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Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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I think a lot of the older Tory contingent are dying off due to it being a chronological amount of time between 2017 and now, so I think more folks will willingly vote Labour. There is also a very odd, but somewhat understandable, impulse to go "Lets get rid of these folks since they didn't fix anything" when a party has been in power for a long time and the Tories have now been the ones in charge for almost a decade.

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Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Taear posted:

Brexit has infected too many people though and people will vote for the Tories specifically because they actually want no deal brexit.
I often feel like the centrist celebrities on twitter don't really understand the weird....lust for brexit that shitloads of people have.

Has it though? I'd love to see some data on it tbh.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Taear posted:

I'm not sure where you live but here around Manchester (which was remain, even) every loving person over the age of 60 is all in for it.
The recent survation poll (the one that asked loads of questions about brexit itself) seems to show that people are still broadly in favour of Brexit

I think being "broadly in favour" does kind of go up against it when things start getting tough, as they very well may do.

OwlFancier posted:

Not a fan of all this hope is a lie bollocks honestly.

This is a very valid response.

Taear posted:

I think "Project Fear" is the biggest part of why people don't care - it's been 3 years now and nothing has happened so people think it'll stay that way because they don't understand that things HAVE happened.

The problem is that fear can only do so much. It's part of the problem with cynicism when it comes to Politics and a problem with our media landscape.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Barry Foster posted:

I think spite will triumph over self interest in the black hearts of the olds

As usual

It depends, as most things do, as to how many older people are actually able to vote. The fact is that we are just as guilty here of going "They will always vote for Hard Brexit" as a lot of folks are for going "They won't let this happen".

Though I do think it would be interesting to analyse how much people believe in governance as merely a seperated out series of things run by "them" as opposed to a system built by people.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Borrovan posted:

Also factories have closed down & poo poo.

& still people call PROJECT FEAR when you say "look at this very real thing that has literally happened in reality"

Until it effects them it isn't going to be "real" everything feels dreamlike and unreal and has done for years, because we can increasingly see that the emperor has no clothes on, but because the emperor has stolen our ability to live in anything but empire we have no ability to talk about it other than to comment on it.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Barry Foster posted:

People just ain't no good.

I think the problem is the way in which it is difficult to think good things about folks when you don't think good things about yourself alongside a culture that now glorifies callousness in the name of profit and has begun to devour itself. Kindness is considered weird and threatening to so many folks, especially in media, because it is so antithetical to how they got ahead.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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I think the problem is that the service industry is not considered "real work" whilst also not giving actual results that are obvious to people.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Barry Foster posted:

Boris cosplaying Trump and using his strategy sounds mighty plausible, and I have a terrible feeling it's going to be mighty effective.

I don't see it myself. Not because of any innate goodness about the British character, but because there is only so much you can do having been in charge for so long and also having to cope with how many people seem to hate you.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Barry Foster posted:

Yeah, I thought there'd be a bit of a 'mission accomplished' feeling going on among the brexit gammonry, lowering turnout for the tories and leaving a gap for the people who fucken hate them, but you're right. poo poo.

The thing is that I think what Boris is doing may well fire up a lot of the Brexit lot. The problem is that they aren't so pivital in a lot of places as they would like to be. Once again I do have to point out that it's been 2 years of folks not being able to get on with their lives and/or many tory voters passing away.

The likelyhood is that a fair amount of the "shy" Tories will probably vote Lib-Dem and Boris being yet another slug in a suit isn't as appealing to a lot of folks in the North even if he promises Brexit till his lips bleed.

The idea that we should give up is seductive because it absolves us of failure. The idea of hope is a better one because it pushes us to be more than we are.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Vlex posted:

Do you not think election/referendum fatigue will be a force? Remainers may vote LD on the perception that they are more likely to revoke A50, and Leavers will definitely vote CON on the mantra of BREXIT NOW. I think people are sick and loving tired of everything and want a result as fast as possible, one way or another.

I doubt it, if only for the fact that a lot of folks seems pissed off on the whole "Johnson is being a poo poo about our rights" and the Lib-dem leader has been conspicuous by her absence.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Sanitary Naptime posted:

Hope owns, keep on bein you bugman, you’re the best

Happening status: sofuckingcloseicantasteit

I disagree, but thank you.

I think he's hosed it. The fact is that you have to appear to be confident if nothing else, and now Boris has shown he's nothing but air in a suit.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Sanitary Naptime posted:

I knew you would, but I’d do the same pal.

He really has hosed it, and it’s going to be enjoyable watching the media scrabble around trying to have him appear as strong. Honestly, unless he visibly shat himself I don’t see how he could have looked dumber doing that.

I think he wants folks to love him. I am not even joking in a twisted way I am sure that Boris is trying desperately to get everyone to love him. But he's finally happened into what he thought he wanted, and it isn't filling the hole inside of him.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Private Speech posted:

Am I remembering wrong or didn't Guido use to be vaguely leftish at one point, rather than the British equivalent of Drudge Report?

AHAHAHAHA. Oh dear Lord no.

He was anti-Murdoch for a bit I think?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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How is this not what the Rebels would want? Like they can go (in leave areas at least) "I stopped No Deal, Brexit could still happen but bullying from Johnson has led to this".

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Wow even The Times having a go at Cummings being an illiterate knob who seems to believe his own hype.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Grape posted:

Spoiler: They can.

You have a really low opinion on folks in the North.

Guavanaut posted:

The Virgin Sun Tzu and the Chad von Clausewitz.

I'd like it if people would actually quote recent books on politics and strategy, instead its all about The Prince for some reason. Personally I think that it's because rich fuckers who want to seem smart always hark back to someone saying, in essence, "Be an arsehole".

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Why are all these people in charge so utterly and completely poo poo at it?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Guavanaut posted:

Because we got tired of experts.

This seems to have been going on for years though. When did the folks who started believing the lies made up to justify greater personal power for the rich really start becoming the folks in charge?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Halisnacks posted:

Would it be over the top to say that Boris announcement had hints of Ceausescu’s final speech?

Hints yes, but the anger isn't as visceral just yet, but it does still feel very odd at the moment.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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TACD posted:

They’re not poo poo at it; from their point of view they’re extremely good at it. The people in charge are extremely good at lying and buying their way into positions of power and failing upwards until they graduate from a senior role into the Lords or a cushy speaking gig.

The problem is that what the democratic system incentivises and selects for (the best manipulator) is not what most people actually want (the best leader). It’s a real-world version of that computer program that’s supposed to evolve a mechanism for walking across a virtual room but instead discovers how to break the simulation to get the maximum score[/url]. It probably can’t be fixed unless we adjust the incentives so that politics is an underpaid, thankless, and uncelebrated profession, so it only attracts people who actually want to make positive changes in the world.

I think it is also something to do with the way many people think they want a strong leader. In actuality I think we need to accept that we can do more as a collective rather than just individuals. Also if you made politicians underpaid, thankless and uncelebrated you'd end up with actual rulership being taken over by another group much as we see in the USA.

OwlFancier posted:

When the golden boy goes away you're left with their dregs who only existed to prop up the big clever candidate, and then they all roll around in the poo poo trying to figure out who should be the best big clever candidate. Only none of them are because they weren't picked for being brilliant they were picked to do as they were told.

That does seem worryingly prescient, and I think also helps to illustrate why Neo-Liberal economic systems are starting to come apart. With greater access to peoples internal thoughts via things like twitter it is becoming increasingly obvious that there is no consistent intellectual power justifying people in charge being there. It's seeing the wizard without the curtain as it were.

BalloonFish posted:

They were formed and nurtured by the initial wave which dismantled the post-war consensus. Speaking purely in terms of effectiveness (not support!) the Thatcherites had to form their ideas, propose a solution to the problems in the country, become the ideological centre of the Conservative party, win an election and then radically overhaul society into the form they wished. They had to work towards something and achieve it.

Now it's all unraveling from all sorts of different directions and the party is stuffed full of people who had no part in writing the script but have just parroted the lines for 25+ years. Suddenly they're being forced to improvise and they're flailing. No one who is at the top got there by gritting it out or holding their beliefs against the consensus. They haven't had to work or fight for anything. They've never been really challenged, except by other neoliberals on the same career path.

That does seem worryingly accurate. Do you think any system can prevent this sort of ideological decay?

Beefeater1980 posted:

I’m 99% sure you are right about this. I believe that a lot of womanisers, which is one of Boris’s most visible flaws, are driven by extreme approval-seeking behaviour. The clownishness works for this too. It doesn’t stop him being a dangerous proto-fascist poo poo but it maybe does explain why he developed that way instead of, say, taking his privilege and becoming Tony Benn Mk.2

Mhm. Never having to do anything other than people please whilst also demanding pleasure from every single interaction. Boris is never going to be as powerful as he believes and is going to be manipulated by anyone who turns on the happiness spigot in his brain.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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AceOfFlames posted:

I said it before and I'll say it again: replace government with a computer. Even Samaritan would be better than what we have now.

Who programmes the computer?

As much as I can see the appeal it's humans all the way down AoF.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Barry Foster posted:

Surely the collapse/pantsing of the neoliberal consensus isn't something to be worried about, but to be celebrated though?

Also the 'please like me' underlying motivation is fairly plausible, and also, like that great Mark Fisher article points out, very likely a product of our psychotic boarding/private school system

Oh that I have no issue with. I just mean that if we, as Socialists, win we will need to not get so complacent either in our moral certainty or in our conviction about the systems we build continuing forever.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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AceOfFlames posted:

Unfortunately what will replace it is fascism followed by climate anarchy/more fascism.

I think this is again running to despair as an excuse to not feel bad if things go wrong.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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AceOfFlames posted:

Inaction is better than failure. Low expectations are better than disappointment. Loss aversion is better than risky victory.

These have been my mottos for the past decade. Terrible ones, painful ones but they have shielded me from even more pain than what I have now. Live your life in managed decline because that's how the world will go.

They have also shielded you from joy and the only reason they keep you safe from pain is because you have learned to live with the kind of pain you would prefer.

If you wish cowardice then do so, but do not pretend it expresses anything other than your own preference for failure.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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AoF I do hope you get help and a better therapists. Therapists are still people too and they often make mistakes, so the best we can do is work on ourselves and our communities alongside working with professionals.

Also I am somewhat glad that yet another master of the universe who is a wheels within wheels planner is just shown up to be a barely there pissant with the intellectual capacity of a dead pigeon.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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StarkingBarfish posted:

Bojo's hosed it lads.

It's really incredible how badly he's hosed it. I think it doesn't help that 1) Number 10 now leaks like a sieve, 2) He couldn't put up the appearence of competence and 3) Threats cannot work when no-one believes you.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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notaspy posted:

I know we are all excited at Boris making GBS threads the bed but if there was a GE he can still campaign on people v parliament and with what rhe EU just said he still has "i need a majority to force their hand".

And nothing that happens in parliament matters anymore, it's all about the bbc news, the papers, and twitter in that order.

The problem is that the more eyes on him that Boris has in an unfriendly environment (which means any environment that is not a settee in a TV studio) the worse he looks. Strength seems like the thing that every single Tory and Right wing person worships at the altar of, and Boris looks loving weak all the time.

It really is if a right wing news commentator became PM, because the only environment he can survive in is one where every agrees with him and laughs at his jokes.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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I really hope that we get a "No-deal is no longer possible" act through and can then go to the polls and bear witness as Johnson does what every other Tory has tried to do, which is win when you don't have the media in your corner all the time.

So used to playing on easy mode that you think you can handle anything.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Do people get the feeling that a lot of the Remain side is starting to win, even with the normal very pro-leave press? There is only so much spin people can but up with and I think we are reaching that point.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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mfcrocker posted:

Maybe this particular fight but certainly not the war. Even if A50 gets revoked, this particular cat isn't going back in the bag - it'll just lead to the Tory party getting entirely consumed by the Brexit party.

Oh I understand, but this battle feels more like an Austerlitz. It's a big showy win that can be used effectively and fundamentally demoralises your opponents.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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frumpykvetchbot posted:

how is it even possible that Mogg lived to adulthood.

He ate the people they sent him.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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This has been an okay day.

I hope that the stop No-Deal thing gets through Parliament, though I think from the looks of things it is quite likely.

I am going to tidy my room, try and make food and have a sit. Not feeling at my best, but I am glad folks here are doing well.

I thought a lot about happiness today, I don't know how to find it or wether I want/deserve it, but one thing I don't want to do is make folks uncomfortable/feel bad. Part of me worries I have done so even though my intentions aren't there. That people have been hurt by my indifference or my anger or me trying to be someone they'd like.

I dunno, it's been a funny old day. Keep safe.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Pochoclo posted:

Lol it's the first time I've seen Mogg getting everyone hostile on him, usually the Tories ate his poo poo right out his rear end

They're full on knives on each other it's great

Please, all it needs is one of them, just the one, to go "I am declaring a new Conservative Continuity Party" and they will just start eating each other.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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The Glumslinger posted:

"Why won't they listen to me? Don't they know that I'm better than them?"

This is what happens when "born to rule" crosses with "inability to rule".

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Noxville posted:

I... just... what the gently caress is wrong with these people

The other side is winning and this is their last desperate throw of the dice to make themselves look important.

Byt the other side I of course mean Labour party people who are not Blairites.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Hoey has already deselected herself, so she may well be gone in bit more than a month.

Did anyone else in particular end up doing that?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Delthalaz posted:

When will the Queen and her loyal supporters finally restore order and put an end to this failed “democratic” experiment? Send in the royal hussars and household cavalry and arrest these clowns.

Never. Because the last time they tried that the monarch ceased to be relevant in a very different way to how the queen is now.

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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This little lot are trying to say something for their own betterment and, once again, are loving it by not understanding what the hell is going on and believing they should be in charge due to their UNQUESTIONABLE MORAL PURITY.

Why is it that for people who claim to have no political morals the Blairites are so incensed that they are not in charge of anything?

Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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Yes, do this, try and deselect the speaker, bear witness as your own fuckery collapses on you, you ridiculously feckless sacks of distended hog rectum.

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Josef bugman
Nov 17, 2011

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HAHAHAHAHA

Get smoked you feckless sack's of poo poo!

28! TWENTY loving EIGHT!

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