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Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
Since our last thread's more broken than the current geopolitical climate of the middle east, this is either an entirely temporary thread or definitely a temporary OP until someone more qualified and informed than I gets around to posting it. Barring either I'll see to updating this OP to something a lot more substantial- all suggestions are welcome the thread.

:justpost:

Some quick resources:
http://syriancivilwarmap.com/
http://syria.liveuamap.com/
http://iraq.liveuamap.com/
http://isis.liveuamap.com/
https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/

Previous Thread:
https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3390388&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=1

Previous thread titles:
Middle East Thread of Eternal Despair - As Close to a Just War

Bohemian Nights fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Jul 29, 2019

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Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

Al-Saqr posted:

Thanks rear end in a top hat, all that writing I did went to nothing.

Absolutely not! I just got tired of the thread being messed up. Whenever your OP is ready I can close this thread or replace the OP with yours, if that's what you want. Like sinteres said, you called dibs

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
The generally excellent Caspian Report has published a new video about the "geo-economics of Saudi Arabia’s NEOM project"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKgwm6WKhSg


Al-Saqr posted:

ok lol just giving you poo poo. It's good that you did this, I will write it up as soon as possible and let you know.

Haha, alright, cool! Better safe than bad vibes~

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
The BBC article makes it sound like some terrible dirty secret has been exposed, but idk, the news of a deal having been reached between the SDF and IS regarding their evacuation of the city on october 12th was discussed on twitter the day after the evacuation took place, and there's even an official statement from the SDF on the 14th, so:

http://sdf-press.com/en/2017/10/statement-to-public-opinion-5/

not extremely secretive

e: I even made a post about it lol

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3390388&pagenumber=3111&perpage=40#post477372239

Bohemian Nights fucked around with this message at 22:50 on Nov 13, 2017

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
With the fall of Rawa earlier today, IS has lost control of its last real city in Iraq. Now all that remains is to secure the Syrian border and

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

What could congress do about it, anyway?

Isn't their only real tool in these kind of situations the power of the purse?

No matter how much they'd theoretically oppose an increased US presence in the region, I don't see any scenario where they'd stop sending food and bullets and paychecks

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

Squalid posted:

That won’t be a very popular opinion itt.

Let's not pretend there's any thread zeitgeist except talking past eachother and constant ad hominems

https://twitter.com/DavidMWitty1/status/936218559738507264
"ISIS leader Baghdadi calls on his followers to gather in southern Libya in order to target neighboring countries to compensate for losses in Syria & Iraq. "

Libya just can't and appearently won't catch a break

Surely it's about time for Babghdadi to be declared dead again

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

Gstu posted:

Three podcasts that I listen to have given coverage to Yemen lately.

1) Citations Needed generally talks about how bad media coverage is on a particular topic or issue. Their Iran several weeks ago was insightful, and if you want to hear about how much of a conversation the US isn't having about Yemen right now, this gives some good info.

https://soundcloud.com/citationsneeded/episode-17-whitewashing-americas-role-in-yemen

2) Intercepted discusses (among other things) the recent report in NYT about Mohammed Bin Salman and the relationship of that with Yemen.

https://theintercept.com/2017/11/29/very-bad-men-trump-the-saudi-crown-prince-sexual-assaulters-and-robert-mugabe/

3) the always entertaining and sometimes informative Chapo Trap House gives a lot of coverage and analysis this week to the aforementioned NYT piece.

https://soundcloud.com/chapo-trap-house/episode-162-arab-spring-breakers-feat-gorka-112817


I figured since we have had a mostly Syria focused discussion or a while, if anyone wanted to refresh their brains on how terrible everything is just a little ways to the southeast of there, here's some info.

Thanks for this

I listened to the citations needed episode and it was very informative

e:

An older but interesting article from a cairo journalist that goes in depth about the conflict in Sinai

https://mondediplo.com/2014/09/05sinai

Bohemian Nights fucked around with this message at 12:12 on Dec 2, 2017

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
At this time I don't think Turkey and Iran feel at all threatened by each other, but I wouldn't go so far as to actually call them an alliance in any sense of the word

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
Haha, turns out that norwegian army dude who pissed off Turkey so much during that NATO exercise has a kurdish background

https://translate.google.com/transl...Erdogan-rasende

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
I suppose it's not at all surprising that iraqi kurdistan is struggling to pay wages and all that follows after they've lost their biggest source of income in Kirkuk

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
New Caspian Report on turkey's geopolitical objectives in europe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBGOPkwzMsw

e: it's probably a little rude of me to post the unlisted patreon video, but it'll be publically released in a few hours so whatever

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

Aliquid posted:

well this just goes off the loving rails

Haha, it sure goes command and conquer real fast in the hypothetical non-nato scenario, but I suppose otherwise it would be a very short video saying "Turkey is best served with the current status quo"

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

Ardennes posted:

Honestly, I know Caspian Report is really popular around here, but honestly, usually every video I have seen has been chock full of either wishful thinking, or in this case complete non-sense. Usually, the setup is done well and then the analysis is some type of free association.

This particular episode was probably the weakest i've seen from caspian report, and if turkey wasn't something we discussed all the time, I probably wouldn't have linked it either. I generally think Shirvan's analysis is good- like his stuff on Saudi Arabia has, as far as I know, mostly been on point (And I really recommend his Science in Islam historical series!)

Also in "here's" defense, I'm pretty sure I'm the only one who links these videos, so in theory I could also be the only actual fan of caspian report!

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
A good effortpost over on the civil war subreddit


"Collapse of Islamic State Media Production - Graphing Three Years of Islamic State Videos"

https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/7okw20/collapse_of_islamic_state_media_production/

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
https://twitter.com/watanisy/status/949930678300348416

SAA keeping up the breakneck pace with this weeks rapid advance northwards towards Sinjar

e: to illustrate

01.01


07.01



lollontee posted:

Now imagine those things mass produced and networked with independent targeting AI.

That was a good black mirror episode

Bohemian Nights fucked around with this message at 13:00 on Jan 7, 2018

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

Haystack posted:

Personally, I think that the proliferation of what is effectively cheap, easily manufactured, guided mortars is momentous enough without diving into Clancy territory.

gently caress, imagine what the IRA would have gotten up to with drone bombs.

Yeah I've long thought that we've been ridiculously lucky and long overdue in seeing any kind of armanent carrying drone used in a domestic terrorism situation


https://twitter.com/aronlund/status/950006103701643264
"A senior Western official told @ibrahimhamidi that the United States is planning to unveil a new strategy for the SDF-held areas of Syria, which may include some form of diplomatic recognition."

I wonder what this is all about

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

steinrokkan posted:

We have that already, it's called smart missiles / smart bombs / smart shells.

Those aren't readily available in produced or even improvised form to small groups or individuals, so I don't think you can really compare the incredible industrial output recquired for a smart missile to the circuit board and assembled plastic you need for a drone

Sinteres posted:

The conspiracy theory about MBS being a goon may have been confirmed:

https://twitter.com/swin24/status/950078625205932032

I knew paradox games in the wrong hands could lead to disastrous results

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

OctaMurk posted:

Uh, they have made the obvious atep. Or did you forget all those articles about ISIS using dozens of drones to drop mortars all the loving time during Mosul and Raqqa?

Yeah, it made a huge splash back when it first became a recurring thing. Producing improvised bomb dropping drones is a good example, adjacent to VBIEDS, of something that is actually completely obvious but has also impacted the tactical picture of the Iraqi-Syrian battlefield in a large way.

But that kind of drone is different from both the tiny kamikaze drone and especially the "smart drones" being discussed above.

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

Brother Friendship posted:


At some time in the past year there was a mass shooting (in the USA of course lmao) where the shooter was heavily armed so the police used a flying drone to get close to the guy and then it just detonated itself (I think, they didn't exactly release too much info

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/07/08/485262777/for-the-first-time-police-used-a-bomb-robot-to-kill

I believe you're thinking of this, which is another good example of a mostly untrained militia doing a little improvising by strapping a bigger bomb to their (on tracks) bomb robot

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

steinrokkan posted:

Can you at least quote the source?

You can find the images on the front page of the SCW subreddit right now but I really don't recommend it

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

Bip Roberts posted:

Turks are often cool tbqh.

Do you have a source for this??

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

mobby_6kl posted:

So, Afghanistan isn't doing that great, even by the standards of Afghanistan. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42843897

That's the fourth terrorist attack this year in Kabul alone. There's been over a dozen in total across all of Afghanistan :l

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
reposting this relevant lil gem
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31JNEVHZxO8&t=84s

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

Cat Mattress posted:

Pakistan doesn't need the USA anyway, since they have China. China is very glad for any US disinvestment from Asia in general and they have plans for Pakistan. See CPEC. You can denounce and sanction Pakistan all you want, they'll still have a great power propping them up regardless.

Incidentally China also has large investments in Afghanistan, so Pakistan having a degree of influence over afghanistan by way of the Taliban might not be completely undesirable (for them), although obviously china would likely prefer a stable, centralized afghanistan if it wants to actually see its investments pay dividends. A less volatile afghanistan is kind of a prerequisite for the CPEC to become a success, so in that respect, some kind of trilaterial trade relationship between afghanistan, pakistan and china might have a bigger chance of influencing the political situation in a positive manner than an everlasting military occupation.

That said, I wouldn't be entirely surprised if we start seeing the chinese sponsoring afghan security forces by way of arms and materiel in the near future, if they aren't doing it low-key already.

Bohemian Nights fucked around with this message at 18:49 on Jan 28, 2018

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
http://news.sol.org.tr/turkish-citizen-detained-criticising-afrin-offensive-bertolt-brechts-poem-174037

"Turkish citizen detained for criticising Afrin offensive with Bertolt Brecht's poem"

cool. cool cool cool. :l

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

lollontee posted:

Haven’t heard about YPG trying to force civilians to stay?? And if the civilians are leaving anyway, um... yeah.

Anyway, not running from a fight isn’t really imho the same as ”doing everything wrong in Afrin”, but that’s just me. Waging a fighting retreat in the face of a vastly superior force is how you’re supposed to do it though?

There's been a few posts like this in march, but mostly people seem to have been steadily evacuating so who knows

https://twitter.com/Acemal71/status/973178444057112576

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
https://twitter.com/DionNissenbaum/status/976672026151792640

a strange coincidence :thunk:

e:

Also, ex-prez Sarkozy sees this Kushner catastrophe and says hold my bière

http://www.france24.com/en/20180321-sarkozy-placed-under-formal-investigation-illegal-campaign-financing-libya-gaddafi

Bohemian Nights fucked around with this message at 06:59 on Mar 22, 2018

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

LeoMarr posted:

Lol so if we kill assad Nk willl retaliate

NK only really started gunning for those nukes back when it started becoming appearent that the US will invade at the drop of a hat, so kind of?

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
Russia just vetoed the security council resolution to send in a OPCW team to investigate the chemical attack, denying that any such attack even took place, so I guess now's about the time when real poo poo can start going down

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

lollontee posted:

I've been asking for other alternatives for the past 3 pages and all I've gotten is "do nothing". So go on, what's yours?

A strange game.

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
If I was the SAA/Russians and I knew the besieged rebels didn't have the fuel, spare parts, ammunition or technical know-how to maintain and operate these vehicles, I'd also sit on my hands and hope that one day they'd be recaptured rather than burn both old and new money by scrapping them by force.

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/status/1024621823143694338

With this I guess the major military ops in the south have basically come to a close.

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
Reading the backlog of (terrible) news out of Afghanistan, I kept seeing casualties reported as "commandos", which I assumed was just the term for Afghani special forces and turns out I was mostly right, but I was still confused as to why they seemed to always suffer such disproportional heavy casualties compared to conventional forces, but going back and reading some articles about the new afghan army*, I guess it makes sense.
To quote: "The country’s current number of 21,000 special operations troops, while set to grow soon, account for only 7 percent of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. But they do from 70 percent to 80 percent of the actual fighting."

It must be incredibly demoralizing for the rest of the under-equipped and under-trained army that these guys seem to be getting their asses kicked left and right.




*https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/20/world/asia/afghanistan-military-strategy.html

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry

Oh god, that thread again. It's such an indescribably depressing read :(

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
Speaking of liking Assad, seems like Syrian foreign relations are starting to normalize again in 2019

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2019/01/05/assads-long-road-to-international-rehabilitation/?utm_term=.ce305893ee22

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
I think It'd be cool if we could spend more time talking about the middle east than talking about other posters in this thread, because the latter never adds anything worthwhile, interesting or probably even accurate

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/25/world/asia/taliban-negotiator-afghanistan.html

Seems like there's a renewed effort in Qatar for peace talks between the US and Taliban

"Taliban officials and Western diplomats said Thursday that an agreement was imminent. They said that the two sides were finalizing a deal in which the Taliban would renounce ties to international terrorist groups and pledge that Afghanistan would not be used as a launching ground for attacks on the United States, as Al Qaeda did in 2001. In return, the Americans would declare a timetable for withdrawing their forces.

But on Friday, one person informed of the talks’ developments who spoke on the condition of anonymity suggested that major sticking points still remained, including demands that the Taliban declare a cease-fire and agree to meet with the Afghan government to negotiate their future role."

Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-06/trump-cancels-u-s-report-on-civilian-deaths-in-drone-strikes
"Trump Cancels U.S. Report on Civilian Deaths in Drone Strikes"

Well great. I guess all those pesky war crimes didn't look so good in the light of day

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Bohemian Nights
Jul 14, 2006

When I wake up,
I look into the mirror
I can see a clearer, vision
I should start living today
Clapping Larry
Can we maybe cool it with the strawmen and this strange competition in which we argue about who supports dictators the most 🙏

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