked. Turkey is undergoing large scale problems as well.

In short everything hosed up and I need a map. Have I gotten anything wrong, in which case please point it out.

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Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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I wonder, how likely is it that it will stick or that someone won't try and off the new crown prince (MBS was it?) or he ruins himself/the country with pointless wars.

Also, I know someone mentioned above how bad the SA are at projecting power through their military, but do they have any real military apparatus to speak of?

Josef bugman fucked around with this message at 12:11 on Nov 10, 2017

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Charliegrs posted:

They have a lot of high end equipment bought with all that oil money and a great relationship in with the US. In fact, I think they are like one of our top weapons purchasers. However, for whatever they are notoriously terrible at actually waging war. Supposedly the most competent branch is the national guard and that's because there job is putting down uppity citizens and protecting the royals so they probably get the best soldiers. But against the Iraqis in the gulf war, and the Houthis the last few years they have not fared well at all.

Any reason why? Is it just that there isn't much training and they are piss poor at it, bad commanders etc?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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CrazyLoon posted:

even Saudi royals can't be that disconnected from reality to not know, how dumb repeating history would be nowadays.

My friend Donald Trump is president. I don't think anyone "knows" anything anymore.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Which is the least worst group that are operating in the area?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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It'd help if we didn't keep prodding at things every few years.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Fallen Hamprince posted:

IS has a history of targeting Muslim civilians and neither Sisi nor the Saudis have any good motive for doing something like this. I imagine the forum reactions are from fairweather ISIS fans who dismissed previous atrocities as western/regime propaganda realizing what the people they're supporting are actually about.

There are people like this?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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I don't think anyone is "fellating" Russia here. It seems to be a lot more going "they achieved what they set out to and America didn't". Their objectives were dog poo poo but they got them done, which is a problem for all of us who like things like "none curated democracy" and "not getting the poo poo kicked out of us".

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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On that note, a larger philosophical question: How do we encourage better respect for Human Rights in the Middle East from a policy standpoint?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Volkerball posted:

Lot of big claims in here so far. It's a three part thing.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/942567664358252544

So, hang on, those seem to be two separate systems? The drug money may also go to Hezbollah, but the car thing seems to be entirely different.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Is it just that the House of Saud is so used to getting it's own way that it became poo poo at using threats, or has it always been bad at them?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Okay so about the whole Libya thing, what the gently caress is going on, who the gently caress is in charge and what is the best possible option for everyone to resolve the current situation?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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I mean, was it on the same account? Was it from the same ISP or however we are supposed to track these things?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Whose Mark Ames?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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So, to really try and pull this out of the weeds for just a minute;

Who are the (and I really this is a daft statement) "Good people" who should be supported and who are those who shouldn't? Because it all seems extremely complex and murky. Is there anywhere I can go to learn more about various different things that interlock here?

Sorry to come Krammering into a thread and ask such an obvious question but I find foreign policy is a bit of a minefield for me to learn about. Thank you.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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What is actually happening in Turkey atm? I know Erdoghan's party lost the Istanbul elections, but have there been any real shifts in how he is perceived by most folks in Turkey?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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OhFunny posted:

He just fired the head of the Turkish Central Bank for not lowering interest rates, so we'll see how that plays out.

And is this bad?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Eschenique posted:

Didn't.... Trump personally nix that deal?

Yes. But you see the thing is they want a return to the negotiating table so that Trump can wear his special big boy pants and go "I negotiated a better deal than Obama"

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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CrazyLoon posted:

Far more likely they just stomp on the muslims in the UK as a show of them 'doing something about it,' which they can do much more easily and which'll be far more horrible than just wasting taxpayer money on the lovely Royal Navy to fail.

Never mind that said UK muslims are more likely to be sunni anyway, UK voters that actually vote for proven dipshits like Boris this time around are just the sort of ignoramuses to lap it up. :smith:

I mean the UK isn't saying much about this. It's at least in part because Johnson and the rest do not want to look like complete American stooges for the frothing insanity of the Tory party.

Alongside that, the majority of people do actually seem to really dislike Johnson, more so than any other politician in the country at the moment. It's not all of us voting and, hilariously, Johnson has very little in the way of constitutional "wiggle room" because so many folks in his own party find him repellent.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Why is the KSA army so poo poo BTW?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Rust Martialis posted:

It's like giving the USAF credit for only *wanting* to kill ISIS combatants but they ended up bombing Yet Another Wedding.

Then saying, well, you know, someone at the wedding was probably related to someone in ISIS, or came from the same village, or lent him money once.

The difference is that one side has not killed anyone yet and seems to be better prepared to not kill people but instead to harm stuff instead of people. There is usually more forgiveness given for that than for harming people. Surprising as that may be.

Again this is the moral argument. If you just go "well yes, but they aren't being selective enough" thats an argument you could make, but the sheer contrast between one side and the other is almost too much of a contradiction.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Kchama posted:

I did some actual reading, and it seems like everyone has been hit with the war premium increase, not just the US and UK.

I pointed out which ships were US/UK/Israel or not in the past month (which post-dates the war insurance premium increase, including the Chinese-owned ship being hit!), so your post seems to have very little to do with mine there.

Do you think that like, actuaries can see the future?

Well 1) Can you link the reading you've done and 2) Can you demonstrate the previous articles about cheaper premiums for Chinese shipping are false.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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So they are going up generally, but not as much for Chinese Shipping. So it could be the military escort, which I will note the US and UK are kind of doing by putting a load of ships and shooting rockets in the red sea, or it could be due to the targeting of specific shipping?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Rust Martialis posted:

No, you just don't like it.

The *best* construction that can be placed on the Houthi attacks on neutral ships is that they're accidents, errors, or based on bad information. Much like the USA bombing Afghani weddings were accidents, errors, or based on bad information.

The primary difference is the Houthi were *primarily* 'bombing weddings', at least back in December. Most of their attacks were on neutrals.

But keep pounding the table.

Not liking something because it's inaccurate and insulting because one side kills whole families and the other damages shipping. One kills people, the other inconveniences ships. This is why it's a bad comparison. It's like comparing theft to corporate murder.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Deteriorata posted:

That's classic whataboutism. What the Houthis are doing is wrong and should be stopped. It has no relation to anything anyone else is doing.

Yes, other people are doing wrong things, too and they should also stop. "But what about those guys" is not a defense.

I mean, yes it does. Even if it's only rhetorical cover, it clearly has a direct relation to something else that is happening.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Grip it and rip it posted:

There was another ship, according to the article that has provided fresh insights about the conflict.

Yeah I suppose the article does clarify that the Houthi have undertaken this very visibly ineffective effort in order to drum up the kind of legitimacy that they lack domestically.

It doesn't actually name the ship though. Do you have a link to it or some further info on the attack?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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RaffyTaffy posted:

The Sea Champion was attacked on its way into Aden about a week ago might be confusion about that one.

https://www.reuters.com/world/greek-ship-attacked-red-sea-by-houthis-arrives-aden-with-cargo-2024-02-20/

Thanks for the info!

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Grip it and rip it posted:

They're actually both very similar standpoints. The primary difference is that one absolves the Houthi for their purported efforts towards a legitimate goal, and the other holds them responsible for their actual conduct and the consequences of those actions.


If we are discussing "actual conduct" are we allowed to look at the actions of other belligerents such as the USA and UK? Should their actions of killing people matter more or less than attacks that have not killed people?

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Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Grip it and rip it posted:

But that old saying about two wrongs not making a right still holds true. Just because other people are doing worse things than you doesn't make your conduct any less bad.

If you believe that there is no efficacy in the actions of the belligerents from Yemen then that is fine, but you don't actually state that, you sate that your beliefs are "holding them responsible". But unless we consider the wider context of things it appears as if that responsibility is reserved for only some actors in this situation.

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