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haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Slowpoke! posted:

Would the Senate need 51 or 60 votes to admit Puerto Rico? Because I don’t see it getting to 60 without a lot of work, but 51 would be easy if we can keep up momentum in 2020 and 2022.

The Constitution does not specify a required level of Congressional approval so it's 60 with the filibuster, 51 without. Perhaps significantly, it's also only up to Congress, the president and other states do not have a role.

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haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Why do we assume predictit has special insight or is even rational in aggregate

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Yeah, the question is not whether the party will abandon him, the question is how much brain functionality can he lose before he can no longer effectively maintain his cult of personality.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Forrest on Fire posted:

Foghorn Leghorn was actually based on a senator from a 1940s radio show, so this seems to be pretty standard for American pols.

To be clear, he was based on an exaggerated parody of a senator from a 1940s radio show, not an actual Senator.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Gatts posted:

repeal their appointments

Unfortunately the Constitution is very clear on this, it lays out specific and limited conditions under which lifetime appointments may be ended and the appointing president is not allowed to be a consideration. It's court packing at every level or nothing.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

actionjackson posted:

I assume he must have some dirt on other Fox News people to be able to say this on air and not lose his job

Shepard Smith entrusted his insurance repository to Napolitano on the way out the door

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Not only does everyone know that, it's a minuscule amount compared to the corporate tax cut and the other meddling that doesn't move money outside the federal government.

I mean, yeah, it's bad, but in terms of damage to America it's not the real problem.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Per Wikipedia there are 870 judgeships that are appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate, including the 9 SCOTUS seats.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

SchrodingersCat posted:

It really does work, James Earl Ray had three first names. The potential for evil rises exponentially with each name.

Sirhan Sirhan has the same first name, twice.

John Roberts, the biggest threat to the country right now, has arbitrarily many first names since one is an indefinite plural

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

"He’s presidenting" needs to be the title of either this or the USPOL thread stat

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

bird food bathtub posted:

Really looking forward to watching McTurtle ratfuck this process. Dude gives not the slightest gently caress about laws, decorum, the constitution...nothing. So I'm horrified and morbidly curious about how he's going to weaponize this and dick over the country. He's astonished me multiple times in my life how little he cares about anything that isn't raw power, so I'm at a loss for what devious poo poo he's gonna pull.

The main thing constraining McConnell at this point is that he has to get the other Senators to sign their names to whatever he wants to do, and how willing they are to play along depends on how their local bases would react.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Angry_Ed posted:

And also all of the judges he appointed etc. etc.

Sadly it's not that easy, though I maintain, jokingly, that since the Constitution doesn't explicitly say we can't completely undo a presidency that we might as well try.

The Constitution gives us the tools, if we can take 2/3 of both houses. You can impeach any appointed federal officer, including judges/justices. Court packing gets all the press because you only need a simple majority in both (and the presidency).

The consequences of doing a few rounds of mass show impeachments for blatantly political reasons are left as an exercise for the reader.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

GutBomb posted:

I don’t read comic books or watch kids movies. What the gently caress is a Thanos and a tony snap?

There is no way to answer this without several paragraphs of dumb nerd poo poo so just leave it at "a pop culture reference that does not mean at all what they appear to believe it means"

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

idiotsavant posted:

No, Ken Starr went on a pretty insane "investigatory" spree with a shitload of power granted to him by Congress. You might remember that the big gotcha moment was from Clinton actually *testifying* and fibbing about his relationship with Lewinsky. No loving way is anyone sane going to let Trump ever get within passing distance of giving testimony.

edit: Clinton impeachment was more along the lines of Benghazi or Her Emails (keep digging and digging until you find the tiniest shred of anything) than the current impeachment

He then published his entire multi hundred page report to the general public, it was a big media launch event and printed copies showed up in bookstores. Everyone wanted to read the explicit parts.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Rauros posted:

He's a baptist preacher, so jesus has taken the wheel of his deductive reasoning faculties.

Sticker on the back of his chair: "In case of Democrats wielding power, this vehicle will be unmanned"

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

bird food bathtub posted:

Former President SS coverage is for national security purposes. Don't want the guy who used to know all that stuff getting kidnapped or something. So assuming the universe is not a kind place and the fat mother fucker doesn't stroke out and die before he's a former president, yes he'd get the protection. He would not be the president though, so any other president could tell him to pound sand up his rear end instead of getting multimillion dollar contracts to his own hotels.

Whenever Trump stays at his own properties, have the SS stay at someone else's nearby. Every morning they come over and take up all the parking spaces, clog the hallways, etc without spending any money.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Google Butt posted:

When do they actually vote

Some time this evening, there is no exact timetable.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

CyberPingu posted:

So wtf does impeachment actually mean/do it the Senate can just squash it.

Practically? Nothing. It's effectively censure writ large. All it really does is compel the Senate to act on it.

The Senate can squash it, but they can't squash it quietly. This is widely expected to happen so no one is going to be surprised or disappointed when it does.

The point of it is that there are a number of Senators - it's unclear just how many, but probably more than the Republican advantage in the Senate right now - who lose politically by the House forcing things to this point. A vote, any vote, on whether or not to keep Trump in office in no uncertain terms will have consequences in the 2020 election, as will the verdict rendered by the Senate as a whole. If they ditch him, their own voters and Trump will be furious, and that translates into at best depressed Republican turnout and at worst getting primaried. If they keep him, the Democratic base will be even more furious and that translates into Democratic votes in the general.

Plus, it'll make Trump mad as hell that his administration has now been permanently marked as one that got impeached, and that's always good for some comedy.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

eke out posted:

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1207714546049323008

based on how angry this concept seems to be making them, i'm willing to say that it might be good

Trump is going to demand that the Senate pass a resolution affirming his innocence, which the House will use to even more firmly commit to their position of not sending the articles until an impartial trial can be guaranteed. I'm not sure if this is the brightest or dumbest political strategy I've ever seen.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Meatball posted:

Trump is *freaking out*.

This is wonderful news!

But is he ~fuming~?

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

chaos reigns

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

SpeakSlow posted:

So, is there a possibility of the House stacking impeachment articles before sending them to the Senate? Say, for the sake of example, the House has 2-3 impeachable offenses before the Senate gets to start?

And what do you think the pressure on the Senate would do, politically, if this happened?

The pressure on the Senate would not be meaningfully different from what it is today without a black swan event. More crimes on the list wouldn't change the current acquittal plan.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Responsible media won't confirm if they have the right name so it's going to be difficult to know for sure, especially if you don't read rightosphere primary sources at all.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
There is no mechanism whatsoever for delaying or canceling a US federal election. That will not become a serious possibility without a massive disruption to day-to-day life throughout the country which would mean we all have much bigger problems anyway.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

When McGhan comes back and the result is " yes you must testify, but lol the election already took place and impeachment is over" whats the loving point?

The point would be that in a few administrations when this sort of thing happens again, they can immediately point to the McGhan case instead of having to spend even more months in appeals.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
You really can't imagine a time when the president holds the moral high ground and congress is the one making up bullshit investigations just to obstruct and waste everyone's time? I know we joke about Trump Time but the previous administration really wasn't that long ago.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Arcsquad12 posted:

Question: if Bitch Turtle McDonald's acquits Trump on the two articles drafted against him, what's to stop the House from bringing forward more articles and impeaching him again? Legally speaking, I know that the Democrats could view one failure as reason to not try and impeach him a second time.

Nothing, beyond the fact that a) this has never happened before in US history and b) by the time it becomes clear this is necessary we will probably be close enough to the election that no one is willing to keep pushing.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
It's Trump's trial. If you think Hunter committed a crime, open a separate investigation for him. But first try to reconcile your desire for that with the fact that that is exactly, exactly what Trump wants to happen and what he is literally on trial for for trying to make happen right now.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

empty whippet box posted:

Crimes aren't crimes. Actually, crimes are not-crimes. Therefore, you must acquit. Because my client committed not-crimes. Thank you.

It depends on what the meaning of the word "crimes" is

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

eke out posted:

no kidding. but there's a version of this trial where you have both the Trump People arguing this is an insane conspiracy hoax, and then the White House People arguing more legal and procedural issues, where the facade of neutrality benefits them.

It just turns out, instead, they're all just insane trump people

The sane people have had three years to run for the hills door

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

plogo posted:

I'm a bit confused as to how the republicans can pass McConnell's rules without breaking the filibuster. At the very least, why isn't this more of a talking point for dems?

The filibuster at this point only applies to legislation, adopting the rules for impeachment and other internal Senate business is a simple majority vote.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Ershalim posted:

That's not really a thing for modern GOP orthodoxy. They don't really have to do anything to secure their legacy because they're already venerated as war heroes against the pink and rainbow tide. Since Reagan left office as a drooling bobble head, it became pretty clear to everyone that the culture war needed symbols, not actors. FOX learned this lesson and started lionizing every member of the GOP who held the line, regardless of anything else they may have done (pedophilia, gay scandals, abortions, thievery, treason, whatever) except in cases where they showed disloyalty to The Party (that is, FOX itself and the current leadership).

Collins will probably get the McCain treatment if she continues to be a Good Girl and stop at being "concerned." Part of that is that she's got so many friends in the news because she's always yacking about her fake morals to them, but the biggest part is that reality doesn't matter to the right wing orthodoxy.

In terms of impeachment, I haven't been able to follow along much. Did the vote for no witnesses go through? Does that mean they're going to revisit it after the 3 day deliberation period or ... what? Just like, "nah, we don't need evidence."?

All of this only happens if she remains useful (in office). If she gets turfed for six years she can't give them anything.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

oxsnard posted:

I know Trump is a completely different animal but they turned on GWB really loving fast

Do you think Trump is going to ghost the political world, remain quiet for a few years, stay out of every controversy, and then reappear as a subdued, humble painter?

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Scipiotik posted:

He can try, but he's not a real judge. And the co-conspirators can tell him to pound sand and ignore his rulings anyway.

Plus the judge is on the side of the majority of the jury

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Suddenly that basement locked filing cabinet labeled "beware of the leopard" doesn't seem like such a bad idea

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

PIZZA.BAT posted:

They would definitely stagger it so that Pence has time to name a VP which would then replace him if the GOP felt it was going to come to that.

As per the 25th Amendment (the boring part that isn't about the President dying or going nuts) a replacement VP has to be confirmed by both houses, so that would be a fun fight.

haveblue fucked around with this message at 21:54 on Jan 28, 2020

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

abigserve posted:

This is astonishing to me, literally since the story first broke as I've been following it:

- Trump was not soliciting political favors on that phone call. It was a perfect call.
- Ok, sure, maybe he was soliciting personal favors on that phone call, but there is no evidence he was pressuring Ukraine.
- Ok, yes, we can accept that he was pressuring ukraine, but there is no evidence that he was actively withholding aid to that end.
- Look, sure, we have already accepted that he was actively withholding aid to increase pressure on Ukraine to solicit personal political favors. Wait, that's what this is all about?

edit;

- he didn't do it
- ok he did it but it wasn't that bad
- ok yeah he did it and it was exactly as bad as it sounded but this is ok

Yeah, the defense has always been "This is bad but doesn't rise to the level of high crimes and misdemeanors" which has only become more and more insane as more details are revealed.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

Lemming posted:

The crimes tweet but Bolton

I gotta say, my single favorite linguistic evolution of the past few years has been how "crime" became both a generic noun and a verb

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

mcmagic posted:

Isn't a 50-50 vote up to Pence, not him?

If it were normal Senate business, yes, but the chief justice effectively replaces him for anything related to an impeachment trial, including the tiebreaking duty.

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haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal

An insane mind posted:

Aren't most Republican senators also some form of lawyer? Are they just barely holding party discipline or are we in here overstating how stupid the WH council has been?

Your sense of professional pride is one of the first things to be killed once you enter the Republican mental space, especially with Trump around.

Also remember that there is no better defense they could be mounting, the surprise is not that they're putting up with this poo poo but that they found anyone willing to stand up and spout it.

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