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Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Rory Stewart jumping before he's pushed

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1180029820920569863

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Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
who was it earlier asking what toe curling meant with relation to cringe

https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1182187403135598592

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
lol the fuzz are systematically carrying off and arresting sit in XR types in the road at traf square, with each arrestee bring politely clapped. It's like free civil disobedience training

Doccykins fucked around with this message at 15:17 on Oct 10, 2019

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

ThomasPaine posted:

I really do wonder who the hell is still voting for them apart from senile olds and landlords. They're nakedly incompetent, corrupt sociopaths. They no longer represent actual mainstream Conservatism in any meaningful way. It's just odd. Which average wage earning, perhaps ignorant but not enthusiastically bigoted person is voting Tory? What do they offer? I understand apathy and just not voting, but taking the time to go to the polling station to elect a Tory? Baffling.

I suppose this is a question about liberal democracy itself - you would instinctively assume that left wing parties would naturally win under universal suffrage, because by definition the majority of the electorate are not elites and would gain more than they'd lose by voting for them. And yet it's obvious that this doesn't happen. Very very strange.

A few brainfarts over lunch -

There are a few reasons for it, most of which have to do with the vast majority of the population do not care about politics, so the limited information they do get is usually very carefully honed and then blasted out during an election campaign

- Being the incumbent MP helps. Being the incumbent Prime Minister helps more as the government apparatus is there to make you look more important on the campaign trail

- The turnout of the 2017 election was 69%; this was chalked up in previous elections to 'them all being the same' but Corbyn's Labour party were a significant departure and still one in three people eligible to cast a ballot didn't. This massively skews towards the 18-24 age group, who are more likely to be Labour voters, generally under the banner of 'my vote won't matter'

- Tradition being a Tory value - in contrast to the young not bothering people who have turned up and ticked the blue box for the last 4 decades will continue to do so without a second thought

- Mass media being owned by people the Conservative party enrichens and protects using misleading or false headlines to grab the attention for long enough to instill 'BORIS GOOD CORBYN BAD' into anyone glancing at the papers in the supermarket or leaving the telly on long enough after whatever they were watching from 9-10 to catch the news headlines

- Door knocking (especially in rural areas) and other tactics to try and make them seem 'the nice man in a suit' - I still remember getting a birthday card from the local conservative association on my 18th birthday and that poo poo sticks in your mind. This is why it's so important to get as many volunteers to get out and knock or leaflet for your candidate because most people aren't goons posting and reading every minute detail of Brexit and party politics. Seeing someone in a red/blue/yellow rosette the weekend before an election will stick in people's heads if they don't follow politics.

- Above reason as well is why there are a lot of right wing associated twitter bot armies constantly agreeing with each other or pushing seemingly unrelated talking points under every politician or journalist of note.

- Short pithy slogans stick better than fully fleged policies - note when the 2017 election was called pretty much every Tory rabbited the phrase 'Strong and Stable' one after the other in the last PMQs before dissolution. The election broadcasting rules and a tiny amount of scruitiny undid May's campaign because she doesn't actually have any personality whereas Cameron was much better at the 'deflect question, push soundbite, nod and move on' whenever he was near a camera

Edit: two more!

- People want to be on the winning team! Its pathetic but it's human nature (see above why being the incumbent is advantageous)

The Electoral Commission did a study after the 2017 election detailing a lot of issues with voter engagement and for the UK Parliamentary General Election the awareness is pretty high (but still not 100%) and leafleting is still the best way to engage potential voters - People remember leaflets! because they have to actively engage by moving them from the letterbox to the bin



https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/sites/default/files/pdf_file/Voting-in-2017-Final.pdf


mfcrocker posted:

Pidcock or RLB seem like the obvious options for me

Would also like to see Dawn Butler in the mix but she may not have enough cabinet level experience. RLB has always been the heir apparent at least to take over from McDonnell

Doccykins fucked around with this message at 13:44 on Oct 11, 2019

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

Bundy posted:

Am I missing some skeletons that should rule Thornberg out of the running for leader?

If you mean Emily Thornberry expect all the poo poo to come out about her being A Rich Not Socialist Why Isnt She Using Her Millions To Pay Tax / Build Schools / House Refugees (even more than it does now)

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Rees-Mogg has declined to make plans for a sitting on Saturday in the Business Statement, which mean they don't think they've got a deal to bring to the house and are stalling

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
the referendum amendment is likely to have an extension baked in to run it

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

Noxville posted:

So presumably Labour will vote against the deal but should it pass will seek to put it to a referendum?

It needs to be the other way round - if an amendment is attached to the deal in parliament Labour will likely vote for the deal (which makes it easier to sell respecting the result of the referendum to voters in the next general), if the amendment fails they'll vote against citing risks to jobs/NHS/privitisation

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

xtothez posted:

Bohnson needs about 30 MPs to change their MV2 vote from No to Aye. While some of the No votes from then are ERG / current front bench MP's who will change, it's also worth keeping in mind that quite a few of the 21 expelled MP's (like Hammond) voted Aye. They could well flip the other way if they still hate Boris enough.

edit: Gyimah is still voting No

https://twitter.com/SamGyimah/status/1185095692366336000

most of the ex-Tories that are still Independent have come out and said they're voting for the deal because the biggest concern to them was a no-deal Brexit. Live play-by-play spreadsheet is currently forecasting the deal passing on the backs of the Labour-for-a-deal lot
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ktqCioirDDTRnnWd-1WHuA-7mvjuA5C3rTTrYpZ7mkA/edit#gid=58425768

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
ERG now have two pieces of cover to vote for the deal, Francois is probably getting the affirmation now from Johnson that Baron's talking about in the first video

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1185166530490916872

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1185163156584304642

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Could be the dam breaking for Labour MPs in Leave constituencies
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1185230043766763520

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Some good thoughts on passing The Deal as long as the Letwin amendment is also passed:

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185233043491115015

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185233447993905153

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185234029265723392

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185234200133361666

https://twitter.com/Sime0nStylites/status/1185234337454841856

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
New Briefing Book for the revised deal is out, giving MPs a whole 18 hours to read, digest and understand it before they vote on it :hmmyes:

https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1185270078528512000

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1185539036263399424

Bribe time!

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1185550073192747010

Not bribey enough, amendment should pass

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Full voting results are out
https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/Divisions/Details/721

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

marktheando posted:

So did the government pull the vote so nothing was passed, or was the amended bill passed unopposed because the govt weren't there?

I've seen people saying both these things.

The original motion as on the order paper was:

quote:

That, in light of the new deal agreed with the European Union, which enables the
United Kingdom to respect the result of the referendum on its membership of the
European Union and to leave the European Union on 31 October with a deal, and for
the purposes of section 1(1)(a) of the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019 and
section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, this House approves the
negotiated withdrawal agreement titled Agreement on the withdrawal of the United
Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the
European Atomic Energy Community and the framework for the future relationship titled
Political Declaration setting out the framework for the future relationship between the
European Union and the United Kingdom that the United Kingdom has concluded with
the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, as well as a
Declaration by Her Majesty’s Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland concerning the operation of the Democratic consent in Northern Ireland
provision of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland, copies of these three documents
which were laid before this House on Saturday 19 October

with Amendment (a) submitted by Oliver Letwin which was

quote:

Line 3, leave out from “deal,” to end and add “this House has considered the matter
but withholds approval unless and until implementing legislation is passed.”

This passed after division with 322 for and 306 against

so the Motion itself became

quote:

That, in light of the new deal agreed with the European Union, which enables the
United Kingdom to respect the result of the referendum on its membership of the
European Union and to leave the European Union on 31 October with a deal, this House has considered the matter
but withholds approval unless and until implementing legislation is passed

which was passed without Division ([Speaker] "As many of that opinion say Aye" "AYE" "On the contrary no" [no response] "I think the ayes have it, the ayes have it")

The second motion on the order paper

quote:

That this House approves the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European
Union under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union on exit day, without a withdrawal
agreement as defined in section 20(1) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018.

Was then Not Moved by the whip leading to Points of Order and Adjournment thereafter

Order paper for reference: https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201920/cmagenda/OP191019.pdf

Doccykins fucked around with this message at 19:10 on Oct 19, 2019

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Reminder the only reason macron is president is because the alternative was marine le pen who is arguing she only lost because of this Charlie Hebdo front page

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/11/french-court-to-decide-on-marine-le-pen-steaming-excrement-case

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
bc they're a CFO and earn enough to make the Tory policies not matter to or more likely improve their net income op

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
I really don't get what Labour are playing at by not going for the election - once the extension is formally in place to prevent the October 31st crash out what are they waiting for?

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

ronya posted:

the polling looks bad and Labour is nervous

the polling was way worse in 2017 and they went for it then and cleared out May's majority, once purdah and broadcasting regulations come into place there's nothing to say a similar swing can't be achieved in the same time between election called and polling day

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

Bape Culture posted:

This country is mental

The wifes parents (factory worker, nurse) last night said they hate jez but like boris. Why?

How are poor people convinced by the lies of the rich so easily? They can’t name a single policy from either party but are so confident in their views. I don’t get it lol

have they paid off their reasonably priced mortgage from 1994 and started collecting retirement in the last 5 years but not needed any hospital care? Because if so then they have done very well at a personal level and will attribute that to the conservative government's affable rogue Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson who would have delivered Brexit for them if it wasn't for that dastardly UnElectable Jeremy The AntiSemite Corbyn

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
lol who was complaining earlier about Diane Abbott going quiet

https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1188844371598368770

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

Julio Cruz posted:


so it'd probably reduce trafficking from mainland Europe but it's not going to help Syrian refugees or working-class Chinese or anyone who can't easily access https://www.gov.uk/immigration to find out that they can get into the UK without needing to pay thousands to be smuggled in


lol that page 404s nice government great job

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

Julio Cruz posted:

I've no idea what the government page containing immigration rules and regs is (probably region-blocked so you can't access it outside the UK) but I'm entirely unsurprised that it's not where the logical place to put it would be

in defence of the government digital service it's https://www.gov.uk/apply-to-come-to-the-uk

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1188861424451366919

fIvE p CaRrIeR bAg ChArGe

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

jabby posted:

So on the day that the PM officially breaks his 'do or die', 'rather be dead in a ditch' promise, his bid for an election means there's absolutely nothing about it on BBC news. It's like it never happened.

tbf it was the top story on the 10 o clock, including the dead in a ditch quote

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
so did the handwringing about it being dark and students going back to gammonland evaporate overnight? Are they going for a government issued 12th or the lib dem/SNP date?

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
https://twitter.com/PARLYapp/status/1189229052890091520

16/17 voter amendment not selected, Corbyn's moving the election to 9th December is

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

you know lib dems are gonna find this and use it unironically in their campaign

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

Steve2911 posted:

Where's Bercow?

the bill was in committee stage so the speaker doesn't preside, after division he should return for the 3rd reading

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
lol great job everyone, simply fantastic

https://twitter.com/cath_haddon/status/1189275097397374977

e: burp the act itself stipulates the next May

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
There are PMQs today but expect every Tory to have had their Crosby chip updated to parrot whatever slogan they've been given as if they've come up with it themselves

Is there any specific fund/CLP you can donate to for a decapitation effort in Uxbridge or is that a bung to Momentum?

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
Top 70 Tory Targets (bold/grey cells are incumbent not standing, results are 2017 election outcome)





sourced from commons library: https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7979#fullreport

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

Lightning Knight posted:

The first statistic doesn't surprise me because it's a vague general idea that they probably feel will mostly affect others but the bolded one is wild.


its probably because they're actually retired so FULL BREXIT AHEAD

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
123,000 people registered to vote yesterday, ~90k of them were under 35
https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

Borrovan posted:


I just happen to like roses is all (is something I've already said once today)

just supporting the England team for the rugby world cup final on Saturday, why do you hate England?

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
amazing

https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1189515646180188160

Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Did Corbyn choose this particularly.. vibrant.. green tie to goad the tories into doing exactly this?

almost certainly, it's the same green as the Grenfell remembrance campaign

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Doccykins
Feb 21, 2006
well that's the Crosby chip booting up

"back brexit, back britain, back boris"

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